Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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359 FXUS64 KMRX 071741 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 141 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM and LONG TERM...
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(This evening through next Monday) Issued at 135 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Key Messages: 1. Showers and storms will be isolated again today in the Tennessee Valley. Starting tomorrow, showers and storms will be more scattered as a trough in the Midwest slowly moves closer. 2. Higher afternoon/evening rain chances will continue through at least Friday. Lower chances seem possible for the weekend with a ridge possibly building in. Discussion: Overall, shower and storm activity will be fairly isolated again today in the Tennessee Valley. Better chances of more scattered activity in the Cumberland Plateau, Southwest Virginia and Northeast Tennessee this afternoon/evening where the Cu field is already looking more robust. Tomorrow afternoon/evening, shower and storm activity will be more scattered even in the Tennessee Valley as a trough lingering over the Midwest slowly drifts closer to our region. By Wed/Thurs, deep layer moisture advection will be present with a surface high over the Atlantic bringing southerly flow at the surface and a trough aloft bringing southerly flow aloft. Pwat values will be high peaking around 2 inches by Thursday. Therefore, showers and storms will be scattered to numerous Wed through Fri mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. With many areas starting to dry out and storm level motion around 15 knots expected later this week, widespread flooding is not expected but localized flooding will be possible. Instability will be higher by Wed/Thurs timeframe with CAPE around 1500 to 2500 J/kg possible so a few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out near max heating. There is hope for a ridge possibly building in this weekend. So we may be getting lower rain chances for that timeframe. Highs will be mostly in the lower 90s for the Tennessee Valley.
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&& .AVIATION...
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(18Z TAFS) Issued at 135 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Scattered showers and storms are forming in the terrain around the Tennessee Valley. Activity will be more isolated in the Valley and near the terminals but a low chance for thunder and rain will exist through early evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 94 72 93 / 10 50 20 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 93 72 91 / 10 50 20 70 Oak Ridge, TN 71 92 70 91 / 10 50 20 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 89 69 88 / 20 50 30 70
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...McD LONG TERM....McD AVIATION...McD