Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 210251 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1051 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND EXTENDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON MONDAY...AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... CLOUDS BEGINNING TO BUILD NORTH OVER LONG ISLAND AND QUEENS THIS EVENING. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE BUILDING NORTH OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO FOLLOW THIS TREND. ADJUSTED POP OVERNIGHT AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER TREND IN ISO/SCT SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA AND A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS. STILL FCST SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MAINLY IN/NEAR NYC METRO LATE TONIGHT. PATCHY DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE WITH DRY MID LEVELS AND MOIST LOW LEVELS. INSTABILITY INCREASES ALOFT LATE BUT MOSTLY AFTER DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT HAVE MOVED EAST.. SO NO MENTION OF THUNDER ATTM. LOWS TONIGHT ARE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN WAA TAKING PLACE...WITH NEAR 70 AT LGA...MID AND UPPER 60S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND AROUND 60 WELL INLAND AND OVER THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... SCT SHOWERS SHOULD BE AROUND MAINLY IN THE AM...WITH ISOLD THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE OVER ERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT...AS A WEAK NON- TROPICAL LOW PASSES JUST TO THE SE OF LONG ISLAND. HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH THIS LOW SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH WAA ON ITS EASTERN FLANK AND WELL OFFSHORE...SO DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL ATTM. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING BY AFTERNOON VIA SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...WHICH ALONG WITH WAA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER 80S IN MANY PLACES EXCEPT ERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT WHERE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART...AND IN THE HIGHER INTERIOR ELEVATIONS. PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THE COLD FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW CHANCE POP NW OF NYC AND SLIGHT CHANCE POP ELSEWHERE. AFTER FROPA EXPECT SOME CLEARING LATE AT NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY 55-60 INLAND...AND 60-65 IN NYC METRO AND ALONG THE COAST. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT LIKELY JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY. AS OF NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST TO START MONDAY WITH THE FRONT EAST OF THE REGION AND DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY WIND AIDING IN DRYING THE LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER...IF THE FRONT SLOWS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT INTO THE TWIN FORKS EARLY MONDAY. A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE A COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILD IN MONDAY AND THEN REMAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...THEN A WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A WEAK COASTAL LOW MOVES TO EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT PASSES SUN NGT. MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TNGT. HAVE RESTRICTED IFR TO EASTERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHERE APPEARS BEST CHANCE OF -SHRA AND/OR DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL BUT GON BY AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY. A FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT SUN NGT...BUT MAINLY VFR EXPECTED ATTM. SE-ESE WINDS UNDER 10 KT TONIGHT...WITH INLAND TERMINALS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SE FLOW CONTINUES SUN MRNG...THEN VEER TO THE SW IN THE AFTN. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT SUN NGT. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. SCT -SHRA POSSIBLE. .MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE...BECOMING N MONDAY NIGHT. .TUESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... SEAS WERE REMAINING IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE AND THE WIND OVER THE WATERS HAS DIMINISHED FOR NOW. WITH THE APPROACH OF A COASTAL LOW THE WIND WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. NOT CONFIDENT THAT SEAS WILL BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT OVERNIGHT AND HOLDING OFF ON AN ADVISORY. BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDS SUNDAY NIGHT AS SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSING TO THE SE ARRIVE. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST WATERS EARLY MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY MORNING...AND SOME GUSTS DURING MONDAY ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH 25 KT AT TIMES. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WIND...GUSTS...AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE FALLEN BELOW SMALL CRAFT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN OVER THE WATERS INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH WIND AND SEAS BELOW && .HYDROLOGY... LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PASSES OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN DRY MON THROUGH SAT. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MET NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS/MET SHORT TERM...GOODMAN LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...JMC/MALOIT MARINE...GOODMAN/MET HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MET

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