Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 290007 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 707 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...AND PASS TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY...THEN YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... STRATO-CU STREAMER WITH SCT FLURRIES...ORIGINATING FROM THE LAKES AND GETTING ENHANCED OVER THE LITCHFIELD HILLS...DRIFTING SE ACROSS SOUTHERN CT TOWARD THE FORKS OF LONG ISLAND EARLY THIS EVEN...SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH 8-9 PM WITH WANING MIXING. THEN TEMPS SHOULD DROP UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS...AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING SOMEWHAT FROM NYC WEST...SO SIDED WITH WARMER MET GUIDANCE THERE FOR LOWS...AND WITH A MAV/MET BLEND ELSEWHERE. COLDEST TEMPS SHOULD BE ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT WITH 10-15. NYC METRO AND MOST OF LONG ISLAND SHOULD SEE LOWER 20S...WITH OTHER SPOTS 15-20. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... INCREASING WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...ALSO A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON FLURRIES AND/OR SPRINKLES ESPECIALLY NW OF NYC. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...MAINLY 35-40. AS THE WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NE SAT NIGHT AT LEAST ALOFT...CHANCES FOR FLURRIES/SPRINKLES WILL SHIFT OVER TO SOUTHERN CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD HOWEVER CONTINUE TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY NORTH/WEST OF NYC...WHERE WEAK TRANSIENT SHORTWAVES MAY BE ENOUGH TO HELP PRODUCE SOME PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTH/WEST OF NYC. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH MONDAY...WITH ZONAL UPPER FLOW BEING INTERRUPTED BY A COUPLE OF PIECES OF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUN AND THEN SWINGING THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A RESULTANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE A TRACK JUST TO THE NORTH OF THAT...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH SUN AND THEN ITS COLD FRONT APPROACHING SUN NIGHT AND THEN CROSSING MONDAY. FORCING IS WEAK ON SUNDAY...BUT SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW/MID LEVEL WAA AND SATURATION...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY SUN THROUGH SUN NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF TRI-STATE. SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH CAA ON GUSTY NW WINDS IN ITS WAKE. WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAKING ITS CLOSEST APPROACH LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT AND REGION UNDER RIGHT REAR QUAD LIFT OF STRONG UPPER JET...A LOW CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT POST-FRONTAL PRECIP EXISTS BEFORE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS PUSHES OFFSHORE LATER MON NIGHT. CMC ENSEMBLE...GEFS...AND THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF SUPPORT THIS. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE RAIN MON AFT...BUT THEN CHANGING TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE BEFORE ENDING MON NIGHT. LITTLE TO ACCUM EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ARCTIC AIR MASS REMAIN SHUNTED WELL TO THE NORTH...BUT TEMPS SHOULD FALL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY TUES MORNING. MODERATING POLAR HIGH BUILDS IN TUESDAY...WITH DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL LIKELY RUN 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGH GENERALLY IN THE 30S. UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST INCREASES FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK AS MODELS DIFFER IN THE INTERACTION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND A CLOSED POLAR LOW NW OF HUDSON BAY AND ITS INTERACTION WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY. THE CMC/ECMWF AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES ARE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS INTERACTION...PIVOTING A PHASED AND STRONG SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST WED NIGHT. THE GFS IS TAME WITH THIS INTERACTIONS AND SIGNALING A PRACTICALLY FLAT UPPER FLOW...WHILE THE GEFS DEPICTS A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE PASSAGE LIKE CMC/ECMWF ENSEMBLES. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW AS DEPICTED BY THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...A RETURN FLOW TUE NIGHT IN WAKE OF EXITING POLAR HIGH AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM...SHOULD SPELL AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIP TUES NIGHT INTO WED. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT WINTRY PRECIP TO START TUE NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY CHANGING TO RAIN FROM S TO N ON WED. COLD AIR DAMMING COULD MAKE FZRA STUBBORN ACROSS INTERIOR TRI-STATE ON WED. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT WED NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE AXIS PIVOTS THROUGH...WITH ANOTHER GLANCING SHOT OF CAA IN ITS WAKE. MODERATED POLAR HIGH PRESSURE LIKELY BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY WITH DRY AND BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS. MODEL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PAC SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING LATE WEEK...BUT TIMING INTO REGION DIFFERS FROM THU INTO FRI BASED ON ABOVE MENTIONED DIFFERENCES WITH THE PRIOR NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. HAVING FAVORED MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER PATTERN...HAVE DELAYED CHANCE POPS WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE UNTIL FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THROUGH TONIGHT. VFR. NW WINDS RIGHT AROUND 310 MAGNETIC EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS MOVE IN AFTER 06Z AND REMAIN THROUGH SAT. POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS AFTER 00Z FOR 30H TAFS. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUN THROUGH WED... .SAT NIGHT-SUN...PATCHY DRIZZLE AND MVFR CONDS ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...OTHERWISE VFR. .SUN NIGHT-MON...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AT KSWF...OTHERWISE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. .TUE...VFR. .WED...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS. && .MARINE... NW WINDS TO GUST TO 25 KT THROUGH THE EVENING ON THE OUTER OCEAN WATERS...SO SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 1 AM. WINDS ON THE EASTERN SOUND HAVE FALLEN JUST BELOW 25 KT AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING...SO THE ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7PM. QUIET CONDS LATER TONIGHT INTO SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. INCREASING SW FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER PD OF SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN AND POSSIBLY THE ERN SOUND/BAYS SAT NIGHT. SCA OCEAN SEAS ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY...WITH MARGINAL SW SCA WINDS CONTINUING. SSW SCA SWELLS COULD LINGER ON THE OCEAN... PARTICULARLY EAST...INTO MON AFTERNOON. SCA SEAS COULD CONTINUE INTO MON NIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF MARGINAL NW SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF A MON AFTERNOON COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SUB SCA CONDS THEN EXPECTED BY TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS...WITH NEXT CHANCE OF MARGINAL SCA CONDS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353- 355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330- 340. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/NV NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/NV SHORT TERM...GOODMAN LONG TERM...NV AVIATION...DW MARINE...GOODMAN/NV HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/NV

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