Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 090811 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 311 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 .SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
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UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SLOW-MOVING BROAD UPPER TROUGH...BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ARE STILL MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE VALLEY LIKELY TO SEE A DUSTING TO AN INCH BY SUNRISE. SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...SW VIRGINIA AND FAR NE TENNESSEE. ADDITIONALLY...LOCATIONS ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE STEADY MODERATE SNOW BANDS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WELL INTO DAY TODAY...RESULTING IN GREATER ACCUMULATIONS IN THOSE AREAS /WHERE A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT/. UNDERNEATH THE BANDS...LOW VISIBILITIES DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR...ALONG WITH QUICK ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO THE SUBFREEZING SURFACES. THUS...ANY UNTREATED ROADS COULD BE SLICK FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE BY THE EVENING. THANKS TO AN ADDITIONAL SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THE OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT DUE TO NORTHWEST FLOW...THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW AND THUS HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE PEAKS OF THE SMOKIES. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN THE WSW THERE. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER HALF INCH TO PERHAPS INCH IN SOME SPOTS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VALLEY TODAY. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP WITH THAT SHORTWAVE PASSAGE THIS EVENING...AND COMBINED WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE...MAKE FOR SOME DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL...SO HAVE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR THOSE ZONES OVERNIGHT. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES COMING TO AN END AND CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODING. FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A WEAK WAVE MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. MODELS AGREE THAT SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL LIMITED EFFECTS. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH DRY CONDITIONS...BUT ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES RETURNING ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA/NORTHEAST TENNESSEE. AN ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ECMWF SEEMS TO BE STRONGER OF THE MODELS. CONFIDENCE ON STRENGTH AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS LOW...AND WILL FOLLOW ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CLOSELY.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 34 21 33 20 / 40 30 10 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 31 19 29 17 / 70 30 20 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 32 20 29 17 / 70 40 20 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 29 18 25 13 / 70 50 40 10
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CHEROKEE- CLAY. TN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST THURSDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON- SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE- SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON- MARION-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-UNION. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR BRADLEY- HAMILTON-MCMINN-MEIGS-WEST POLK. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CAMPBELL- CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER- NORTHWEST GREENE-SCOTT TN-SULLIVAN-WASHINGTON TN. VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL- SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE. && $$ AMP/DH

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