Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KOKX 221727
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
127 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016
Deepening low pressure off the coast of Maine will track north
through Maine and into eastern Canada today through Sunday.
A cold front will move southeast across the area early Monday
morning followed by Canadian high pressure through Wednesday. Low
pressure will move slowly east toward the area Thursday through
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Deepening low pressure was off the Maine coast with pressure rises
increasing across southern and western zones. Winds and gusts
have been increasing in response, with sustained winds nearing
wind advisory levels. Will not see best mixing with the light rain
and cloud cover inhibiting heating. Likely reach advisory levels
late this afternoon into this evening.
Wrap-around moisture was moving through with areas of light rain.
Main area of rain has lifted north of the Connecticut zones
quicker than forecast. And next area more scattered. So have
lowered probabilities back to likely with the rain ending this
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Any leftover showers tapper off from south to north tonight as
moisture and forcing lift northward with the low. Gusty west winds
up to 50 mph, strongest at the coast, will continue as the low
slowly lifts to the north. Wind advisory remains up overnight for
LI/NYC/SE CT. Winds during the day on Sunday will gusts up to 40
mph for most locations.
Upper trough lifts across eastern Canada on Sunday with a gradually
weakening surface low. High pressure builds east across the
Lows tonight will be near seasonable levels as gusty winds
inhibit strong radiational cooling.
Highs on Sunday rebound to near normal with highs in the mid 50s
to lower 60s.
Clipper low approaches Sunday night and sends a cold front
through the area by daybreak Monday. There is decent lift in the
85h-500h layer with a good chance of showers.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Monday through Wed will be quite cool as a building canadian high
pressure system moves east across New England, bringing overnight
low temps into the 30s across most of the local area, even across
parts of NYC on Tuesday night. Grab those jackets.
Thu-Fri will bring our next chance of rain as low lvl warm air
advection increases between the departing Canadian high and a low
approaching across the Great Lakes.
.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Low pressure moves into Northern New England and southeast Canada
through Sunday with high pressure building to the southwest.
WNW winds will continue to increase through the afternoon with
sustained winds becoming 20-25 kt. Gusts around 35 kt are
expected with an occasional gust reaching 40 kt possible late
this afternoon and early evening, especially near the coast. Gusty
WNW winds will continue tonight into Sunday. Strongest gusts may decrease
a bit after 04z to around 25 to 30 kt before increasing again
during the day Sunday with peak gusts up to 35 kt.
-SHRA continue this afternoon, ending this evening. Flight
categories will continue improving to VFR with KGON the last
terminal to see improvement late this afternoon.
.Outlook for 18Z Sunday through Thursday...
.Sunday...VFR. WNW winds G25-35 kt likely.
.Sunday night-Monday morning...Mainly VFR, NW winds G20-25 kt
possible early. Chance of showers after midnight.
.Monday afternoon-Tuesday...VFR, NW winds G20-25 kt.
-- End Changed Discussion --
Updated the winds and seas forecast through early this afternoon,
based on current conditions and track of low pressure off the
Maine coast, forecast to deepen and track north through today.
Westerly gales develop across all waters today as the low deepens
and tracks north.
Gales are forecast to continue through the day Sunday. Wind gusts
may briefly drop below 25 kt Sunday night before a cold front passes
early Monday morning. Wind gusts of 25-30kt are likely Monday
through Tuesday. Winds and seas are forecast to decrease on
Wednesday as high pressure moves across the area.
Additional rainfall today is expected to be in the range of a
quarter to half an inch with isolated higher amounts. The highest
amounts will be generally over the Husdon Valley and into interior
Sunday night...scattered showers with rainfall of less than one
tenth of an inch is forecast with the passage of a cold front.
Thursday through Friday...A widespread rainfall of 1/2 to 1 inch
is possible with the approach of low pressure from the Great
CT...Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for CTZ007-008-011-012.
NY...Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for NYZ072>075-078>081-
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ330-335-338-340-345-