Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 151853 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 253 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017 .SHORT TERM (Tonight and Wednesday)...
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Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will linger over the area this evening. PWs remain high with values around 2 inches...however..there is little instability to work with...so main concern will continue to be the potential for heavy rainfall. Much of the lingering activity should end overnight with only minimal showers possible. On Wednesday...an old boundary to our south will lift north across the area as a warm front. This will act as the main focus for afternoon convective activity. Instability and upper support remain low but PWs will stay around the 2 inch mark. This will again translate to the main concern being the potential of heavy rains. Also...temperatures will be warmer with highs expected to reach into the 80s and low 90s. .LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Tuesday)...A ridge near the Gulf coast will keep the Southern Appalachian region in a westerly flow through the end of the work week. This will maintain the humid air mass with PW values of 1.75 to 2 inches. Little forcing in the moist air mass will mean mainly diurnally- driven storms on Thursday. Coverage will generally be scattered to isolated in the afternoon, and favor the higher terrain. But some weak forcing ahead of a shortwave trough and surface front may bring an increase in coverage late Thursday night/Friday morning, mainly for northern sections. Passage of the front/trough around midday Friday will be folllowed by drier air through the column in the afternoon. The ridge to our south retrogrades over TX for the weekend, putting our area in a weak west to northwest flow through Tuesday. This should result in PW values The models do not show any significant forcing or boundaries near our area during this period, so the forecast will lean toward a typcial summer pattern of isolated afternoon convection that favors the higher terrain, and temperatures near normal.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 92 75 91 / 30 30 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 89 72 90 / 30 30 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 71 89 72 90 / 20 30 20 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 86 68 88 / 20 20 20 30
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ MJB/DGS

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