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051
FXUS61 KOKX 021849
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
249 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front sinks southeast of the area and washes out
tonight. A Canadian cold front approaches Thursday afternoon,
crossing the area Thursday evening. High pressure builds in
behind the front Thursday night into Friday Night, then
offshore for the remainder of the weekend. A cold front
approaches from the Great Lakes Sunday into Monday, passing
slowly across the area Tuesday or even stalling in close
proximity.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A weak shortwave trough slides east this evening, with weakening
surface cold front sliding east.

An isolated shower/tsra possible along seabreeze boundary
across NYC/NJ metro this aft/eve with moisture pooling and
convective temps being met. Otherwise, clearing from NW to SE
late this afternoon into tonight.

A slightly drier airmass advects in behind the front tonight with
lows tonight in the low 70s to mid 60s. Patchy radiational fog
potential across outlying areas.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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Key Points:

* Scattered severe thunderstorm potential( primary threat of
  damaging winds) Thu aft/eve
* Dry, seasonably warm, and comfortable Tds for July 4th

A vigorous polar upper low track dives se thru western Quebec
Thursday/Thursday Night into northern New England Friday, with its
associated 1 std deep shortwave trough approaching the area Thursday
evening.

Deep mixing, sunny skies, and light offshore flow should allow for
temperatures to quickly warm in the morning into early afternoon
well into the 80s to around 90 for much of the area, away from
immediate south coasts with afternoon seabreeze development and far
NW areas. A slightly drier airmass will have heat indices near temps
as Tds likely mix out into into the lower to mid 60s. The very warm
airmass will set-up a marginal to locally moderately unstable
airmass across the area.

Thu aft/eve, a resultant cold front approaches from the W NY/PA.
Strong shortwave forcing and RRQ of 70 kt ulj should be a suitable
trigger in a marginal to moderately unstable airmass with fairly
strong unidirectional deep layer shear (35-40kt) for scattered
convection development along pre-frontal trough and off higher
terrain across Central NY/PA in the early to mid afternoon, as
depicted in high res CAMs. A couple of CAMS indicating isolated
storm development across far NW hills by early afternoon along
outflow of decaying Western NY morning convection, but
cape/shear/mid- level lapse rate environment appears less
favorable for this to survive into the coastal plain until the
late afternoon/evening approach of the trough.

Environment looks increasingly favorable for cold pool development
and storm organization Thu aft/eve (alignment of moderately strong
WNW steering flow and shear vectors, mid level dry air and
steepening mid-level lapse rates (6.5C), and steep low-level lapse
rates) for isolated to scattered bowing line segments with primarily
a strong to severe winds gust threat into areas from NYC and N&W in
the late afternoon. 12z CAMs have trended a bit more robust
with convective development for Thu aft/eve compared to 12 to 24
hrs ago. Steepening mid-level lapse rates late in the aft/eve
could also bring an isolated large hail threat with any stronger
discrete cells. Flash flooding threat is very low with likely
linear and progressive storm motion.

Convective intensity should lessen somewhat as the activity
progresses east over the coast in the early evening, but with
strong forcing, increasing deep layer shear and an environment
favorable for cold pool development, an isolated severe threat
for damaging wind gusts is possible all the way down to the
coast.

Improving conditions in wake of cold frontal passage Thu
evening with clearing conditions, and advection of a
cooler/drier Canadian airmass. Lows falling into the 60s for
much of the regions.

Shortwave axis slides east on Friday with deep NW flow (gusty NW
surface wind), bringing mostly sunny skies, seasonable warm temps
(lower 80s interior to mid 80s coastal plain), and comfortable Tds
(mid 50s to around 60) Friday. Temps falling back into 70s for
Friday evening with clear skies, allowing for ideal conditions for
July 4th celebrations.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Key Points:

* Gradual warmup Saturday through Monday
* A weak cold front moves into the area on Tuesday with a chance of
  showers and thunderstorms

High pressure both aloft and at the surface will build across the
area Friday night into Saturday, then build offshore for the
remainder of the weekend into early next week. This will result in a
pleasant start with near normal temperatures and relatively low
humidity. However, with an approaching upper trough trough over the
Great Lakes Sunday into early next week, vertical temperatures
profiles will be on the upswing with 85h temps near 18C by Monday.
In addition, a prolonged period of southerly flow will result in
gradually increase humidity during this time.

A weak cold front associated with the aforementioned upper trough
approaches late Monday into Tuesday with increasing chances of
showers and thunderstorms. Environment is weakly sheared, but
moderately unstable ahead of the front. There is some uncertainty as
to when the front pushes through, or if it simply washes out in
close proximity Tuesday into Wednesday. This is reflected in some
increasing spread for temperatures between the 25th and 75th
percentiles. Once again, the NBM deterministic temperatures are
generally at ir below the 25th percentile during the forecast
period.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front over the area this afternoon will wash out tonight.
Another cold front will approach Thursday afternoon.

Possible MVFR cigs right at the start of the period at the NYC
metros, then potential for a stray shower or tstm until around
01Z as the front interacts with a developing sea breeze.

For tonight, most terminals should be VFR, but LIFR cigs are
likely overnight at KGON and may also impact KISP/KJFK.

Winds at most of the NYC metros will be light/variable to start,
then become light SW-S, while KJFK continues with a S flow
around 10 kt. Other coastal terminals will see SW sea breezes 10
kt or less. A light SSE sea breeze should make it in to
KEWR/KTEB after 22Z. Light SW winds tonight become W-NW
overnight, then resume at SW 5-10 kt after 14Z-15Z Thu.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

A stray shower or tstm possible until around 00Z-01Z. Low cigs
may make it to KJFK late tonight.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Late Thursday afternoon and Thursday night: Showers and
thunderstorms with gusty winds and brief MVFR or lower cond
possible into early evening, otherwise VFR. SW winds G15-20kt
outside of tstms.

Friday: VFR. NW winds G15-18kt.

Saturday through Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
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Sub-SCA conditions are expected on all waters under a weak pressure
gradient through Friday night. Tstms may pose a hazard of strong
winds, lightning, heavy rain, and locally rough seas Thu
aft/eve.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected this weekend into early next week.
Southerly flow on the ocean waters Sunday into Monday will feature
G15-20kt with seas generally around 3 ft, possibly as 4 ft late
Monday.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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No widespread hydrologic impacts anticipated through early next
week.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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A high risk of rip currents continues into this evening due to a
southerly swell of 4-5 ft 7s, combined with 1 ft easterly swell.
This will produce waves in the surf zone of 3-5 ft.

The residual S swell will subside to around 3 ft heading into
Thursday with the rip risk expected to lower to moderate.

A borderline low to moderate rip risk is likely for July 4th,
as southerly swells subside to 2ft@7s with background 1 ft east
swell.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NV/DW
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...NV/DW
HYDROLOGY...NV/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...