Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 221727 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 127 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Deepening low pressure off the coast of Maine will track north through Maine and into eastern Canada today through Sunday. A cold front will move southeast across the area early Monday morning followed by Canadian high pressure through Wednesday. Low pressure will move slowly east toward the area Thursday through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Deepening low pressure was off the Maine coast with pressure rises increasing across southern and western zones. Winds and gusts have been increasing in response, with sustained winds nearing wind advisory levels. Will not see best mixing with the light rain and cloud cover inhibiting heating. Likely reach advisory levels late this afternoon into this evening. Wrap-around moisture was moving through with areas of light rain. Main area of rain has lifted north of the Connecticut zones quicker than forecast. And next area more scattered. So have lowered probabilities back to likely with the rain ending this evening. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Any leftover showers tapper off from south to north tonight as moisture and forcing lift northward with the low. Gusty west winds up to 50 mph, strongest at the coast, will continue as the low slowly lifts to the north. Wind advisory remains up overnight for LI/NYC/SE CT. Winds during the day on Sunday will gusts up to 40 mph for most locations. Upper trough lifts across eastern Canada on Sunday with a gradually weakening surface low. High pressure builds east across the southeast. Lows tonight will be near seasonable levels as gusty winds inhibit strong radiational cooling. Highs on Sunday rebound to near normal with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Clipper low approaches Sunday night and sends a cold front through the area by daybreak Monday. There is decent lift in the 85h-500h layer with a good chance of showers. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Monday through Wed will be quite cool as a building canadian high pressure system moves east across New England, bringing overnight low temps into the 30s across most of the local area, even across parts of NYC on Tuesday night. Grab those jackets. Thu-Fri will bring our next chance of rain as low lvl warm air advection increases between the departing Canadian high and a low approaching across the Great Lakes. && .AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Low pressure moves into Northern New England and southeast Canada through Sunday with high pressure building to the southwest. WNW winds will continue to increase through the afternoon with sustained winds becoming 20-25 kt. Gusts around 35 kt are expected with an occasional gust reaching 40 kt possible late this afternoon and early evening, especially near the coast. Gusty WNW winds will continue tonight into Sunday. Strongest gusts may decrease a bit after 04z to around 25 to 30 kt before increasing again during the day Sunday with peak gusts up to 35 kt. -SHRA continue this afternoon, ending this evening. Flight categories will continue improving to VFR with KGON the last terminal to see improvement late this afternoon. .Outlook for 18Z Sunday through Thursday... .Sunday...VFR. WNW winds G25-35 kt likely. .Sunday night-Monday morning...Mainly VFR, NW winds G20-25 kt possible early. Chance of showers after midnight. .Monday afternoon-Tuesday...VFR, NW winds G20-25 kt. .Wednesday-Thursday...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... Updated the winds and seas forecast through early this afternoon, based on current conditions and track of low pressure off the Maine coast, forecast to deepen and track north through today. Westerly gales develop across all waters today as the low deepens and tracks north. Gales are forecast to continue through the day Sunday. Wind gusts may briefly drop below 25 kt Sunday night before a cold front passes early Monday morning. Wind gusts of 25-30kt are likely Monday through Tuesday. Winds and seas are forecast to decrease on Wednesday as high pressure moves across the area. && .HYDROLOGY... Additional rainfall today is expected to be in the range of a quarter to half an inch with isolated higher amounts. The highest amounts will be generally over the Husdon Valley and into interior southern Connecticut. Sunday night...scattered showers with rainfall of less than one tenth of an inch is forecast with the passage of a cold front. Thursday through Friday...A widespread rainfall of 1/2 to 1 inch is possible with the approach of low pressure from the Great Lakes. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for CTZ007-008-011-012. NY...Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for NYZ072>075-078>081- 176>179. NJ...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ330-335-338-340-345- 350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MET/DW NEAR TERM...MET SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...GC AVIATION...DS MARINE...MET HYDROLOGY...DW is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.