Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 272057 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 357 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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THROUGH THIS EVENING...PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL END ACROSS EASTERN CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND AS AN UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE NC COAST AND MOVES NE. MODELS SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING NW FROM THIS LOW TOWARD SE NEW ENGLAND. THIS LOW LVL CONVERGENCE COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CT DEPENDING ON WHERE IT DEVELOPS. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER UPPER LVL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER AND WEST OF NYC...WHICH IS WHY A 20 PCT POP WAS INCLUDED AREA WIDE. MELTED SNOW WILL RE-FREEZE OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL MAINLY INTO THE 20S EXCEPT RIGHT AROUND 30 DEGS IN NYC.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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FRIDAY...A COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRES SYS WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LVL TROUGH BRINGING A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WILL BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE TEENS AND 20S TO START THE DAY BEFORE RISING INTO THE 30S DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD DAY IS ON TAP WITH TEMPS AVERAGING ARND 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. FRIDAY NIGHT...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL RESULT AS SFC WINDS DECOUPLE FROM THE UPPER FLOW AS HIGH PRES PASSES OVERHEAD. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S AREA WIDE.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL FAST MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. PAC SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH POLAR JET ENERGY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MON...AND ANOTHER WED AFT/EVE. LIGHT TO MODERATE WARM ADVECTION PCPN PRECEDES EACH SYSTEM WITH A BRIEF MIX OF FROZEN PCPN AT THE ONSET POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR BEFORE THERMO PROFILES WARM. SUN MORNING AND TUE NIGHT ARE THE TIMES OF INTEREST. THE LATTER IS POTENTIALLY THE MORE SIGNIFICANT OF THE TWO AS IT PRECEDED BY A TRANSIENT 1045 MB HIGH MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WARM SECTOR RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL PRECEDE EACH COLD FRONT. FOR THE MOST PART...LOOKING AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW...THE EXCEPTION BEING SAT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH RESIDUAL COLD AIR IN PLACE...AND TUE FOLLOWING THE MON COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS. THE ECMWF IS ALSO MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NE ON WED. THUS...IT IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AND AMOUNT OF QPF.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A SURFACE TROUGH NEARBY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES. LOOKS LIKE VFR WILL PREVAIL...BUT WITH TEMPO MVFR. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MVFR PREVAILS INSTEAD...WITH TEMPO VFR. AFTER AROUND 01Z-03Z CONFIDENCE OF PREVAILING VFR INCREASES. WINDS PRIMARILY BELOW 10 KT. DIRECTION SHOULD FAVOR NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC. HOWEVER...AT KEWR...IT PROBABLY FAVORS SOUTH OF 310. FOR FRIDAY...VFR AND NW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRI THROUGH TUE... .FRI-SUN...VFR. .SUN NIGHT-MON...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. .TUE...VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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SEVERAL NEAR AND SHORT TERM FORECAST CHANGES WERE MADE. ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WERE CANCELLED THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT FROM MORICHES INLET TO MONTAUK PT...WHERE THEY WERE EXTENDED UNTIL MIDNIGHT SAT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED FOR WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT... 6 AM - 7 PM FRI FROM SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY 6 AM - MIDNIGHT SAT FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET EAST TO MONTAUK PT...EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND GARDINERS AND PECONIC BAYS ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE NW WINDS OF 15-25 KT BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. OCEAN SEAS/WINDS COULD AGAIN REACH MARGINAL SCA LEVELS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT VIA A MODERATE SW FLOW. SCA SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE OCEAN INTO MON. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FROM MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GC NEAR TERM...GC SHORT TERM...GC LONG TERM...DW AVIATION...JC MARINE...GC/DW HYDROLOGY...GC/DW

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