Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 221853 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 253 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Tonight and Monday)...An upper/mid level trough will dig into the plains and cut off over the Mississippi Valley before lifting northeast. A wave of surface low pressure will ride north northeast along an approaching cold front, with the cold front pushing into our area very late tonight and should exit Monday early afternoon. Convective energy looks very limited at best, so no thunder in the forecast for now. However, should see rain all areas with this system. Southeasterly low level jet will strengthen overnight, and while conditions do not look ideal there is at least some potential for mountain wave enhancement of the winds in the usual higher elevation/foothills areas of the East TN mountains. Will issue a wind advisory for the TN higher elevation zones from Monroe north for tonight/Monday morning. Rain should be diminishing from southwest to northeast Monday late morning/afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)...The shortwave trough at the start of this period will generally be east of the forecast area. Have allowed for some variance/slower motion to the precip field that follows in the wake of the front/trough. A deeper trough will dig in quickly behind the exiting shortwave by Tuesday morning. This will bring another reinforcing shot of cool air across the area through Wednesday. Wednesday will be the coolest day this week with daytime temperatures in the 40s and 50s! Models diverge on how much moisture remains particularly over southwest VA and northeast TN Tuesday into Wednesday. Slight chance of PoPs is reasonable for these areas and timeframe. By Friday night another deep trough and associated cold front will edge closer to the forecast area. Southerly flow will bring increasing moisture and warm temperatures back to the region. As a result, rain chances will begin increasing Friday night through the weekend and temperatures will drop to below normal.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 70 48 63 / 90 100 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 69 48 61 / 50 90 40 20 Oak Ridge, TN 61 69 47 61 / 60 100 40 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 71 46 62 / 30 90 70 20
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...None. TN...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to noon EDT Monday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi. VA...None.
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&& $$ LW/AC

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