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000
FXUS64 KMRX 191920
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
320 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...
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(Tonight and Tomorrow)...A few lingering showers and
perhaps even an isolated storm may still be ongoing across the
furthest eastern portions of our CWA to start the period just ahead
of an incoming cold front. The front should past to our east
sometime between 01z and 04z. As the front moves east, expect
clearing skies through the night from west to east. Low temps will
be around 8 to 10 degrees cooler than last night with lows in the
upper 50s to lower 60s, which is a few degrees below normal. As
skies clear and temperatures drop, expect patchy fog to develop
overnight across the area. Fog will clear tomorrow morning with
clear skies and pleasant temps in store for your Tuesday. Highs will
generally be in the lower 80s for most areas which is a few degrees
below normal. Slight chance pop in place for southwest North
Carolina tomorrow afternoon due to proximity of front just off to
our east, otherwise dry and sunny.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)...Cold front to the
south and east of the forecast area Tuesday night will become
stationary with drier air mass moving across the region. A few
showers and storms still a possibility over the southeast corner
but skies will be mostly clear except far south Tuesday night and
lows in the cooler lower to mid 60s with 50s higher elevations. Near
Chattanooga lows closer to 70 and lower clouds possible during the
late night hours. GFS more aggressive with bringing moisture back
north Wednesday from Gulf as potential tropical system by Wednesday
afternoon. Prefer the slower NAM and EMWCF and will keep all but
southeast corner dry Wednesday and Wednesday night. Thursday models
bring surge of moisture north towards and into the Tennessee Valley
which follows current forecast. Will have good chance for showers
and storms Thursday and becoming likely Friday. For the weekend high
rain chances continue Saturday and Sunday. Best chance for heavy
rainfall is Saturday but this will depend on track of system in
Gulf. Five day totals through early Saturday are forecast to be two
to three inches and then about an inch more for the next 2 day
period. Temperatures will be near normal to slightly below normal
during the day Thursday through Monday. Lows at night will be above
normal due to clouds and rain with a more tropical airmass.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN             64  85  67  87 /  10  10  10  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  63  83  66  85 /  10  10  10  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       63  84  65  86 /  10   0   0  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              60  81  60  84 /  20  10  10  10
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&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

SR/TD