Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 022129 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 529 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THEN BUILDS EAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG...BUT A WEAKLY SHEARED/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. A COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN PA LATE THIS AFT WILL ADVANCE QUICKLY EAST AND REACH THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY BY AROUND 8 PM...NYC METRO 10 PM TO MIDNIGHT...AND EASTERN LI/SE CT 2 TO 5 AM. THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN BOTH THE DEEP AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...HOWERVER...AIRMASS WILL STABILIZE SOMEWHAT DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. IN ADDITION...DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RRQ OF THE UPPER JET PASS PRIMARILY NW OF THE AREA...PERHAPS CLIPPING NW PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THUS...PRIMARILY FORECASTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE CONVECTION...BUT A STORM MOTION AROUND 30 KT SHOULD LIMIT ANY FLOODING TO THE MINOR NUISANCE VARIETY. AN ISOLATED SEVERE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...BUT THIS WOULD PRIMARILY BE NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UP UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE SUBURBS...TO AROUND 70 NYC METRO. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT FORMATION AT ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... WARM...BUT MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE FEATURED ON WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. NW WINDS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS FALLING OFF INTO THE 50S. LOWS WED NIGHT WILL RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT FORMATION AT ATLANTIC BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO RESIDUAL ONSHORE SWELLS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY WILL TRANSITION TO SOME WEAK RIDGING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO SLOW THE FORWARD MOVEMENT OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S. SOME LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY . MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT PASSES THROUGH...LEADING TO DIFFERENCES IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME THOUGH...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY...ENDING SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...IN THE 70S...WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL BE WELL IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A COLD FRONT APPROACHES PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ISO/SCT TSTMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME. MOST LIKELY THOUGH IN THE TIME WINDOW OF 02-04Z NEAR THE CITY TERMINALS AND KSWF WHERE THERE IS A ONE HOUR TEMPO FOR -TSRA WITH EXPECTING SOME LOSS OF INTENSITY WHEN THEY ARRIVE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH A S-SW FLOW AROUND 10 KT WITH SOME GUSTS 15-20 KT INTO EARLY EVE BECOMES MORE W-NW LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH THE SAME SUSTAINED SPEEDS. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING. TIMING OF -TSRA COULD DIFFER +/- 1 HOUR FROM TAF. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS COULD BE MORE OCCASIONAL INTO EARLY EVENING. TIMING OF -TSRA COULD DIFFER +/- 1 HOUR FROM TAF. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS COULD BE MORE OCCASIONAL INTO EARLY EVENING. TIMING OF -TSRA COULD DIFFER +/- 1 HOUR FROM TAF. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING. TIMING OF -TSRA COULD DIFFER +/- 1 HOUR FROM TAF. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING. FUTURE AMENDMENTS COULD INCLUDE A ONE HOUR TEMPO FOR -TSRA DEPENDING ON HOW THEY EVOLVE OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING. FUTURE AMENDMENTS COULD INCLUDE A ONE HOUR TEMPO FOR -TSRA DEPENDING ON HOW THEY EVOLVE OVER NEXT 4-5 HOURS. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WED THROUGH FRI... .WED-FRI NIGHT...VFR. .SAT-SUN...SUB-VFR PSBL IN SCT SHRA/TSRA. && .MARINE... SLY WINDS JUST AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO WED WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS. UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE BY ABOUT A FOOT ON THE OCEAN TONIGHT...KEEPING SEAS AT 2 TO 4 FT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. A FRONT APPROACHES LATE FRIDAY MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JP/DW NEAR TERM...DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...JC/JM MARINE...JP/DW HYDROLOGY...JP/DW

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