Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000 FXUS66 KMTR 182129 AFDMTR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA 229 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND BRING AN END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL POSSIBLY IMPACT THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:45 PM PDT THURSDAY...ISOLATED TO AT TIMES SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION. WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE NORTH BAY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED AS THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING AND NO SIGNS OF ENHANCEMENTS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE REGION. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A DRIER AIR MASS ALOFT. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES. IN ADDITION...THE MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY RETURN AND BRING BACK OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING COASTAL CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO BE INDICATED BY THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS. THUS...HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY...THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO STAY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...THE TROUGH WOULD BE DEEP ENOUGH TO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED! && .AVIATION...AS OF 2:30 PM PDT THURSDAY...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY TOWARDS THE CENTRAL COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARM FRONT PORTION OF THIS STORM SYSTEM IS POSITIONED ALONG THE COAST AND IS MAINTAINING MID LEVEL CUMULUS TYPE CLOUDS OVER THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS HAS ENDED. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ENHANCING THE LOCAL DEW POINT BUT THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST BEGINNING LATER THIS EVENING AS THE STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH. VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE MODERATE. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE MODERATE. && .MARINE...AS OF 2:30 PM PDT THURSDAY...A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OFF OF THE MENDOCINO COAST WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE STORM SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTHEAST. A LARGE...LONG PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TNGT...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA

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