Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 292041 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 341 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(Tonight through Wednesday)...Very active day. Main concern will be high winds returning across the mountains and foothills...including the Gatlinburg/Pigeon Forge areas. Next concern is potential severe weather across the western/southern half of the areas overnight/Wednesday morning. Also...locally heavy rains...especially at/near the Pigeon Forge/Gatlinburg burn scar area. Another strong upper level will swing across the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys placing the region under the favored Right Entrance Region of the jet enhancing fronto-genetic forcing especially between 12-15Z Wednesday. Currently...a warm frontal boundary is located across central Alabama. This boundary will move north with models showing good isentropic lift across the Tennessee Valley beginning this evening. The jet energy...isentropic lift...and increasing instability (especially aloft)...will produce scattered thunderstorms over region. Concerned for the potential of severe storms...especially across southeast Tennessee and the Plateau. Main concern will be hail and damaging winds. Forecast soundings show boundary layer will become surface base later tonight/early Wednesday morning... so can not rule out an isolated tornado near the warm frontal boundary (especially for the CHA area). As the frontal-genetic forcing moves through 12-15Z...widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected. This line of convection will likely have strong winds along the leading edge. Rainfall of 1 to 1 1/2 inches will be common...but locally 2 inches possible. The burn scar from the recent fires and up-coming rainfall may produce flash flood issues across the Gatlinburg/Pigeon Forge areas. The strong boundary layer jet with 850mb jet of 50-60kts will produce windy conditions across the mountains and adjacent foothills. A high winds warning/wind advisories have been issued. The rain will end Wednesday afternoon as the front moves east of the area. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)...Models continue to be in decent agreement early...but have poor agreement/run to run consistency late in the period. Forecast confidence is a bit above about average for this time of year early...but below average late. May be a lingering shower early Wednesday night eastern areas...but drier and colder air moving in will bring an end to the precip fairly quickly. Flow becomes more zonal aloft and surface high pressure will build in for Thursday and Friday. Moisture may begin to increase Saturday ahead of the next system...but for now will go dry given latest model trends to slow things down. Timing/details of next system still very uncertain given aforementioned model consistency/agreement issues...but looks like there will be the possibility of more rain in the Sunday through Tuesday time frame.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 66 40 57 / 90 100 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 58 66 41 55 / 80 100 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 57 66 41 53 / 90 100 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 53 67 39 52 / 70 100 20 10
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 PM EST Wednesday for Cherokee-Clay. TN...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 PM EST Wednesday for East Polk-Johnson-NW Blount-North Sevier-Northwest Carter- Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi-Washington TN. High Wind Warning from 11 PM this evening to 3 PM EST Wednesday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains. VA...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 PM EST Wednesday for Wise.
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&& $$

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