Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 250647 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 247 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
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Another quiet night across the region with the showers in Western/Middle Tennessee quickly fading as they move east. Likely they will not make it to our neck of the woods, but will help bring an increase in mid level clouds. Despite the increased cloud coverage we will still see very warm temperatures today. These warm temperatures combined with some moisture in the atmosphere will lead to a slight chance for precipitation later. Chances look very slim, but will have a few locations with slight chance PoPs for later today. .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... Upper-level ridge of high pressure will be the dominant weather feature across the Tennessee Valley...through the end of the work week. Abundant moisture underneath this ridge will allow for some isolated to widely scattered diurnal convection each afternoon... with the Plateau and Smoky Mountains being favored. This ridge will gradually shift northeast over the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday...which will open the door for a weak tropical disturbance to possibly drift toward the region this Holiday weekend. There is some model disagreement on the track and intensity of this feature...but the early run of the NAM...as well as the GFS indicate it may move ashore into SC/NC...and generate cloud cover and much better chances for showers and storms for Sunday and Monday. The ECMWF is much less excited about this...and shows this feature remaining off shore. Will continue to monitor this potential in the coming days...as this will have a large impact on PoP...sky...and temperature forecasts for Sunday and especially for Memorial Day...and those with outdoor plans. For now...have better coverage for scattered convection each day through the end of the weekend. High temperatures will reach the mid to upper 80s Thursday and Friday...with readings a touch cooler for during the long weekend.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 65 88 66 / 10 10 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 63 86 66 / 10 10 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 85 63 87 65 / 10 20 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 60 85 62 / 10 10 20 10
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ ABM/AMP

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