Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000 FXUS66 KMTR 121147 AFDMTR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA 347 AM PST FRI FEB 12 2016 .SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH WARMING THEN EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LARGE LONG-PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY...CREATING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS AT AREA BEACHES...INCLUDING SNEAKER WAVES. && .DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:50 AM PST FRIDAY...A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER...AROUND 800 FEET PER THE FORT ORD PROFILER...HAS RESULTED IN SOME PATCHY LOCALLY DENSE FOG ALONG THE COAST AND LOCALLY INTO THE SALINAS VALLEY. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW 1/4 MILES IN FOG AT KSNS AND KWVI...1/2 MILE AT KMRY...AND LESS THAN 1/4 MILE AT HALF MOON BAY. VISIBILITIES ARE VARYING...BUT FOG IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST UNTIL MID MORNING OR SO. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE SWITCHED TO MORE ONSHORE...WITH SFO-SAC AT 0.8 MB ...SFO-LAS AT 1.0 MB...AND THE WMC-SFO (OFFSHORE) GRADIENT MUCH LOWER NOW AT 3.2 MB. BECAUSE OF THE ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE COAST...EXPECT COOLER HIGH TEMPS TODAY WITH 60S TO MID-UPPER 70S. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE WEST PROVIDING THE AREA WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. NO RAIN FOR OUR AREA IS ANTICIPATED WITH THIS TROUGH...BUT SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO REBUILD ALONG THE COAST BY SUNDAY FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BY MONDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL SHOW A SYSTEM APPROACHING THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST BY MIDWEEK BRINGING RAIN TO THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...AS OF 3:47 AM PST FRIDAY...FOR 12Z TAFS. SHALLOW FOG LAYER PERSISTS ALONG THE COAST WITH LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VSBYS AROUND MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS. INLAND TERMINALS STARTING TO SHOW 4-5 SM AND MIST/HAZE. NO BIG IMPACTS FORECAST FOR THE MAJOR BAY AREA TERMINALS. VICINITY OF KSFO...BEST INTEL SUGGESTS THE FOG BANK WILL STAY WEST OF THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. SOME MORNING FOG/HAZE POSSIBLE WITH TAF SHOWING 6 SM. SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...NUMEROUS 1/4 MILE FOG REPORTS OVERNIGHT FROM HALF MOON BAY TO MONTEREY AND SALINAS AS WELL AS WATSONVILLE. POCKETS OF DENSE FOG TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 17Z. THEN CLEARING WITH JUST SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. && .MARINE...AS OF 3:41 AM PST FRIDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER A BUILDING AND LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL. BY THIS EVENING NW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE WATERS AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...ALONG THE COAST TIL 8 PM SATURDAY SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS AVIATION: R_WALBRUN MARINE: R_WALBRUN VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA

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