Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 290920 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 420 AM EST MON DEC 29 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND COLD FRONT HAS HELPED TO DISSIPATE AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND LIFT CLOUD LAYER SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER...STILL AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE NOTED UPSTREAM ON AREA RADARS. BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED LATER TODAY AS WELL. NUDGED RAIN CHANCES UP FOR TODAY ESPECIALLY OVER ERN AREAS...NE TN AND SW VA. MOISTURE UP TO AT LEAST 700 MBS LINGERS UP TO AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMES MORE SHALLOW OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING CLOUDS TO HOLD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...SO KEPT MIN TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOW RAIN CHANCES IN THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EARLY TUESDAY COULD SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN PARTS OF NE TN AND SW VA TUESDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE DRY AND COLD AIR MASS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL BEGIN CLEARING BY EARLY TUESDAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TUESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE TUESDAY. BUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DAYS WILL BE BE BELOW NORMAL AS COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. MODELS STILL NOT SURE ON TIMING WITH NEXT SYSTEM. GFS AND CANADIAN WANTS TO BRING MOISTURE IN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ECMWF SLOWING SYSTEM TO MOISTEN ATMOSPHERE FRIDAY. SOME SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN COULD AFFECT THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THE SLOWER ECMWF WOULD LIKELY START PRECIPITATION LATER FRIDAY WHICH WOULD LIKELY ALLOW ENOUGH WARMING FOR IT TO BEGIN AS RAIN. STRONG SW FLOW TO GET GOING FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE FROM THE TX GULF COAST MOVES NE TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY. MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE FRONT WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND RAIN OVER THE TN VALLEY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE SE STATES. TEMPERATURES STAY COOL FRIDAY AS SKIES BECOME CLOUDY AND THEN WARM INTO THE 50S FOR THE WEEKEND AS WARMER AIR MOVES UP FROM THE GULF COAST WITH THE FRONT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 51 39 50 30 / 40 20 10 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 49 37 47 27 / 60 30 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 47 36 47 27 / 30 30 10 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 47 37 44 24 / 70 40 10 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ TG/TD

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