National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 170538
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
138 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST OF AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND LASTS INTO MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM FORECAST TRENDS. CURRENT
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL DISSIPATE BY 01Z AND SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL CONTINUE DECREASING...BECOMING DECOUPLED FROM THE UPPER
WIND FLOW MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME IDEAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING LEADING TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

COMPLICATING THIS FORECAST IS A PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT COULD
POTENTIALLY BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS FROM DECOUPLING.
THIS WOULD HAVE MORE IMPLICATIONS OVER COASTAL CT...LONG
ISLAND...AND ZONES ADJACENT TO THE CITY WHERE FREEZE WARNING
CRITERIA MIGHT NOT THEN BE MET.

NO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TIE OR BREAK RECORDS...BUT WILL AT
LEAST COME CLOSE. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY SUNNY ON THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF BELOW-NORMAL HIGHS.
MIXING WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED TO AROUND 925MB WHERE THE FCST
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -3C AT THIS HEIGHT...SIMILAR TO WHAT
THEY WERE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE THEREFORE GONE NEAR THE COLDER NAM
MOS GUIDANCE. HIGHS ONLY 45-50 FOR THE MOST PART.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A NE TO ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW. MODELS AGREE THAT
THIS ADVECTS IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE RESULTING CLOUD COVER WILL SERVE TO KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS STARTED....SO NO FREEZE WATCH/WARNING
CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

THE DEPTH OF THIS MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...ONLY UP THROUGH ABOUT 925
MB. NAM...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE...GFS SHOWS SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL
LIFT MOVING THROUGH DURING FRIDAY. NOT SURE IF THIS WILL BE ENOUGH
TO WARRANT POPS DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING HOW SHALLOW
THIS MOISTURE IS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND A SUN
ANGLE THAT COULD ERODE CLOUDS/MOISTURE. HOWEVER...DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHC POPS THAT WERE IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. PCPN TYPE WOULD BE DRIZZLE DUE TO SHALLOW DEPTH
OF THE MOISTURE. SIDED WITH THE COLDER NAM MOS ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND EAST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SPOTTY SHOWERS/DRIZZLE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY LOOKS
LIMITED SO HAVE DROPPED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKENDS
SHOULD BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY...CROSSING THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE.
ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS DURING THE DAY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND
NIGHT TIME LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MOVES TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES DURING THE DAY TODAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOW PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CIGS AFT 00Z
FRI...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

N/NNE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 4-8 KT THROUGH AROUND 12Z. WINDS VEER
TO THE EAST AFT 12Z...AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT. WINDS DIMINISH TO
8-12 KT AFT 03Z FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...PSBL MVFR CIGS.
.SATURDAY...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR
.MONDAY...VFR
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
A BUILDING SE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SEAS JUST ABOVE 5 FT ON THE
OCEAN WATERS. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OVER THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WHERE SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT BEING
MET...HOWEVER...THE EXPECTATION IS FOR BUILDING SEAS AND
STRENGTHENING WINDS LATER ON IN THE NIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO
AN ONSHORE FLOW.

SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON THURSDAY. FOR THE
OTHER WATERS...OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. A DECENT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP SEAS ON THE OCEAN ABOVE THE OCEAN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SCA
COULD BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY AS WELL.

SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTHEAST OF THE OCEAN WATERS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
THAT WOULD HAVE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING APRIL 17:

EWR - 30 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 34
BDR - 30 IN 1962  FORECAST LOW - 32
NYC - 28 IN 1875  FORECAST LOW - 35
LGA - 32 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 37
JFK - 33 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 34
ISP - 30 IN 2005  FORECAST LOW - 31

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ069>071-073-
     078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ004-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/FIG
NEAR TERM...GC/JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/FIG
HYDROLOGY...JC/FIG
CLIMATE...