Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 191928 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 328 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Tonight through Monday)...Mostly sunny skies at mid afternoon Saturday with temperatures in the lower to mid 80s north and mid to upper 80s south. Winds are light and dew points are 3 to 4 degrees lower for the most part across the region. Area radars are quiet with the closest showers in southern KY/northern Tennessee near Clarksville TN. A weak boundary over southwest KY should lift north tonight and Sunday as ridging aloft strengthens over the region. Another boundary to the south...the front from Friday will stay along the southeast US coast. The forecast area in the middle will be mostly clear and temperatures will warm a few degrees to the upper 80s to as warm as mid 90s Sunday after another slightly cooler Sunday morning. Monday not much change with the ridge pattern with skies again mostly sunny in the morning and a few clouds in the afternoon. An increase of moisture by Sunday night will keep lows slightly warmer Monday morning. Did not change rain chances much Monday with only about a 20 percent chance of afternoon showers and a few storms from southwest North Carolina and southeast Tennessee northeast along the Appalachians into Virginia. The showers will be most numerous from mid afternoon until sunset. The eclipse may act to delay cloud development until late afternoon or after eclipse time. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)...Models still bringing another, most pleasant heat busting upper trough into the Eastern U.S. at mid week. Showers and thunderstorms should become likely ahead of the associated cold frontal boundary mainly later Tuesday night into Wednesday. Tried to edge back on pops for the pre-frontal period during the day Tuesday as the models try to generate some convection. It looks like it may take a little deeper influx of moisture and instability to push pops higher with soundings indicating quite a bit of warm, subsident air from the strong, early week upper ridge. Any rain is pretty much over by Thursday as the drier and cooler northerly flow builds in behind the mid week system. The dry pattern may continue into the weekend, however models hint at the possibility of a weak upper wave moving across the area, along with the development of a low level trough on Saturday, so included some slight and low chance pops for a shower or thunderstorm here. Temperatures start out several degrees above normal on Tuesday but mercifully cool off to a few degrees below normal with the cold front and associated northerly flow developing Wednesday through the remainder of the forecast.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 93 71 92 / 0 10 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 91 69 89 / 0 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 68 91 70 90 / 0 0 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 90 64 88 / 0 10 10 10
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$

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