Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS66 KMTR 241755
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
1055 AM PDT FRI JUN 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Marine layer and associated low clouds have returned
to the coast and bays this morning. Low clouds will quickly burn
off by mid-morning followed by another sunny and warm day. A
modest warming trend is forecast through the weekend with building
high pressure and some light northerly winds. High pressure stays
in place next week with continued dry and seasonably warm weather.
.DISCUSSION...as of 9:45 AM PDT Friday...Visible satellite
imagery shows coastal low clouds from southern Marin County south
through just off the Big Sur Coast, and into the Monterey Bay and
northern Salinas Valley. Low clouds are eroding from the north,
so expect plenty of sunshine today after clouds dissipate. Looking
for high temperatures today ranging from the 60s and 70s at the
coast, to the 80s and 90s inland. Expecting coastal low clouds to
reform tonight but the strong offshore gradient across the
southern portion of the state should push clouds out over the
water south of about Point Sur.
High pressure aloft will continue to influence the forecast area
through the forecast period with night and morning coastal stratus
keeping near-shore areas seasonally cool, and warm to hot temperatures
inland. There will be day-to-day fluctuations in the high
temperatures but only by a couple of degrees. Warmest inland
locations are expected to top out over 100 degrees some of the
days this week, with mid to upper 90s other days. 60s and 70s
expected near the ocean.
In the 7-10 day time frame the models are showing some increase
in monsoonal moisture over the Desert Southwest which is pretty
much right on track with climatology. The latest run of the GFS
generates some convective qpf as far north as Monterey county by
next weekend with more widespread activity over the Sierra. Good
to keep this in mind and monitor, even though it is way out in
the extended forecast range.
.AVIATION...As of 10:30 AM PDT Friday...Surface high is building
into the Pacific Northwest coast strengthening the n-s gradient.
Models indicate this trend continuing through Saturday. This will
reduce the stratus coverage for tonight with only patchy clouds in
the SFO Bay Area. There is a good chance SFO and the approach
will stay VFR. Stratus will still get into the MRY Bay Area.
Vicinity of KSFO...VFR. West winds gusting to 28 kt after 20z.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO. Patchy cigs near the Golden
Gate and OAK vicinity late tonight.
Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR cigs through 19Z returning after 06z.
.MARINE...as of 10:45 AM PDT Friday...Moderate to locally strong
gusty northwest winds will prevail along the california coast
today and into tomorrow. The strongest winds will be over the
outer waters at least 10nm from the coast. Steep, choppy seas are
expected to prevail across a majority of the coastal waters due to
these strong winds. A long period southerly swell will also move
through the waters over the next few days, resulting in breaking
waves at nearshore reefs and sand bars.
.Tday...SCA...Mry Bay from 12 PM
SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm from 12 PM
SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
PUBLIC FORECAST: Sims
AVIATION: W Pi
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