Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 010919 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 415 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT IS BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE AREA...THEN THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE ON THE SHALLOW SIDE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND FORCING IS WEAK...SO WILL KEEP POPS NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE. TONIGHT LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE AS MOISTURE DEEPENS AND THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY LOW PRECIP AMOUNT EVENT. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS TONIGHT. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE PRIMARILY RAIN. ENOUGH COLDER AIR MAY PUSH IN LATE IN AND NEAR WISE COUNTY VA FOR A BIT OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE PRECIP SHOULD BE EXITING AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN. JUST SOME MOSTLY MINOR TWEAKS TO MAV TEMPS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. .LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...LOTS OF ACTION IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS WINTER IS TRYING TO HANG ON BUT SPRING IS ON THE WAY. THE METEOROLOGICAL RESPONSE WILL BE PERIODS OF TIGHT THERMAL AND HEIGHT GRADIENT WHICH LEAD TO A SEEMINGLY NEVER ENDING SUPPLY OF ACTIVE WEATHER. TO START OFF...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE DRIVES ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE MORNING WITH THE PROGRESSIVE BOUNDARY. AGAIN THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACROSS A SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA EARLY IN THE MORNING BEFORE ENDING. THE AMPLIFYING WESTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS MOISTURE IS LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THIS SCENARIO LEADS TO LIKELY PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT BUILDS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. UNFORTUNATELY THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER AND A TRAILING NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER TROUGH WILL ENHANCE LIFT IN RELATIVELY DEEP MOIST AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS MEANS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS IS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT SO DETAILS NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR ON HOW THIS PLAYS OUT BUT WOULD EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN FEATURES WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT DOMINATING IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN BEHIND THE FRONT. SUPPOSE THE BRIGHT SIDE TO THE ACTIVE WEATHER WEEK WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF DRY ADVECTION AND HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 50 41 47 43 / 40 70 50 50 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 50 41 46 40 / 30 70 40 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 48 38 46 38 / 40 70 40 40 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 50 39 44 34 / 30 70 40 20 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$

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