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000
FXUS64 KMRX 251534 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1034 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
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THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK...WITH NO INDICATIONS OF MAJOR
CHANGES BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVED AND MODEL DATA. THE HRRR SEEMS
TO BE DOING WELL IN DEPICTING THE PRECIP OVER AL AND MS. SOME
EVAPORATION INTO A LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER WILL DELAY PRECIP AT THE
GROUND...WITH THE CHA AREA EXPECTED TO SEE SNOW BEGIN IN THE 20-22Z
WINDOW. STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING
COULD BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW IN SOUTHERN AREAS AROUND 00Z.
EXPECT THAT TIMING AROUND KNOXVILLE AND OAK RIDGE WILL BE
22-00Z...WITH TRI-CITIES AND SW VA APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN 00Z-02Z.
THE WINDOW FOR HEAVY SNOW IS NOT OPEN FOR LONG...AS MIDLEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE BEGINS TO DISAPPEAR IN THE
04-08Z TIME FRAME.

FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS ARE IN LINE WITH THE LATEST SREF...BUT A
LITTLE LOW IN SOME SPOTS COMPARED TO THE LATEST NAM...WHICH SPREADS
3+ INCH AMOUNTS ALL THE WAY INTO THE PLATEAU. THE HRRR IS ON THE
OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM...SHOWING VERY LITTLE SNOW WEST OF OAK
RIDGE. THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER...BUT IT IS NOTABLE THAT THERE IS A
CLUSTER OF SREF MEMBERS THAT SHOW SNOW ACCUMULATION SEVERAL INCHES
ABOVE THE SREF MEAN.

WILL KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS AND THE WARNING/ADVISORY AREAS UNCHANGED
FOR THE UPDATE. TEMPERATURES WILL NEED SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS
AS OBS ARE RUNNING LOWER THAN FORECAST IN SEVERAL SPOTS.
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&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-
     CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-RHEA-
     ROANE-SCOTT TN-SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     BRADLEY-EAST POLK-HAMILTON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-SEQUATCHIE-WEST POLK.

VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.
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&&

$$

DGS