Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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645
FXUS64 KMRX 270701
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
301 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...WILL BE IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION.  A WEAKENING...BROKEN
LINE OF CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING.  THE REMNANTS OF THIS LINE IS MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER.   HOWEVER...ANOTHER BAND OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
AIR MASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE...THOUGH CAPE IS LIMITED AND UPPER
SUPPORT IS WEAK.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG OR
POSSIBLY SEVERE PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
FOR THE MOST PART AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS OK AT BEST. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS A BIT BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  THE WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH AND WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST BY LATE THURSDAY
OR EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SOME DRYING. WILL KEEP MENTION
OF POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE HWO FOR THURSDAY. NAM IS
AN OUTLIER IN SHOWING VERY LITTLE DRYING AND A RETURN OF PRECIP BY
FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS/ENSEMBLES
WILL GO DRY FRIDAY. BY THE WEEKEND MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ALOFT AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE AFFECTING THE
REGION.  WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND AT TIMES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
NOT HAVE CLEARED THE AREA. FORECAST FOR TUESDAY RATHER UNCERTAIN AS
IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT.
FOR NOW WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             85  66  86  59 /  30  40  30  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  82  63  84  59 /  40  50  40  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       82  63  84  58 /  40  60  40  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              80  59  82  54 /  50  60  50  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MJB/LW



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