Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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976 FXUS64 KMRX 161948 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 248 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Tonight and Friday)...Surface high pressure will continue to extend into our area as the upper level ridge centered to our west builds east. Will be some mainly high/mid clouds around tonight especially north, which will then decrease on Friday. After seasonable low temperatures tonight, it will be warmer Friday with temperatures climbing to well above normal. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)... Upper level SW flow Friday night will advect moisture into the area and clouds will start to increase ahead of a closed low tracking across OK/AR/TX. This looks to be a favorable setup for deep convection near the Gulf Coast, which would cut off much of the moisture flow to our area. Therefore, continue to think that precip will be light Saturday and Saturday night as the low moves across Tennessee. Have limited POPs to chance categories because of this. Upper level deep ridging and associated surface high pressure will build in for Sunday through Tuesday, providing mostly clear skies and above normal temperatures. Highs should peak around 70 degrees Monday and Tuesday. Clouds begin to build back into the area Tuesday afternoon, under SW flow again ahead of the next low pressure system. This low is progged to track even further south, moving across TX and into the Gulf of Mexico, which again would trigger convection across the Gulf Coast and limit moisture advection over the Tennessee Valley. For now, have limited POPs associated with this system around 30 percent due to uncertainty on how much moisture will be available over our area.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 34 67 45 58 / 0 0 10 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 33 64 41 57 / 0 0 0 40 Oak Ridge, TN 34 65 41 57 / 0 0 0 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 27 63 36 58 / 0 0 0 30
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ LW/EMH

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