Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 301851 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 251 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL TN VALLEY CURRENTLY. THE INTENSITIES HAVE NOT IMPROVED WITH THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING OVER THE PAST HOUR. TEMPERATURES IN THE FOOTHILLS ARE MUCH HIGHER THAN SURROUNDING AREAS DUE TO SOME DOWNSLOPE WINDS THAT HELPED CLEAR SOME CLOUD COVER AND PROVIDED MUCH MORE SUNSHINE. THICKER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION PROVIDED COOLER TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIKE ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT A SHORTWAVE WILL TRANSLATE OUT OF MS/AL INTO E TN. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME BETWEEN 9PM ET AND MIDNIGHT. THERE COULD ALSO BE RE- DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THIS INITIAL SYSTEM AS UPPER SOUTHWEST FLOW/MOISTURE ADVECTION PERSISTS. A MARGINAL RISK AREA FROM SPC STILL EXISTS FOR SUNDAY SO A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER CLOUD COVER AGAIN SUNDAY SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR STRONGER STORMS. .LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE AT A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THINK SOME OF THE BETTER CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY FURTHER TO OUR NORTH, BUT IN OUR AREA WE WILL SEE ENOUGH CAPE AND SOME SHEAR TO HAVE A THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. AT THIS TIME THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE SIZE HAIL IN SOME OF THE STORMS, BUT STRONG STRAIGHTLINE WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OVERNIGHT THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH FROM THE WEST AND LIKELY END THE SEVERE THREAT FOR THE NIGHT. WE ONLY TAKE A BRIEF BREAK IN RAIN CHANCES BEFORE OUR NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. A LOW MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND BRINGS WITH IT A SURGE OF MOISTURE AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WHEN THE LOW PASSES NEAR AREA SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS DROPS OFF DRAMATICALLY AS THEY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HANDLING THE MID TO LATE WEEK SYSTEMS OVER OUR AREA. WHAT THEY DO AGREE ON IS THAT A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER, THE TIMING AND THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM VARIES WILDLY DEPENDING ON WHICH LONG TERM MODEL YOU LOOK AT. AT THIS TIME IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME PERIODS OF INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND OVERALL MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST WILL HAVE TO WAIT TILL MODEL AGREEMENT IS BETTER IN LATER RUNS.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 64 79 63 78 / 80 60 40 40 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 63 79 63 77 / 80 70 50 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 63 79 63 77 / 80 60 40 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 60 77 59 76 / 90 70 60 20
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ AC/ABM

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