Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS64 KMRX 260633 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 233 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
-- Changed Discussion --
RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THE LATEST HRRR DEPICTIONS OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER NE GA AND MOVING N-NE THROUGH THE MORNING...SO INITIALLY THE HIGHEST POPS TODAY WILL BE NE. THE VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION NEAR THE MS RIVER THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO MIDDLE TN THIS AFTERNOON...SHIFTING THE HIGHERST PRECIP CHANCES TO THE PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN VALLEY AREAS. WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS IN THESE AREAS...WITH LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE VORT MAX MOVES EAST. A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE LOOKS LOW WITH A SKINNY CAPE AREA SEEN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HEAVY RAIN FROM TRAINING CELLS WILL BE A BIGGER THREAT THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING. THE GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES...WITH MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING ACROSS THE AREA. VARIOUS MODELS DISAGREE WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE DISTURBANCES...WHICH WILL BE KEY TO PINPOINTING THE AREA AND TIMING OF HIGHEST POPS AND QPF. WITH CONFIDENCE BEING LOW WITH THESE FINER FEATURES...WILL PAINT THE POP/WX/QPF GRIDS WITH A BROAD BRUSH. LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED EACH DAY...WITH CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. NO SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE LACK OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. - KMEM 260623 WRKAFD .LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING MID WEEK SHORT WAVE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE. PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION INCHES UP JUST A LITTLE LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE FEATURE ALONG WITH A SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION. MAX AND MIN FORECAST TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A LITTLE AHEAD OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE MAY AND EARLY JUNE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 80 66 82 66 / 80 80 70 50 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 81 65 81 64 / 70 70 70 50 OAK RIDGE, TN 80 65 81 65 / 70 70 70 50 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 82 64 79 62 / 60 70 70 50
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ 24/99

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.