-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
151
FXUS61 KOKX 152012
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
412 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary will remain near the region through the
day on Wednesday before lifting to the north Wednesday night. A
surface trough moves slowly across the region Thursday followed
by a cold front late Thursday night into Friday morning. High
pressure builds in Friday and moves offshore Saturday. A warm
front moves through the region Sunday followed by a cold front
Sunday night into Monday. High pressure builds to the north for
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Outside of a few spotty showers this afternoon, with upper
ridging building into the region expecting mainly dry conditions
through the overnight. The atmosphere will remain quite moist
though, leading to another round of low clouds and patchy fog
overnight. With plenty of cloud cover, low temperatures will
only fall to around 70 in typically cooler locations and to the
mid 70s in the New York City metro area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper ridging moves offshore during the day as a shortwave
approaches the region from the southwest before crossing the
area Wednesday night.

Low clouds and patchy fog to start the day should give way to
gradual clearing by mid to late morning before clouds quickly
return ahead of the approaching shortwave. The abundance of
clouds may help limit temperatures somewhat, but with dewpoints
in the mid 70s, heat index values will rise into the mid to
upper 90s across the majority of the area. With hot and humid
conditions continuing on Thursday, a Heat Advisory has been
issued for the entire region with the exception of eastern
Suffolk County.

The approaching shortwave will spark scattered convection by
late afternoon for locations west of NYC, gradually translating
eastward across the rest of the area through the overnight
hours. While the overall severe threat remains minimal, with
precipitable water values at or above 2 inches any showers and
storms will be capable of producing heavy rain and localized
flash flooding. The flooding threat may be locally maximized
across portions of northeast New Jersey and the Lower Hudson
Valley given the wet antecedent conditions, but confidence in
the location of any heavier rainfall remains too low for a Flood
Watch at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
***Key Points***

* Heat and humidity continues for Thursday with a Heat Advisory in
  effect for most of the region. A few locations across northeastern
  New Jersey may reach heat indices around 105 Thursday afternoon.

* Showers and thunderstorms likely Thursday ahead of a cold front.
  Dry conditions return Friday and Saturday.

The peak of the heat and humidity will likely occur during
Thursday with heat indices across all but the Twin Forks of Long
Island reaching into the upper 90s to 100 to 104. A few
locations across northeastern New Jersey may peak at around 105,
which is Heat Warning levels. However, with extensive cloud
cover, and showers and thunderstorms becoming likely during the
afternoon, confidence in reaching these heat index levels is
low, therefore a Heat Warning was not issued at this time. Also,
the timing of the cold front has increased, with the passage
now late Thursday night into Friday morning. And with the
quicker timing of the passage drier air will be moving into the
region, so despite the continued heat, peak heat indices will
likely fall below advisory levels. With high precipitable water
values of 2 to 2.25 inches Thursday and showers and
thunderstorms have the potential of producing heavy rainfall,
with the threat of localized flooding.

High pressure builds into the region for Friday and moves
offshore Saturday. The cold front that moved through Friday
morning remains south of the region, and possibly moves into a
portion of the region Sunday before stalling as high pressure
passes well to the north. Another cold front passes Sunday night
into Monday, and may stall near the region into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A weakening frontal boundary nearly stalls within the region
through Wednesday.

There could be some additional pop-up showers in the vicinity
of some terminals into early this evening. Otherwise VFR
conditions expected through early this evening for most
terminals.

Then, for latter half of this evening, overnight into Wednesday
morning, low clouds and fog redevelop with a variance of
conditions across the region, mainly east of NYC terminals.
There will be increasing potential for MVFR to IFR.

Then, for Wednesday once the low clouds and fog decrease, VFR
conditions prevail again until showers and thunderstorms develop
mid afternoon into early evening Wednesday, presenting again
another chance for MVFR to possibly IFR conditions.

Winds overall mainly out of the south near 5-10 kts for much of
the TAF period.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible for brief thunderstorm before 22Z.

Amendments likely to refine timing of fog overnight into early
Wednesday morning.

IFR possible for early Wednesday.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday-Thursday: MVFR or lower in any afternoon/evening
showers/thunderstorms.

Friday-Saturday: Mainly VFR.

Sunday: MVFR or lower with showers and possible thunderstorms.


Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected through Wednesday night, with
winds generally remaining under 15 kt and seas remaining under 3
ft on the ocean.

Winds and seas across the forecast waters remain below advisory
levels Thursday. However, with an increasing and persistent
southwest flow ahead of an approaching cold front a few gusts
may be near SCA and ocean seas will be building and may approach
5 feet late in the day. And by Thursday evening ocean seas,
mainly east of Fire Island Inlet, will build to SCA levels. With
the passage of the cold front late Thursday night into early
Friday morning seas will subside below advisory levels.
Conditions will then remain below advisory the remainder of
Friday through Sunday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Localized flash flooding will be possible from scattered afternoon
and evening convection on Wednesday. Hydrologic impacts are not
expected Thursday through early next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
The risk for the development of rip currents remains low into
this evening. The low risk will remain Wednesday as a light
southerly flow continues with around 2 foot waves. With a
strengthening southwest flow Thursday, the risk for rip current
development will be moderate. Waves will be 2 to around 3 feet.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for CTZ005-
     009.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 10 PM EDT Thursday for
     CTZ005>012.
NY...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for
     NYZ069>075-176-178.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 10 PM EDT Thursday for
     NYZ067>075-078-080-176>179.
NJ...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 10 PM EDT Thursday for
     NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FEB/MET
NEAR TERM...FEB
SHORT TERM...FEB
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...FEB/MET
HYDROLOGY...FEB/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MET