Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 250836 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 436 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front over central New York and southern New England will drift south through the Tri-State Region today. An unsettled weather pattern continues Sunday into the middle of next week. Cold front to our south returns to the region Sunday night into Monday and moves offshore Monday night. Another frontal system approaches on Tuesday and moves across Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure returns Thursday ahead of the next front on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Temperatures are mild this morning amidst cloudy conditions and subtle warm advection in southerly flow. High temperatures will likely be achieved this morning or into the early afternoon before a cold front begins to move through the area from northeast to southwest. Initially very little precipitation is expected, but gradual saturation and increased forcing for ascent with an approaching upper low and the cold front will lead to the development of light rain by afternoon-evening. A second short wave will quickly follow for Tuesday, with the attendant surface trough moving through during the evening. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Warm/moist advection will continue above the surface in broad westerly then southwesterly flow, while cooler conditions at the surface behind the cold front will maintain a strong inversion over the area. Overall a favorable set up for patchy fog and continued cloudy conditions as well as light rain or drizzle through the weekend as an upper low slowly approaches the region. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Rain chances increase Sunday night into Monday as a short wave passes through the area, allowing a warm front to return northward. A second short wave quickly follows for Tuesday into Wednesday, with the attendant surface trough/cold front moving through Tuesday night. Temperatures Tuesday are expected to be above normal as southerly flow strengthens following the warm frontal passage. By Wednesday, flow returns to a west-northwest direction with subsidence, enhanced by downslope flow and clearing skies again leading to another potentially above normal temperature day. The unsettled pattern continues through the end of the week, with a degree of uncertainty for Thursday and Friday depending on the overall evolution of a series of upper waves emanating from the Pacific. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A cold front passes south of the terminals this morning. High pressure then builds down from the north into Saturday evening. VFR until 17Z-18Z, then MVFR conditions develop in light rain and fog. IFR conditions likely late this afternoon, with patchy LIFR conditions possible. S-SW winds less than 10 kt become light and variable 12Z-13Z as the front nears, then winds shift to NE with the cold front passage, 10 KT or less. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .Saturday night-Monday...IFR likely with LIFR or lower possible. Periods of rain, drizzle and fog. .Monday night-Tuesday night...MVFR or lower possible. .Wednesday...becoming VFR. NW winds G15-20kt possible in the afternoon. && .MARINE... A back door cold front was approaching from southern New England into southern upstate New York. The front is expected to move slowly across the waters this morning into this afternoon. A weak surface pressure gradient was keeping winds below small craft advisory levels. However, ocean seas east of Fire Island Inlet were running 4 to 6 feet with a component of a short period southerly swell. With the passage of the cold front an east to northeast flow develops and persists at least through the weekend as the cold front remains south of the waters. The long fetch easterly flow will allow for ocean seas to remain at minimal small craft levels into at least Sunday and possibly into the beginning of the week. There may be a brief period late this afternoon into this evening when ocean seas will be below small craft levels. With seas being the main hazard have converted to a small craft for hazardous seas, Sunday west of Fire Island Inlet, and today through Sunday east of Fire Island Inlet. From late Monday through Monday night, sub-sca conditions are forecast with an overall weak pressure gradient. Seas may build again to around 5 feet Tuesday as a cold front passes through the waters. Otherwise winds and seas should remain below SCA levels into Wednesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Rain chances gradually increase through Monday, with around a half inch to an inch accumulation overall. Unsettled conditions will continue through the week. With rain expected over a broad period of time, no hydrologic concerns are anticipated at this time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ355. Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MD/MET NEAR TERM...MD SHORT TERM...MD LONG TERM...MD AVIATION...MET MARINE...MET HYDROLOGY...MD is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.