Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 200808 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 408 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS PASSING ACROSS THE REGION MAY INHIBIT HOW WIDESPREAD ANY FROST IS THIS MORNING. ALSO...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS NOTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE FROST ADVISORY AREA. HOWEVER...WILL LET THE FROST ADVISORY RUN ITS COURSE THROUGH 9AM EDT AS TEMPS MAY DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE DAYBREAK. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT DON`T HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO KEPT JUST THE LOW POPS MAINLY FOR SW VA AND NE TN. TIMING WAS TWEAKED A BIT IN LINE WITH THE 00Z NAM AND LATEST SREF...AS 00Z GFS MODEL AND MOS WERE DELAYED (ARRIVED JUST IN TIME FOR THE AFD). OTHERWISE...NAM MOS TEMPS VERY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS GRIDS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND WERE CLOSELY FOLLOWED. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN CURRENT FORECAST AS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM OVER THE NE STATES AFFECTS MAINLY SW VA AND NE TN TUESDAY AND THEN BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GFS MUCH DRIER WITH SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN LAKES...MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ALMOST NO CHANCE OF SHOWERS JUST CLOUDS. STILL PREFERRING THE NAM WHICH BRINGS IN A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE FOR SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES DUE TO CLOUDS OVER SW VA BUT COLDER AIR MASS WITH NW FLOW TO LAG BEHIND SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHERE NO WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT A WIND SHIFT. HIGHS TUESDAY ABOUT THE SAME SOUTHERN HALF AND A FEW DEGREES COOLER AT TRI CITIES. COOLER DAYS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN STATES. THEN AS THE EASTERN SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EAST UPPER FLOW TURNS WESTERLY. GFS SHOWS A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACH FRIDAY AND THEN RIDGING TAKES OVER AND BUILDS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 70 49 71 45 / 10 10 0 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 67 48 67 43 / 10 10 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 67 49 67 43 / 10 10 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 65 46 62 40 / 10 20 20 20 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY. TN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR EAST POLK-HANCOCK- HAWKINS-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE- SULLIVAN-WASHINGTON TN. VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT- WASHINGTON-WISE. && $$ TG/TD

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