Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 301842 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 242 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES IN PLACE SUPPORTING MOCLR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS... ANOTHER GOOD RADIATIONAL NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE TN VALLEY REGION WITH AT LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR AND AROUND BODIES OF WATER... MAINLY DURING THE 06Z-15Z TIME FRAME. MAY NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THIS MORNING THOUGH...WITH SOME SCT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO RIDE OVER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES. LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTING MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TONIGHT STILL IN LINE AND WILL LEAN ACCORDINGLY. CONTINUANCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES WED THRU WED NIGHT WILL PROVIDE FOR MOCLR SKIES. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S SW VA TO MID 80S LOWER TN VALLEY REGION. LOWS WED NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S SW VA TO LOWER 60S LOWER TN VALLEY REGION. EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON THU AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER S CNTRL CANADA DEEPENS WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD TO A SFC LOW ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUT THE TN VALLEY REGION IN A WAA PATTERN WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. SYSTEM MIGHT BE A LITTLE SLOWER MOVING IN THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...AND HAVE TAILORED WX AND EXPECTED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH LOWS GENERALLY SPANNING THE 60S. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...LOOKS LIKE THE BRUNT OF SHWR AND SCT TSTM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR ON FRI AS FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION WITH TEMPS MORE IN THE LINE WITH SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES. MAYBE SOME EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ON FRI NIGHT...OTHERWISE EXPECT GENERALLY DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES FROM THE ROCKIES BUILDING INTO THE MID STATE THRU THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH THE TN RIVER VALLEY ON MON BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHWRS AGAIN TO THE AREA WITH RIDGING INFLUENCES AGAIN BUILDING INTO THE VALLEY BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES FROM THE WEEKEND THRU THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 59 86 63 85 66 / 0 0 0 10 60 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 57 83 60 85 64 / 0 0 0 10 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 56 84 60 84 64 / 0 0 0 10 60 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 50 82 52 83 58 / 0 0 0 10 30
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ JBW/OHX

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