Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 280238 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1038 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH MAY IMPACT THE AREA EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE WILL BE GLANCED BY WESTERN EDGE OF JET CIRRUS SHIELD OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS RURAL AREAS BASED ON TEMPS TRENDS...SUPPORTING A SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMP FORECAST FOR MOST THE REGION TONIGHT. URBAN CENTERS WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY...THEN BEGINS TO CONNECT WITH WNW-NW EXTENSION OF SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHER THAN POSSIBLY SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE. FOR HIGHS FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 900-850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A COMPOSITE OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE TO BE MORE PRONOUNCED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THAN THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SLIGHTLY WARMER LAND TEMPERATURES. ONCE AGAIN EXPECT DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MINIMAL IF ANY CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS...SO ONCE AGAIN SHADED TOWARDS COOLER OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS...AND UNDER CUT IN NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS. OVER URBAN AREAS AGAIN USED A MAV/MET/ECS BLEND WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES BECOMES ENTRENCHED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. WITH A PERSISTENT S- SW FLOW...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS SFC DEWPOINTS RISE FROM THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S ON SATURDAY TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS...AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR LONG ISLAND AND SE CT BY TUESDAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST OF THE CWA...AND INTO THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 FOR NYC AND AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. WEAKENING H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMBO WILL APPROACH WESTERN ZONES ON MONDAY...AND THEN WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME. CAPE VALUES WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH DUE TO THE WARM AIR AND HUMIDITY... AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY DUE TO THE COLD POOL ALOFT AS THAT SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. WHAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IS IF THERE IS A STRONG ENOUGH TRIGGERING MECHANISM TO SPARK OFF CONVECTION. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE TERMINALS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND...4 KT TO 8 KT PREVAILS OVERNIGHT. THE WIND BACKS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST FRIDAY MORNING WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING AND MOVING INLAND. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES LIKELY AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
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&& .MARINE... A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP WINDS AT 10-15 KT OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT SEAS TO 3 FT OR LESS OVER THE OCEAN AND WAVES/SEAS AT 1 FT OR LESS OVER THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS. WITH A GENERALLY WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD...CAN EXPECT MAINLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY-TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS AND THE MOUTH OF NY HARBOR ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS ENHANCED LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES COULD RESULT IN OCCASIONAL 25 KT WIND GUSTS LATE EACH AFTERNOON. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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WITH FULL MOON APPROACHING ON SATURDAY...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE COASTAL AREAS THIS WEEKEND INTO THE START OF THE WORKWEEK.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MPS NEAR TERM...MALOIT SHORT TERM...MALOIT LONG TERM...MPS AVIATION...JP MARINE...MALOIT/MPS HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/MPS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV

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