Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 191920 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 320 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Tonight and Tomorrow)...A few lingering showers and perhaps even an isolated storm may still be ongoing across the furthest eastern portions of our CWA to start the period just ahead of an incoming cold front. The front should past to our east sometime between 01z and 04z. As the front moves east, expect clearing skies through the night from west to east. Low temps will be around 8 to 10 degrees cooler than last night with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s, which is a few degrees below normal. As skies clear and temperatures drop, expect patchy fog to develop overnight across the area. Fog will clear tomorrow morning with clear skies and pleasant temps in store for your Tuesday. Highs will generally be in the lower 80s for most areas which is a few degrees below normal. Slight chance pop in place for southwest North Carolina tomorrow afternoon due to proximity of front just off to our east, otherwise dry and sunny. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)...Cold front to the south and east of the forecast area Tuesday night will become stationary with drier air mass moving across the region. A few showers and storms still a possibility over the southeast corner but skies will be mostly clear except far south Tuesday night and lows in the cooler lower to mid 60s with 50s higher elevations. Near Chattanooga lows closer to 70 and lower clouds possible during the late night hours. GFS more aggressive with bringing moisture back north Wednesday from Gulf as potential tropical system by Wednesday afternoon. Prefer the slower NAM and EMWCF and will keep all but southeast corner dry Wednesday and Wednesday night. Thursday models bring surge of moisture north towards and into the Tennessee Valley which follows current forecast. Will have good chance for showers and storms Thursday and becoming likely Friday. For the weekend high rain chances continue Saturday and Sunday. Best chance for heavy rainfall is Saturday but this will depend on track of system in Gulf. Five day totals through early Saturday are forecast to be two to three inches and then about an inch more for the next 2 day period. Temperatures will be near normal to slightly below normal during the day Thursday through Monday. Lows at night will be above normal due to clouds and rain with a more tropical airmass.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 85 67 87 / 10 10 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 83 66 85 / 10 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 63 84 65 86 / 10 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 81 60 84 / 20 10 10 10
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ SR/TD

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