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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 250015
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
715 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL TRACK UP
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG LOW PRESSURE THEN APPROACHES MONDAY AND
PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
CONTINUING NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAKER SYSTEM
THEN PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
***BRIEF SNOW BAND LI/CT EARLY...THEN BLACK ICE DEVELOPING
 TONIGHT***

BACK EDGE OF SNOW WILL BE EXITING THE FORKS REGION AND NEW LONDON
COUNTY OVER THE NEXT HOUR. WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION...HAVE LET ALL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES EXPIRE.

BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS OF 00Z ARE MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S AND WILL
BE FALLING THROUGH THIS EVENING. TEMPS EVENTUALLY FALL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 20S INLAND...AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S CITY/COAST.
AS SUCH...A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF BLACK ICE ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY...WITH WEAKENING POLAR FRONT APPROACHING SUNDAY MORNING.
FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS DRY...WITH JUST SOME SCT STRATO-CU.

BREEZY AND MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS SUNDAY TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

UPPER TROUGH SLIDES EAST SUN NIGHT WITH POLAR HIGH SLIDING INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS FIRST
HALF OF SUNDAY EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
TEENS INTERIOR AND PINE BARRENS AND LOWER 20S NYC METRO. COULD GET
INTO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS IF CLOUDS HOLD OFF
LONG ENOUGH.

THEREAFTER...ALL EYES ON STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUN AND INTO THE SE US SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE LOW
PRESSURE BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE SE US...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS AT LEAST SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE TRENDING FARTHER NW REGARDING A STORM THAT IS PROGGED TO
EMERGE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DURING MONDAY. AS THE STORM HEADS TO
THE NORTH...AN ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH BECOMES STRONGLY NEGATIVELY
TILTED BEFORE A 500 MB LOW CLOSES SOUTH OF US AT SOME POINT LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WOULD DRAW THE STORM CLOSER TOWARDS
IT...EFFECTIVELY SLOWING DOWN ITS PROGRESS TO THE NE IN SPITE OF A
BLOCKING LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MOVING AWAY.

HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR AT
LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WITH THE UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF
AND DEEPENING OF THE STORM...MESOSCALE BANDING BECOMES MORE LIKELY
AS WELL...BUT IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO SAY THIS FAR OUT IN ADVANCE
WHERE IT WOULD SET UP. BUT BASED THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND
DEFORMATION THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING...BANDED PCPN WOULD MOVE AT
LEAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA...PERHAPS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. PCPN TYPE LOOKS LIKE TO BE ALL SNOW. RIGHT NOW ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT WARM AIR GETS WRAPPED INTO THIS SYSTEM AND
CAUSES MIXED PCPN TYPES FOR EASTERN SECTIONS. SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE
THE NW TREND OF THE STORM`S TRACK...PCPN TYPE ISSUES COULD BE A
BIGGER CONCERN. WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT A COLD AIR MASS WILL
ALREADY BE IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING THROUGH SE CANADA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PROMOTING PCPN TYPE OF SNOW.

DID NOT WANT TO TREND UPWARD TOO MUCH REGARDING POPS AND TOO HIGH
WITH QPF/SNOW TOTALS AT THIS POINT AS LIKELY POPS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY FORECAST UNTIL THE 5TH PERIOD...BUT WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO
RFC AND WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE FROM THE
HIGH QPF OUTPUT FROM ECMWF AND NAM...AND THE OTHER MODELS THAT DO
NOT SHOW AS MUCH. BUT BASED ON THE NW TREND OF THE STORM...DID
MAKE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY WEST OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND
AND SE CT. FORECAST WINDS DURING THIS STORM COULD BE ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE AS WELL...BUT FOR NOW...THINKING IS THAT EASTERN
AND OTHER COASTAL SECTIONS HAVE A DECENT CHANCE OF SEEING GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH. TOO EARLY FOR ANY HEADLINES REGARDING THE SNOW AND
WIND POTENTIAL...BUT WILL ADDRESS AT LEAST THE SNOW ASPECT IN THE
HWO AS WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL FOR AT LEAST SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA
IS INCREASING IN LIKELIHOOD.

BEHIND THE STORM...DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN A
WEAKER LOW AFFECTS US THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CAPPED POPS A
CHANCE FOR SNOW...WITH PCPN MORE LIKELY TO BE SNOW...BUT MIXED PCPN
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
** HIGH IMPACT SNOW AND WIND EVENT POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...SEE OUTLOOK FOR DETAILS **

LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN CANADIAN MARITIME
PROVINCES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...EXCEPTIONS ARE AT KGON WHERE MVFR TO
BRIEF IFR IN RASN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 2Z...AND AT KSWF
WHERE MVFR FOG SHOULD LAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WINDS ARE MAINLY WNW AROUND 10-15KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT
THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW INLAND LOCATIONS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
WINDS BACK TO THE W OVERNIGHT AT 5-10KT THROUGHOUT. WNW WINDS
G15-20KT BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN VEER
TO THE NW AND THE GUSTS ABATE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY EVENING...VFR.
.LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. MVFR POSSIBLE IN -SN. E-NE
WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN
SNOW...HIGHEST PROBABILITIES AT EASTERN TERMINALS. POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY SNOW WITH NE-N WINDS G35-45 KT.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G25-35KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR.


&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST WATERS THROUGH
SUN AFT...WITH HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. MARGINAL GALE GUSTS STILL LIKELY ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS
BETWEEN MORICHES INLET AND MONTAUK POINT THIS EVENING. SEAS 7 TO
10 FT ONT HE OCEAN WATERS.

NLY WINDS BECOME NW TONIGHT AND THEN WEST ON SUN AS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NE INTO FROM JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THIS EVE TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUN. WINDS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL
BELOW SCA SUN AFT INTO EVE...AND SEAS SUN NIGHT.

WINDS INCREASE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A STRONG STORM FORECAST
TO PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL PROBABLY NEED A GALE WATCH...AND
BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. WILL ADDRESS GALE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. WINDS AND SEAS
THEN DIMINISH WEDS AND THURS AS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA
AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CURRENT FORECAST HAS ANYWHERE FROM AS LITTLE AS AROUND A TENTH OF
AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION TO A LITTLE OVER AN
INCH IN ASSOCIATION WITH STORM AFFECTING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. PRECIP TYPE HOWEVER DOES APPEAR TO BE MOSTLY ALL
SNOW...REDUCING ADVERSE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS DURING THE STORM. THERE
IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THESE AMOUNTS.

ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR FLUCTUATIONS
IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A POTENTIAL INTENSE COASTAL STORM COULD BRING MINOR TO LOCALLY
MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JC/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...