Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 280702 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 302 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
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ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY PULL OUT OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A FEW WEAK BOUNDARY FROM WEDNESDAY CONVECTION...WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST. A STRAY STORM COULD BECOME STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE BUT WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...BELIEVE THIS THREAT TO BE LOW. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN AREAS TONIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS EXPECTING CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. .LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT EARLY ON...BUT AGREEMENT SUFFERS LATE AS DOES RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR EARLY...BUT BELOW AVERAGE LATE IN THE PERIOD. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TO START. AFTER A DRY FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND LOOKS UNSETTLED AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. WILL CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MAY STILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS INTO MONDAY. MODEL AGREEMENT POOR FOR TUESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH AND MUCH STRONGER MOISTURE RETURN. WILL LEAN DRIER THAN THE ECMWF GIVEN HOW OVERDONE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN WITH PRECIP FOR OUR AREA LATELY...BUT WILL INCLUDE LOW POPS. ANOTHER FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE APPROACHING BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 84 60 86 60 / 20 10 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 82 58 83 58 / 30 10 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 82 58 84 58 / 30 10 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 79 54 80 51 / 50 30 10 10
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ MJB/LW

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