875
FXUS65 KMSO 150811
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
211 AM MDT Wed May 15 2024

.DISCUSSION...The forecast has remained relatively stable the last
24hrs, with very little changes being made. Model guidance
continues to show a trough moving south from Canada into
the region on Thursday and Friday, primarily bringing gusty winds.
There`s a high probability (70-90%) of widespread wind gusts
reaching 30 mph, with some areas, especially mid-slopes and higher
elevations, seeing gusts of 40 mph. Lakes, notably Flathead Lake,
can anticipate choppy conditions in the afternoon and evening.
However, there`s uncertainty about the depth of this trough,
leading to uncertain precipitation forecasts on Friday for most of
the region, although northwest Montana is expected to have
showery conditions.

Forecast ensemble models remain uncertain with the finer details
with the incoming trough of low pressure over the weekend and
next week. While the majority remain in good agreement with at
least showery conditions and near seasonable temperatures. 30-40
percent of the models still want to show a much cooler and wetter
solution, potentially leading to mountain snow accumulations. If
you have outdoor plans this weekend and early next week, at least
plan for periodic rainshowers and breezy westerly winds.


&&

.AVIATION...Most of the region will remain dry today, with only
locations along the Canadian Border under threat for light
isolated rainshowers. Most aviation sites in western Montana can
expect to experience an increase in west-northwest winds this
afternoon, with gusts around 20kts from 15/1900Z-15/2300Z



&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$