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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 261441
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
941 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH THEN SLIDES
OFFSHORE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT INTO TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE LOW PASSES WELL TO THE SE TODAY WHILE A SHORTWAVE ALOFT
SHIFTS THROUGH INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. BEST ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL BE
TO THE SOUTH. LOW LEVELS HAVING TROUBLE MOISTENING UP AS EVIDENCED
BY RADAR AND SURFACE OBS. HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW FOR THE
PAST FEW RUNS THAT MOST OF WHAT REACHES THE SURFACE REMAINS
OFFSHORE. HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM SLIGHT CHC NW TO CHC SE.

WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH TODAY. BLENDED
MAV/MET AND 12Z ECS STATISTICAL MOS OVER HI RES NMM BACKGROUND.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. THIS REMAIN
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NE TO SW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MAKES SLOW PROGRESS EAST...WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRANSLATE TO LEFTOVER CLOUDS TONIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY AS THIS FEATURE SLOWLY PROGRESSES EAST.

AT THE SURFACE...PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
FLURRY OR TWO DUE TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING.

TEMPS REMAIN COLD THROUGH FRIDAY. BLENDED MOS ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO THE
TEENS ELSEWHERE. ON FRIDAY...TEMPS RISE TO THE MIDDLE 20S. STILL
QUITE COLD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THEN MOVING OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACH LATE SUNDAY AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD MAINLY SEE ALL
SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY A WINTRY MIX ALONG THE COAST. FOR
SIMPLICITY...KEEPING PRECIPITATION ALL SNOW FOR NOW. IF
PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
ZONES...THEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD WARM ENOUGH TO CHANGE THINGS
TO PLAIN RAIN BEFORE ENDING.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING OVER THE REGION.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH RESPECT TO
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE LOCATION OF ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. WILL CONTINUE...FOR SIMPLICITY PURPOSES...NOT TO
ADDRESS THE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES FALL
BACK BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. REMOVED TEMPO FOR -SN FROM ALL BUT
KISP AND KJFK...AND RAISED THOSE TO VFR. IF CURRENT TRENDS
HOLD...COULD REMOVE THOSE IN FUTURE TAFS. CEILINGS GENERALLY 5-9
THOUSAND FEET THROUGH TAF PERIOD.

N-NE WINDS 8-13 KT DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VARYING FROM 010-040 TRUE
(020-050 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW CHANCE MVFR CEILINGS INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VARYING FROM 020-050 TRUE
(030-060 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. VERY LOW CHANCE MVFR CEILINGS
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. VERY LOW CHANCE MVFR CEILINGS INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. VERY LOW CHANCE MVFR CEILINGS INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. VERY LOW CHANCE MVFR CEILINGS INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW CHANCE MVFR CEILINGS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.FRIDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CHANCE MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED
WITH RAIN SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING WILL
PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS TODAY. ISSUED A SCA EARLIER
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER PORTION OF THE ZONES WELL
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...WILL COME CLOSE TO 25 KT. IN
ADDITION...SEAS PER WAVE WATCH BUILD TO 5 FEET FOR THE OFFSHORE
BUOYS. BORDERLINE...BUT SCA ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OFF
NJ AND NEW ENGLAND...SO WILL FOLLOW FOR CONTINUITY. LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY IS EXPECTED DUE TO COLD WATER...COLD AIR TEMPS...ROUGH SEAS
AND 15 KT WINDS.

BY TONIGHT...THE LOW PASSES WELL TO THE EAST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE...BUT LIGHTEN. DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIND SPEEDS CLOSE TO SCA
CRITERIA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS TO
OCEAN SEAS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS SUBSIDE TONIGHT...BUT BUILD CLOSE
TO 5 FEET YET AGAIN TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO E/SE SWELL. NOT TOO
SURE ABOUT THIS...SO NO PLANS AT THIS TIME TO EXTEND THE SCA. IF
ANYTHING...A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THE WATERS SURROUNDING LONG ISLAND...WINDS REMAIN BELOW 25
KT...AND SEAS REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL. SPEAKING OF SEAS...MANY OF
THE BAYS REMAIN FROZEN...AND THAT IS NOT GOING TO CHANGE ANYTIME
SOON.

SCA LEVEL SEAS COULD LINGER ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST OF
MORICHES INLET FRIDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

INCREASING SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD SEAS TO SCA LEVELS ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON ALL WATERS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE LIQUID
EQUIVALENT TO FALL FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PW/BC
NEAR TERM...JC/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MALOIT/DS
MARINE...PW/BC
HYDROLOGY...PW/BC