Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMRX 241838
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
238 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA...AND LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL ALLOW SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN.  THE CURRENT AFTERNOON
CONVECTION SOUTH AND CENTRAL IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  MODEL SOUNDINGS LOOK QUITE CAPPED NORTHEAST
MONDAY...BUT ACROSS SOUTH AND WEST ZONES THE CAP MAY BE WEAK ENOUGH
FOR SOME LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION...SO WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THERE MONDAY AFTERNOON. MAV TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK REASONABLE SO
WILL STAY CLOSE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...PROMOTING MOSTLY SUNNY...WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS THANKS TO STRONGER CAP THAT WILL SUPPRESS
DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL
BRIEFLY RETROGRADE TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME CONVECTION TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA FORM THE OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE WILL
THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR AT FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY THE
FIRST HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BEFORE A BROAD TROUGH SWEEPS A
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA AND GIVES THE REGION ITS BEST SHOT AT
RAINFALL IN OVER A WEEK. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...SO HAVE REMAINED CAUTIOUS WITH POPS FOR DAYS 6 AND 7.
BUT...GIVEN THAT THE GFS CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER AND CLOSER TO
THE ECMWF SOLUTION...CONTINUED TO SLOWLY TREND TOWARD THAT.
ALSO...GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS AND GOOD HEATING EXPECTED UNDER THE
RIDGE...HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO FOR MOST OF THE WORK
WEEK.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             72  89  67  91 /  20  20  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  70  88  65  88 /  20  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       69  89  66  89 /  20  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              62  86  56  86 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

LW/AMP



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