Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 020809 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 409 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
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AREAS OF CLEAR SKY...CALM WIND AND WET GROUND WILL PRODUCE PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE FOG WILL BE LOCALLY DENSE. FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA. ALSO...AN UPPER SHORT-WAVE WITH JET STRUCTURE PLACING THE REGION UNDER THE FAVORED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WITH DIFLUENCE ALOFT. THE JET STRUCTURE WILL STRENGTHEN THE FRONTO- GENETIC FORCING WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. SINCE THE FLOW WILL BE PARALLEL WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY... TRAINING OF STORM CELLS POSSIBLE ENHANCING THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. MANY AREAS ARE STILL RELATIVELY DRY...SO ONLY ISOLATED FLOODING PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL UP TO ONE-QUARTER. FOR TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS UPPER FORCING MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. FOR TUESDAY...PLENTY OF WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND FAR EASTERN TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...COLD FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE MOISTURE WITH IT. LINGERING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WILL PRODUCE ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF RAIN. THE BIG CHANGE WILL BE IN TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50. WEDNESDAY UPPER TROUGH DIGS FARTHER SOUTH WITH AN IMPULSE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY AFTER 18Z. SHOWERS BECOME LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AS CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES COULD TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY COOLER IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 BUT ONLY 50S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A FRONT WILL COOL TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK THROUGH MOSTLY NORTHERN TN AND SOUTHWEST VA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DECREASING FRIDAY. ECMWF HAS A CLOSED LOW TRACK RIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. FREEZING LEVELS DROP DOWN TO 5000 FEET OR LOWER DURING THIS TIME. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED BUT STAY TUNED. LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS WILL BE MID TO UPPER 30S MOUNTAINS AND 40S ELSEWHERE WITH THURSDAY VERY COLD IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S MOUNTAINS AND MID 50STO MID 60S FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVES OUT FRIDAY WITH WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHER PRESSURE MOVES IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SO CLOUDS DECREASE AND TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO INCREASE MOISTURE SUNDAY AND CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 79 60 76 50 / 90 80 20 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 78 59 73 49 / 80 80 40 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 78 59 74 50 / 80 80 30 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 78 58 72 47 / 80 90 60 40
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$

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