Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 282335 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 735 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DEEPENING OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS EAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NYC AND EAST. FORECAST OVERALL IS STILL MAINLY ON TRACK. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS AND POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACCORDING TO LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS. A DEEP UPPER TROF FEATURING A CLOSING OFF LOW OVER EASTERN PA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN AREA OF WEAK TO MODERATE LIFT ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WITH EMPHASIS TO THE EAST OF NYC AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT LIGHT SNOW ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT...WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES TO THE WEST. ONLY EXPECT MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING WITH ROADWAYS REMAINING MAINLY WET EARLY. A FEW SPOTS FURTHER EAST COULD SEE ANOTHER INCH. AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S LATE THIS EVENING...SOME ICY SPOTS MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ON SECONDARY AND UNTREATED ROADWAYS. A GUSTY NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS WELL WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDING EAST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS WELL INLAND...TOT HE MID 20S AT THE COAST. THIS IS WELL BELOW NORMAL BY ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUNNY SKIES WITH ANOTHER DAY WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. PREFERRED TO STAY JUST ABOVE MOS. A RETURN FLOW SETS UP BY EVENING AND STRENGTHENS SUN NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AT NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE WARMER...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL AND RISING TOWARD DAYBREAK. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SEND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL PASS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF NYC AND LONG ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WINTRY MIX OVERNIGHT ON TUESDAY. HIGHS AND LOWS WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW AND WARM MOIST AIR QUICKLY SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SUNDAY. GENERALLY VFR NYC METRO AND WEST...WITH MVFR OR IFR THIS EVENING TO THE EAST IN LIGHT SNOW. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...SNOW COVERAGE SHOULD SHRINK...WITH EASTERN TERMINALS HANGING ON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SKIES CLEAR SUNDAY MORNING...WITH FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED SUNDAY. GUSTY NW WINDS...MAINLY TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC...CONTINUE MOST OF THE NIGHT. SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 TO AS HIGH AS 25 KTS. GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT SUNDAY MORNING...AND NW WINDS EVENTUALLY SHIFT BRIEFLY TO THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. .MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. .MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. .TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -RA. .WEDNESDAY...VFR. .THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -RA. && .MARINE... MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN ON THE BACKSIDE OF LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE ON SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...BUT BUILD TO ABOVE SCA CRITERIA ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS WINDS AND WAVES DIMINISH AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. && .HYDROLOGY... A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A QUARTER INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE TO NONE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AND THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE TWIN FORKS AND NEW LONDON COUNTY CT. THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS SNOW. NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB SITE. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338- 340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FIG/DW NEAR TERM...DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...FIG AVIATION...PW MARINE...FIG/DW HYDROLOGY...FIG/DW

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