Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 010813 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 413 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
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JET DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET IS PRODUCING DIFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. AIRMASS IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...BUT QUITE MOIST HELPING TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH CONVECTION COMING TO AN END. BY THIS AFTERNOON...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AIRMASS DRYING OUT SOME ALLOWING SKY COVER TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. PLENTY OF DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWING AIRMASS TO BECOME FAIRLY UNSTABLE WITH CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...LIMITED FORCING TO KEEP COVERAGE TO ONLY SCATTERED IN NATURE. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE OVER THE REGION AS A SERIES OF JET STREAKS MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THESE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JETS WILL ENHANCE THE FRONTO-GENETIC FORCING OVER THE AREA. SINCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER FLOW...TRAINING OF CELLS IS POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING POSSIBLE. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... A SURFACE LOW JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT JUST PASSED THROUGH WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE COAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AS LINGERING MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MID MS AND OHIO VALLEYS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF ARE BECOMING MORE IN AGREEMENT OF DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING IN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S EARLY THURSDAY AND A FEW DEGREES COLDER FRIDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S MOUNTAINS AND 60S LOWER ELEVATIONS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING DOWN FROM THE NW WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SMOKIES THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW. A SURFACE LOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND THE COUNTER CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND IT WILL KEEP SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST PARTS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST LATE SATURDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS MORE SUN SHINES OVER THOSE AREAS.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 84 63 78 59 / 50 40 70 70 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 81 63 77 59 / 40 50 70 70 OAK RIDGE, TN 82 63 76 58 / 50 50 70 70 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 80 59 77 57 / 60 50 70 80
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$

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