Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 191805 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 205 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS AND/OR TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZES HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG COASTAL AREAS. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S NEAR THE COAST. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A SUNNY SKY CONDITION IS FORECAST OVERALL THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING CONTINUES BUILDING OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE EAST AND OFFSHORE TOWARDS THE EVENING. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL COMPARED TO SATURDAY... GENERALLY TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST AREAS. ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CT...TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER...TOPPING OFF IN THE LOW 60S...AND TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW 50S CLOSER TO THE COASTS...AS OCEAN TEMPS ARE ONLY IN THE 40S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DRIFT OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE... SFC LOW PRES WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...AND A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THIS WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS SEEM TO BE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION. WILL THEREFORE CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR THE WESTERN ZONES AND WILL KEEP NEW LONDON COUNTY AND EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY MAINLY DRY FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD. WARM FRONT THEN LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. A 50-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIFT THROUGH WITH THE WARM FRONT...AND THIS WILL HELP ENHANCE PRECIPITATION WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY MORNING AND INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND/COASTAL CT ON MONDAY...WITH WINDS RANGING FROM 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN SHOULD PUSH EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW PRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES THEN PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY INCREASING...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TSTMS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH A FEW H5 SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... WEAK SURFACE RIDGING KEEPS THE REGION DRY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PASSES THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT. CHANCE SHOWERS...PRIMARILY FOR LATE DAY AND EVENING HOURS. WENT A LITTLE ABOVE WPC/GMOS BLEND FOR HIGHS...MORE SO OVER SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE SW FLOW WON`T ADVECT COOLER AIR FROM THE WATERS. FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE ENTIRE PERIOD COULD BE DRY. LEFT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO PRESENCE OF UPPER LOW/COLD POOL. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMALS...BUT AT LEAST IN THE 50S DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A WARM FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST. VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z. CONDITIONS THEN LOWER TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT...THEN TO IFR AT WESTERN TERMINALS BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES...COULD BE OFF +/- 2-4 HOURS. WIND MAINLY ESE-SE...EXCEPT E KSWF WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN BACK TO THE ESE-E THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW KNOTS INCREASE IN SPEED. WINDS INCREASE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 6Z TO 15-20KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25KT PROBABLE...AND THEN AGAIN AFTER 12Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT OUT OF THE ESE-SE. LLWS IS EXPECTED AT ALL BUT KSWF AFTER 12Z. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN LLWS THAN IN GUSTS. COULD END UP WITH GUSTS ONLY A FEW KT HIGHER THAN WIND SPEED. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .MONDAY AFTERNOON...IFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. LLWS EARLY. E-SE WINDS 15-25KT LIKELY GUSTS TO 20-25 KT LIKELY EARLY. .MONDAY NIGHT. IFR OR LOWER PROBABLE. ISOLATED TSTM POSSIBLE. .TUESDAY...MVFR EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. W-SW WINDS GUSTS 15-20KT POSSIBLE. .TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. .WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN -SHRA. SW-WSW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE. .THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR IN ANY -SHRA. W-NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... SE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 10-15 KT...AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT WILL DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN/NY HARBOR/SOUTH SHORE BAYS THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. OCEAN SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 5-7 FT DURING THE NIGHT. WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY...WITH WIDESPREAD WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KT...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS...AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A GALE WATCH TO BE NEEDED ON MONDAY. STRONGEST WINDS END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT AND LOW LEVEL JET MOVES TO THE EAST. COLD FRONT THEN MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS ON TUESDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN TO THE NW LATE. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO BE AT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A PORTION OF TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY...A W TO SW FLOW COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP SEAS CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 5 FT ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS....THEN WINDS PICK UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY ON ALL OCEAN WATERS AS WELL AS POSSIBLY THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS. && .HYDROLOGY... SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS COULD CAUSE POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB SITE. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... INCREASING E/SE FLOW MONDAY MAY RESULT IN LOCAL TO WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH FOLLOWING A NEW MOON. IN SOME CASES...DEPARTURES OF ONLY HALF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEEDED. STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE WATERS LEVELS 1 TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE NORMAL. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ338-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ330- 335-340. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS NEAR TERM...MPS/DS SHORT TERM...MPS LONG TERM...JC/PW AVIATION...MALOIT MARINE...JC/MPS HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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