Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 171824 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 124 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION BEFORE SLOWLY DEPARTING OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. THIS LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE CONTINUING ON A NORTHEAST TRACK. MEANWHILE A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE SHIFTS TOWARD US THIS AFTERNOON. COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES...BUT MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. FEWER CLOUDS SO FAR LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON THAT EARLIER ANTICIPATED...SO NEEDED TO BUMP UP HIGH TEMP FORECAST BY A FEW DEGREES. LOOKS LIKE MOST SPOTS END UP IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... ALOFT...CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED PVA MOVING THROUGH BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THIS LOW PIVOTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY FOR OUR REGION. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WELL TO THE WEST. FOR TONIGHT...MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES...AND PERHAPS FLURRIES ACROSS SOME OF THE NORTHERN ZONES AS MOISTURE COULD EXTEND JUST DEEP ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTALS TO FORM. WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN...GUSTY NW WINDS IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. MIXED LAYER DEEP ENOUGH FOR STRONGER GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...CLOSER TO NORMAL READINGS ARE FORECAST. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S NEAR THE COAST. ON THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S. MOS NUMBERS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE...BUT LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE WHERE APPROPRIATE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 FLOW ACROSS NOAM INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT START TO DIVERGE ON SUNDAY WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES APPARENT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE NEAR JAMES BAY IN SOUTHERN CANADA WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND WHILE WEAKENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FROM THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH SOME LIGHT PCPN EXPECTED. MAINLY SNOW INLAND AND RAIN AT THE COAST. GFS IS UP TO ITS OLD TRICKS OF DEPARTING THE RIDGE TOO QUICKLY...SO LEANED HEAVILY TOWARDS THE EC SOLN WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEN BACKED OFF A BIT WITH LOW PRES TRACKING UP THE COAST FROM THE SE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS UPPER FLOW IS PROBABLY TOO FLAT AND TAKING IT TOO FAR OUT TO SEA...BUT ALSO THINK THE 00Z EC IS TOO FAR W. SO HAVE COMPROMISED THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WITH A 60-40 12Z ECMWF/00Z GFS BLEND. THIS RESULTS IN LOW POP MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THEN...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GUIDANCE THAT A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRES WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND THEREFORE IMPACTS AS WELL. HOWEVER IT DOES LOOK LIKE MOSTLY A LIQUID EVENT AT THIS TIME. TEMPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THU. AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW...BKN MAINLY LOW-END VFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...EXCEPT FOR KSWF/KGON WHICH ARE STARTING OUT AT MVFR. THESE CIGS SHOULD THEN LIFT TO 050-060 THIS EVENING...REMAIN INTO THE NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS LATE...THEN SCATTER OUT AFTER ITS PASSAGE. COULD SEE AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TWO AS WELL LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY OUT EAST AT KGON/KBDR/KISP. W-NW WINDS LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT SHOULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASE TO NEAR 15-20G25-30KT ESPECIALLY AT THE NYC METROS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS. THESE WINDS SHOULD BACK MORE WESTERLY AND BRIEFLY DECREASE AGAIN BY ABOUT 10-11Z...THEN PICK UP BY 14Z-15Z. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: BKN035 CIGS COULD TAKE LONGER TO LIFT TO BKN050 THIS EVENING. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: BKN035 CIGS COULD TAKE LONGER TO LIFT TO BKN050 THIS EVENING. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: BKN035 CIGS COULD TAKE LONGER TO LIFT TO BKN050 THIS EVENING. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: BKN035 CIGS COULD TAKE LONGER TO LIFT TO BKN050 THIS EVENING. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: BKN035 CIGS COULD TAKE LONGER TO LIFT TO BKN050 THIS EVENING. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE BEFORE 20Z. BKN035 CIGS COULD ALSO TAKE LONGER TO LIFT TO BKN050 THIS EVENING. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THU THROUGH SAT... .THU AFTERNOON/NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS 13-18G20-25KT...DIMINISHING TO 10-15G15-20KT BY EVENING. .FRI-SAT...VFR. .SAT NIGHT...VFR TO START...THEN MVFR OR LOWER CONDS WITH LIGHT PRECIP...RAIN AT MOST TERMINALS...SNOW AT KSWF...AND RAIN OR SNOW KHPN. .SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS...WITH LIGHT PRECIP CHANGING TO RAIN THROUGHOUT. .MON...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.
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&& .MARINE... WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE WATERS. THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL WATERS BY LATE IN THE DAY. THESE INCREASINGLY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE WINDS SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 35 KT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE OCEAN ZONES. CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING...OR FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT...IS QUITE LOW...SO WILL NOT CONSIDER GALE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. SEAS BUILD TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE. WAVE WATCH III OUTPUT LOOKED REASONABLE...AND WAS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. SCA CONDS MAY LINGER ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO THU NIGHT. SUB-ADVY CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT. && .HYDROLOGY... MAINLY DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335- 338-340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353- 355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...24/PW NEAR TERM...JC/PW SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...24 AVIATION...GOODMAN MARINE...24/PW HYDROLOGY...24/PW

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