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402
FXUS64 KMRX 210706
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
306 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...
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Eclipse day across the area.
Upper and surface ridging will limit convection as well as cloud
cover today. Only chance of convection will be near the North
Carolina state-line where upslope flow may produce isolated
showers/storms. Due to the high number of people outside viewing
the eclipse and the many venues, heat exhaustion and sunburn will
be a concern. Plan on issuing a statement discussing these
concerns.

Due to the eclipse, have reduced forecast max by a degree or two.
Also, have reduced the hourly temperatures at 3 pm by 3 to 5
degrees. The greatest temperature reduction due to the eclipse
should be observed between 235 and 245 pm. Places in full
obstruction could see a temperature drop of 6 to 8 degrees.

Otherwise, patchy fog development early this morning and Tuesday
morning. Some of the fog may be locally dense, especially near
area lakes and streams.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Forecast remains largely unchanged from previous with good agreement
in the breakdown of the ridge on Tuesday being replaced by troughing
midweek. Cold front drops south Tuesday night forcing convection and
likely PoPs late Tuesday night and Wednesday. PWs ahead of the front
jump up to around 2.0 inches which is near the 90th percentile for
this time of year, so may have some moderate to heavy rain on
Wednesday. However, widespread flooding issues are not anticipated
with the quick moving front and general synoptic setup. Instability
and shear also look marginal during this event, so really do not
anticipate much of a severe weather threat beyond general
thunderstorm hazards.

The front should move to our southeast Wednesday night and Thursday
bringing in a drier airmass and keeping potential tropical
disturbances off of the East Coast. Dry PWs of 0.7-1.0 inch look
possible late Thursday through Friday which would be around the 10th
percentile for this time of year. Should have a mostly dry Thursday
and a dry Friday with temperatures expected to be below normal
Wednesday through Friday. The next trough may bring some additional
chance/slight chance PoPs late next weekend.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN             93  73  93  74 /  10  10  20  30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  91  72  90  72 /  10   0  20  40
Oak Ridge, TN                       90  72  90  73 /  10   0  20  50
Tri Cities Airport, TN              89  66  88  69 /  10  10  20  50
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&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$