Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS64 KMRX 280909 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 400 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
-- Changed Discussion --
WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR WILL START TO RETURN DURING THE PERIOD. WILL SEE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS TODAY...THEN ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS ENOUGH TONIGHT THAT WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST. MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW...SO WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE. TEMPS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH MAINLY NORTHEAST ZONES GIVEN LINGERING SNOW COVER THERE AND ALSO SW NC FOR THE PRECIP TO BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. GIVEN LOW POPS/PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL JUST MENTION THIS IN THE HWO FOR NOW. .LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL BE ON THE RETURN MAINLY ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND THE MODELS STILL DON`T SHOW MUCH LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE EARLY IN THE DAY SUNDAY SO KEPT POPS RATHER LOW FOR SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY DROP TO JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE BEFORE WARMING UP QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEREFORE HELD ONTO THIS SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE IN THIS AREA EARLY SUNDAY. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVED THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MAINTAINED BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM LATER SUNDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH HAVE BRACKETED LOWER PROBABILITIES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FROPA WHICH LOOKS TO HAPPEN EARLY IN THE DAY MONDAY. SO MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING MAY BE DRY WHILE THE FORECAST AREA AWAITS THE MUCH ANTICIPATED AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WHICH PROVIDES SOME OF THE WARMEST AIR WE`VE SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. POPS CRANK UP FOR SOME RAIN A BIT LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT BUILDS NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PROBABILITIES WILL RISE TO LIKELY AND EVEN CATEGORICAL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE EASTERN STATES. THERE IS STILL SOME BROAD BRUSHING OCCURRING HERE WITH THE FORECAST FOR SUCH AN EXTENSIVE PERIOD OF HIGH PROBABILITY BUT THE MODELS DO SHOW A SLOWING OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. SO SHOWERS AND EVEN A CHANCE OF CONVECTION DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH A RATHER LENGTHY PERIOD OF POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW AS A TRAILING UPPER TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE LAKES FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND MUCH COLDER AIR SPILL BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 47 35 50 41 / 10 20 30 70 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 41 36 50 40 / 10 20 20 70 OAK RIDGE, TN 43 35 50 38 / 10 20 20 70 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 40 31 50 38 / 10 30 20 60
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.