Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 160737 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 337 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 .SHORT TERM.../TODAY AND TONIGHT/...YET ANOTHER EARLY MORNING WITH LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND SOME VISBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO FOG. RAIN SEEMS TO BE OVER FOR NOW...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WHERE THE LOWEST CEILINGS AND VISBYS ARE NOTED. FORECAST GRIDS WERE ON TRACK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT. DEW POINT TEMPS REMAIN QUITE HIGH ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA (NEAR 70 DEGS AT CHA)...SO I ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING OVER FAR ERN COUNTIES... THEN DECREASING CLOUDS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT. LOWERED MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY TO MESH BETTER WITH NWS NEIGHBORS...GOING NEAR OR JUST BELOW THE MOS BLEND. GFS MOS MINS WERE CONSISTENT FROM 12Z DATA AND CLOSELY FOLLOWED. .LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY... BEFORE AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY...THIS DRY BUT COOL NORTHERLY FLOW /ALONG WITH SOME VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE AREA/ WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE COOLER AUTUMN-LIKE AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THEY NORMALLY MIGHT HAVE BEEN...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXPECTED DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKY...DID NOT GET TOO CARRIED AWAY LOWERING THEM AND HAVE MOST LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. BY THE WEEKEND... RIDGING AND THUS INCREASED THICKNESS VALUES/TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALONG WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...PUSHING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S IN MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE NEXT UPPER- TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING THE ONLY SHOT FOR MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION IN OVER A WEEK. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BETWEEN THE MODELS...SO DID NOT GET OVERALLY SPECIFIC YET. HOWEVER...THE BEST WINDOW LOOKS AS IF IT MAY BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ATTM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 83 62 80 58 / 20 10 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 80 59 77 55 / 20 10 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 79 58 78 54 / 20 10 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 77 53 73 50 / 20 10 10 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ TG/AMP

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