Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 240636 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 236 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A WEAK RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY FOR A SUNNY AND MILD DAY. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRACK INTO THE AREA. DECENT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE BUT INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL AND FORCING RATHER WEAK. WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA DRY DURING THE EVENING BUT BRING IN LIKELY POPS TOWARDS MORNING. EXPECTED MAINLY A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN ALTHOUGH SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE DETAILS ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY AND ABOUT AVERAGE LATE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. INSTABILITY LOOKS A BIT BETTER THAN IT DID 24 HOURS AGO...BUT STILL ON THE WEAK SIDE. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS NORTHEAST TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR WEST ZONES FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDED AS WELL. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OUR MAIN WEATHER FEATURES FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. STILL LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND ALSO LOOKS LIKE ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT SOME POINT IN THAT TIME FRAME. WILL KEEP MENTION OF POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM IN THE HWO.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 78 59 74 48 / 0 70 20 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 77 57 73 48 / 0 70 50 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 77 57 73 47 / 0 70 40 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 75 51 72 43 / 0 70 70 10
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ MJB/LW

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