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000
FXUS64 KMRX 280909
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
400 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
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WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR WILL
START TO RETURN DURING THE PERIOD.  WILL SEE VARYING AMOUNTS OF
CLOUDS TODAY...THEN ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS ENOUGH TONIGHT THAT
WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST.
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW...SO WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE.
TEMPS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH MAINLY NORTHEAST ZONES GIVEN LINGERING
SNOW COVER THERE AND ALSO SW NC FOR THE PRECIP TO BE IN THE FORM OF
FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.  GIVEN LOW POPS/PRECIP AMOUNTS
WILL JUST MENTION THIS IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL BE ON
THE RETURN MAINLY ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND THE MODELS STILL DON`T SHOW
MUCH LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE EARLY IN THE DAY SUNDAY SO KEPT POPS
RATHER LOW FOR SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY
DROP TO JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST
TENNESSEE BEFORE WARMING UP QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEREFORE HELD
ONTO THIS SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE IN THIS AREA
EARLY SUNDAY. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVED THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MAINTAINED BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH HAVE BRACKETED LOWER PROBABILITIES ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE FROPA WHICH LOOKS TO HAPPEN EARLY IN THE DAY MONDAY. SO
MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING MAY BE DRY WHILE
THE FORECAST AREA AWAITS THE MUCH ANTICIPATED AMPLIFICATION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WHICH PROVIDES SOME OF THE WARMEST AIR WE`VE
SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. POPS CRANK
UP FOR SOME RAIN A BIT LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WARM
FRONT BUILDS NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PROBABILITIES WILL RISE
TO LIKELY AND EVEN CATEGORICAL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE EASTERN STATES. THERE IS
STILL SOME BROAD BRUSHING OCCURRING HERE WITH THE FORECAST FOR SUCH
AN EXTENSIVE PERIOD OF HIGH PROBABILITY BUT THE MODELS DO SHOW A
SLOWING OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. SO SHOWERS AND EVEN A CHANCE
OF CONVECTION DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH MOVES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A RATHER LENGTHY PERIOD OF POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THE CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW AS A TRAILING UPPER TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE LAKES FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND MUCH
COLDER AIR SPILL BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             47  35  50  41 /  10  20  30  70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  41  36  50  40 /  10  20  20  70
OAK RIDGE, TN                       43  35  50  38 /  10  20  20  70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              40  31  50  38 /  10  30  20  60
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&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$