


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --869 FXUS64 KMRX 261122 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 722 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM...-- Changed Discussion --(Today and tonight) Issued at 134 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Key Messages: 1. Heat Advisory continues today for Heat Index around 105 in the southern and central TN Valley. 2. Isolated strong to severe storms are possible late this afternoon and evening. Discussion: The large high pressure ridge that has been over the region will continue to be the dominant weather feature for one more day. Under this ridge, we will have another day of hot and humid conditions, with the Heat Index reaching near or just over 105 for much of the Tennessee Valley and Cumberland Plateau. Temperatures are expected to be a degree to two lower compared to what we saw yesterday, but dewpoints will be slightly higher. Current obs are showing some locations with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s, higher than what we have seen at this time the last few nights. Afternoon mixing will lower those values to lower and mid 70s, which will lead to a Heat Index around 105 for the southern and central TN Valley. CAPE will continue to be plentiful in this hot and humid air mass. Convection should have no problem breaking through a weak cap in the early to mid afternoon, mainly in the higher terrain of the mountains and Cumberland Plateau. Outflow boundaries from this activity will likely initiate convection into the Valley through the late afternoon and evening. DCAPE values in the 1100-1300 J/kg range and steep low level lapse rates will mean storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts. Very weak flow through the column with PW values in the range of 1.5-1.7 inches will result in slow- moving storms that dump heavy rainfall, potentially causing localized flooding.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LONG TERM...-- Changed Discussion --(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 134 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Key Messages: 1. Increasing moisture brings higher rain chances and slightly cooler temperatures through the weekend. Isolated severe storms and localized flash flooding are possible each day. 2. A cold front approaches the area Tuesday/Wednesday. Discussion: A weak tropical wave that is currently over the eastern coastline of Florida will make its way northwestward, and the large ridge will loosen its grip on the Southeast. This will bring greater moisture into the TN Valley through the weekend. This weak low lingers over the Southeast through Sunday, until it starts to get picked up by a shortwave trough to the north on Monday. The high CAPE/low shear environment will result in numerous afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day, driven mainly by orographic lift and outflow boundaries. These pulse storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts. With PW values rising into the range of 1.7-2 inches, any storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall that causes localized flooding. On Tuesday and Wednesday, a broad mid/upper trough develops over the eastern Conus, and a cold front will approach the region. It remains to be seen whether this front stalls over the area, or if it pushes through. The latest models runs seem to be pointing more toward pushing the front to our south and east on Wednesday, which would-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION...-- Changed Discussion --(12Z TAFS) Issued at 717 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Early morning thunderstorms behind an outflow boundary are generally progressing to the northwest except for a cluster near Athens and Sweetwater. TS should dissipate over the next 1-2 hours. VFR conditions to continue through today, scattered TS expected again this afternoon into early evening, low confidence on direct terminal impacts. Gusty winds with TS. Late in the period patchy fog has a medium chance of formation, more likely to see impacts for airports who see rain today.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 95 72 92 72 / 30 30 50 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 94 71 90 71 / 30 20 50 30 Oak Ridge, TN 95 71 90 71 / 30 20 50 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 92 68 89 68 / 50 30 50 40 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for Anderson-Bledsoe-Bradley-Hamilton-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn- Meigs-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Monroe-Rhea- Roane-Sequatchie-West Polk. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DGS LONG TERM....DGS AVIATION...Wellington