Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KOKX 191914 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 314 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK...AND THEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... SOUND BREEZE CONVERGENCE SEEN ON KOKX AND BETTER YET ON TJFK WITH STRATO CU RESULTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS DISSIPATE QUICKLY THROUGH SUNSET AND THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. THEN IT`S SKC AND LIGHT WINDS SETTING THE STAGE FOR PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IN THE MORE LIKELY AREAS OF INLAND VALLEYS AND THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND. VSBY IN THESE AREAS COULD BE RATHER LOW (< 1/4 MI) AT SUNRISE. TEMP SENSOR AT KLDJ (LINDEN) HAS BEEN REPORTED FOR FAA MAINTENANCE (TOO WARM). && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTHEAST - AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE APPROACH (THE SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT). BASED ON 09Z SREF AND 12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS...KEEPING IT DRY EXCEPT FOR ORANGE COUNTY AFT MIDNIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WE`LL HAVE TOMORROW...BUT AM THINKING CIRRUS WOULD BE THIN - THUS MOSTLY SUNNY. BLENDED MOS USED FOR TEMPS WITH LITTLE SPREAD SEEN. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... DEEP UPPER TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE NORTHEAST AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...POSSIBLY TOUCHING OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN ZONES. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES THEN MOVES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND MEANDERS THERE THIS WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. DRY CONDS ON TAP FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY WED MORNING...WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. SE-S SEA BREEZE 5-10 KT AT KJFK/KISP/KGON IS PUSHING INTO KLGA ATTM...AND WINDS AT KBDR ARE FINALLY BEGINNING TO VEER SE AS WELL. NE SOUND BREEZE FRONT IS RETREATING NORTHWARD AT KISP...SO WINDS THERE SHOULD STAY SE THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SE-S FLOW THIS EVENING SHOULD GO LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND THEN EASTERLY AGAIN BY WED MORNING. WITH MARITIME AIR MASS IN PLACE RIGHT ALONG THE COAST...THINK KISP COULD SEE MVFR VSBY LATE. KGON SHOULD ALSO DO ITS TYPICAL LATE NIGHT FLIP-FLOPPING BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR VSBY. EXPECT REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF SE-S SEA BREEZES AT COASTAL TERMINALS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE NOW THAT OCEAN SEA BREEZE HAS ARRIVED. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE NOW THAT NE SOUND BREEZE FRONT IS RETREATING. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WED THROUGH SAT... .WED AFTERNOON-THU NIGHT...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NYC METRO AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS. .FRI-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. && .MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS. A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FT THIS WEEKEND. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DRY CONDS ON TAP THIS WEEKEND. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TONGUE NEAR TERM...TONGUE SHORT TERM...JMC/TONGUE LONG TERM...MPS AVIATION...GOODMAN MARINE...MPS/TONGUE HYDROLOGY...TONGUE/MPS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.