Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 022024 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 324 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 .SHORT TERM /Tonight and Saturday/...
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Quiet weather continues across the region this afternoon, with high pressure in control. Clouds will begin to filter into the region overnight ahead of a developing upper-level storm system to the west. The result will be a partly sunny to partly cloudy day on Saturday, with a NE (down Valley) flow. Thus, a slightly cooler day is expected with highs peaking in the upper 40s to lower 50s. The main concern continues to be the fire situation in the Great Smoky Mountains. Wind speeds will be light, but a few erratic higher gusts will be possible along the higher terrain. Late in the afternoon, a few light showers may peak into the Southern Plateau, but otherwise any rain chances should hold off until after 00z. .LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Friday/... Will move into an active weather pattern for the extended. Southerly flow over the region will bring low level moisture into the area early in the period. In conjunction with this...a short wave moving in from the southwest and a low pressure system to the north will phase together and move through the Southern Appalachian Region and spread a band of showers from west to east across the area Saturday night and Sunday. Cool...near freezing...temperatures overnight across some northern location and higher elevation should allow for a mix of rain and snow by early Sunday morning. Little to no accumulations is expected. Then...immediately behind this...a low pressure system that tracked through Mexico and TX will push into the MRX CWA for Monday and Tuesday...continuing the high chance/likely pops over the region. Models differ through the rest of the extended and confidence is low. Current GFS wants to bring a weak secondary frontal boundary through on Tuesday night/Wednesday...then briefly see a break in the activity around the Thursday time frame and then a trough axis moving in around Thursday night. The ECMWF has us between systems Wednesday with another system moving in Thursday/Thursday night. With lingering precip and timing and strength of the system in question through the rest of the extended...will continue with 20 to 30 pops for this period. Cooler air moving in late in the period could allow for scattered light snow or flurries Thursday night and a few lingering snow showers north on Friday.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 35 52 42 50 / 0 10 80 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 32 49 39 47 / 0 0 60 80 Oak Ridge, TN 32 49 39 47 / 0 0 60 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 28 46 34 45 / 0 0 30 60
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ AMP/MJB

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