Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 170729 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 329 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Thursday night)... Surface high pressure will remain firmly in control across the region through the period. A mid/upper level shortwave trough moves across the area Wednesday/Wednesday night, but it should have little impact other than bringing some thin cirrus. The main weather story will be chilly overnight temperatures each night, which may allow for some patchy frost to form in the sheltered valleys of SW VA, SW NC, and the TN mountains. Temperatures tonight look marginal for any frost, and what does form seems likely to be patchy and isolated at this time, so no advisory will be issued. Like this morning, a SPS may be enough to cover it, but will let the day shift decide. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)... The upper level pattern becomes amplified with an Eastern U.S. ridge gradually shifting east followed by a deep upper trough which presses through the Mississippi Valley toward the Appalachian Spine late in the weekend. The ECMWF and GFS not too far apart with the depiction of this next trough, although the GFS is a bit faster. Also, the models slow the associated cold front down somewhat with each model indicating the development of a closed low in the base of the trough early on Monday. Stayed with the Superblend suggestion of medium chance pops for some showers Sunday night into Monday night with the relatively slow moving trough. Temperatures in the mild prevailing southwesterly flow regime will be a few degrees above normal with highs in the 70s and lows rising from the 40s early in the extended period into the 50s through the weekend.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 43 73 45 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 42 71 44 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 68 42 71 44 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 38 71 39 / 0 0 0 0
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ 24/99

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