Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000 FXUS66 KMTR 260351 AFDMTR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA 851 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TO RETURN BY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE FROM MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM IS FORECAST TO BRING RENEWED RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.
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&& .DISCUSSION...
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AS OF 8:50 PM PDT SATURDAY...ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...BUT RADAR SHOWS THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH LATEST MODEL DATA WHICH MOSTLY INDICATE AN END TO ALL PRECIP BY LATE THIS EVENING. A FORECAST UPDATE EARLIER THIS EVENING INCLUDED A REDUCTION IN LATE NIGHT POPS TO NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO ALL AREAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. SKIES ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. COOL NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL KEEP INLAND TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL. A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SYSTEM DUE IN NEAR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE RAIN COULD MOVE INTO OUR AREA AS SOON AS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH RAINFALL MOST LIKELY ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT (HALLOWEEN). THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE THIS SYSTEM COULD BE QUITE A BIT WETTER THAN TODAY`S SYSTEM. OF COURSE...THIS IS STILL NEARLY A WEEK OUT AND MUCH CAN CHANGE.
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&& .AVIATION...AS OF 5:57 PM PDT SATURDAY...LINGERING INSTABILITY IS CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS TO LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MOIST LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COULD CAUSE A FEW PATCHES OF VALLEY FOG EARLY SUN MORNING. VICINITY OF KSFO...SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL SEEN ON THE RADAR. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY NEARBY IS JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT. VFR. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS FORECAST TONIGHT. VFR. && .MARINE...AS OF 02:50 PM PDT SATURDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. IN ADDITION...A LARGE WESTERLY SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TNGT...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 9 PM SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 9 PM SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 PM SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 PM SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 9 PM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA AVIATION: CANEPA MARINE: RGASS VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA

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