Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 210941

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
341 AM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...Skies have again cleared enough in northwest
Montana for fog to develop which will be around through mid
morning. Rain showers linger this morning but there is an overall
decreasing precipitation trend that will extend into the late
morning. Rain will begin to increase in coverage this afternoon,
but the highest chances are forecast to be tonight for north
central Idaho and northwest/west central Montana. Showers will
continue into the morning before decreasing by Saturday
afternoon, though, northwest Montana may see rain showers through
the afternoon.

Skies will clear enough Saturday night for fog to develop in many
valleys locations throughout the region. Fog that does form will
likely remain at least until mid Sunday morning. Other than the
fog, Sunday looks to be a mostly dry day with above average high

MONDAY confidence remains pretty good for another dry day with
temps above normal in the upper 50s and a good deal of sun under
high pressure. This ridge will be pushed eastward as the first in
another series of weather systems noses its way into the Northern

An upper low sitting off the Oregon and California coast and it`s
associated 120-140 kt jet will tap into some pretty moist air in
the subtropics and draw it northeastward into Idaho MONDAY NIGHT and
encompassing western Montana by TUESDAY MORNING.

Synoptic models keep this low off the California coast through the
end of next week. As it sits and spins expect periodic storm
systems to move into the region and produce some widespread
precipitation, especially in the mountains. Storm systems spinning
off these closed lows can be difficult to identify 5 days out and
beyond so confidence on timing and how much precip is somewhat low
now. HOWEVER confidence is pretty good that Wednesday through
Saturday next week will have a few storm systems move through the
area and produce some good precip amounts to add on to a near
record wet October in some places. TEMPERATURES will be at or
above normal all next week (valley temps in the 50s) with SNOW
LEVELS fairly high varying from 6000-7000 feet in NW Montana to
6500-8000 feet south.


.AVIATION...Rain showers will linger this morning in north central
Idaho and west central Montana. Cloud cover cleared enough in
northwest Montana that fog has develop early this morning. KGPI
has been the most impacted by dense fog, but there are a lot of
observations with 100 percent humidity so additional fog
development is likely. Impacts from fog will remain through mid
morning. Cloud cover will continue to lead to obscured terrain
through today, and precipitation will increase in coverage by
this evening. Persistent rain will lower ceilings overnight and
through Saturday morning.



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