Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 271121 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 721 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weakening cold front over the Lower Great Lakes this morning dissipates to the west of the area later today. Another cold front approaches from the west on Tuesday and moves across the area Tuesday night into early Wednesday. The front moves farther offshore Wednesday night. Weak high pressure returns Thursday through Friday. Another cold front approaches late Friday moving across Saturday and moving southeast of the region by next Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Minor adjustments were made to forecast based on latest conditions. High pressure over the region this morning gives way to a dissipating cold front approaching from the west. The latter of which may produce a few showers late this afternoon to the north and west of NYC. Chances are low though with warm heights aloft resulting in weak instability. For the most part, expect mostly sunny skies into early this afternoon with increasing mid and high level clouds to follow from upstream convection. Highs will range from the mid 70s at the coast to near 85 across the interior. This looks to be a couple of degrees shy of normal. It will also begin to become more humid as dew points rise through the lower 60s this afternoon with south winds as highs as 15 to 20 mph at the coast. There is a borderline low to moderate risk for the development of rip currents at Atlantic ocean beaches today. If incoming swell energy falls to around 1 ft as depicted by guidance, rip development risk would be low, but there is some uncertainty on how quickly that will occur. With that said, 15-20 kt afternoon coastal jet development should have rip risk increasing to moderate across NYC and Western LI beaches in the late afternoon/evening with increased wind waves.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Mid level short wave trough passes through tonight with a few showers possible. Next feature of interest will be a cold front dropping SE across the Great Lakes tonight, approaching the NW zones late tomorrow afternoon. Gradual height falls aloft and increasing low-level moisture will allow for moderate instability tomorrow afternoon, mainly across the interior. An onshore flow near the coast will help to stabilize the airmass. The best chance for isolated strong convection will be across the interior later in the afternoon with CAPES over 1000 J/KG. Wind shear remains weak, so not expecting any organization. Conditions will be warm and muggy with dew points rising into the upper 60s with with similar lows tonight. Highs on Tuesday may be a degree or two cooler due to more cloud cover and continued onshore flow. Coastal sections may have to contend with stratus late tonight into Tuesday as the warm, moist air overruns the cooler nearshore waters. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Upper level trough makes slow progress east across New England Tuesday night through Wednesday. Associated PVA noted in most model solutions traversing across the area through early Wednesday before moving east. This energy departs to the northeast as closed upper low moves across Ontario Province late in the week, with a general trough extending across the Great Lakes region toward the east. The closed low moves east across Quebec Province, with lowering heights and weak PVA moving across the northeast United States next weekend. At the surface, a slow moving cold front approaches Tuesday evening, with a wave of low pressure along the front to the west. The front makes slow progress across the area Tuesday night, with another frontal boundary lagging behind Wednesday before moving through late. High pressure builds Thursday and Friday with another cold front moving toward or through the area Saturday. Not too confident in how far front moves for the latter portion of the weekend. As for sensible weather, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday night due to leftover moderate instability, convergence along the front, upper level jet and PVA aiding development. This chance continues overnight into Wednesday due to continuation of upper support and cold front in the vicinity. Would expect possible shower or thunderstorm development at any time Tuesday night and Wednesday, mainly scattered in nature. Dry weather expected Thursday and Friday with unsettled weather returning next weekend. Temperatures will average near normal, lower to middle 80s during the day and 60s at night for the most part. Followed model blend. && .AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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High pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast continues to drift into the open Atlantic waters as a cold front approaches from the west. VFR forecast through at least 06Z Tuesday. MVFR conditions should hold off until after 06Z Tuesday as CIGs lower to around 2500 feet. Showers possible towards daybreak Tuesday and through Tuesday morning with MVFR conditions. SW winds 5-10 KT will become S 10-15 KT later this morning. Sea breezes will develop this afternoon, turning winds S. Coastal jet will develop at KJFK, and winds will increase to 15-20 KT with 20-25 KT gusts there. For most other terminals, S winds will range from 10- 15 KT with gusts up to 20 KT. S winds become SW after 00Z Tuesday, and diminish to 5-10 KT. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: KJFK TAF Comments: Sea breeze likely after 15Z, and then winds increase to 15-20 KT with gusts up to 25 KT after 18Z. Timing of wind speed increases could be off by +/- 1-2 hours. Moderate confidence in forecast. KLGA TAF Comments: Sea breeze likely after 19Z. Timing could be off by +/- 1-2 hours. Moderate confidence in forecast. KEWR TAF Comments: S winds increase to 10-15 KT with gusts up to 20 KT after 17Z, but timing could be off by an hour or so. Moderate confidence in forecast. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: Moderate confidence in forecast. No unscheduled AMDs expected. KHPN TAF Comments: Moderate confidence in forecast. No unscheduled AMDs expected. KISP TAF Comments: Moderate confidence in forecast. Sea breeze likely after 15Z, with speeds increasing to around 15 KT with gusts up to 20 KT after 18Z. Timing could be off by an hour or so. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .Tuesday morning...MVFR or lower conditions possible, with showers mainly from NYC metro north/west, and low clouds/patchy fog along the coast especially KGON/KISP. .Tuesday afternoon and night...MVFR or IFR conditions likely in showers and tstms. Stratus and fog possible at night, with IFR or lower conditions likely at coastal terminals. .Wednesday morning...IFR or lower conditions still possible via morning fog/low clouds and any stray showers. .Wednesday afternoon through Thursday...VFR. .Friday...MVFR or lower conditions with showers/tstms possible in the late afternoon from NYC metro north/west, and throughout at night.
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&& .MARINE... As high pressure drifts east today, southerly winds will increase this afternoon with occasional gusts to near small craft levels, mainly west of Fire Island Inlet to near the mouth of New York Harbor. Similar conditions are forecast on Tuesday. Otherwise, winds and seas will remain below small craft levels on all the waters. A slow moving cold front passes across the waters Tuesday night through Wednesday as high pressure builds for the late week period. Overall, the pressure gradient remains rather weak during this time period. As such, expect seas and winds to remain below small craft advisory thresholds. && .HYDROLOGY... Widespread significant rainfall is not anticipated through the period. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms may produce locally heavy downpours Tuesday night through Wednesday. This could result in minor nuisance flooding. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DW/PW NEAR TERM...DW/PW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...MPS MARINE...DW/PW HYDROLOGY...DW/PW is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.