Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS66 KMTR 251731
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
1031 AM PDT WED MAY 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A building ridge of high pressure will lead to a
gradual warming and drying trend for the remainder of the week and
into the upcoming weekend.
.DISCUSSION...as of 9:30 am PDT Wednesday...The ongoing forecast
for the short-term remains on track for today with mostly cloudy
conditions impacting much of the region. Coastal drizzle has also
be reported up and down the coast and even into the Oakland area
this morning. Do expect this conditions to improve through the
morning with a bit of clearing over inland areas by this
afternoon. Given the lingering moisture aloft, do expect build up
of clouds over this hills/mountain areas again this afternoon.
However, coverage of showers will be generally confined to the
northeast portions of the North Bay Mountains.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...as of 3:00 AM PDT Wednesday...Not much to
talk about this morning as showers have come to an end across our
as a weak upper level low continues to progress to the southeast
of our region overnight. The low and associated longwave trof will
advance to the east over the next several days as a ridge of high
pressure builds back into our region. This will lead to a gradual
warming trend with most spots near or even a bit warmer than
normal by the upcoming weekend. Big question is how much of the
warming will make it all of the way to the coast. Various guidance
keeps spots at the coast mostly in the 60s to lower 70s. Only
sticking point is a very slight chance for a shower this afternoon
over the North Bay Mountains as daytime heating combined with some
minor instability. Could also be a little coastal drizzle tonight.
Longer range guidance favors warmer than normal readings as the
ridge strengthens and expands. Right now next week which includes
the Memorial Day Holiday looks warmer than normal with dry
-- Changed Discussion --as of 10:31 AM PDT Tuesday...Widespread stratus with
decent onshore feed. Only minor tweak to the 12z tafs. Do expect
gradually clearing from 19-21z for most terminals. Better shot for
more VFR conditions this afternoon unlike yesterday. Cigs return
tonight with more stratus.
Vicinity of KSFO...Feeling a little more optimistic today for
better clearing...well at least going to more a SCT cig this
afternoon. For now...will show improvement from 19-20z. The fly
in the ointment to watch is the rapid clearing over the S Bay and
its northward movement.
SFO Bridge Approach...If the latest trend on satellite continues,
clearing may occur a little sooner on the approach.
Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR cigs through 19-20z this afternoon.
Cigs return this evening with MVFR/IFR overnight. Onshore winds
10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon.
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.CLIMATE...Fun climate facts -- downtown San Francisco has picked
up nearly 23" since October 1st which is 99% of average. We are
currently just 0.12" drier than normal. This is the most rainfall
in San Francisco for the same period since 2010-2011. It is also
nearly double the amount recorded October 1st, 2013, to May 25th,
.MARINE...as of 09:30 AM PDT Wednesday...Building high pressure
will result in gusty northerly winds over the coastal waters today
through the weekend. Winds will be strongest in the outer waters
north of Point Reyes. Hazardous conditions from fresh squared
seas will exist as northwest seas build to match the period today
.Tday...SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm from 3 PM
SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm from 3 PM
SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm from 3 PM
SCA...Mry Bay from 3 PM
SCA...SF Bay from 12 PM
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGass
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