Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 190714
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
314 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
The high pressure ridge centered over West TN will be the dominant
feature through the period. Today, a weak shortwave trough over the
Ohio Valley this morning will track SE and bring some scattered
showers and thunderstorms to the area. The latest model trends
suggest a lower pop is needed for today than previously forecast.
The NAM continues to be the more bullish model for precip, but it
has overplayed things a bit the last few days. Will follow the
downward trend with pops in the low chance range for the northern
half today. The mountains and SE TN/SW NC appear to have the best
precip chances based on timing of the shortwave trough this
afternoon.

The 850 mb ridge begins to take on a more SW-NE orientation
tonight, with its axis across KY and VA on Wednesday. Meanwhile the
surface high becomes positioned over NY/PA, which feeds some lower
dewpoints into our area. These factors should reduce precip chances
Wednesday and Thursday to near zero. Both the NAM and GFS have
forecast soundings that are quite dry and stable both days. The
building ridge aloft will also keep temperatures hot, with lower to
mid 90s for highs across the Valley, pushing the upper 90s near
CHA. Thankfully, afternoon dewpoints in the 60s should help keep
the heat index below 100.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
The period begins with just a slight chance for a showers and
thunderstorms but the probability of convection gradually increases
through the weekend with the assistance of the passage of a couple
weak upper level waves dropping southeast around the front side of
the massive South Central U.S. ridge. By Monday, a weak cool front
will shift south through the Ohio Valley toward the region bringing
a little better chance for convection to the Southern Appalachians.
Above normal temperatures will continue but will abate slightly
later in the weekend into the beginning of the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             95  73  96  71 /  40  30   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  93  71  94  69 /  30  20   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       94  71  95  69 /  30  20   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              91  65  92  63 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$
24/99



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