Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 021910 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 310 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT)...CURRENT IR/WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW SPINNING RIGHT OVER THE TOP OF US. AS WITH THE PAST FEW DAYS...THIS AFTERNOONS CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE EVENING AND LOSE OUR DAYTIME HEATING. THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ANY PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN. LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 TONIGHT...WHICH IS CLOSE TO NORMAL. TOMORROW THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW MIGRATES A LITTLE FURTHER TO OUR SE WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OFF TO OUR EAST ONCE AGAIN...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS OUR AREA LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND PERHAPS THE PLATEAU. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND NEAR 80. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT TOMORROW. TOMORROW NIGHTS LOWS WILL BE A CARBON COPY OF TONIGHT. .LONG TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY...BUT LOW TO MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM WILL WARRANT LIKELY POPS NORTHERN SECTIONS AND THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIDLEVEL DRYING AND STABILITY THAT SHOULD ONLY MEAN LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH. THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO DIMINISH FRIDAY AS IT PULLS FARTHER EAST AND BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE. DRY MIDLEVEL AIR AND GREATER STABILITY WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH MIDLEVEL RIDGING AND A NW FLOW. THUS POPS WILL DROP BACK TO SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND RIDGES ARE SHOWN BY THE MODELS TO CROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...BUT THERE IS NOT GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OR INTENSITY OF THESE FEATURES. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO FOCUS MOST OF ITS PRECIP ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...WITH A DRY SUNDAY BEFORE A DEEPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY. THE GFS HAS A WEAK THROUGH PASSAGE SATURDAY WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT ONE ON SUNDAY...WITH THE TRAILING FRONT STALLING NEARBY AND LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN GEFS MEMBERS AS WELL. SO PRECIP CHANCES CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR ANY PERIOD. WILL FAVOR A DIURNAL TREND WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT NIGHT AND CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 61 82 62 85 / 20 30 20 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 60 80 62 83 / 30 40 30 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 60 81 61 84 / 20 40 20 40 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 58 79 59 81 / 30 50 30 60 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SR/DGS

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