Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 181411 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 1011 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014 .DISCUSSION...
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PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION STILL VALID. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL KY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BE JUST OFF TO OUR NE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF ONGOING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY SHOULD PERSIST FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO...AND UP TO THREE ACROSS SWNC. THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS OCCURRED ACROSS MARION COUNTY WHERE THREE HOUR PRECIP ESTIMATES FROM HTX RADAR INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN. AREAS TO THE WEST OF JASPER AND SOUTH OF MONTEAGLE THAT BOARDER FRANKLIN COUNTY HAVE SEEN 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AREAS UP TO 4 INCHES. THERE WAS AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 845 AM EDT BUT THAT WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS MARION COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTED NO PROBLEMS ACROSS THE AREA AND AS THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS MOVED OUT. WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH MARION COUNTY LATER TODAY FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING PROBLEMS IN CASE ANY MORE HEAVY RAINFALL MOVES ACROSS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN AK IS SET TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN AS PWS OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYERS IN EXCESS OF 12K FEET. INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO CATEGORICAL THEN LEFT CATEGORICAL IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN VALLEY OVER TO SWNC UP UNTIL 2PM. LOWERED MAX TEMPS BY A DEGREE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA. MAX TEMP AT CHA LOWERED TO 86. WILL ALSO TWEAK HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS AS SOME AREAS ARE SLOWER TO WARM THAN OTHERS DUE TO CLOUDS. NEW ZONES OUT SOON. .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 86 71 89 71 / 80 40 20 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 84 70 87 70 / 60 50 30 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 84 69 87 70 / 60 50 30 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 80 67 85 66 / 70 50 40 30
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SR

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