Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 260302 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1102 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak low pressure troughs will form over land Monday and move offshore Monday night. A cold front crosses the region Tuesday afternoon with high pressure building to the south of the region for Wednesday. A warm front crosses the region late Thursday followed by warm, humid and unsettled weather on Friday though the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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The fcst is on track with no major changes made. Latest satellite imagery shows upper low just north of Lake Ontario with another shortwave that has kicked off more scattered showers from BGM down to Central PA. Extrapolation of this suggests arrival is not until just after midnight. The latest HRRR suggest new activity feeding off the mid level instability and latest GOES-16 visible data support at least some of this with moderate CU seen over Eastern PA. Sounding shows all instability is below the -20 C level - so only expecting showers. Have gone with a 20 to 30 POP for now. Overnight lows fall into the 50s and 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Another weak surface trough develops over the area Monday. Aloft, heights fall to the west of the area as next shortwave moves across the Great Lakes region. Plenty of sunshine Monday morning, gives way to a some afternoon clouds especially north and west of NYC. A few isolated showers will again be possible across the interior. Dry conditions are expected Monday night. Temperatures on Monday will climb into the 70s and lower 80s. Monday night, lows fall into the 50s and 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Looks fairly dry with comfortable humidity and slightly below normal temperatures through mid week. A warm front approaches on Thursday as low pressure passes across southern Canada. In its wake, a cold front sags south into NY State on Friday. The front becomes stationary near the region into the weekend - which appears will be "unsettled." Upper trough axis approaches Tuesday, passing Tuesday night. Perhaps a tad more instability Tuesday and trof/pseudo cold FROPA triggers a showers and perhaps a TS (instability is limited with dry mid levels). Wednesday is dry and then warm advection starts in on Thursday. Frontal boundary in the region, or just north, on Friday and have POPs in for TSRA. Looks to remain unsettled through the holiday weekend at this time. LI`s as low as -5 C with long narrow CAPE`s and PWAT`s over 2 inches in a unidirectional flow supports potential for Flash Flooding - mainly in urban areas. Temps come back to near seasonable on Thursday and then go above Friday into the weekend. No heat issues foreseen though. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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High pressure will remain s of the region thru the taf period. SW winds become light WNW overnight, and SW close to 10 kt by Mon afternoon, with coastal sea breeze development by 15Z-16Z. An isold shra is possible thru 6Z. Outside of any shwrs, vfr thru the taf period. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .Monday night...Mainly VFR. Coastal sea breezes. Slight chance of an eve shower/tstm NW of NYC metros. .Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Chance of a late day shower/tstm. .Wednesday...VFR. .Thursday...Mainly VFR. Chance of a late day shower/tstm mainly north of the NYC metros and Long Island. .Friday...Mainly VFR. Chance of a late day shower/tstm at KSWF.
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&& .MARINE... Winds and seas will remain below small craft levels through Monday night. Ocean seas will likely build to SCA criteria late Thursday and continue as such into Friday. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts expected through Thursday. There is potential for localized flash flooding associated with summer convection Friday through the weekend - mainly in urban areas. River flooding is not anticipated. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Astronomical tides are running high, especially during the nighttime high tide cycles. Main area to watch would be across the Nassau south shore bays, where water levels should briefly touch or barely exceed minor thresholds this evening. The times of high tide are from 9-11pm. && .EQUIPMENT... Observations from KFRG (Farmingdale, NY) are not available. Observations from KHPN (White Plains NY) and KHVN (New Haven CT) are being disseminated through backup methods. All is due to an FAA communication line outage. Return to service time is unknown. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/Tongue NEAR TERM...BC/JMC/Tongue SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...Tongue AVIATION...JMC/Goodman MARINE...BC/Tongue HYDROLOGY...BC/Tongue TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... EQUIPMENT...

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