Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 062256 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 656 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE THEN APPROACHES AND PASSES TO THE SOUTH DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR THE DELMARVA WITH OUR REGION NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. WE WILL BE RECEIVING EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT...RELATIVELY HIGHER THIS EVENING WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTER AND THEN LESS OVERNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES AS THE LOW WEAKENS. THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SHOWERS SURROUNDING THE LOW ARE AFFECTING MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST REGION WITH DRIER LOW TO MID LEVEL AIR MITIGATING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FARTHER WEST. STACKED/CUTOFF LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT ACROSS THE REGION ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. WITH SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED/SPOTTY IN NATURE WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE WHERE PRECIP IS NOT FALLING DUE TO OCCASIONAL WEAK LIFT. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WINDS WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BUT MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH A LOW LEVEL TEMP INVERSION AT AROUND 1500 FT. TEMPS SHOULD NOT FALL OFF MUCH OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY 45-50 DEG.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES SATURDAY AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO UNRAVEL AND PUSHES BACK OFFSHORE. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP/DRIZZLE APPEAR EARLY IN THE MORNING...AND SOME AREAS MAY SEE SOME SUN IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL TEMP INVERSION WEAKENS AND MOISTURE DECREASES. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE DIFFICULT AND BASED ON JUST HOW MUCH SUN OCCURS...BUT GENERALLY EXPECTING HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60 MOST PLACES. SATURDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION ALONG WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT...AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. GREATEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE NORTH OF NYC. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND 50 DEG ONCE AGAIN. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH DURING SUNDAY MORNING WITH CHC POPS. THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE DRY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWER OVER SE CT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS BASED ON 850 TEMPS AND DECENT DOWNSLOPE FLOW. FOR MONDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP US DRY...BUT THERE`S SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUD COVER AND RESULTING HIGH TEMP FORECAST. BASED ON 850 TEMPS AND SW FLOW...WENT WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE. IN GENERAL...MONDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER VERSUS SUNDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LI AND SE CT SHORE AREAS. LOW PRESSURE THEN APPROACHES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW IS UNCERTAIN...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT IT WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. WILL CAP POPS AT CHC TUESDAY THROUGH WEDS NIGHT...BUT OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN FROM THIS WOULD BE ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS AGREE WITH RIDGING ALOFT ON THURSDAY. WILL THEREFORE WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST. WENT A LITTLE ABOVE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...BUT THINKING IS THAT HIGH TEMPS MIGHT NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD FURTHER. A COLD FRONT COULD THEN BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT...IMPACTING THE AREA. GENERALLY -DZ OR -RA THROUGH THE NIGHT. CIGS WILL CONTINUE A DOWNWARD TREND TO IFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MVFR VSBYS. E WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT AT THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN GENERALLY 5-10 KT OVERNIGHT...BUT SLIGHTLY STRONGER AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TONIGHT MAY BE OFF BY 1 TO 2 HOURS. LOW PROB OF LIFR CONDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TONIGHT MAY BE OFF BY 1 TO 2 HOURS. LOW PROB OF LIFR CONDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TONIGHT MAY BE OFF BY 1 TO 2 HOURS. LOW PROB OF LIFR CONDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TONIGHT MAY BE OFF BY 1 TO 2 HOURS. LOW PROB OF LIFR CONDS DEVELOPING BY MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TONIGHT MAY BE OFF BY 1 TO 2 HOURS. MODERATE PROB OF LIFR CONDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TONIGHT MAY BE OFF BY 1 TO 2 HOURS. LOW PROB OF LIFR CONDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED... .SATURDAY AFTERNOON-SATURDAY NIGHT...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LIKELY ON SATURDAY. MVFR CIGS COULD CONTINUE INTO SAT NIGHT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. .SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND NW WINDS G20KT IN THE AFTERNOON. .MON...VFR. .TUE...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SUB VFR IN RAIN IS POSSIBLE .WED...SUB VFR IN RAIN. && .MARINE...
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GUSTS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW GALE FORCE. STILL THOUGH EXPECTING GUSTS 25-30 KT EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING SO SCA IS IN PLACE FOR ALL WATERS THIS EVENING. GUSTS WILL START TO DROP OFF MORE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SO SCA OVERNIGHT WILL BE EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND UNTIL 2AM DUE TO SOME LINGERING HIGHER SEAS OF 5-6 FT AND ALL NIGHT FOR THE OCEAN DUE TO LINGERING SWELL AND HIGHER OCEAN SEAS OF NEAR 6-8 FT. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS SATURDAY SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. THE LIGHTER WINDS WILL KEEP SCA FOR THE OCEAN...WESTERN OCEAN UNTIL NOON SATURDAY AND THE OCEAN TO THE EAST...REST OF THE DAY SATURDAY. THE HIGHER SCA OCEAN SEAS COULD VERY WELL EXTEND INTO SATURDAY EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO EXTEND SCA INTO THAT FORECAST TIMEFRAME. GUSTY WNW FLOW COULD BRING SOME GUSTS TO 25 KTS ON SUNDAY...PRIMARILY OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN DURING THIS TIME WILL PROBABLY BE UP TO 5 FT BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT AT SOME POINT DURING SUNDAY NIGHT. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND A LACK OF BUILDING SWELL THEN RESULT IN SUB-SCA CONDS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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MOSTLY LIGHT QPF BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... FOR TONIGHT...HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL TIDES OF THE YEAR PEAK. SURGE SHOULD PEAK INTO EARLY EVENING...THEN BEGIN TO FALL LATER TONIGHT. FCST REFLECTS COMBO OF ETSS AND STEVENS GUIDANCE ADJUSTED UPWARD...WITH CLOSE TO 2 FT IN THE BACK BAYS OF SOUTHERN NASSAU... AND GENERALLY 1 TO 1.5 FT ELSEWHERE. WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING STILL EXPECTED ALONG ROCKAWAY INLET...JAMAICA BAY...AND THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF NASSAU...AND LOCALIZED MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SHORELINE OF NORTHERN NASSAU. WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG OTHER SHORELINES OF WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...THE GREAT SOUTH BAY...STATEN ISLAND...AND THE TIDAL WATERWAYS OF NE NJ. LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG SHORELINES OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND...THE BRONX...MANHATTAN...AND NORTHERN QUEENS. MINOR BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY ON ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT DUE TO E TO W SWEEP OF 3 TO 6 FT SURF. FOR SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH ASTRO TIDES REMAIN STEADY TO SLIGHTLY DROPPING OFF...SURGE SHOULD SUBSIDE A BIT AS WELL. LOCALIZED MODERATE FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU. WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY ALONG SHORELINES OF WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NYC...STATEN ISLAND... AND THE TIDAL WATERWAYS OF NE NJ. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...TIDES AND SURGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...BUT RESIDUAL MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CTZ009-010. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 3 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR CTZ009-010. NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ071-078-177. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 3 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ071-078-177. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075- 178-179. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ074-075-178-179. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ074. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ080. NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ006-106-108. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ006- 106-108. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ335-338- 340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/GS NEAR TERM...JM/GS SHORT TERM...GS LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...JP/DW MARINE...JC/JM/GS HYDROLOGY...JC/GS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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