Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000 FXUS66 KMTR 270023 AFDMTR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA 423 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. && .DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PST THURSDAY...THANKS TO AN OFFSHORE FLOW PLUS WARMING IN THE COLUMN INDICATED OFF THE KOAK SOUNDING THIS MORNING...TEMPS ARE RUNNING 4 TO 9 DEGREES AHEAD OF YESTERDAY IN MOST SPOTS. IN FACT...SOME NORTH BAY LOCATIONS HAVE MOVED BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S AND COULD EVEN SET A RECORD OR TWO. SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER LAND WITH CLOUDS CONFINED TO THE NW WATERS. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE AS A GENERAL NW FLOW BRINGS CLOUDS TO THE NORTH DOWN TO OUR AREA. A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE BC COASTLINE WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD AND BE NEAR THE SF BAY AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTH BAY AND THEN SPREADING TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME WINDS WILL PICK UP WITH GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL RANGES. AS THE LOW NEARS...INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ALONG WITH MORE FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WITH THE MAIN FOCUS OF ATTENTION OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE LIGHT ESPECIALLY AROUND SF BAY WHERE MOST PLACES WILL PICK UP LESS THAN A TENTH. AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER ALONG COASTAL SANTA CRUZ AND MONTEREY COUNTY RANGES WHERE OVER HALF AN INCH CAN BE EXPECTED. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN...SOME OF THE CELLS WILL HAVE SMALL HAIL WHILE ELEVATIONS OVER 4000 FEET COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW. THUNDER AND LIGHTING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FOR MONTEREY...SANTA CRUZ...AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY LEADING TO AN END OF SHOWERS FOR ALMOST ALL SPOTS. COULD STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS POP UP OVER INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY LATE SUNDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH WILL THEN DIVE DOWN TO OUR AREA ON MONDAY WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS EXPECTED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS THIS WEAKER SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...AS OF 4:00 PM PST THURSDAY...FOR 00Z TAFS. A STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE STRONG GRADIENT WILL ALSO KEEP TERMINALS FREE OF LOW CLOUDS WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO STREAM IN FROM THE NORTH. MODELS ARE HINTING OF PATCHY LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WINDS WILL EASE A BIT OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KSFO WITH GUSTS TO 28 KT FORECAST. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS..VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. GUSTY NW WINDS DOWN THE SALINAS VALLEY. && .MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PST THURSDAY...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. SHOWER CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY BEFORE WINDS FINALLY SUBSIDE AS THE WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. LIGHTER WINDS RETURN SUNDAY BUT LARGE SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL AVIATION: CW MARINE: RWW VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA

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