Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 251846 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 246 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 .Short term (tonight and tomorrow)...
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A few showers have developed in the Plateau...but convection is having a hard time developing elsewhere in the CWA. For the evening...will carry just a slight chance pop in the northern Plateau before midnight. The storms farther west in KY and West TN are likly to dissipate before reaching our area. Tomorrow...we may have a little better chance of showers and storms as dewpoints will be a little higher and midlevel lapse rates are slightly steeper. NAM forecast soundings show an inversion at TYS and CHA that should act as a cap...but it is weaker at TRI. The GFS puts out more QPF and has higher pops than the NAM and SREF...but seems overdone given the lack of forcing and limited moisture. Stability parameters favor the mountains and northern sections for convective development. Thus will lean toward the NAM/SREF and keep southern and central sections dry tomorrow...with low to slight chance pops north and in the terrain areas. Temperatures will continue their upward trend...with highs in the mid to upper 80s in the Valley. .Long term (Thursday night through Wednesday)... A ridge of high pressure centered off the east coast will be the dominant weather feature into the weekend. Beneath this ridge...increasing low level moisture and diurnal heating will allowing isolated to scattered convection to develop each period with best chances during the late afternoon and evening. We will also be watching an area of low pressure just off shore. Model consistency has been poor with the track of this feature and depending on if and where it moves onshore...it could effect our weather...increasing cloud cover and the chance of convection. The most likely time frame for this feature to move in will be around Sunday or Monday. Through the rest of the extended...will remain in an unsettle weather pattern as a series of short waves track across the region for a chance of shower and thunderstorm activity each period.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 88 67 88 / 10 10 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 86 65 85 / 10 10 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 64 85 65 85 / 10 10 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 85 62 84 / 10 10 20 20
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ DGS/MJB

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