706
FXUS64 KMRX 070245
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1045 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1044 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Only minor changes were made this evening. PoPs were added to
incorporate showers ongoing southwest of the Knoxville area. Also,
temperatures and dew points have generally been higher than
forecast, so they were increased as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(This afternoon through next Sunday)
Issued at 1157 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Key Messages:

1. The region returns to showery and stormy with each day this
week.

2. Temperatures remain hot and humid through at least mid-week
before trending a little below normal for the latter half of the
week.

Discussion:

Today will be the last mostly dry day before isolated to scattered
showers and storms return to the forecast area tomorrow, with
increasing probability further in the week we go.

Tropical Storm Chantal, now Tropical Depression Chantal, is
currently centered just inland over the SC NC line. The most she
will bring to our area today will just be some high clouds. She is
expected to curve towards the Tidewater of VA once arriving to
central NC.

Mostly unrelated to Chantal, there is an isolated chance of a
shower or storm over the plateau and mountains of the forecast
area this afternoon and evening. Just your typical garden variety
pulse storm. SBCAPE sits between 1000-2000+ J/kg over the area
with DCAPEs in the upper 100s to over 1000 J/kg, more than sufficient
for damaging wind gusts. Nearly non-existent shear and low mid-
level lapse rates wouldn`t support hail, although with PWATs over
an inch, would increase the flash flooding threat.

The rest of the week should feature around the same as far as the
near-storm environment. We are not under any severe outlooks from
the SPC for the foreseeable future. WPC ERO does touch our area a
couple of the days this week with a MRGL risk for flash flooding.

Pattern-wise, the set-up looks very familiar to mid to late June,
where troughing and stalled fronts remain mostly to our north. No
notable frontal passage for the forecast period. The better
chance for more widespread precipitation will be Wednesday into
the weekend, where increased lift from shortwave troughs traverse
the flow and sink southward, tracking overhead.

With that in mind and increased cloud cover, the latter half of
the week won`t be as hot, with valley temperatures in the 80s.
Until we get there, expect temperatures as well as dew points to
rise into the middle of the week. Heat indices in some places
during that time could range between the upper 90s to low 100s.

&&

.LONG TERM...

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

VFR conditions and light and variable winds are expected tonight.
On Monday, winds will be westerly with SCT clouds around 5,000
AGL. Increased coverage of showers and storms is expected with
VCTS included at CHA. TYS and TRI have a decent chance of VCTS,
but it was left out because of later timing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             72  95  73  95 /  10  20  10  60
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  71  94  72  93 /  10  20  10  50
Oak Ridge, TN                       70  94  71  93 /  10  30  10  60
Tri Cities Airport, TN              67  90  69  90 /  10  30  10  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM....KS
AVIATION...BW