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000
FXUS64 KMRX 250708
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
308 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...
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Dry westerly flow aloft with PWs
less than 1 inch through the period. Satellite shows a good deal
of high and some mid-level clouds moving across the Tennessee
Valley. These clouds will produce partly sunny conditions this
morning, but model soundings shows the higher level moisture
moving out this afternoon/evening.

Surface ridging will also be the main feature with low dewpoints
advecting into the region allowing temperatures to drop into the
50s Sunday night.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday night)...An upper level
trough will move across the Ohio Valley...keeping NW flow over the
area through the middle of the work week. Sunny skies and cooler
than normal temperatures will be present Monday through Tuesday. A
weak boundary will approach the area on Tuesday. Models are
showing plenty of dry air throughout the sounding...but there is
weak divergence aloft provided by the jet streak in the upper
levels. With the lack of moisture...confidence is low on seeing
anything other than very light scattered showers...if
any...Tuesday afternoon. Wednesday looks dry as high pressure
develops and begins to move eastward.

By Wednesday evening...low and mid level flow has transitioned to
out of the SW...bringing moisture and warm air advection to the
area. By Thursday afternoon...diurnal showers and thunderstorms are
possible...mainly in areas south of I40 where the best moisture and
warm air advection will be located. Friday...the entire area will
have a chance for diurnal showers and thunderstorms. Wind profile is
weak...so any threats in the storms would include damaging wind and
large hail. But for now...no severe weather is expected. A front
approaches the area for the end of the work week...so have left in
scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front Saturday
through Saturday night.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN             84  60  83  59 /   0   0   0  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  82  58  80  57 /   0   0   0  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       82  57  80  56 /   0   0   0  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              79  53  77  53 /   0   0  10  10
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&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$