Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 180754 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 254 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)...An area of surface high pressure will move across the area today and quickly off to our east. This will allow moisture to make a quick return tonight. After a dry and warm day today with quite a bit of sunshine, clouds will be on the increase from southwest to northeast late today into tonight. An area of isentropic lift will move northeast across the area tonight, but forcing is not expected to be very strong so precipitation amounts with this round of rain should be on the light side. Will only make minor tweaks to MAV temps, mostly to trim a degree or two from some highs today. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)...The longwave pattern will continue to be dominated by troughing over the western U.S. and ridging over the southeastern coast. This will keep our area under a persistently warm and humid regime overall. The next organized weather system will spread showers and isolated thunderstorms across the forecast area especially Wed afternoon and Wed night. GFS and ECMWF begin to diverge thereafter, with the GFS having moved the front to our south, while the ECMWF has it retreated back to the north as a warm front. Thus, for late in the period, ECMWF is warmer and drier while the GFS is only then retreating the front northward as a showery warm front. Held pops mostly in the chance category for Thursday night through Saturday, then increased to likely Saturday night with both models bringing cold front back into the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 54 69 57 / 10 70 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 51 68 56 / 10 60 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 60 50 69 56 / 10 60 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 44 69 49 / 10 60 30 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ LW/GC

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