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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 121806
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
206 PM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS THEN MOVES INTO THE TRI-STATE AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CHANGED WITH THE UPDATE MAINLY FOR TEMPERATURES. BUMPED UP HIGHS
MAINLY OVER SE CT AS PER LATEST TRENDS. REST OF THE FORECAST
PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.

WITH THE STRONG H5 WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND WEAK
DISTURBANCES OUT IN FRONT OF IT...RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE AN
OUTLIER WITH HEAVIER PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE AREA...WITH THE
SURFACE LOW BEING SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE REST OF
GUIDANCE. AS NOTED BY WPC...THIS MAY BE RESULTING FROM A SLIGHTLY
LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION ALOFT...WITH A RESULTANT SURFACE
REFLECTION (BOTH PRESSURE AND PRECIP FIELDS) BEING FARTHER SOUTH.
AT THIS TIME THOUGH...SUCH AN OUTCOME DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY.
THEREFORE...IN ADDITION TO BACKING OFF POPS EARLIER IN THE
DAY...CONTINUED TO TREND QPF SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD AS WELL.

WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE S/SE IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST DEEPENS.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE INVERTED THERMAL PROFILE ABOVE THE
SURFACE...NOT EXPECTING GUSTS TO BE MUCH HIGHER THAN SUSTAINED WINDS
AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE SHORT
TERM. POPS INCREASE IN FRONT OF THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT...WHICH LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE CWA AROUND 03-06Z. BEFORE
THIS...RAIN SHOULD PICK UP IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH EVEN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER POSSIBLE. NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS...AS MUCAPE LOOKS TO BE QUITE MEAGER
ACROSS OUR AREA. ADDITIONALLY...MEDIOCRE LAPSE RATES NEAR THE SFC
AND LACK OF SBCAPE SUGGEST THAT ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME TRANSPORTING HIGHER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE GROUND.
STILL...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH
WITH ANY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION RIGHT BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

FOLLOWING FROPA...SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE W/NW WITH
TEMPS DROPPING QUICKLY INTO THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE AREA. WIND
CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO FIVE BELOW BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY...THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME WRAPAROUND
PRECIPITATION WITH THE LOW DEPARTING TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH STRONG
CAA...THERMAL PROFILES WILL RAPIDLY COOL BELOW FREEZING AT ALL
LEVELS...RESULTING IN A CHANGEOVER IN P-TYPE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...CONSIDERING THE QUICK PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM...CONTINUE
TO ANTICIPATE ONLY LIGHT PRECIP REMAINING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS UP TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS...WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR AMOUNTS UP TO 2
INCHES OR SO. ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS...ONLY A COATING TO A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH IS FORECAST.

CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW DIMINISH DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...BUT STRONG
CAA CONTINUES...WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH HIGHER THAN THE
LOWER 20S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND THE MID 20S ELSEWHERE.
ADDITIONALLY...WITH GOOD MIXING...NW WINDS WILL BE QUITE
STRONG...WITH GUSTS GENERALLY UP TO 40 MPH ACROSS MANY AREAS. SOME
COASTAL LOCATIONS COULD EVEN SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 45 MPH. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS WINDS WILL BE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA...PERHAPS
FALLING JUST BELOW. WINDS WILL THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH LATER IN THE
DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE CLEARING WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS...
AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY COLD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL APPROACH
RECORD LEVELS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. COUPLED WITH A BRISK NW
WINDS...WILL SEE WIND CHILLS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NEAR THE
COAST...AND 0 TO -5 ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

WEAK RIDGING TRANSITS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...KEEPING THINGS DRY.
HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE N/W OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND WITH CORE OF ENERGY PASSING
WELL TO THE N/W...HAVE LIMITED ANY POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THIS
TIME FRAME. THE LAST OF THESE SHORTWAVES BRINGS ANOTHER POLAR
COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. FOR NOW IT APPEARS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH THE REGION UNDER CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.

THE 00Z ECMWF AND CMC ARE STILL MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS
LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET...SENDING A
STRONG POLAR HIGH INTO THE EAST COAST BY MON AFT.

GIVEN THE OVERALL SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE OF THE CMC THIS WINTER...AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF IN THE EXTENDED...HAVE MAINTAINED A
CHANCE OF SNOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THE PCPN MAY START OFF MIXED WITH
RAIN TO START...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NYC AND LONG ISLAND.

ON TUESDAY WENT DRY...WITH WEAK RIDGING FORECAST OVER THE REGION.

FOR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THEN NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BELOW NORMAL
SUNDAY-TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM WESTERN PA TODAY...WHILE A
LEADING WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION JUST AHEAD
OF THE LOW TOWARD EVENING. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE DIRECTLY ACROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING...AND THEN PASS OFF THE EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST LATE TONIGHT.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT PORTIONS OF THE CT
COAST WHERE MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED. S-SE FLOW HAS
INCREASED...WHILE THE WARM FRONT HAS NOT YET MOVED THROUGH THE CT
COAST AND FLOW REMAINS FROM THE E-SE. OCCASIONAL GSTS TO 22KT ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH THINNER CLOUDS/MORE HEATING. IFR-
MVFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE PRIMARY
REDUCTIONS IN FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL OCCUR AS RAIN MOVES IN FROM W-E
AFTER 19-21Z. IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT RAIN WILL DIMINISH FOR A
FEW HOURS BEFORE A BRIEF LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM 00-03Z. FOG AND
GENERALLY IFR- MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY AFTER RAIN ENDS UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THEN A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CAN BE
EXPECTED.

LLWS IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS S-SW FLOW AT 2 KFT
AGL INCREASES TO 45-55KT.

FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT...NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25-35 KT
OR HIGHER WILL DEVELOP.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. TIMING OF RAIN MAY BE +/- ONE HOUR. LIGHT DRIZZLE
BRIEFLY POSSIBLE AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTS MAY BE
OCCASIONAL WITH RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ISOLATED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. TIMING OF RAIN MAY BE +/- ONE HOUR. LIGHT DRIZZLE
BRIEFLY POSSIBLE AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTS MAY BE
OCCASIONAL WITH RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ISOLATED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. TIMING OF RAIN MAY BE +/- ONE HOUR. LIGHT DRIZZLE
BRIEFLY POSSIBLE AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTS MAY BE
OCCASIONAL WITH RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ISOLATED.

HAZE ALOFT N-NE OF EWR DUE TO A FIRE IN NYC.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. TIMING OF RAIN MAY BE +/- ONE HOUR. LIGHT DRIZZLE
BRIEFLY POSSIBLE AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTS MAY BE
OCCASIONAL WITH RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ISOLATED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. TIMING OF RAIN MAY BE +/- ONE HOUR. LIGHT DRIZZLE
BRIEFLY POSSIBLE AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTS MAY BE
OCCASIONAL WITH RAIN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. TIMING OF RAIN MAY BE +/- ONE HOUR. LIGHT DRIZZLE
BRIEFLY POSSIBLE AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTS MAY BE
OCCASIONAL WITH RAIN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THU THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THU...MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS NEAR OR JUST RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC
20-30 KT WITH GUSTS G35-40KT.
.FRI...VFR.
.SAT...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
GALES ARE FORECAST ACROSS ALL WATERS TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING LOW MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS THIS
EVENING WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION TO
FOLLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. THERE WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF 20 TO 30 KT SUSTAINED WINDS ON THE WATERS....WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
KT. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE ACROSS THE OCEAN
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. WENT 2 FT ABOVE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IN THE
OFFSHORE FLOW ON THU WITH SEAS OF 7 TO 11 FT ON THE OCEAN.

AHEAD OF THE LOW TODAY...SOUTH WINDS RAMP UP TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE WATERS.

SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO FRIDAY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS. SW WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD MOVE INTO ALL WATERS BY SUN MORNING
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND DEVELOPING NW FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING.
QPF OF AROUND 1/3 OF AN INCH ALONG THE COAST TO 2/3 OF AN INCH INLAND
IS EXPECTED. ONLY MINOR TO MODERATE RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS.

THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OVER THE
AREA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS IT
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE
IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO IT IS
TOO EARLY TO SPECIFY EXACT AMOUNTS OR ANY POTENTIAL IMPACT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BE TIED OR BROKEN AT MOST LOCAL
CLIMATE SITES FRIDAY MORNING.

RECORD AND FORECAST LOW TEMPS FOR FRIDAY MORNING (MAR 14)...

               RECORD LOW
                MINIMUM     FCST
NEWARK.........17 IN 1980   16
BRIDGEPORT.....16 IN 1993   13
CENTRAL PARK... 8 IN 1896   19
LAGUARDIA......18 IN 1980   21
KENNEDY........19 IN 1980   17
ISLIP..........17 IN 1989   14

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER THAT SERVES THE NEW YORK CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO RADIO FREQUENCY
INTERFERENCE WITH THE U.S COAST GUARD TRANSMITTER.

FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FOLLOWING PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT (ALL LOWER CASE):
WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/OKX/PRODUCTS/STATIC.TXT

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PICCA/DW
NEAR TERM...JC/PICCA
SHORT TERM...PICCA
LONG TERM...MALOIT/DW
AVIATION...DI SPIGNA
MARINE...DW
HYDROLOGY...PICCA/DW
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...