Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 190750 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 345 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATER TONIGHT. UNTIL THEN UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST GENERALLY ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS TODAY AND AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE MOUNTAINS IN E TN. SOME OF THIS LIGHT PRECIP MAY EXTEND A LITTLE FARTHER WEST. WHATEVER DOES FALL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WILL AMOUNT TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OR LESS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE THICKEST OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE OPAQUE CIRRUS WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF. THIS IS WHERE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WARMEST...GENERALLY AROUND 70 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR EASTER MORNING WILL PROBABLY BE ON THE WARMER SIDE ESPECIALLY IF THE CLOUD COVER IS SLIGHTLY THICKER. .LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...MODEL FORECASTS NOT TOO DISSIMILAR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT AT THE END WHERE THE ECMWF IS QUICKER TO MOVE A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION. STAYED CLOSER TO THE SLOWER GFS CONCERNING THIS FEATURE. STILL EXPECTING A PLEASANT SUNDAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. EDGED POPS BACK IN TIME ON MONDAY APPLYING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR THE POSSIBILITY THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER WAVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. INCREASING PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION STILL IN THE WORKS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ADVANCES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DUE IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. USED A LIKELY POP FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BIG FRONTAL PUSH WITH DECREASING POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A NICE RIDGE PATTERN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A MODEST WARMING TREND WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S BY THURSDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT (STAYED CLOSER TO THE SLOWER GFS CONCEPT HERE) WITH MODELS INDICATING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT. WENT WITH MEDIUM CHANCE POP FOR THE DAYTIME PERIOD FRIDAY WHILE ADJUSTING TO HIGH CHANCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 69 53 74 52 / 10 10 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 68 48 75 52 / 10 10 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 69 49 75 52 / 10 10 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 66 43 73 44 / 20 10 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ AC/20

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