Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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000
FXUS65 KMSO 210936
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
335 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...The main area of lift is going to shift over north
central Idaho and west central Montana by sunrise this morning
with light to moderate rain and a few lightning strikes. A cold
front will move through this morning causing snow levels to lower
to around 5000 feet by this afternoon, so watch out for snow
accumulations in the high terrain and over mountain passes.
Temperatures have remained warm overnight and cooler air behind
the cold front will also generally cause a cooling trend through
the day.

The main shortwave with this system will pass this afternoon with Lemhi
County Idaho and southwest Montana expecting to receive the
heaviest amount of precipitation. Precipitation will quickly
decrease this evening as the trough moves off to the east and
drier air moves in.

Wednesday now looks to be mostly dry with morning fog as weak high
pressure moves over Idaho and western Montana.

A steady stream of moisture, evident on water vapor imagery,
extends through the eastern Pacific and is forecast to pass
through the region during the end of the week and this weekend in
the form of multiple troughs. This weather pattern for the
extended forecast period will promote near normal high
temperatures, above normal low temperatures, and periods of rain.

&&

.AVIATION...Cloud cover and rain are increasing early this morning
as the next weather system moves into the region. Idaho and
western Montana will lie in the optimum lift region this morning
with moderate rain showers and even a few lightning strikes
likely. Terrain will be obscured through most of the day with high
amounts of moisture passing with the trough. This trough will pass
this afternoon keeping rain and high elevation snow in eastern
Idaho and southwest Montana. Sky cover will begin to clear out
this evening and fog will develop in many of the valleys through
the region by Wednesday morning.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Noon today to 6 AM MDT Wednesday
     ABOVE 6000 FEET for the Butte/Blackfoot Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM this morning to 6 AM MDT
     Wednesday ABOVE 5000 FEET for the Bitterroot/Sapphire
     Mountains.

ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 AM early this morning to 5 AM PDT
     Wednesday ABOVE 5000 FEET for the Southern Clearwater
     Mountains.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 AM this morning to 6 AM MDT
     Wednesday for Lolo Pass and Lost Trail Pass in the Eastern
     Lemhi County.

&&

$$




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