Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 291838 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 238 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS CAPPING INVERSION ERODED OVER ALL BUT SE TN AND MIDDLE TN. CUMULUS FIELD GROWING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WHILE CONVECTION HAS BEEN EXTREMELY SPARSE...JUST OVER SE KY/SW VA/NE TN AREAS SO FAR. KEEPING THOSE LOW POPS FOR MAINLY SW VA AND NE TN INTO THE EVENING. ALLOWED FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATE WHERE IT HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 2 MORNINGS. MOISTURE INCREASING FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT LIFT WILL BE GRADUAL AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE MID-UPR MS VALLEY REGION LIFTS NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. HIGH POPS NEEDED ESPECIALLY FOR WRN AREAS BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN AREA-WIDE BY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...I CHOSE THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING FROM THE GFS...ECMWF AND SREF...OVER THE FASTER NAM MODEL FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...MOS GUIDANCE GENERALLY CLOSE FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND I FAVORED UNDERCUTTING THE GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY DUE TO HIGH POPS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY SO HELD ONTO RELATIVELY HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY POPS FOR CONVECTION DURING THIS PERIOD WHILE TAPERING BACK TO LOWER CHANCE PROBABILITY FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NO INDICATION OF ORGANIZED LIFT OTHER THAN AFTERNOON HEATING WITH SOME TERRAIN INFLUENCE. IN FACT MODELS TREND TOWARD THE CONCEPT OF A BUILDING RIDGE TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WHICH WOULD SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO SOME DEGREE. STAYED A DEGREE OR TWO UNDER MAX TEMP GUIDANCE WHILE STAYING NEAR TO JUST ABOVE SUGGESTED MINS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 68 89 72 87 / 10 40 60 60 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 68 88 71 85 / 10 30 50 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 67 87 71 83 / 10 30 60 60 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 63 88 66 84 / 30 10 40 60 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ TG

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