Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 050532 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 132 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST...OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING LATE. LIGHT WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS...WITH 60S ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE OCEAN BEACHES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN...WITH WEAK THERMAL TROUGHING EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH JUST SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WARMEST IN NYC METRO AND THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. AFTERNOON SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT...WILL KEEP SOUTH COASTS IN THE LOWER 80S. TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS WITH CLEARS SKIES...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND MODERATING MOISTURE LEVELS. UPPER RIDGING REMAIN IN CONTROL ON MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW LIFTS INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES OFFSHORE. THIS WILL SPELL MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SPELL INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPS ACROSS THE NYC/NJ METRO AND INTERIOR SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLY LEVELS...MID TO UPPER 80S. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS NEAR SEASONABLE...LOWER 80S-85. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SW WEAKENS FURTHER TO A TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS IT PUSHES TOWARDS OUR AREA. THIS TROUGH SHOULD STICK AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY CLOSER TO THE WESTERN ZONES. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSTM BEGINS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...THEN POPS INCREASE TO CHC DURING TUESDAY WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOR ROUGHLY THE NW HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE GONE A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE OF HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY...BUT THEY STILL MIGHT BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO LOW...ESPECIALLY IF FEWER CLOUDS MATERIALIZE THAN FORECAST. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SE THE FRONT MOVES BEFORE STALLING. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT...BUT THIS MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ROUGHLY THE SAME FROPA TIME AND INCREASING MOISTURE. ENOUGH CAPE IS PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH HIGH PWATS...FAIRLY LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR TRAINING STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING. WILL KEEP MENTION OF THIS OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE BUILDS. THERE APPEARS TO BE AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT THE COLD FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF US DURING THURSDAY AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGS US A CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF DRY WEATHER. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY. PATCHY FOG...WITH MVFR OR IFR VSBYS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY 12Z. NYC METRO THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN VFR. THEN...FEW CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. VFR. LIGHT OR CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME W/NW AROUND 12Z AT 4 TO 8 KTS. THEN...EXPECT LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP. WINDS LIGHTEN TONIGHT. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .SUN NIGHT...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN FOG. .MON...VFR WITH S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SUB VFR IN PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT POSSIBLE. .TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS. .TUE NIGHT...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. .WED...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. SW FLOW. .THU...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS. FLOW BECOMING NE. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND REMAINS INTO MONDAY. NORTHERLY WIND WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT. OCEAN SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5 FT WITH SOUTHERLY SWELLS...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS. OTHERWISE WIND AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES ON TUESDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND STALLS OVER THE WATERS ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT COULD COME CLOSE TO REACHING CRITERIA THRESHOLDS HOWEVER ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE FRONT OVERHEAD OR NEARBY ON THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH. && .HYDROLOGY... DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AT LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOWEVER STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... COMBO OF A RECENT FULL MOON AND SOME TIDAL PILING VIA ELEVATED OCEAN SEAS MAY CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE BRIEFLY TOUCHED ALONG A FEW LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY AT THE PEAK OF THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. THE THREAT WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS ASTRONOMICAL TIES CONTINUE TO DROP. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/NV NEAR TERM...JC/NV SHORT TERM...NV LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...PW MARINE...JC/NV HYDROLOGY...JC/NV TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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