Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KOKX 250836
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
436 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017
A cold front over central New York and southern New England
will drift south through the Tri-State Region today. An
unsettled weather pattern continues Sunday into the middle of
next week. Cold front to our south returns to the region Sunday
night into Monday and moves offshore Monday night. Another
frontal system approaches on Tuesday and moves across Tuesday
night into Wednesday. High pressure returns Thursday ahead of
the next front on Friday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Temperatures are mild this morning amidst cloudy conditions and
subtle warm advection in southerly flow. High temperatures will
likely be achieved this morning or into the early afternoon
before a cold front begins to move through the area from
northeast to southwest. Initially very little precipitation is
expected, but gradual saturation and increased forcing for
ascent with an approaching upper low and the cold front will
lead to the development of light rain by afternoon-evening. A
second short wave will quickly follow for Tuesday, with the
attendant surface trough moving through during the evening.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Warm/moist advection will continue above the surface in broad
westerly then southwesterly flow, while cooler conditions at
the surface behind the cold front will maintain a strong
inversion over the area. Overall a favorable set up for patchy
fog and continued cloudy conditions as well as light rain or
drizzle through the weekend as an upper low slowly approaches
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Rain chances increase Sunday night into Monday as a short wave
passes through the area, allowing a warm front to return
northward. A second short wave quickly follows for Tuesday into
Wednesday, with the attendant surface trough/cold front moving
through Tuesday night. Temperatures Tuesday are expected to be
above normal as southerly flow strengthens following the warm
frontal passage. By Wednesday, flow returns to a west-northwest
direction with subsidence, enhanced by downslope flow and
clearing skies again leading to another potentially above normal
temperature day. The unsettled pattern continues through the end
of the week, with a degree of uncertainty for Thursday and
Friday depending on the overall evolution of a series of upper
waves emanating from the Pacific.
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front passes south of the terminals this morning. High
pressure then builds down from the north into Saturday evening.
VFR until 17Z-18Z, then MVFR conditions develop in light rain
and fog. IFR conditions likely late this afternoon, with patchy
LIFR conditions possible.
S-SW winds less than 10 kt become light and variable 12Z-13Z as
the front nears, then winds shift to NE with the cold front
passage, 10 KT or less.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Saturday night-Monday...IFR likely with LIFR or lower
possible. Periods of rain, drizzle and fog.
.Monday night-Tuesday night...MVFR or lower possible.
.Wednesday...becoming VFR. NW winds G15-20kt possible in the
A back door cold front was approaching from southern New England
into southern upstate New York. The front is expected to move slowly
across the waters this morning into this afternoon. A weak surface
pressure gradient was keeping winds below small craft advisory
levels. However, ocean seas east of Fire Island Inlet were running 4
to 6 feet with a component of a short period southerly swell. With
the passage of the cold front an east to northeast flow develops and
persists at least through the weekend as the cold front remains
south of the waters. The long fetch easterly flow will allow for
ocean seas to remain at minimal small craft levels into at least
Sunday and possibly into the beginning of the week. There may be a
brief period late this afternoon into this evening when ocean seas
will be below small craft levels.
With seas being the main hazard have converted to a small craft for
hazardous seas, Sunday west of Fire Island Inlet, and today through
Sunday east of Fire Island Inlet.
From late Monday through Monday night, sub-sca conditions are
forecast with an overall weak pressure gradient. Seas may build
again to around 5 feet Tuesday as a cold front passes through the
waters. Otherwise winds and seas should remain below SCA levels into
Rain chances gradually increase through Monday, with around a
half inch to an inch accumulation overall. Unsettled conditions
will continue through the week. With rain expected over a broad
period of time, no hydrologic concerns are anticipated at this
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT
Sunday for ANZ355.
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT Sunday