Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
FXUS65 KMSO 131045
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
345 AM MST Fri Dec 13 2013
Today...A weak weather disturbance will be exiting the Northern
Rockies region this morning. Precipitation associated with this
feature has fallen as snow leaving many road surfaces across
western Montana and the Idaho Panhandle snow-covered with slick
driving conditions for the morning commute. The upper flow pattern
will becoming northwesterly following this morning`s disturbance.
There is still moisture caught up in the flow and snow will
remain in the forecast, but will be targeting the mountains more
so than valley locations.
Saturday through Sunday...A rather moist and mild west to northwest
flow is still being advertised by the forecast models. Warmer
temperatures may start breaking up ice in smaller streams. This
breakup does increase the possibilities of ice becoming jammed in
congested stretches of some creeks and smaller streams with localized
low-lying flooding. Right now, confidence in any flooding occurring
is low, but the potential exists. As mentioned in an earlier
discussion, the streams that are prone to these break up ice jam
situations are Lolo and Rattlesnake Creeks, Flower Creek (Libby),
Orofino Creek, and Warm Springs Creek (Anaconda).
The moist west to northwest flow should produce periods of light
precipitation...mainly in northwest Montana into Monday. The
precipitation should be in the form of light snow in the
mountains, but possible patchy freezing drizzle or rain in some
northwest Montana valleys during the night and early morning
hours. Otherwise, generally dry conditions can be expected.
Longer term models continue to show a moist and colder pattern
possibly setting up toward the mid to end of next week. Thus,
began to trend temperatures towards the colder solution for
Thursday and Friday.
.AVIATION...Snow showers will bring lower ceilings and visibility
at times, and obscure the area terrain across north central Idaho
and western Montana today. As of 10Z, we currently have snow
showers impacting KGPI and KMSO and is expected linger around but
weaken throughout the day today. KBTM and KSMN could see a quick
shot of snow during the morning hours but is expected to decrease
by the afternoon. Another weather disturbance is expected tonight
bringing more snow showers mainly impacting KGPI and KMSO.
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