Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 222346 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 746 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS OVER SE CT A BIT BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. OTHERWISE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY T/TD/WINDS. DEEPENING MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH. MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAXES RIDING THIS FLOW...EACH BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN. WATCHING A WEAK WAVE/VORT MAX MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NY/EASTERN PA...WHICH HAS ALREADY BEEN TRIGGERING SCT SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR REGIONS. MINIMAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE NEARER THE COAST WHERE THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW HAS PRODUCED A MORE STABLE AIRMASS ALONG WITH THE ALL DAY BKN-OVC SKY COVER. AS SUCH...THINKING ANY PCPN THIS EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT WILL BE RESTRICTED WEST/NORTH OF NYC METRO UNDER THE BETTER FORCING. HOWEVER...WITH THE FORCING WEAK AND LITTLE LIFT AT THE SFC...CAPPED POPS AT LOW END CHC...THEN DRYING OUT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR TONIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. COULD SEE PATCHY FOG WITH SOME MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... UPPER LVL TROUGH BEGINS PIVOTING OUT OF THE REGION AS THE STRONG RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL US BEGINS TO NUDGE EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PUSHING SOUTH FROM CANADA WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. KEPT THE AREA DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...THEN INTRODUCED POPS ONCE AGAIN FOR THE AFTN WITH THE PASSING OF THE FINAL SHORTWAVE/ASSOCIATED VORT MAX. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS ON WHERE THE PASSAGE OCCURS...BUT OVERALL THINKING THE BEST CHC...IF ANYTHING DOES FORM...WILL BE WEST OF NYC METRO. BECAUSE CONFIDENCE IS LOW OF OCCURRING AND OF ANY COVERAGE...CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHC...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE MOST THE AREA REMAINS DRY. THE SHORTWAVE EXITS EARLY SAT NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT. YET ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE CONTINUAL ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS. SKIES FINALLY START TO SCATTER OUT TOMORROW NIGHT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOW TEMPS TO DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE OVER CANADA IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST...DROPPING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA ON THURSDAY. EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND IMPROVING TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE ARE FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 2000 FT ALONG THE COAST WHICH MAY BECOME BROKEN FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH 04Z. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUN THROUGH WED... .SAT NIGHT-WED...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OVER THE WATERS. PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW MAY BUILD THE OUTER EDGES OF THE OCEAN WATERS TO AROUND 5 FT TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT MAINLY EXPECTING BETWEEN 3-4 FT FOR THE OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS ELSEWHERE. GUSTS AT MOST WILL REACH 20 KTS ON THE OCEAN. QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL AREA WATERS EXPECTED THEN TO LAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. SEAS INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA WATERS FROM THE WEST. && .HYDROLOGY... ANY SHOWER THIS EVENING WILL BE SLOWING MOVING IN NATURE...WHICH COULD RESULT UP TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$

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