Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000 FXUS66 KMTR 241755 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 1055 AM PDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Marine layer and associated low clouds have returned to the coast and bays this morning. Low clouds will quickly burn off by mid-morning followed by another sunny and warm day. A modest warming trend is forecast through the weekend with building high pressure and some light northerly winds. High pressure stays in place next week with continued dry and seasonably warm weather. && .DISCUSSION...as of 9:45 AM PDT Friday...Visible satellite imagery shows coastal low clouds from southern Marin County south through just off the Big Sur Coast, and into the Monterey Bay and northern Salinas Valley. Low clouds are eroding from the north, so expect plenty of sunshine today after clouds dissipate. Looking for high temperatures today ranging from the 60s and 70s at the coast, to the 80s and 90s inland. Expecting coastal low clouds to reform tonight but the strong offshore gradient across the southern portion of the state should push clouds out over the water south of about Point Sur. High pressure aloft will continue to influence the forecast area through the forecast period with night and morning coastal stratus keeping near-shore areas seasonally cool, and warm to hot temperatures inland. There will be day-to-day fluctuations in the high temperatures but only by a couple of degrees. Warmest inland locations are expected to top out over 100 degrees some of the days this week, with mid to upper 90s other days. 60s and 70s expected near the ocean. In the 7-10 day time frame the models are showing some increase in monsoonal moisture over the Desert Southwest which is pretty much right on track with climatology. The latest run of the GFS generates some convective qpf as far north as Monterey county by next weekend with more widespread activity over the Sierra. Good to keep this in mind and monitor, even though it is way out in the extended forecast range. && .AVIATION...As of 10:30 AM PDT Friday...Surface high is building into the Pacific Northwest coast strengthening the n-s gradient. Models indicate this trend continuing through Saturday. This will reduce the stratus coverage for tonight with only patchy clouds in the SFO Bay Area. There is a good chance SFO and the approach will stay VFR. Stratus will still get into the MRY Bay Area. Vicinity of KSFO...VFR. West winds gusting to 28 kt after 20z. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO. Patchy cigs near the Golden Gate and OAK vicinity late tonight. Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR cigs through 19Z returning after 06z. && .MARINE...as of 10:45 AM PDT Friday...Moderate to locally strong gusty northwest winds will prevail along the california coast today and into tomorrow. The strongest winds will be over the outer waters at least 10nm from the coast. Steep, choppy seas are expected to prevail across a majority of the coastal waters due to these strong winds. A long period southerly swell will also move through the waters over the next few days, resulting in breaking waves at nearshore reefs and sand bars. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .Tday...SCA...Mry Bay from 12 PM SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm from 12 PM SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: Sims AVIATION: W Pi MARINE: DRP Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook and twitter at: www.Facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea

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