Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 181910 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 310 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
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A weak frontal boundary has slowly sagged south into the northern Plateau and the Cumberland Mountains of SW Virginia. This feature continues to kick off some scattered showers and thunderstorms along the KY border...which will continue through at least the evening hours. Additional scattered diurnal convection is also firing along the Southern Plateau and Valley. The atmosphere has been worked over form the earlier storms and rainfall that occurred this morning...but some peaks of sunshine have allowed for some modest instability to occur over the Southern Valley (where 1000 j/kg ML CAPES were observed). As a result...a few strong storms are possible through sunset. After midnight...this activity will diminish save for a few isolated showers and storms (mainly along the boundary). With some breaks in the clouds and the moist boundary layer...patchy fog will be possible around daybreak...and have made a mention of it in the forecast. For Friday...convection looks to fire again along the boundary as it sags further south into the region. Models are hinting at the southern half of the region being most favored from the late morning through the afternoon. However...this activity should be scattered (to numerous by the afternoon)...and thus most locations will see some decent coverage. A localized strong storm is not out of the question. The greater storm coverage and cloud cover should keep highs from reaching the 90s in most locations...with lower 80s possible for NE TN and SW VA. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Will remain in an unsettled weather pattern through the weekend as a cold front approaches the area. Deep low level moisture in place combined with weak lift from and boundary stretched across the region and diurnal heating will allow a chance of convection each period Friday night through Saturday night. On Sunday...the cold front will move through for likely pops and an organized line of convection. Behind the front...drier air will move in and will see dry conditions with near normal temperatures over the area Monday and Tuesday. Southerly flow develops over the area for Wednesday and Thursday allowing for a return of moisture and an increase chance of convection over higher terrain and southern locations.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 89 72 88 / 30 60 40 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 87 70 85 / 30 60 40 60 Oak Ridge, TN 71 85 70 85 / 30 60 40 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 84 67 83 / 30 50 40 50
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ AMP/MJB

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