Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000 FXUS66 KMTR 251731 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 1031 AM PDT WED MAY 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A building ridge of high pressure will lead to a gradual warming and drying trend for the remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend. .DISCUSSION...as of 9:30 am PDT Wednesday...The ongoing forecast for the short-term remains on track for today with mostly cloudy conditions impacting much of the region. Coastal drizzle has also be reported up and down the coast and even into the Oakland area this morning. Do expect this conditions to improve through the morning with a bit of clearing over inland areas by this afternoon. Given the lingering moisture aloft, do expect build up of clouds over this hills/mountain areas again this afternoon. However, coverage of showers will be generally confined to the northeast portions of the North Bay Mountains. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...as of 3:00 AM PDT Wednesday...Not much to talk about this morning as showers have come to an end across our as a weak upper level low continues to progress to the southeast of our region overnight. The low and associated longwave trof will advance to the east over the next several days as a ridge of high pressure builds back into our region. This will lead to a gradual warming trend with most spots near or even a bit warmer than normal by the upcoming weekend. Big question is how much of the warming will make it all of the way to the coast. Various guidance keeps spots at the coast mostly in the 60s to lower 70s. Only sticking point is a very slight chance for a shower this afternoon over the North Bay Mountains as daytime heating combined with some minor instability. Could also be a little coastal drizzle tonight. Longer range guidance favors warmer than normal readings as the ridge strengthens and expands. Right now next week which includes the Memorial Day Holiday looks warmer than normal with dry conditions. && .AVIATION...
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as of 10:31 AM PDT Tuesday...Widespread stratus with decent onshore feed. Only minor tweak to the 12z tafs. Do expect gradually clearing from 19-21z for most terminals. Better shot for more VFR conditions this afternoon unlike yesterday. Cigs return tonight with more stratus. Vicinity of KSFO...Feeling a little more optimistic today for better clearing...well at least going to more a SCT cig this afternoon. For now...will show improvement from 19-20z. The fly in the ointment to watch is the rapid clearing over the S Bay and its northward movement. SFO Bridge Approach...If the latest trend on satellite continues, clearing may occur a little sooner on the approach. Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR cigs through 19-20z this afternoon. Cigs return this evening with MVFR/IFR overnight. Onshore winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon.
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&& .CLIMATE...Fun climate facts -- downtown San Francisco has picked up nearly 23" since October 1st which is 99% of average. We are currently just 0.12" drier than normal. This is the most rainfall in San Francisco for the same period since 2010-2011. It is also nearly double the amount recorded October 1st, 2013, to May 25th, 2014. && .MARINE...as of 09:30 AM PDT Wednesday...Building high pressure will result in gusty northerly winds over the coastal waters today through the weekend. Winds will be strongest in the outer waters north of Point Reyes. Hazardous conditions from fresh squared seas will exist as northwest seas build to match the period today and tomorrow. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .Tday...SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm from 3 PM SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm from 3 PM SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm from 3 PM SCA...Mry Bay from 3 PM SCA...SF Bay from 12 PM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: RGass AVIATION: MM MARINE: MM CLIMATE: Bell Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook and twitter at: www.Facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea

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