Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 200749 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 345 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
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MODELS PROG RELATIVELY DECENT INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR...IMPACTING SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE. THIS IS AS AREA WHERE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL RESIDE DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF SHORT WAVELENGTH FEATURES DROPPING SOUTHEAST IN THE PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF THE EASTERN LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY LONG WAVE TROUGH. WENT JUST A LITTLE CLOSER TO CONSISTENTLY BETTER...AND COOLER...MET MOS MAXES TODAY WHILE STAYING CLOSE TO MOS MIN BLEND TONIGHT. .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A STRONG RIDGE WILL BE PLANTED OVER THE LOWER MS REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH A SLIGHT EASTWARD DRIFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RESULTING NW FLOW OVER OUR AREA WILL BRING UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES ACROSS OUR NE SECTIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE SOUTHERN SECTIONS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND HOT. WITH THE STAGNANT PATTERN...WILL FOLLOW A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH CHANCE POPS NE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST...POPS LOWER TO A SLIGHT CHANCE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND MAINLY FAVOR TERRAIN AREAS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOUT AS WARM AS WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S NORTH TO MID 90S SOUTH EACH DAY.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 92 72 94 73 / 30 10 20 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 88 71 90 72 / 40 20 30 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 88 71 90 71 / 40 20 30 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 87 65 88 67 / 50 40 50 30
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$

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