Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 262022 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 322 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...
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A 850-700 MB TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE TO STRENGTHEN COLD ADVECTION ALOFT. THIS WILL CREATE SOME LAPSE RATES FAVORABLE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SW VA AND NE TN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 C FRIDAY MORNING...HIGHS FRIDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD TIGHT IN THE VALLEY OVERNIGHT...BUT A DOWNSLOPE NW WIND OFF THE PLATEAU MAY HELP ERODE SOME CLOUDS IN THE VALLEY TOMORROW. .LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THURSDAY)... COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FORECAST AREA DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LAST COLD NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY. KEPT SATURDAY MORNING AND DAY TIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE DUE TO ANTICIPATED SNOW COVER LINGERING. MODELS SHOW MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE EAST TN VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION COULD GIVE THE AREA SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S EARLY AND THEN MAY RISE LATER AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW COULD AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. SUNDAY AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE TN VALLEY BEHIND WARM FRONT BUT MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL AID IN MELTING THE SNOW COVER. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS BACK SOUTH SOMEWHAT. THEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL HEAD NORTHEAST. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST. GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND ALSO HEAVY RAINFALL. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A CONCERN FOR FLOODING WITH THIS SYSTEM ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS STILL SOME SNOWPACK IN THE MOUNTAINS. THEN ANOTHER FRONT WITH SOME COLD AIR BEHIND IT WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL STAY HIGH THROUGH THURSDAY AS SECOND FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 24 36 23 44 / 10 10 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 23 32 20 41 / 10 10 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 22 33 19 42 / 10 10 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 21 28 16 39 / 20 20 10 10
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DGS/TD

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