Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 290555 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 155 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TRACKS EAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... SNOW INTENSITY SLOWLY WEAKENING AS UPPER LOW AND TROUGH AXIS BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE COAST. PERSISTENT NARROW BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY...ONE ACROSS THE OFFICE. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. A GUSTY NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS WELL WITH LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...AND BUILDING SLOWLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS WELL INLAND...TO THE MID 20S AT THE COAST. THIS IS WELL BELOW NORMAL BY ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUNNY SKIES WITH ANOTHER DAY WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. PREFERRED TO STAY JUST ABOVE MOS. A RETURN FLOW SETS UP BY EVENING AND STRENGTHENS SUN NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AT NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SEND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. SOME SURFACE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN AS THE WARM FRONT NEARS AND PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS EARLY MONDAY. INLAND...NORTHWEST...LIKELY STARTS AS SOME LIGHT SNOW...WHILE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...WILL BE AT THE START. AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN THE PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO ALL LIQUID. LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE WARMER...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL AND RISING TOWARD DAYBREAK. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL PASS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF NYC AND LONG ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WINTRY MIX OVERNIGHT ON TUESDAY. HIGHS AND LOWS WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW AND WARM MOIST AIR QUICKLY SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY. GENERALLY VFR NYC METRO AND WEST...WITH MVFR OR IFR EAST OF NYC IN SNOW. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...SNOW COVERAGE SHOULD SHRINK...WITH EASTERN TERMINALS LOSING THE SNOW LAST. SKIES CLEAR THIS MORNING...WITH FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED SUNDAY. GUSTY NW WINDS...MAINLY TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC...CONTINUE MOST OF THE NIGHT. SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 TO AS HIGH AS 25 KTS. GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT SUNDAY MORNING...AND NW WINDS EVENTUALLY SHIFT BRIEFLY TO THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. .MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. .MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. .TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -RA. .WEDNESDAY...VFR. .THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -RA. && .MARINE... MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN ON THE BACKSIDE OF LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE ON SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...BUT BUILD TO ABOVE SCA CRITERIA ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS WINDS AND WAVES DIMINISH AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. && .HYDROLOGY... LITTLE ADDITIONAL QPF EXPECTED...EXCEPT ANOTHER TENTH ACROSS EASTERN LI AND SE CT. PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB SITE. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NYZ079-081. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350- 353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FIG/DW NEAR TERM...MET/PW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...FIG/MET AVIATION...BC/PW MARINE...FIG/DW HYDROLOGY...FIG/DW

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