Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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809 FXUS64 KMRX 240711 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 311 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 .SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...Early this morning, patchy fog expected, especially across southeast Tennessee and southwest North Carooina where recent rains occurred. For today and tonight, weak upper trough over the Gulf coast states will retro-grade west allowing ridging to build into the area with mid-level temperatures warming. The sinking motion around the ridge/warming mid-level temperatures will suppress convection development. An isolated storm possible across the southern Plateau this afternon, but overall dry conditions. Another day of unseasonably warm temperatures. The relatively dry ground and plenty of insolation will allow tempeatures to warm above guidance. .LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...Long term forecast beginning to feel like a broken record. Little change as high pressure dominates. The only change to speak of is forecast looks to be trending drier in regards to Thursday/Friday cold front. High pressure firmly in control Monday and Tuesday with no precip in sight and temps in the upper 80`s. Went a degree or two above guidance on both days due to temp trends the past few days. On Tuesday high temps will flirt with record highs but no record temps in current forecast, but only a degree or two away. Still could see some cirrus bands approach our eastern mountains Tuesday afternoon from Hurricane Maria. By Wednesday high pressure begins to break down with upper trough swinging down into the Ohio River Valley but we stay dry and warm. Very little moisture to work with out ahead of approaching cold front on Thursday. Forecast has been getting drier and drier over the past few days. Only have slight chance POPs in for a few areas at this point. Actual front moves through late Thursday/early Friday. Friday temps drop a few degrees below normal behind the frontal passage. Most areas will see highs in the mid to upper 70s with lows on Friday night in the mid 50s. There are differences for Saturday. GFS now doesn`t show the second surge of cold air on while the ECMWF still does. Saturday still looks nice no matter which model ends up being correct, but temperature forecast will depend on whether we see the second surge or not. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 66 89 65 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 63 87 63 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 88 64 87 63 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 57 87 60 / 0 0 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$

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