Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 170713 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 313 AM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today and tonight)...Not a lot of change in the overall pattern for the short term. Models again depicting best chance for convection to fire in the higher terrain of the eastern mountains and to a lesser extent across northern portions of the area, so will include chance PoPs in these areas with just slight chance elsewhere. Tonight expect any lingering convection to diminish fairly quickly once again. Should be very warm/hot this afternoon as expect quite a bit of sunshine. MAV temps generally look reasonable so will stay close. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)...An upper trough is forecast to build into the Eastern United States through the early part of the week and exit by Wednesday. A cold front will accompany the upper feature generating a large area of showers and thunderstorms across the Ohio Valley into the Mid South during the day Sunday. The associated outflow boundary will build further south into the Southern Appalachians Sunday night into Monday. Strong to severe convection is possible during this period in a moderately to strongly unstable, albeit weakly sheared environment. The action moves out of most of the forecast area by Tuesday morning, but held onto a small chance for a few showers at this time step due to uncertainty in system departure. The forecast area should be able to enjoy a quieter Wednesday and Thursday. However another, less amplified trough moves across the Great Lakes and into New England at the end of the long term forecast bringing a small chance for convection on Friday. Temperatures moderate briefly due to the precipitation on Monday and the weak cool air advection in the northerly flow behind the front on Tuesday. Then its back to gradually increasing heat and humidity later in the period.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 70 89 72 / 20 10 20 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 69 88 70 / 20 10 20 50 Oak Ridge, TN 90 69 88 70 / 20 10 20 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 66 86 67 / 30 10 20 50
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$

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