Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMRX 230753
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
353 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...MOISTURE FROM WEAK UPPER
LOW TO THE SW OVER LOWER MS VALLEY WILL GET SHUNTED SOUTH TODAY AS
BROAD NORTHEAST US TROUGH DIGS SOUTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWING LARGE AREA OF
STORMS FROM NORTHERN IL EAST INTO LAKE ERIE AND SOUTHERN CANADA
THIS MORNING. A FEW CLOUDS WERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING IN KNOX AND GRAINGER COUNTIES. SKIES
WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY BUT CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND LINGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS THURSDAY MORNING DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS
MAY BE COME STRONG WITH DAMAGING WIND POSSIBLE LATE TODAY INTO THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AGAIN
TODAY. TONIGHT THE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN HIGH AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
THE MORNING AND POSSIBLY ONLY A FEW BREAKS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...LITTLE CHANGE TO
CURRENT FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA AND A NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND COOL
AIR MASS FOR FRIDAY. SOME MODERATION WILL OCCUR SATURDAY WHEN THE
HIGH MOVES EAST...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL. A
CLOSED LOW DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY...PRODUCING
FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND PUSHING ANOTHER FRONT TOWARD THE AREA FROM
THE NW. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL RAMP UP ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR AREA
TUESDAY...WITH COOL AND DRY HIGH DROPPING OUT OF CANADA PROVIDING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             89  70  86  67 /  50  50  50  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  88  69  84  65 /  50  60  60  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       89  69  83  64 /  50  70  50  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              89  67  81  60 /  50  70  60  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD/SON



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