Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 291855 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 255 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...
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WILL TRANSITION INTO AN UNSETTLE WEATHER PATTERN. UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIONED OVER THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE AIR MASS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP EARLY IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. LARGER COVERAGE AND GREATER INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY. .LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN STATES AND TROUGHING IN THE EAST WILL KEEP AN UNSETTLED PATTERN GOING. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST TO ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PUSHING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST REGION. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED FOR THE OHIO VALLEY AT THAT TIME...SO STILL CAN`T RULE OUT AT LEAST DIURNAL CONVECTION FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THUS...THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS MIRED DOWN WITH SOME DEGREE OF CHANCE POPS EVERY PERIOD FOR NOW. INTRODUCING MONDAY (NEW DAY 7) WITH CHANCE POPS DAYTIME AND MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT. THE MOST ORGANIZED CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NUDGED POPS UP TO HIGH END OF LIKELY TO LOW END OF CATEGORICAL FOR THURSDAY...WITH GOOD CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS POP GRIDS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR TEMPS...HIGHS STAYING MAINLY IN THE 70S TO MID 80S INITIALLY... THEN WARMING SLIGHTLY UP TO UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS SRN AREAS LATER PERIODS. SEASONAL MINS THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 68 86 69 83 / 30 60 50 60 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 67 84 66 81 / 30 60 60 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 67 84 67 80 / 30 60 60 60 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 64 80 62 77 / 40 60 60 60
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ MJB/TG

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