Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 281914 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 314 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...THE BIG STORY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM IS THE DWINDLING CHANCES FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP. THINGS KEEP TRENDING DRIER WITH EACH PASSING MODEL RUN. WE STILL HAVE THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OUT OF THE NW AND THE LOW COMING NORTH UP OUT OF THE GULF. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS LIKE THE TROUGH WILL HELP TO STEER THE LOW TO THE SE OF US FOR THE MOST PART...THUS LIMITING THE CHANCES FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN NOW LOOK TO START LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH ARE AREA. ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH IS A 60 TO 70KT 300MB JET THAT WILL HELP TO GENERATE SHOWERS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON DUE TO A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG CAPE SHOWING UP IN THE NAM SOUNDINGS. PRECIP TOTALS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM LOOK UNIMPRESSIVE COMPARED TO WHAT THE MODELS WERE PREVIOUSLY SHOWING ACROSS PARTS OF OUR AREA. HIGHEST PRECIP TOTALS SHOULD BE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND DOWN INTO SWNC BUT STILL THESE LOCATIONS WILL ONLY SEE AMOUNTS OF THREE TO FOUR TENTHS OF INCH OR LESS. OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA MAY SEE A TENTH OR TWO. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER. TOMORROWS TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A FAIRLY BENIGN FORECAST FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER-RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME WIDESPREAD PATCHY FOG LATE MONDAY NIGHT. BUT...WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BY MID-MORNING ON TUESDAY ONCE DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES. THE MOSTLY SUNNY/DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH THURSDAY. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER MORE POTENT FAST- MOVING UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW AS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S WILL BE COMMON THIS WEEKEND AS THIS COOL/DRY AUTUMN AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 64 80 61 83 / 50 50 20 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 63 79 59 82 / 50 50 20 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 62 79 59 81 / 40 50 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 57 76 55 76 / 60 70 20 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SR/AMP

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