Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 051622 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1222 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVERHEAD WITH CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. E/NE WINDS WILL VEER TO SE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. LIMITED MIXING IN THIS AIR MASS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS NEAR SEASONABLE...UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... UPPER RIDGING REMAINS OVERHEAD...WITH CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDING ESE OF THE REGION. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS AND CANADIAN AIRMASS IN PLACE SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS ACROSS RURAL AREAS TO FALL INTO THE 50S. ELSEWHERE GENERALLY 60S. MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY SUNDAY EXPECTED. A DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AND WAA SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BEGIN MODERATING. LIMITED MIXING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE THE LOWER 80S TO 85. AFTERNOON COASTAL SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MIDWEEK. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NE UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY FLATTENING THROUGH MIDWEEK...BUT REGION CONTINUING TO BE UNDER CONTROL OF BROAD WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING. THERE ALSO CONTINUES TO BE DEPICTION OF A BROAD AND WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE SE US...PART OF WHICH MAY SHEAR NE EARLY THIS WEEK. PREDICTABILITY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE IS LOW...WITH LOW PROB OF ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS. OTHERWISE...GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING WEAKENING ENOUGH DURING MID TO LATE WEEK TO ALLOW FOR MORE ACTIVE WESTERLIES TO BEGIN IMPINGING ON THE NE. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGIES CONTINUE TO BE IN QUESTION. DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SE OF THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH BERMUDA HIGH. HIGHS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD. GENERALLY UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...WITH HEAT INDICES AT THIS POINT LOOKING JUST NEAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN TEMPS. IF RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AS DEPICTED...ALLOWING FOR MORE ACTIVE WESTERLIES TO WORK TOWARDS THE REGION DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK...THIS WOULD ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN POOR ON THE DETAILS...BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME AGREEMENT ON A FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION LATE WED OR THU...THEN LINGERING NEAR THE REGION...UNTIL IT CAN BE PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION BY STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE ON DAILY DETAILS IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS LOW AT THIS POINT...BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME WETTING RAINFALL. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY. VFR. NE WINDS 10KT OR LESS VEERING SE AROUND 10KT WITH SEA BREEZES EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL OCEAN WATERS. SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 5 FT AT 44065...BUT ARE STILL LINGERING NEAR 5 FT AT 44025. FEEL SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WINDS RELAX A BIT. THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING SEAS NEAR 5 FT IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THESE ZONES. SUB SCA CONDITIONS THEN PREVAIL ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. A GUST OR TWO 20-25KT WILL BE POSSIBLE TUES/WEDS AFTERNOONS/EARLY EVENINGS WEST OF POINT LOOKOUT WITH SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT. && .FIRE WEATHER... KBDI VALUES BETWEEN 500 AND 700 AND 1 HR FUELS MOISTURE OF 5 TO 8 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED TODAY. E/NE WIND GUSTS INTO THE TEENS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING...DECREASING AND BECOMING SE THIS AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON. && .HYDROLOGY... NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING DROUGHT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/WORSEN REGION WIDE. NORTHEASTERN NJ...LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NV NEAR TERM...DS/NV SHORT TERM...NV LONG TERM...NV AVIATION...BC/JC MARINE...JC/DS FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...NV

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