Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 011844 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 244 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...
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SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE TERRAIN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE VALLEY...EXCEPT MAYBE SOUTH. A LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. WILL HAVE A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT AS ALL GUIDANCE POINTS IN THAT DIRECTION...AND WE SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM. THROUGH SATURDAY...WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER ABROAD UPPER TROUGH PATTERN...BUT MOST OF THE MID/UPPER ENERGY WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH...WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE TO OUR EAST. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLATEAU AND MOUNTAINS...WITH A FEW POSSIBLY DRIFTING INTO THE VALLEY. WILL HAVE POPS IN THE LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. WILL ALSO RAISE TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL STAY BELOW THE WARM GFS MOS. .LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... PERSISTENT TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST...BUT AT LEAST DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WE WILL FIND OURSELVES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS...CUT OFF FROM THE GULF MOISTURE FEED. BUT IF YOU SEE THE GLASS AS HALF FULL...THAT MEANS WE COME TO FIND OURSELVES ON THE APPROACHING SIDE OF UPPER RIDGING. EITHER WAY...THE RESULT WILL BE DIMINISHED RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO NORMALISH FOR EARLY AUGUST. MODELS SUGGEST IMPROVED RAIN CHANCES FOR THURSDAY...BUT GFS KEEPS THOSE CHANCES IN THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE ECMWF CUTS THEM BACK AGAIN BEFORE THE WEEKEND. WILL CARRY 30 PCT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AREAWIDE UNTIL MORE CONSENSUS CAN BE FOUND.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 66 86 66 88 / 20 40 20 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 63 85 65 86 / 20 20 30 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 63 86 64 87 / 20 20 20 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 61 83 60 83 / 20 30 30 20
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DGS/GC

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