901
FXUS64 KMRX 070616
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
216 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 154 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Key Messages:

1. Today marks the transition to a more active pattern, with a
steady uptick in afternoon and evening rain chances expected
through the week.

Discussion:

Chantal will pull away to the northeast today push offshore along
the New England coastline, while weak troughing settles in across
the eastern United States and upper ridging shifts to the desert
southwest. A weak shortwave embedded in the developing trough will
move east across Kentucky today, allowing for scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms across middle Tennessee. Some convection
is expected across the plateau and the mountains today as well but
expect more limited coverage this far east. This general upper
level pattern will hold through much of the week as another
shortwave moves through the Ohio valley and Kentucky late Tuesday
night into Wednesday followed by additional disturbances later in
the week. In the lower levels, we`ll keep a tap on western Gulf
moisture through the week, which will allow for a notable uptick
in afternoon and evening rain chances, especially for Wednesday
onward. Although Wednesday may feature a few stronger storms with
(on a relative basis) better shear in place due to the Ohio
valley shortwave and surface based CAPE values around or slightly
above 1,500 J/kg possible, nothing really points to any notable
severe weather chances through the period.

Lastly, temperatures will be right around normal thanks to less
ridging aloft, and additional cloud cover and rain chances from a
more active pattern. It will be humid however, so muggy conditions
seem to be on tap.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 154 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

A couple of ISOLD SHRA/TSRA continue in the central and northern TN
valley early this morning but they should not come within 10SM
of either KTYS or KTRI. Otherwise, today will feature a more
robust afternoon CU field with scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA in
middle TN and the Cumberland plateau. Uncertain if these will
filter into the valley or not, but there`s enough of a signal to
include a VCTS at both KCHA and KTRI. The latter should be more
towards 00z thanks to a later arrival of upper support. Flight
categories should be VFR through the period, along with light
winds too.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             95  72  95  72 /  20  10  60  20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  93  72  93  72 /  30  10  50  20
Oak Ridge, TN                       92  70  92  71 /  30  10  60  20
Tri Cities Airport, TN              90  68  90  68 /  20  10  50  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CD
LONG TERM....CD
AVIATION...CD