Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 241846 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 246 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Monday)...Broad upper ridge over the area will gradually weaken during the short term...but still mostly a persistence forecast. Expect convection to be mainly diurnal in nature...so expect some lingering showers and thunderstorms into early evening...then scattered showers and thunderstorms developing again Monday mainly during the afternoon. The heat will continue as well. Will go close to MAV temps for lows tonight...but will continue to go a bit higher than MAV most locations for max temps. .LONG TERM...(Monday night night through Sunday)...Active and unsettled pattern through the long term with more seasonable temperatures and possible heavy rainfall. Flow finally becoming more zonal Monday night as a front drops southward out of the Ohio River Valley. Approaching front will allow chance pops to remain in place through the night. Front drops further south on Tuesday into KY and it`s proximity to our area will lead to chance and likely pops. This front stalls out across the area through Thursday in west-to-east fashion. Also on Tuesday, a weak area of low pressure moves out of the Gulf and into the Southern Gulf States bringing with it an influx of moisture. A weak bermuda high will help to pull this moisture into the Southern Appalachians on Wednesday and Thursday. With the additional Gulf moisture and front in the vicinity, likely pops will be in place on both of these days. Soundings show PWS averaging around the 2 inch mark for both Wednesday and Thursday, which is just above the 90th percentile based on climatology for this time of year. Frontal location, high pws, weak flow aloft, and sufficient CAPES will allow for locally heavy rainfall across the area as well as the possibility of localized flooding. By Friday a broad and shallow longwave trough makes its way down out of the northwest and swings another front through the area. The remaining Gulf moisture gets picked up by this trough and actually puts CHA at near record PWS for this time of year. Friday will be another day where we will have to be on the lookout for heavy rainfall; high-end chance pops currently in place for most areas. Then, a shortwave comes rotating through the trough for Saturday and Sunday. Shortwave and residual Gulf moisture allow for high-end chance pops to carry on through the weekend. High temps from Wednesday through the weekend will be more seasonable due to increased cloud cover. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 75 96 74 94 / 20 30 40 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 94 74 92 / 20 30 40 50 Oak Ridge, TN 73 94 74 92 / 20 30 40 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 94 70 89 / 20 30 40 50 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ LW/SR

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