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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 190527
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
127 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will retreat to the north tonight as tropical
cyclone Jose moves up the coast. The area will then be impacted by
Jose into the day on Wednesday. Weak high pressure builds over the
area Thursday through early next week as Jose weakens and slowly
tracks to the southeast. Please refer to National Hurricane Center
products for more details on Jose.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Showers well offshore are forecast to start moving in late
tonight but models are showing some initial weakening of these
as they move onshore.

Tropical cyclone Jose approaches from the south today. As the
pressure gradient increases between Jose and the departing high,
winds will gradually increase through the night, primarily
across eastern Long Island and far southeastern Connecticut.
With plenty of cloud cover, overnight lows will only fall into
the mid 60s, about 5-10 degrees above normal for this time of
year.

With long period swells allowing surf to build, dangerous beach
conditions will continue this evening. A high risk of rip currents
and high surf advisory remain in effect for Atlantic beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Tropical cyclone Jose remains the focus of the forecast through
Wednesday. Models and the official NHC forecast continue to track
Jose north and east along the Mid Atlantic coast, eventually passing
near the 40N/70W benchmark by Wednesday morning. With the wind field
not expected to expand as far west much as previously forecast,
Nassau, southern Westchester, and southern Fairfield counties have
been removed from the Tropical Storm Watch. Please continue to
monitor NHC forecasts for official track information.

In terms of sensible weather, northeasterly winds continue to
increase through the day on Tuesday, with the highest winds and
strongest gusts expected across eastern Long Island and southeastern
Connecticut Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. At the same time,
rain will overspread the area beginning during the day on Tuesday
and continuing through the night before tapering off Wednesday
afternoon. Several high resolution models are depicting the initial
outer rain bands of Jose rotating through the area around daybreak
Tuesday morning before the focus of the most persistent rainfall
shifts to the eastern portion of the region closer to the center of
the storm. It is important to note that tropical storm force winds
and associated impacts extend well beyond the center of the storm.
In addition to the winds and rain, dangerous conditions will persist
along the coast, where minor to moderate coastal flooding will be
possible. High surf and high risk of rip currents will be seen
along the Atlantic Ocean beaches. See the hydrology and coastal
flooding sections below for more information.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
On the large scale, a very persistent pattern remains with a very
large upper level ridge aloft across the Eastern US. The upper level
jet remains well within the interior parts of Southeast Canada.
Hence, the airmass remains mild and tropical in nature. At the
surface, not much movement essentially in terms of high and low
pressure centers, with Jose exhibiting eventual post tropical
characteristics late this week into the weekend while slowing down
in movement. It is forecast to meander in the Atlantic waters
southeast of the region.

In terms of weather, showers are forecast to taper off Wednesday
evening with mainly dry conditions thereafter through the weekend.
Winds will be on a downward trend as the pressure gradient weakens
Wednesday night into Thursday and then remains nearly the same going
through the weekend. A persistent northerly flow is expected. Highs
are forecast be mainly in the upper 70s to lower 80s and lows low to
mid 60s are forecast most nights with lows a little lower Thursday
night and Friday night with a range more in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Rough surf with locally higher waves will be likely at the beaches
during Wednesday night through Friday evening, when the ocean seas
are forecast to range 7-10 ft. This will be mainly east of Fire
Island Inlet due to continuous long period swell.

There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast of Jose late this week
into this weekend. Subsequent forecast could very well have changes.
Stay tuned for official track and intensity forecasts regarding Jose
from the National Hurricane Center.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains centered over the Canadian Maritimes tngt.
Jose will gradually track closer to the area but remain offshore
Tue.

The official track of Jose is farther eastward than previous
advisories. As such, ceilings farther west across NYC terminals,
KSWF and KHPN may be higher than forecast, with higher wind
gusts possible as well.

Otherwise, mainly IFR to MVFR overnight with periods of rain
beginning early Tuesday morning.

NE flow generally around 10 kt will steadily increase overnight.
Strengthening nely winds will continue Tue.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.Tuesday Night...MVFR or lower with periods of rain. Increasing
ne winds with speeds depending on the exact track of Jose.
.Wednesday...MVFR or lower improves to VFR. Nly winds with
speeds depending on the exact track of Jose.
.Thursday-Friday...VFR. Gusty N winds around 20 kt east of city
terminals.
.Saturday...VFR. NE winds around 10-15 kt.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
As Jose lifts north through the Western Atlantic tonight into
Tuesday, seas on the ocean waters will continue to increase,
building to 10 to 15 ft by Tuesday afternoon, and 12 to 18 ft
by Tuesday night. Seas near the entrance to the LI Sound from
the ocean will also become rough and could approach the 7 to 10 ft
range by Tuesday night.

A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the New York Harbor and
the western Long Island Sound beginning Tuesday morning as sustained
winds increase to 20-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt.

Higher ocean seas at least of 5 ft are forecast Wednesday night
through Saturday. Highest waves are forecast Wednesday night through
Friday with 7-10 ft on the ocean. Wind gusts exceed SCA criteria
with values near 25kt mainly on the ocean waters from Moriches to
Montauk out 20nm while late Thursday night into Friday could have
25kt gusts spread farther west into ocean waters south of Fire
Island Inlet and Eastern Long Island Sound and Eastern Long Island
Bays.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic impacts are expected through tonight.
Thereafter, rainfall amounts from Jose are expected to range from
0.75 inches in and around NYC to around 3 inches across far eastern
Long Island. This could result in minor urban and poor drainage
flooding, especially in any heavier rain bands. Rainfall will
decrease significantly north and west of New York City. Please
continue to monitor NHC and WPC forecasts for official information
about Jose via: http:/hurricanes.gov and http:/www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

No hydrologic problems are anticipated through the weekend with the
current rainfall forecast.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Rising water levels combined with incoming energetic swells
from Jose, will bring increasingly dangerous surf of
potentially 10-15 ft Tuesday and continuing into Wed. This will
cause widespread dune erosion (waves hitting base of dunes), and
localized washovers (wave overtopping dunes) into middle of
next week.

With increasing confidence in track of Jose to the se of Long
Island, have leaned towards a blend of the higher end and mean
of Stevens and P-ETSS guidance envelope for surge forecasts.
This points to potential for 1 1/2 to 2 1/2 ft of surge during
the late Tue into Wed high tides, which would result in
widespread minor to moderate coastal flooding.

These surge values could result in 2 to locally 3 ft inundation
in our most vulnerable locations along the southern bays of
LI/NYC and Peconic/Gardiners Bay, with generally 1 to locally 2
ft across other vulnerable coastal areas. Wave action on top of
elevated waters levels will exacerbate impacts along the
beachfront.

As confidence increases in storm details over the next 24
hours, we will be able to refine these surge value and and
potential coastal flood hazards/impacts further.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Tropical Storm Watch for CTZ007-008-010>012.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM this morning to noon EDT
     today for CTZ009.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT
     Wednesday for CTZ009-010.
NY...Tropical Storm Watch for NYZ078>081.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon EDT
     Wednesday for NYZ074.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM this morning to noon EDT
     today for NYZ071-177.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT
     Wednesday for NYZ071-177.
     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon EDT
     Wednesday for NYZ075-178-179.
     High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NYZ075-178-179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM this morning to noon EDT
     today for NYZ075-178-179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon EDT
     Wednesday for NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...Tropical Storm Watch for ANZ330-340-345-350-353-355.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ335-338.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FEB/JM
NEAR TERM...FEB/JM
SHORT TERM...FEB
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JMC/MD
MARINE...FEB/JM
HYDROLOGY...FEB/JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...