Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 171909 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 309 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 .SHORT TERM (Today into tomorrow)...
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Another pleasant weather day is expected with conditions similar to what we saw yesterday. High temperatures, again, are expected to be about 2-5 degrees above normal for this time of year. Winds will remain light through the day and into the night. The light winds and mostly clear skies will allow for fog formation once again overnight into tomorrow morning. Once the fog clears out we will see similar conditions tomorrow. .Long Term (Monday night through Sunday)... High pressure will be present over the southern MS Valley...weakening and moving towards the Gulf coast through the middle of the work week. The flow around this high pressure will allow for mid level flow from the north...which will keep warm air and moisture advection limited. At the same time...a weak trough and boundary will move from the west to east across the Great Lakes region. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms are possible ahead of this boundary on Tuesday...though moisture is limited and instabilities are weak. Not expecting anything severe with this convection. The frontal boundary is expected to be through the area on Wednesday...with scattered showers and thunderstorms again possible. Models are trying to dry this system out...but have kept in chance precipitation chances for now due to the upper level lift present and instabilities at or above 2000 J/kg across much of the area. With the very weak low and mid level winds in place...would expect little movement from anything that does form. Thursday through Saturday...low and mid level winds transition to out of the east...with diurnal showers and thunderstorms possible each afternoon...mainly in the higher elevations. Enough lift and slightly more moisture is present to warrant chance precip chances in areas south of I40 and slight chance precip chances in areas north of I40. Little change in airmass through the extended will keep temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s each day. Temperatures could cool a couple of degrees behind the frontal boundary passage Wednesday into Thursday...with temperatures near normal through the end of the weekend.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 87 65 85 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 84 62 84 / 0 0 0 20 Oak Ridge, TN 63 85 63 84 / 0 0 0 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 82 59 82 / 0 10 10 20
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ ABM/JW

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