Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000 FXUS66 KMTR 032330 AFDMTR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA 430 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS...OUTSIDE OF SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A STRONGER MARINE INFLUENCE WILL RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT FRIDAY...24 HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE IS FAR FROM CLEAR-CUT TODAY WITH A FEW SPOTS RUNNING MORE THAN 5 DEGREES AHEAD OF YESTERDAY WHILE SEVERAL OTHER ARE 5 DEGREES OR COOLER. THE REASON IS MOSTLY DUE TO THE DIFFERENCE IN CLOUD COVER COMPARED TO THURSDAY. OVERALL TEMPS ARE DISPLAYING THE MODERATED VERSION OF THE TYPICAL SUMMER GRADIENT THAT WE SEE AROUND HERE WITH 60S TO LOWER 70S AT THE COAST WHILE INLAND LOCATIONS ARE IN THE 70S AND 80S (INSTEAD OF 90S AND 100S INLAND DURING HOT SUMMER DAYS). KMUX DID INDICATE A FEW BANDS OF SHOWERS EARLIER INCLUDING ONE OFF THE COAST AND ANOTHER THROUGH NAPA COUNTY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME THE INLAND ONE HAS NOT PRODUCED ANY OFFICIAL TIPS OF THE BUCKET. WITH A MARINE LAYER AROUND 2000 FEET...PLENTY OF CLOUDS OFF THE COAST...PLUS MODERATE NW FLOW AT THE SURFACE...SHOULD SEE CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG RETURN TONIGHT FOR ALL COASTAL SPOTS PLUS ADJACENT VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST FROM THE FOURTH OF JULY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMS TO OUR WEST AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL HELP TO LOWER TEMPS A FEW ADDITIONAL DEGREES AND INCREASE THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH ANY SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BE BOTH TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. INLAND SPOTS WILL LIKELY SEE SEVERAL DAYS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WHILE COASTAL SPOTS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. WORTH NOTING THAT THE MONTEREY BAY BUOY HAS HIT 62 DEGREES TODAY WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARM SIDE ALONG THE COAST. LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES SIMILAR CONDITIONS AT LEAST THROUGH THE 17TH OF THE MONTH. && .AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 PM PDT FRIDAY... MARINE LAYER REMAINS RELATIVELY SHALLOW...CURRENTLY JUST OVER 1000 FEET DEEP AT FORT ORD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AROUND SF BAY UNTIL AT LEAST 04Z...POSSIBLY LATER. IFR CIGS LIKELY TO DEVELOP INLAND FROM MONTEREY BAY BY 02Z. MARINE LAYER EXPECTED TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP IFR/MVFR CIGS IN PLACE SOMEWHAT LATER ON SATURDAY MORNING COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS. VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS THEREAFTER UNTIL 17Z SATURDAY. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. WEST WINDS 19G24KT EARLY IN THE EVENING...DECREASING SLOWLY OVERNIGHT. SFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO KSFO. MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS... IFR CIGS AFTER 01-02Z... WITH LIFR CIGS AND POSSIBLE VSBYS REDUCTIONS BETWEEN 12-16Z SATURDAY. LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS. && .MARINE...AS OF 10:45 AM PDT FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO SEVERAL DAYS OF STEADY CONDITIONS COMPOSING OF GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND CALM SEAS. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TNGT...NONE. $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL AVIATION: DYKEMA MARINE: DRP VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA

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