Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000 FXUS66 KMTR 291216 AFDMTR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA 516 AM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS...MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES INLAND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S AND 80S. NO BIG WEATHER CHANGES FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY A SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE COAST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTH BAY. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN AND COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONSHORE FLOW. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:10 AM PDT FRIDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED WELL INLAND ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING AND COVER MOST LOCATIONS. RIGHT NOW CONCORD IS ONE OF THE FEW AIRPORTS NOT REPORTING A CEILING WHILE LIVERMORE IS OVERCAST AT 700 FEET. STARTING TO GET SOME REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 2 SM AT WATSONVILLE AND MONTEREY. ITS CURRENTLY A DRIZZLE STORM DOWN ON THE MONTEREY PENINSULA WITH OUR TIPPING BUCKET HAVING JUST TIPPED AND THE ROADS WET. THIS IS ALL OCCURRING AS THE MARINE LAYER COMPRESSES SLIGHTLY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BRIEFLY BUILDS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD BY THIS AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST BY SATURDAY. GIVEN THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER DEPTH...CLOUDS INLAND WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ALONG THE BEACHES AGAIN ALL DAY TODAY WITH COASTAL READINGS STUCK IN THE 60S. SATURDAY WILL LIKELY START OUT CLOUDY MOST LOCATIONS AS THE MARINE LAYER SURGES INLAND ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM NICELY AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH COMFY READINGS IN THE 70S AND SOME LOWER 80S. THERE`S ACTUALLY A SYNOPTIC WEATHER FEATURE OF NOTE THAT WILL APPROACH THE COAST AS EARLY AS SATURDAY EVENING. AS THIS HAPPENS THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL DRIZZLE LIKELY AS THE LOW APPROACHES. MODEL TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING ANY SHOWER CHANCES WITH THE LOW WILL BE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY AND EVEN THOSE CHANCES ARE SLIGHT ON SUNDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FROM MENDOCINO NORTHWARD. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE FOR COOLER INLAND TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE INITIAL LOW WILL HEAD TOWARDS CRESCENT CITY BY SUNDAY NIGHT BUT THEN UPSTREAM ENERGY WILL PUSH IT INLAND ON MONDAY KEEPING PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE FOR THE BAY AREA. UPSHOT IS FOR NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START THINGS OUT NEXT WEEK WITH EXPECTATION FOR WIDESPREAD STRATUS COVERAGE. LATEST ECMWF KEEPS ZONAL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A DRY MIDWEEK TROUGH THAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL. AT THIS POINT NO SIGN OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WARM WEATHER TO START OUT JUNE. && .AVIATION...AS OF 5:15 AM PDT FRIDAY... WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS MARINE LAYER COMPRESSES UNDER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE DRIZZLE HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THE COMPRESSED LAYER ALONG THE COAST. RELATIVELY SHALLOW DEPTH IS LEADING SHORT TERM GUIDANCE TO PUSH TOWARDS EARLIER CLEARING THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL SLUGGISHLY CLIMB FROM IFR TO MVF THROUGH 18-20Z DEPENDING ON LOCATION BEFORE MIXING OUT LATER THIS MORNING. EARLY RETURN OF MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS EVENING. MODERATE OCCASIONALLY GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW AT COASTAL SITES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR CIGS WITH POSSIBILITY OF SOME DRIZZLE THROUGH 18-19Z. VFR THEREAFTER WITH MVFR CIGS RETURNING BY 01-02Z FRIDAY EVENING. WEST WINDS INCREASING TO 18G25 KTS BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO EXCEPT CLEARING SLIGHTLY EARLIER ON FRIDAY. MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WITH INTERMITTENT DZ THROUGH 19-20Z THU. LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS. MVFR CIGS RETURN AS EARLY AS 00Z FRI. && .MARINE...AS OF 05:03 AM PDT FRIDAY...LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TREKS DOWNSTREAM. LOCALLY STRONGER WIND SPEEDS WILL OCCUR OFF OF THE SONOMA COASTLINE...AND ALONG THE BIG SUR COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT NEXT WEEK. SEAS BUILD LATE IN THE WEEK && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 2 PM SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW AVIATION/MARINE: DRP VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA

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