Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 220940

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
340 AM MDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...Today and Sunday will be quite similar to one
another across the Northern Rockies. With high pressure still very
much in place, expect the weekend to be warm and dry, though much
less windy in many locations. In fact, lack of substantial winds
overnight tonight and Sunday could lead to increased wildfire
smoke settling into valleys across western Montana (and to a
lesser extent: north central Idaho valleys). Air quality is likely
to degrade in the coming days as a result of increase smoke in
valleys. Please visit the Department of Environmental Quality
website for either the state of Montana or Idaho for the most up-
to-date air quality forecasts.

A shift in the general weather pattern will occur going into next
week, with a more active pattern setting up Monday through
Wednesday. Forecast models continue to show pulses of monsoon
moisture moving north into the Northern Rockies, which will create
a prime scenario for afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day
during this time period. At this time, it does appear that
thunderstorms could be very wet, meaning: with precipitable water
content being high (as a result of the monsoonal push of
moisture), any thunderstorms that occur could have the ability to
drop heavy rainfall in brief periods of time.

This scenario becomes especially true by Wednesday, where rainfall
chances will become widespread across the region and could impact
most of western Montana and north central Idaho through the day.
While not a prolonged period of rainfall but any means, it
certainly could aid ongoing wildfire suppression efforts by some
much-needed rainfall. We will keep an eye on this situation in the
coming days and see if this wetter pattern continues to hold going

By the end of the week into next weekend, the active pattern seems
to end, thus returning the Northern Rockies back to dry and hot
pattern once again.


.AVIATION...Another dry and stable day ahead for western Montana
and central Idaho as high pressure continues. Stable conditions
overnight may cause smoke from area wildfires to settle into area
valleys, causing minor reductions in visibility after 23/0600Z.
Terminals most affected by smoke should be KMSO, KBTM, and KSMN.



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