Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 171125 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 725 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FORECAST IS ON TRACK. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY T/TD TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDS AND TRENDS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA RESULTS IN A SUNNY DAY TODAY. MAYBE JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AS SOME MOISTURE ADVECTS IN BELOW AN INVERSION NEAR 800-750 MB. WIND/THERMAL/MOISTURE PROFILES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR HIGH TEMPS. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES ON TODAY. THIS MAY INCREASE TO A HIGH RISK LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO SWELLS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD...SITUATED WELL OUT TO SEA. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...THE FLOW ALOFT AMPLIFIES WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT/TROUGH PASSES THROUGH AT THE SAME TIME. LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE WILL BE TOO LIMITED FOR ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS. 00Z GFS HAS EVEN BACKED OFF ON QPF OUTPUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES AS COMPARED TO ITS PREVIOUS FEW RUNS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST TONIGHT THRU THURS NIGHT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND...ALTHOUGH WEIGHTED MORE TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY. LOW TEMPS ACROSS SOME THE NW SUBURBS DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S THURSDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL H5 FLOW THROUGH THE LONG TERM...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES APPARENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM WILL START OFF OVER SRN CANADA...BUT AS A CUTOFF LOW TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA ON SAT...THE FLOW WILL AMPLIFY DOWNSTREAM RESULTING IN RIDGING OVER THE SW CANADA/PACNW AND A DIGGING TROUGH IN SE CANADA/THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN US THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRI MORNING WILL TRACK OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT AND SAT. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS TIME. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON SAT...SFC LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK THROUGH SE CANADA SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THIS FEATURES WARM FRONT WILL PASS BY TO THE N ON SUN...FOLLOWED BY ITS COLD FRONT SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THE BIGGEST CHANGE WITH THIS SINCE YESTERDAY IS THE DECREASE IN THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL FORECAST WITH IT. THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED POPS A TAD. A BIG DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE OPERATIONS GFS AND EC IS THAT THE 00Z EC HAS THE FRONT GETTING HUNG UP OVER THE AREA ON MON WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING ON IT. THE UPPER FLOW DOES BECOME PARALLEL TO THE FRONT IN BOTH MODELS AND THIS IS A POSSIBILITY BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE THIS SOLN FOR A FEW MODEL RUNS BEFORE COMMITTING. HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR TUE. TEMPERATURES WILL VARY OVER THE PERIOD...FRI...MON NIGHT...TUE AND TUE NIGHT ALL BELOW NORMAL WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KT ARE FORECAST THIS MORNING. SEA BREEZES WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE SOUTH AROUND 5 TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. THEN WINDS LIGHTEN ONCE AGAIN BY EVENING. PLEASE SEE INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL FORECAST FOR DETAILS. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT NORTH WIND SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH. TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT NORTH OR NORTHEAST WIND SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH. TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH. TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH. TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT NORTH WIND SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH. TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .THURSDAY-SUNDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE TODAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY EVENING WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT...BUT PROBABLY FALLING JUST SHORT OF IT. ASIDE FROM THIS...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TODAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO SWELLS FROM EDOUARD. WAVEWATCH IS RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET TOO HIGH...WITH THE NAH MODEL PERFORMING MUCH BETTER SO FAR. NAH BRIEFLY BUILDS SEAS UP TO 5 FT ON THE OCEAN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURS MORNING. SINCE IT IS A MARGINAL EVENT THAT WOULD APPEAR TO LAST FOR ONLY A SHORT TIME...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A SCA AT THIS TIME. A MODERATE NE FLOW FRI IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE MARGINAL SCA SEAS TO CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS FRI/FRI NIGHT. GUSTS WILL BE DIMINISHING FRI MORNING. SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .HYDROLOGY... NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/24 NEAR TERM...JC/24 SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...24 AVIATION...PW MARINE...JC/24 HYDROLOGY...JC/24

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