Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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578 FXUS64 KMRX 281901 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 301 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 .SHORT TERM (Tonight and Friday)...Upper level trough and very humid air mass are expected to produce showers and thunderstorms especially late this afternoon through just after midnight. The main area of concern is the northern plateau and SW VA. SPC has also covered the entire forecast area with a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms through 12Z, with a Slight Risk over SW VA and Tri-Cities area. One inhibiting factor is the cloud cover, but enough dynamics are expected to ultimately overcome that restriction. .Long Term (Friday night through Thursday)...The good news is the heat will continue to be tempered back to around normal for late July and Early August with a little bit of an unsettled pattern. A broad upper trough will remain over the eastern states Saturday through about Monday with several ripples of short wave energy riding through the base of the mean trough. There will be enough instability and moisture present for medium to high chance pops for showers and thunderstorms each day through this period. Much of the remainder of the long term forecast will be a return to what has been occurring for the past couple weeks across the Southern Appalachians...temperatures building back above normal with a more limited chance for a cooling shower or thunderstorm. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 88 72 91 / 60 50 50 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 87 72 87 / 70 50 40 40 Oak Ridge, TN 72 87 71 89 / 70 50 30 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 70 84 68 85 / 70 40 30 50 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for Campbell-Claiborne- Hancock-Morgan-Scott TN. VA...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for Lee-Russell-Scott- Wise. && $$ GC/TH

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