Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 061919 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 319 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016 .SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)...
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THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW IS SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES HAVE PUSHED TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 50S AND 60S AS OF 3 PM. THESE VALUES ARE AROUND 5-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WHEN THE AREA WAS DIRECTLY UNDER THE CLOSED UPPER LOW. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY HAS A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP ACROSS NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. THESE SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING DUE TO THE CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE BEHIND THE EXITING CLOSED UPPER LOW. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE LIGHT AND WILL NOT LAST MORE THAN A FEW MINUTES. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT EXPERIENCE ENOUGH PRECIPITATION TO MEASURE. FOR TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW CONTINUES ITS SLOW DEPARTURE TO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TOMORROW WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL WARM WELL IN THE 70S OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH LOW 80S POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL VALLEY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. DUE TO THIS...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA LATE IN THE DAY BUT EXPECT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. .LONG TERM(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... OVERALL...WILL BE IN AN UNSETTLE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR TO SLIGHT ABOVE NORMS. THROUGH MONDAY...A FRONT STALLED TO OUR NORTH WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL CONVECTION AS SHORT WAVES RIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THROUGH THIS PERIOD...THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE OVER NORTHERN LOCATIONS. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WILL SEE A SERIES OF FRONTS/SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH PERIOD. CHANCES DECREASE BY FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEMS BEGIN TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 49 82 59 85 / 0 0 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 48 80 58 81 / 0 10 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 48 80 58 81 / 0 10 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 45 75 56 76 / 10 20 30 30
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ MA/MJB

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