Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 240714 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 314 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE OUR REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WILL SEE A CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WITH TEMPS GENERALLY RUNNING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. WILL BUMP MAV MAX TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY...AND TWEAK SOME MINS DOWN...BUT OVERALL WILL NOT STRAY FAR. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY UNCHANGED WITH MODEL DEPICTION INDICATING A SHORT WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN STATES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN INCREASING ADVECTION OF WARM AND MOIST AIR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IN THIS AIR MASS SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE DIFFUSE BOUNDARY WITH DEVELOPMENT REMAINING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SOUTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION AFFECTING MOST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION WILL BE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A STRONGER COOL FRONT SLIPS INTO THE REGION. STAYED WITH THE RATHER SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON FRIDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY STILL IN THE AREA. LIFT INCREASES...ALONG WITH THE PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION...ON SATURDAY AS THE BOUNDARY BUILDS BACK NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 82 57 80 61 / 0 0 10 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 80 57 79 60 / 0 0 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 80 56 80 59 / 0 0 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 78 47 78 56 / 0 0 10 10
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$

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