Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 280753 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 350 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
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MCV OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY SHOULD WORK ON DEEP MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE OVER THE MID SOUTH AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE MODERATELY STELLAR H- TRIPLE R AND OTHER MODELS INDICATE THE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU THROUGH SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER PROBABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL EAST TENNESSEE. PERHAPS THE LOWEST CHANCE OF RAIN WOULD BE OVER NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. WITH THIS IN MIND APPLIED LIKELY POPS WEST WITH LOWER TO MEDIUM CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE VIEWING AREA. DROPPED POPS OFF GRADUALLY TONIGHT IN THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN. GUIDANCE MAX SCHEME LOOKS GOOD WITH WARMEST MAXES ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES AREA AND SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND ALONG THE PLATEAU WHERE CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD CAP OFF HEATING. MINS SHOULD BE MILD OVERNIGHT IN THE TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. .LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... THE 850-700 MB RIDGE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BUILDS BACK TO THE WEST SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE STABILITY AND LESS POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND WILL HAVE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS THAT FAVOR A DIURNAL TREND NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN. ON SUNDAY A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE OZARKS. THE RETREAT OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AS THE LOW APPROACHES SHOULD ENHANCE SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLOW BEGINNING SUNDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE CLOSED LOW REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY TO OUR WEST OVER THE MS VALLEY...SO THIS SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLOW WILL PERSIST AND MAKE FOR A RATHER WET PERIOD TO START NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE PRECIP CHANCES IN THE LIKELY RANGE FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FAVORING A DIURNAL PATTERN...AND LEAN TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 81 65 86 67 / 60 40 50 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 82 64 84 65 / 60 30 30 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 81 64 84 65 / 60 30 30 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 83 62 85 63 / 40 20 30 20
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$

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