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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 060859
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
359 AM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION EARLY TODAY. LOW PRESSURE RIDES THE
STALLED FRONT TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND IMPACTS THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR THE SECOND HALF.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY...WITH EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING SW TO NE.

AT THE SFC...THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
AFTER 12-14Z. THIS FRONT STALLS JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND MOVES TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC LATE IN THE DAY.

CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING AS VSBYS WILL
IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT. DENSE FOG ADV IN EFFECT TIL 13Z.

MORNING TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY FOR AN HOUR OR TWO...THEN FALL AS
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. IT IS LIKELY THAT 6 OR 7 AM
READINGS WILL BE THE DAY/S HIGH/S.

AS FOR RAIN...DO NOT FORESEE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE UNTIL LATER IN THE
DAY...AHEAD OF THE LOW. WILL CAP POPS AT LIKELY THROUGH THE
MORNING...AND THERE WILL BE TIMES WHEN NOT MUCH PRECIP IS
OBSERVED.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
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UPPER SW FLOW PREVAILS THIS TIME FRAME. COLD FRONT SAGS FURTHER
SOUTH IN TIME...AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.

FOR TONIGHT...COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH.
RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA...TO THE NORTH OF THE
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW/SLEET WILL
OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

AT THIS TIME...ANALYSIS OF MODEL SOUNDINGS AND LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST RAIN AND SLEET IN THE EVENING
OVER THE NW ZONES WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW/SLEET IN TIME. MAINLY
RAIN NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
FROM TIME TO TIME...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DO NOT FORESEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN AND THUS SIGNIFICANT
ICING BEHIND THE FRONT. AS SUCH...NO WINTER HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.

MINOR SNOW ACCUMS THOUGH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY SAT
MORNING.

CLOUDS IN THE MORNING GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.

CHILLY TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND 30 INLAND TO THE MIDDLE 30S NEAR
THE COAST LATE TONIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED. THEN TEMPS RISE TO THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. A
MET/MAV MOS BLEND FOLLOWED.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE REGION DRY SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOST OF THE
DAYTIME HOURS OF SUNDAY WITH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPS.

FOR LATE-DAY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST...BRINGING
PRECIP MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
CHANCE HOWEVER THAT THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES DEVELOP RIGHT BEFORE SUNSET ON
SUNDAY. PRECIP EVENTUALLY BECOMES LIKELY FOR THE CITY AND OTHER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS BY MIDNIGHT...THEN LIKELY FARTHER NORTH AND EAST
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FORECAST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER
DEVELOPING...RESULTING IN MIXED PRECIP TYPES. COMPLICATING THE
PRECIP TYPE FORECAST FURTHER WILL COOLING OF BOUNDARY LAYER AND
SURFACE TEMPS DUE TO WET-BULBING...FOLLOWED BY ONSHORE WINDS THAT
WOULD PUSH TEMPS BACK UP OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.

DUE TO THE PRECIP TYPE COMPLICATIONS...THE FORECAST WILL PROBABLY
NEED TO BE CHANGED AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER. BUT AT THIS POINT
...FOR THE CITY AND COASTAL SECTIONS IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW AT THE ONSET
AS WET-BULBING WOULD PROBABLY OFFSET ANY BOUNDARY LAYER WARMTH THAT
WOULD OTHERWISE SUPPORT RAINFALL. MIXED RAIN/SLEET/SNOW WOULD THEN
FOLLOW HEADING CLOSER TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN WOULD
THEN LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. FOR INLAND
SPOTS...PRIMARILY SNOW FOR A DECENT PORTION OF THE NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
A WINTRY MIX LATE. A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN PROBABLY OCCURS BY LATE
MORNING FOR MOST INLAND SPOTS. LIGHT SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WOULD
BE POSSIBLE...BUT PRIMARILY INLAND. WHATEVER LITTLE ACCUMULATION THE
CITY/COAST COULD MANAGE WOULD BE WASHED AWAY FAIRLY QUICKLY BY RAIN
AND WARMING TEMPS.

THE SYSTEM HEADS OUT TO SEA ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF
LINGERING PRECIP THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS MODELS HINT AT A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
AND KEEPING PRECIP CLOSE TO US. SHOULD THERE STILL BE PRECIP DURING
THIS PERIOD...IT WOULD LIKELY BE RAIN FOR THE CITY/COAST AND RAIN
CHANGING OVER TO A WINTRY MIX INLAND.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER...BUT WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
COLD FRONT INVOF KSWF TRACKS OFFSHORE THIS MRNG.

CIGS/VSBY NEAR ARPT MINS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SLOWED TIMING BY ABOUT
AN HOUR IN THE TAFS. IMPROVEMENT IS SLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH -RA.

CIGS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH VFR TODAY. MVFR OR EVEN LOWER COULD
LINGER THRU THE AFTN.

IFR TNGT WITH RAIN. GRADUAL MIXING WITH SLEET AND SNOW FROM NW TO SE
OVERNIGHT. ALL RAIN AT THE CITY TERMINALS THRU 6Z.

LGT SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH WINDS NW BEHIND.


...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: VSBY MAY DROP BLW 1/2SM BEFORE FROPA.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: VSBY MAY DROP BLW 1/2SM BEFORE FROPA.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: VSBY MAY DROP BLW 1/2SM BEFORE FROPA. TIMING
MAY BE AFT 10Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL VSBY DROP BLW 1/2SM BEFORE FROPA.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR EXACT TIMING OF THE
FRONT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: VSBY EXPECTED TO DROP AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. VSBY
MAY DROP BLW 1/2SM AT TIMES.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.LATE FRI NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH OCNL -RA MOST TERMINALS...ENDING AS
A WINTRY MIX FOR KSWF AND POSSIBLY KHPN AND SOUTHERN CT TERMINALS. N
WIND 10-15 KT.
.SAT...BECOMING VFR EARLY. NW WIND 10-20KT.
.SUN...VFR. LGT WIND.
.SUN NGT...MVFR. WINTRY MIX > RA COAST AND CT. SN > MIXED PCPN
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
.MON...IFR. RA. SE WND 15-25KT BECOMING SW IN AFTN.
.TUE...VFR. W WIND 15-25KT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
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DENSE FOG ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR ALL OF THE AREA WATERS THIS MORNING
WITH VISIBILITIES REMAINING 1 NM OR LESS. THE VSBYS WILL IMPROVE
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AFTER 8 OR 9 AM.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN BACK
TO THE NW ON SATURDAY.

OVERALL...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA...OR 25 KTS.
HOWEVER...RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...25 KTS MAY BE OBSERVED THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION...WINDS MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR A SHORT
TIME TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH.

OCEAN SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FEET. NOT TOO CONFIDENT THAT
SEAS CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 5 FT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. DUE TO THIS
UNCERTAINTY...WILL NOT EXTEND THE SCA ATTM. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED THOUGH.

SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE OCEAN
WATERS...OTHERWISE SUB-SCA PROBABLE ON SUNDAY FOR ALL WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH AN APPROACHING STORM SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO TOTAL AROUND AN
INCH...WITH MOSTLY RAIN EXPECTED. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

A STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING A LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNT
OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
DUE TO INTERFERENCE ISSUES WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD
EMERGENCY BROADCAST CHANNEL...THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS
WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IS WORKING WITH SEVERAL U.S. GOVERNMENT AGENCIES
TO ISOLATE AND RESOLVE THIS TECHNICAL PROBLEM.

DURING THIS TIME...THE TRANSMITTER MAY BE RETURNED TO SERVICE
INTERMITTENTLY FOR USE OF THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO
DURING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATIONS...FOR ROUTINE
WEEKLY TESTS OF THE WARNING SYSTEM...AND TO DETERMINE IF THE
INTERFERENCE ISSUE HAS BEEN RESOLVED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ067>071-
     075-078>081-177>179.
NJ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-
     103>105-107.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JC/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/PW
EQUIPMENT...