Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 230751 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 251 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF TOWARD OUR AREA AS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL FEED PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...AND LIFT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS INDICATE THERE WILL BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SO WILL MENTION THUNDER FOR SOUTH AND INTO CENTRAL AREAS. WILL CARRY CAT POPS BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY SOUTH...BUT WITH 6 AND 12 HOUR FFG VALUES GENERALLY CLOSE TO OR HIGHER THAN 3 INCHES NO FLOOD WATCH APPEARS WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. OTHER CONCERN IS WIND IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. DEPTH OF STABLE LAYER LOOKS TOO SHALLOW TO FAVOR MOUNTAIN WAVES...AND WIND DIRECTION IS MARGINAL. MAY AT LEAST SEE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA MET TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE SECOND PERIOD ADVISORY SO WILL MENTION IN HWO FOR NOW. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT LIFT WILL PROVIDE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY IN THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY ...WITH WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LOCATIONS...A STAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE. PRECIP WILL DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MOVING IN. HOWEVER...TIMING OF THIS IS DIFFICULT AND WILL ONLY LOWER POPS TO REFLECT THIS. OTHERWISE...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND FAVORED NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN LOCATIONS INTO THURSDAY. OVER THE REST OF THE AREA...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND WILL CONTROL AREA WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. MODEL CONSISTENCY REMAINS POOR DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED. OVERALL...WILL MOVE INTO AN UNSETTLE WEATHER PATTERN WITH A FRONT PUSHING THROUGH AROUND THE SATURDAY TIME FRAME AND AN WET SHORT WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 56 53 62 37 / 100 100 70 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 59 51 63 36 / 100 100 80 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 58 50 62 36 / 100 100 80 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 61 48 63 35 / 90 100 90 40
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ LW/MJB

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