Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 240910 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 400 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
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UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP WILL EXIT THIS MORNING. PLATEAU AND HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS IN SW VA AND EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS STILL LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW...SO WILL LEAVE ADVISORY AS IS FOR NOW. ELSEWHERE SHOULD SEE RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. ONLY A BRIEF SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT AT LEAST SOUTH AND CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MAY HAVE A HARDER TIME NORTH. TONIGHT SHOULD BE DRY BUT STILL SOME CLOUDS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY NORTH. MAV TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK REASONABLE SO WILL ONLY MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. .LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MODERATELY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES AND NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT MID DAY MONDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FEATURE KEEPS PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. BY EVENING...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE EFFECTIVE ENOUGH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...PRIMARILY ABOVE 3000 FEET FOR A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAINS BORDERING WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...MODEL FORECASTS ARE RESISTANT TO CHILLING DOWN THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS SUFFICIENTLY FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT VALLEY TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. 85H TEMPERATURES FINALLY GET COLD ENOUGH FOR THE RAIN TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SOME SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND EXTREME NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AS WELL AS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. STILL...SOME OF THESE AREAS COULD SEE A CHANGE BACK TO A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON IN THESE LOWER ELEVATION LOCALES WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL RISING BACK TO AROUND 1000 FEET WITH SOME DIURNAL WARMING. THEREFORE...SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE AMOUNTS COULD REACH 1-2 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND EXTREME NORTHEAST TENNESSEE WITH 2-4 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE IN THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER...MUCH WEAKER...IMPULSE. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH SOME UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THIS SYSTEM`S LACK OF LIFTING ABILITIES AND LIMITED MOISTURE DEPTH...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE RATHER LIGHT IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW SCENARIO THE BETTER CHANCE OF EFFECTIVE SNOW WOULD AGAIN BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND IN THE MOUNTAINS BORDERING NORTH CAROLINA. THE MEAN EASTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES AWAY ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...ANY NOTICEABLE WARMING MAY NOT BE IN THE WORKS UNTIL ABOUT THURSDAY...BUT IN ORDER TO ENJOY SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AROUND THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME WTIH THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 46 32 54 36 / 20 0 50 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 43 31 50 35 / 40 10 40 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 44 31 50 35 / 30 10 50 60 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 41 27 50 34 / 70 10 50 70
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS- JOHNSON-MORGAN-SCOTT TN-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-UNICOI. VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LEE- RUSSELL-WISE. && $$

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