Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 121535 AAA AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Morristown TN 1035 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2018 .DISCUSSION...
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It is a very difficult forecast today and tonight as there are several competing factors that will determine p-type and amounts this afternoon and evening. Obs show that a strong cold front is on our western border, with a 30+ temperature drop from CHA to MRC. This timing of the cold air is faster than previously forecast. However, the most striking feature of note is the dry slot across AL and Middle TN, and radar shows very little precip in this area. The lack of deep moisture in the p-type transition zone is good news for less FZRA/IP accumulation today. The precip over West TN and nrn MS in the comma head is progged by the models to track NE, skirting our northern Plateau and part of SW VA. This area may maintain deeper moisture from the comma head into tonight, and with temps aloft dropping below freezing while this moisture moves in, there is concern that higher elevations of Claiborne, Wise, and Lee counties could see some icing/sleet between 8 pm and midnight the changeover to snow after midnight. Thus, will expand the Advisory to include this area. The area for potential ice accumulation will be in the Advisory area for a brief period between 4 pm and 7 pm. The update will lower PoPs to account for the dry slot while lowering temperatures more quickly from west to east this afternoon, with the transition from rain to sleet to snow a little more quickly.
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NC...None. TN...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ this evening to 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Saturday for Bledsoe-Campbell-Claiborne- Marion-Morgan-Scott TN-Sequatchie. VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Saturday for Lee-Wise.
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