Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 231133 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 733 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE TRI-STATE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THURSDAY...THEN SLIDES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. 700-500 HPA TROUGH AXIS PUSHES TO THE SOUTH TODAY - SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT FORCING TO PRODUCE MAINLY ISOLD SHRA ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. APPEARS FAR EASTERN AREAS COULD REMAIN DRY WITH BEST FORCING PASSING NEAR/JUST W OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WIT NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL - MAINLY IN THE MID- UPPER 70S. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF THE METEOROLOGICAL ENHANCEMENT OF RIP CURRENT FORMATION AT ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... IT SHOULD BE DRY TONIGHT WITH NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AXIS PRESSING TO OUR SOUTH. USED A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH MAV AND MET GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. APPEARS THAT SHOULD HAVE A VERY WEAK AND DISJOINTED 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE PASS THROUGH SUNDAY. FOR NOW GOING WITH A DRY FORECAST - BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF ULTIMATELY ENDED UP WITH SOME SPRINKLES AND MAYBE A SHRA OR TWO - ESPECIALLY OVER FAR WESTERN/NORTHERN ZONES. FOR HIGHS SUNDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WIT NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THINGS DRY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL IN NYC AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE. FOR HIGHS MONDAY CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WIT NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR HIGHS. VALUES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE REMAINS EXTENDED OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. IT SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THEN AS A RESULT. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS FROM LATE WEDNESDAY ON...WITH NO CLEAR SIGNAL FAVORING ONE SOLUTION OVER ANOTHER. AS A RESULT WENT WITH A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...CAPPING POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. IT DOES APPEAR THAT ON SOME POINT EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL AT LEAST MOVE INTO THE AREA. FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY-FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY THEN RETURN TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE COLD FRONT PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH. HIGHS WEDNESDAY COULD APPROACH...AND POSSIBLY REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK OVER URBAN PORTIONS OF NE NJ AND NORMALLY WARMER AREAS IN NYC. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR. COULD BE BRIEF CIGS OF 2000-3000FT UNTIL 14Z...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN A TEMPO GROUP. ISO -SHRA NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. NE FLOW THIS MORNING BCMG E-ESE THIS AFTN. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUN THROUGH WED... .SUN-WED...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. SEAS PROBABLY REMAIN JUST UNDER 5 FT TODAY ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS A NE FLOW PREVAILS DURING THE MORNING. WIND DIRECTION THEN BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR BUILDING WAVES THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY SHIFT MORE INTO AN E TO ESE FLOW...HOWEVER EXPECTING THE WIND SPEEDS TO DROP WITH THIS SHIFT. WILL THEREFORE HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A SCA AT THIS TIME. SIMILAR WIND DIRECTIONS EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW...BUT WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE. SWELLS COULD START TO BUILD DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .HYDROLOGY... MAINLY DRY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN DRY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MALOIT NEAR TERM...MALOIT SHORT TERM...MALOIT LONG TERM...MALOIT AVIATION...JC MARINE...JC HYDROLOGY...MALOIT

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