Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 250645 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 245 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)...Weak frontal boundary will be near our southern border today. This boundary may be enough to trigger a few showers and thunderstorms mainly south, although model soundings look weakly capped over most of the area. Will carry slight chance PoPs south for this afternoon. Should be dry overnight tonight with a mostly clear sky. Temperatures today will be rather hot, but humidity levels will not be as high especially north/central. Will not stray from from MAV temps. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)...The extended will begin with continued hot and humid conditions. Low level moisture will be in place and this with the strong diurnal heating will allow isolated convection to develop over higher elevations and some southern locations for Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Models in rather poor agreement with timing of an approaching frontal boundary around the Thursday/Friday time frame. The NAM is a bit faster...bringing the boundary in late Thursday into Thursday evening while the GFS and ECMWF moves it in late Thursday night into Friday. This feature should provide our area with the best chance of organized thunderstorms throughout the extended. Will continue with change pops on Thursday but trend towards the slower solution with higher pops into Friday. By Saturday and Sunday...the front should have exited the region with surface high pressure building in. This will allow for a bit cooler weekend with a chance of normal summertime diurnal convection. A weak short wave may push into the area on Monday...bringing an increased chance of convection into the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 94 74 93 74 / 20 10 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 92 70 90 70 / 10 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 93 70 90 70 / 10 10 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 90 63 89 67 / 10 0 10 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ LW/MJB

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