Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 181004

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
404 AM MDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...A cold front is passing through Idaho and western
Montana early this morning and will keep rain showers into this
morning. Conditions will dry out behind the front with the
exception being northwest Montana where showers will pass for much
of the day. Behind this cold front, gusty west winds will develop
today. Winds will increase through this morning and reach their
peak around mid-afternoon. Widespread wind gusts between 30-35 mph
can be expected though winds as high as 40 mph are possible. These
winds are going to make for choppy conditions on area lakes,
particularly Flathead Lake and Whitefish Lake where a lake wind
advisory is in effect.

Showers, cloud cover, and wind are going to decrease through this
evening as high pressure again takes hold of Idaho and western
Montana. Patchy fog remains in the forecast for early Saturday
morning, but wind this afternoon will likely cause fog to be very
isolated and of little impact. High temperatures are going to warm
nicely on Saturday but cloud cover will increase through the day
ahead of the next cold front. This cold front is on track to pass
late Saturday evening with gusty winds and rain showers to
associate. Temperatures will be a little cooler on Sunday with
general spring-time winds.

Warm temperatures will again return for Monday but the big story
is the high likelihood for a more robust weather system beginning
Tuesday. The predictability for a mid- week trough is quite high
which translates to high confidence in the weather system. Though
confidence is high for this trough to affect the region there are
important details that still need to be worked out. Some of these
details include, how much moisture will fall, how low will snow
levels drop to, will the trough and cold front quickly pass
through the region or will it develop into a slower moving/higher
impact system. At this time there are modest chances for moderate
rain ahead of the cold front followed by snow along the Continental
Divide. This upcoming weather system will continue to be closely
monitored and we will pass along additional information as details
become more clear.


.AVIATION...A cold front continues to pass through the region this
morning with rain and and lowered ceilings common. Precipitation
will decrease though north central Idaho and western Montana this
morning and west winds will begin to increase. The main upper level
wave will move across northwest Montana today and help to initiate
rain and snow showers, some of which could help to bring down strong
gusty winds near 40 knots especially at KGPI, across Glacier
National Park south to KMSO between 18/1800z and 19/0000z. Terrain
obscurations will continue through today, although, terminals
KMSO, KBTM, and KSMN could see some improvement later in the day
with slightly drier air working in. High pressure will return for
tonight causing decreasing cloud cover.


MT...LAKE WIND ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening Flathead/Mission Valleys.




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