Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 211149 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 749 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE DELMARVA AREA TODAY...AND THEN WILL MEANDER SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. THAT LOW TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... DEEP UPPER TROUGH WITH SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AREA. MEANWHILE...SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE DELMARVA AREA AND SLOWLY TRACKS TOWARDS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATE IN THE DAY. CAN EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...BUT NOT MUCH PRECIP IS EXPECTED. A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS SUCH...WOULD EXPECT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR 2. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER WESTERN ZONES AND AREAS CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MILD...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. TEMPS COULD BE A BIT WARMER IF PARTS OF THE CWA BECOME DRY SLOTTED AND SKIES BREAK UP AND THE SUB POPS OUT FOR A BRIEF TIME. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT RAIN BECOMES LIKELY OVER WESTERN ZONES AS THE LOW DEEPENS. RAIN THEN CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE DELMARVA...AND BECOMES A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW. WILL BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL ON WEDNESDAY AS THAT LOW MEANDERS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. MUCH COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... STACKED LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD LATE THIS WEEK. SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA DIVES SOUTHEAST AND MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS SHORTWAVE. UPSTREAM PACIFIC NW SHORTWAVE WILL KICK OUT EASTERN TROUGH...RESULTING IN RIDGING BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...SOME MODEL PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES NOTED WITH REGARD TO THE SFC LOW PRESSURE. GENERALLY EXPECT SFC LOW JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WED NIGHT TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE RAIN WED NIGHT...WITH LOW CATEGORICAL POPS OR LIKELY POPS INTO THURSDAY AS THE STACKED LOW IS SLOW TO MOVE OUT. BANDED PRECIP LIKELY...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL MEASURABLE QPF MOST LOCATIONS. SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS NOTED CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...OR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY PER NAM/GFS. WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY IS PROGGED BY THESE MODELS AS WELL. CANNOT RULE THUNDER...BUT THIS SHOULD BE TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION. DRY WEATHER EVENTUALLY RETURNS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM DEPARTS. DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN. THEREAFTER...TEMPS LIKELY REBOUND CLOSER TO...IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY COULD BE THE COOLEST DAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHILE TEMPS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO WARM ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK IN SW FLOW. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL TRACK TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT. TRICKY FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT TODAY LEADING TO LIGHT AND VRB WINDS. TRIED TO PINPOINT A DIRECTION...BUT THEY COULD BE ALL OVER THE PLACE UNTIL THE LOW TRACKS TO THE S OF THE AREA AND A NE FLOW BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KT DEVELOPS THIS EVE. ONCE THIS OCCURS HAVE MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. CONDS SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z...BUT COULD SEE BRIEF ISOLD MVFR IN ANY SHOWER THAT MOVES DIRECTLY OVER ANY OF THE TERMINALS. SPEAKING OF SHOWERS...HIT OR MISS WILL BE THE RULE TODAY SO TOUGH TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE. MIGHT BE TOO EARLY IN STEADY PCPN BEGINNING AROUND 23Z TONIGHT...BUT FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS CAN BE MADE IN SUBSEQUENT TAFS. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLD TSTM IN ANY SHOWER LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH MID EVE. MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH SCT SHOWERS. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS LEADING TO WET RUNWAYS. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS LEADING TO WET RUNWAYS. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS LEADING TO WET RUNWAYS. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS LEADING TO WET RUNWAYS. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS LEADING TO WET RUNWAYS. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS LEADING TO WET RUNWAYS. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .WED THROUGH THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN RAIN. NLY FLOW 10 TO 15 KT G20-25KT. .FRI...IMPROVING CONDS. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS. .SAT..VFR. NW G20KT. && .MARINE... PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHED SEAS UP TO 5-6 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS EARLIER. SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE THOUGH...RUNNING CLOSE TO 4 TO 5 FT. WILL MAINTAIN THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THIS MORNING. WINDS LIGHTEN AND SHIFT TO THE SE LATE THIS MORNING...AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 3-4 FT THEN. OTHERWISE...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDS INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE WATERS. GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON WEDNESDAY...AND SCA CONDS LIKELY BY AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING SCA DUE TO SCA THAT IS UP FOR THIS MORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WED NIGHT WILL TURN TOWARD THE N/NW THURSDAY AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MAKES SLOW PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD. GUSTY NW WINDS PERSIST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BACK TO THE WEST LATE SAT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO SATURDAY. WESTERLY FETCH THOUGH LIKELY RESULTS IN HIGHER SEAS FURTHER EAST. && .HYDROLOGY... A FEW SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...WILL RESULT IN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF OR SO THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN INCREASES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH QPF LIKELY. LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. PERIODS OF RAIN...BRIEFLY HEAVY IN SPOTS...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. STORM TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER ANALYSIS OF OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND SREF MEMBERS. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY SERIOUS LIFE THREATENING OR PROPERTY FLOODING ISSUES/CONCERNS. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW NEAR TERM...MPS/PW SHORT TERM...MPS LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...24 MARINE...MPS/PW HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW

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