Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000 FXUS66 KMTR 010543 AFDMTR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA 1043 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WITH LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE COAST AND IN LAND VALLEYS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN HAS RETURNED TO THE CENTRAL COAST WITH NIGHT/MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG STRETCHING INTO THE VALLEYS AND CLEARING SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:53 PM PDT THURSDAY...BENIGN WEATHER CONTINUES THIS EVENING AND THERE`S NOT TOO MUCH TO DISCUSS. MID-UPPER LEVEL DRYING HAS BEEN PROCEEDING ALONG AS THE FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN POINTING TO THE LAST DAY OR SO FOR THE BAY AREA AND NORTH CENTRAL COAST. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE ON THE EVENING OAK SOUNDING IS NOW DOWN TO 0.56" AND TRENDING LOWER. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PERSIST TRAPPED BENEATH THE MARINE INVERSION CURRENTLY BASED NEAR 1200 FEET DEEP PER AREA PROFILER DATA AND THE SAN CARLOS SODAR. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER CALIFORNIA WILL REMAIN NEARLY UNCHANGED IN STRENGTH THROUGH FRIDAY THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. NO FORECAST UPDATES ARE PLANNED THIS EVENING. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:00 PM PDT THURSDAY...SO FAR IT HAS BEEN A MILD DAY AROUND THE FORECAST AREA. SAN RAFAEL AND SFO ARE REPORTING CURRENT TEMPERATURES OF 70 DEGREES AND MONTEREY IS REPORTING A CURRENT TEMPERATURE OF 64 DEGREES. HOWEVER...IT IS WARMER INLAND WITH CONCORD REPORTING 81 AND LIVERMORE 89 DEGREES. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED ARE BEING REPORTED AROUND THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS LINGERING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST. ACCORDING TO THE FORT ORD PROFILER THE MARINE LAYER IS APPROXIMATELY 1200 FEET DEEP ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...EXPECT A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO THE COASTAL AND INLAND VALLEYS. THE 1200Z ECMWF AND GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BOTH MODELS MAINTAIN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE A THERMAL THROUGH POSITIONED ALONG THE COAST WILL PROMOTE WARM SEASONAL TEMPERATURES INLAND AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST. && .AVIATION...AS OF 10:43 PM PDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS CONTINUES TO ERODE THE STRATUS ALONG THE COAST. NONETHELESS PATCHY STRATUS REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST AND LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO BRING CIGS OVER AREA TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. HAVE REMOVED CIGS OUT OF KSTS OVERNIGHT... HOWEVER A SUNRISE SURPRISE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...LOW CONFIDENCE. VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH CIGS OVER KOAK RETURNING AFTER MIDNIGHT IF AT ALL. CLEARING CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR 17Z FRIDAY. WEST WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LIFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLEARING EXPECTED BETWEEN 18Z-19Z FRIDAY. WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. && .MARINE...AS OF 10:22 PM PDT THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF POINT REYES. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL GENERATE STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA/LARRY AVIATION/MARINE: CW VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA

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