Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 261434 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1034 AM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure moves off the coast late today through tonight. A weak cold front will slowly approach on Thursday, and move through Thursday night. Low pressure will then pass to the south on Friday. Another low will pass to the south on Saturday while high pressure builds from the north. The high will continue to build in through early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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1030 AM Update - Forecast on track; no changes at this time. Sunny, with some afternoon CU developing, more so from NYC metro north/west. As high pressure moves off the coast this afternoon, NE winds should turn SE, perhaps even S right at the immediate coast with a superimposed sea breeze circulation. High temps should reach at least the upper 70s and lower 80s per MOS blend if not a little warmer.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
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1030 AM Update - Forecast on track; no changes at this time. A frontal system will slowly approach from the NW. Sided more with the slower 00Z GFS vs NAM, with precip holding off until daytime Thu, first only slight chance PoP inland in the morning as low level ridging holds on closer to the coast, then chance PoP expanding southward with the front, and eastward from PA/NJ with any convection developing via a lee trough to the west. Instability does not appear to be very great, with MLCAPE only up to 500 J/kg and a cap persisting closer to the coast through much of the day, but there may be enough deep layer shear to help sustain a few strong storms. Think the overall severe risk is marginal attm, and have played it down a little for the time being. After lows tonight from the mid/upper 50s east to 60s elsewhere, highs on Thu should range from the upper 70s to mid 80s.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A warm front will lift north Thursday night ushering warm humid air across the area. Widespread showers/t-storms are expected Thursday night. Both high and low temperatures will be closer to normal. Considerable model differences and low confidence in exact track and timing of a low pressure system moving across the Ohio valley on Friday. At this time, looks like chance for showers and thunderstorms will occur on Friday, but this system will need to be monitored for the potential for heavy rainfall. Highs on Friday will be in the mid/upper 70s with lows Friday night in the mid/upper 60s. For the weekend into early next week, any lingering chance of precipitation Saturday morning will quickly diminish as high pressure builds southward, bringing lower humidity and more seasonable temperature values. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure builds over the area this morning before sliding offshore this evening. A cold front will slowly approach during the day on Thursday VFR through the TAF period. Light NE winds in the city and light and variable winds elsewhere will begin to shift to the SE-SSE by mid to late morning. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .Thursday-Thursday night...MVFR possible, with a chance of showers and possibly a tstm. S-SW winds G15-20kt possible. .Friday-Saturday morning...MVFR or lower possible, with showers and possibly a tstm. NE winds G15-25kt possible. .Saturday afternoon-Sunday...VFR. && .MARINE...
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1030 AM Update - Forecast on track; no changes at this time. Quiet through Friday. Winds and seas should then gradually build to advy levels Friday night and into Saturday night as a series of low pressure centers pass to the south, with strengthening N-NE flow. Seas should gradually subside Sunday and into next week as high pressure builds in.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... Heavy rainfall is possible Thursday night into Friday, with a low chance for urban and poor drainage flooding. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fig/Goodman NEAR TERM...Goodman/Tongue SHORT TERM...Goodman LONG TERM...Fig AVIATION...DW MARINE...Fig/Goodman/Tongue HYDROLOGY...Fig

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