Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 012035
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
235 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...Warm conditions will continue this afternoon with
the potential for a few thunderstorms across mainly southwest
Montana and Lemhi County in Idaho.

For Saturday, the ridge of high pressure that has brought
unseasonably warm temperatures the last few days will flatten. At
the same time, a disturbance moves through the flow aloft, which
will increase cloud cover and bring the potential for showers and
thunderstorms to western Montana. The highest potential for
showers/thunderstorms will be across far northwest Montana, with
chances decreasing south of Missoula. Cloud cover and the
flattening ridge will help to cool temperatures several degrees
over today.

For the rest of the July 4th weekend, persistent southwest flow
will allow for seasonable temperatures and breezy conditions.
Thunderstorms still look possible, especially Sunday afternoon for
locations south and east of Missoula. Breezy conditions are
expected each afternoon, with the breeziest afternoon expected on
Monday. Dry conditions coupled with wind will cause increased fire
danger.

Forecast models continue to show a trough of low pressure
affecting the region by mid week. Continued breezy conditions will
continue though cooler temperatures are expected. A period of
increased shower activity looks possible, though timing and
location is somewhat uncertain at this point due to model
discrepancy.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms are again occurring in southwest Montana this
afternoon. High resolution model guidance have the highest chances
for storms to remain in southwest Montana into this evening. The
rest of the region will have cumulus building over the terrain. A
few of these may become showers but the chance becomes lower the
more north one is from KBTM and KSMN. General afternoon winds of
10-20 kts from 01/2200Z through 02/0300Z are still expected. A
shortwave trough will begin to move into northwest Montana tonight
so cloud cover will likely increase and lower through Saturday
morning.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$


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