Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 010741 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 335 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
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A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID SOUTH AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION DURING THE SHORT TERM. BUOYANCY SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM IN THE WARM AND RATHER MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE SHEAR IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE...IT SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR THE PRODUCTION OF SOME SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN THREAT HERE WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF WIND DAMAGE. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE OZARKS INTO THE MID SOUTH LATER TONIGHT KEEPING THE LATE NIGHT PERIOD ROCKING AND ROLLING WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED POSSIBLY INTO DAYBREAK THURSDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STAYED CLOSE TO SUGGESTED MOS MAX TEMPS TODAY WHICH SHOULD BE TRUNCATED A BIT WITH DEEP MOISTURE BUILDING IN WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER MO WITH A BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS KY TO START THE PERIOD. AS THE LOW TRACKS EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BACK AND STRENGTHEN...INCREASING EFFICIENCY OF GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. PW VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1.75 TO 2 INCH RANGE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTH AND TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HIGH RAINFALL RATES ARE LIKELY. UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL INDUCE MIDLEVEL VORTICIES THAT WILL ENHANCE LIFT AT TIMES...THOUGH TIMING THESE FEATURES AT THIS POINT IS DIFFICULT. STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE FLASH FLOODING FROM TRAINING CELLS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED...BUT SINCE WE ARE STILL MORE THAN 24 HOURS OUT FROM THE TIME OF EXPECTED ENHANCED RAINFALL...WILL HOLD OFF ON ONE FOR NOW. PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT ACCORDING TO THE NAM...THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS MAY SHIFT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP AND UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE GFS SHOWS CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH HOWEVER...SO WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING EVERYWHERE. THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD FINALLY BRING A LITTLE DRYING BY SUNDAY...LOWERING POPS INTO THE CHANCE RANGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF LOOK VERY DIFFERENT BEYOND THAT...WITH GEFS MEMBERS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH QPF. WILL BROAD BRUSH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 83 70 82 71 / 70 60 80 80 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 81 67 80 68 / 60 70 80 80 OAK RIDGE, TN 81 68 80 70 / 60 70 80 80 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 80 66 77 66 / 60 60 80 80
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$

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