Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KOKX 271121
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
721 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016
A weakening cold front over the Lower Great Lakes this morning
dissipates to the west of the area later today. Another cold
front approaches from the west on Tuesday and moves across the
area Tuesday night into early Wednesday. The front moves farther
offshore Wednesday night. Weak high pressure returns Thursday
through Friday. Another cold front approaches late Friday moving
across Saturday and moving southeast of the region by next Sunday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Minor adjustments were made to forecast based on latest conditions.
High pressure over the region this morning gives way to a
dissipating cold front approaching from the west. The latter of
which may produce a few showers late this afternoon to the north
and west of NYC. Chances are low though with warm heights aloft
resulting in weak instability. For the most part, expect mostly
sunny skies into early this afternoon with increasing mid and high
level clouds to follow from upstream convection.
Highs will range from the mid 70s at the coast to near 85 across
the interior. This looks to be a couple of degrees shy of normal.
It will also begin to become more humid as dew points rise through
the lower 60s this afternoon with south winds as highs as 15 to 20
mph at the coast.
There is a borderline low to moderate risk for the development of
rip currents at Atlantic ocean beaches today. If incoming swell
energy falls to around 1 ft as depicted by guidance, rip
development risk would be low, but there is some uncertainty on
how quickly that will occur. With that said, 15-20 kt afternoon
coastal jet development should have rip risk increasing to
moderate across NYC and Western LI beaches in the late
afternoon/evening with increased wind waves.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Mid level short wave trough passes through tonight with a few
showers possible. Next feature of interest will be a cold front
dropping SE across the Great Lakes tonight, approaching the NW
zones late tomorrow afternoon. Gradual height falls aloft and
increasing low-level moisture will allow for moderate instability
tomorrow afternoon, mainly across the interior. An onshore flow
near the coast will help to stabilize the airmass. The best chance
for isolated strong convection will be across the interior later
in the afternoon with CAPES over 1000 J/KG. Wind shear remains
weak, so not expecting any organization.
Conditions will be warm and muggy with dew points rising into the
upper 60s with with similar lows tonight. Highs on Tuesday may be
a degree or two cooler due to more cloud cover and continued
onshore flow. Coastal sections may have to contend with stratus
late tonight into Tuesday as the warm, moist air overruns the
cooler nearshore waters.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level trough makes slow progress east across New England
Tuesday night through Wednesday. Associated PVA noted in most model
solutions traversing across the area through early Wednesday before
This energy departs to the northeast as closed upper low moves
across Ontario Province late in the week, with a general trough
extending across the Great Lakes region toward the east. The closed
low moves east across Quebec Province, with lowering heights and
weak PVA moving across the northeast United States next weekend.
At the surface, a slow moving cold front approaches Tuesday evening,
with a wave of low pressure along the front to the west. The front
makes slow progress across the area Tuesday night, with another
frontal boundary lagging behind Wednesday before moving through
late. High pressure builds Thursday and Friday with another cold
front moving toward or through the area Saturday. Not too confident
in how far front moves for the latter portion of the weekend.
As for sensible weather, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected Tuesday night due to leftover moderate
instability, convergence along the front, upper level jet and PVA
aiding development. This chance continues overnight into Wednesday
due to continuation of upper support and cold front in the vicinity.
Would expect possible shower or thunderstorm development at any time
Tuesday night and Wednesday, mainly scattered in nature.
Dry weather expected Thursday and Friday with unsettled weather
returning next weekend.
Temperatures will average near normal, lower to middle 80s during
the day and 60s at night for the most part. Followed model blend.
.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast continues to drift into
the open Atlantic waters as a cold front approaches from the west.
VFR forecast through at least 06Z Tuesday.
MVFR conditions should hold off until after 06Z Tuesday as CIGs
lower to around 2500 feet. Showers possible towards daybreak
Tuesday and through Tuesday morning with MVFR conditions.
SW winds 5-10 KT will become S 10-15 KT later this morning. Sea
breezes will develop this afternoon, turning winds S. Coastal jet
will develop at KJFK, and winds will increase to 15-20 KT with 20-25
KT gusts there. For most other terminals, S winds will range from 10-
15 KT with gusts up to 20 KT.
S winds become SW after 00Z Tuesday, and diminish to 5-10 KT.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: Sea breeze likely after 15Z, and then winds
increase to 15-20 KT with gusts up to 25 KT after 18Z. Timing of
wind speed increases could be off by +/- 1-2 hours. Moderate
confidence in forecast.
KLGA TAF Comments: Sea breeze likely after 19Z. Timing could be off
by +/- 1-2 hours. Moderate confidence in forecast.
KEWR TAF Comments: S winds increase to 10-15 KT with gusts up to 20
KT after 17Z, but timing could be off by an hour or so. Moderate
confidence in forecast.
The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.
KTEB TAF Comments: Moderate confidence in forecast. No unscheduled
KHPN TAF Comments: Moderate confidence in forecast. No unscheduled
KISP TAF Comments: Moderate confidence in forecast. Sea breeze
likely after 15Z, with speeds increasing to around 15 KT with gusts
up to 20 KT after 18Z. Timing could be off by an hour or so.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.Tuesday morning...MVFR or lower conditions possible, with
showers mainly from NYC metro north/west, and low clouds/patchy
fog along the coast especially KGON/KISP.
.Tuesday afternoon and night...MVFR or IFR conditions likely in
showers and tstms. Stratus and fog possible at night, with IFR or
lower conditions likely at coastal terminals.
.Wednesday morning...IFR or lower conditions still possible via
morning fog/low clouds and any stray showers.
.Wednesday afternoon through Thursday...VFR.
.Friday...MVFR or lower conditions with showers/tstms possible in
the late afternoon from NYC metro north/west, and throughout at
-- End Changed Discussion --
As high pressure drifts east today, southerly winds will increase
this afternoon with occasional gusts to near small craft levels,
mainly west of Fire Island Inlet to near the mouth of New York
Harbor. Similar conditions are forecast on Tuesday. Otherwise,
winds and seas will remain below small craft levels on all the
A slow moving cold front passes across the waters Tuesday
night through Wednesday as high pressure builds for the late
week period. Overall, the pressure gradient remains rather weak
during this time period. As such, expect seas and winds to
remain below small craft advisory thresholds.
Widespread significant rainfall is not anticipated through
the period. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms may
produce locally heavy downpours Tuesday night through Wednesday.
This could result in minor nuisance flooding.