Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 281913 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 313 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...PESKY LAST REMNANTS OF LOW CLOUDS FINALLY DISSIPATED THIS AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO CLEAR SKIES. DEW POINT TEMPS HAD DIPPED INTO THE TEENS WITH NEAR CALM WINDS FOR TONIGHT...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION BY 06Z TO 12Z SUNDAY. FREEZE WARNING RIGHT ON TRACK AND WAS UPDATED EARLIER. EXPECTING A GOOD RECOVERY OF TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS S-SW LOW LEVEL FLOW QUICKLY RETURNS. ALONG WITH THE SW FLOW... CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARRIVE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...SUCH THAT THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS ACTUALLY OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT MILDER MIN TEMPS WILL BE THE RULE...AND COULD BE EVEN MILDER THAN THE GFS MOS MINS (WHICH I CLOSELY FOLLOWED OVER THE COOLER NAM MOS). THIS MEANS ALL RAIN SHOWERS. ENDED THE SHOWERS FASTER ON MONDAY MORNING BUT DID ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE CLEARING SKIES ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE 50S AND 60S IN THE AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...BASICALLY STAYING WITH SOME FORECAST CONTINUITY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BRINGING A RATHER SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO POINTS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY IN A WARMING LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE INCREASES THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD BE STRENGTHENING DECENTLY BY FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A HEALTHY COLD FRONT. THE FRONT MAY CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY BROAD BRUSHED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE PLEASANT WARMING TREND IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE WEEK WITH HIGHS POPPING INTO THE 70S UNTIL SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 27 59 49 67 / 0 10 70 40 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 24 57 44 63 / 0 10 70 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 23 58 42 65 / 0 10 70 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 17 53 38 62 / 0 10 70 40 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY. TN...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY- CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON- HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS- MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN- SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN- WEST POLK. VA...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON. && $$ TG

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