Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 281906 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 306 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Saturday)...Quite capped this afternoon so far, but some convection might be able to break the cap mainly over and near the plateau this afternoon/evening. Will have slight chance PoPs Northern Plateau this evening. We will continue to be on the west side of the upper ridge tomorrow with the front well to our west and north. Model soundings for tomorrow look rather dry, and it is unclear if low levels will mix out too much for the model`s significant instability to be realized and convection to form. However, given uncertainty will carry a slight chance PoP all areas for the afternoon. It will be quite hot tomorrow, with records being threatened. Will make only minor adjustments to MAV temps. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)...The surface ridge of high pressure moves east on Sunday resulting in slightly cooler, but still much above normal, temperatures on Sunday. A strong surface low will trek towards the Great Lakes region tightening the pressure gradient across the area resulting in periods of breezy conditions Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. There is the potential for a few isolated showers or thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening, but due to lack of any substantial forcing across the warm sector, any convection should be isolated and generally across the higher terrain. A trailing cold front will move east across the forecast area late Sunday night and Monday morning resulting in likely showers and thunderstorms. Because of the late night/early morning timing of frontal passage, instability appears low limiting the overall severe weather threat. However, there will be a marginal wind risk because of a strong southerly 850mb jet with winds of 50- 60kt. Cooler and more seasonable temperatures are expected early in the week as zonal flow returns. A quick shortwave will provide a focus for lift and a chance of rain showers on Wednesday. A stronger trough deepens across the region on Thursday bringing a chance of more widespread precipitation along with a brief cool down. Confidence is lower late in the week with differing solutions in how to handle the evolution of the trough. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 90 67 86 / 0 20 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 90 67 85 / 10 20 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 65 90 67 85 / 10 20 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 90 62 85 / 10 20 10 20 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ LW/JB

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