Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 251534 AAA AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 1034 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015 .DISCUSSION...
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THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK...WITH NO INDICATIONS OF MAJOR CHANGES BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVED AND MODEL DATA. THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE DOING WELL IN DEPICTING THE PRECIP OVER AL AND MS. SOME EVAPORATION INTO A LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER WILL DELAY PRECIP AT THE GROUND...WITH THE CHA AREA EXPECTED TO SEE SNOW BEGIN IN THE 20-22Z WINDOW. STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING COULD BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW IN SOUTHERN AREAS AROUND 00Z. EXPECT THAT TIMING AROUND KNOXVILLE AND OAK RIDGE WILL BE 22-00Z...WITH TRI-CITIES AND SW VA APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN 00Z-02Z. THE WINDOW FOR HEAVY SNOW IS NOT OPEN FOR LONG...AS MIDLEVEL MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE BEGINS TO DISAPPEAR IN THE 04-08Z TIME FRAME. FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS ARE IN LINE WITH THE LATEST SREF...BUT A LITTLE LOW IN SOME SPOTS COMPARED TO THE LATEST NAM...WHICH SPREADS 3+ INCH AMOUNTS ALL THE WAY INTO THE PLATEAU. THE HRRR IS ON THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM...SHOWING VERY LITTLE SNOW WEST OF OAK RIDGE. THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER...BUT IT IS NOTABLE THAT THERE IS A CLUSTER OF SREF MEMBERS THAT SHOW SNOW ACCUMULATION SEVERAL INCHES ABOVE THE SREF MEAN. WILL KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS AND THE WARNING/ADVISORY AREAS UNCHANGED FOR THE UPDATE. TEMPERATURES WILL NEED SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS AS OBS ARE RUNNING LOWER THAN FORECAST IN SEVERAL SPOTS.
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY. TN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS- JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE- CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HANCOCK-HAWKINS- JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER- NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-RHEA- ROANE-SCOTT TN-SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR BRADLEY-EAST POLK-HAMILTON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NORTHWEST MONROE-SEQUATCHIE-WEST POLK. VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.
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&& $$ DGS

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