Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 221951 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 251 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE EAST TN VALLEY FROM THE EAST TONIGHT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES ALOFT. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE APPROACHES E TN VALLEY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA AS BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH THE W GREAT LAKES. GOOD SE H85 COMPONENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPS SHOULD LEAD TO MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE AND LOOKS REASONABLE. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IMPRESSIVE LAYER SHEAR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT INSTABILITY IS LACKING. THUNDERSTORM THREAT REMAINS LOW WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS. SURFACE WARM FRONT AND SHORT WAVE MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. SW TO NE UPPER JET EAST OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH STRENGTHEN OVER THE TN VALLEY INTO MONDAY MORNING. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT BECOMES DOMINATE ACROSS E TN VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING. NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY UPPER TROUGH AXIS LATE. SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM WITH LATE DAY FROPA. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED WELL THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING MAKING TUESDAY MORNING LOWS/HIGHS ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER COMPARED TO MONDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL START TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS TEXAS AND MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA, BUT WILL HAVE MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AS SOME OF THE MOISTURE MIGHT BE ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS ONE WILL HAVE A BIT MORE OF A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING IT`S WAY SOUTH BUT COULD SPARK SOME PRECIP IN THE AREA AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 42 60 52 65 / 60 90 50 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 40 59 50 65 / 30 90 60 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 39 58 51 64 / 40 90 50 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 34 57 45 63 / 10 90 70 20 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY. TN...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK- JOHNSON-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK. VA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR RUSSELL-WASHINGTON. && $$ SON/ABM

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