Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 041808 CCA AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 208 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...PUSHING OFFSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... TSTMS FIRING N OF THE CWA WHERE THERE IS SOME UPR SUPPORT. ACROSS THE CWA...SUBSIDENCE LIMITING INITIATION. LAPS AT 17Z HAS ABOUT 3000 J/KG SBCAPE ON LI...WITH ABOUT 1500-2000 ELSEWHERE. CIN IS SMALL TO NONE. CU FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND ON STLT. OUTSIDE THE OFFICE...NOT MUCH VERTICAL EXTENT YET. ANY FOCUS IN THIS MDT-HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT COULD ALLOW ISOLD CELLS TO BLOSSOM. WITH 40-50KT 0-6KM SHEAR...SVR POTENTIAL WITH ANY TSTMS. AS A RESULT...MAINTAINED ISOLD TSTMS IN THE FCST THRU EARLY THIS EVE. BY THE TIME THERE IS A LITTLE MID LVL LIFT TNGT...THE AREA IS MAINLY STABLE AND CAPPED. EXCEPTION IS EXTREME ERN LI PER THE NAM WHERE THE CHC FOR ISOLD TSTM DEVELOPMENT LINGERS LATER INTO THE EVE. TEMPS THRU THE AFTN ON TRACK...WITH KEWR TO HIT 90 FOR THE 8TH DAY IN A ROW. FOR TNGT...A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WAS USED...BUT LIMITED THE RADIATIONAL COOLING SIGNATURE ACROSS THE PINE BARRENS OF LI WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY. HIGH RISK FOR RIPS CONTINUES TODAY WITH MANY REPORTS OF DANGEROUS RIPS. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... UPR JET DIVES INTO THE AREA BY AFTN. DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY...THE NAM IS PICKING UP ON SCT-ISOLD CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY EVE. THE GFS IS DRY. LAPSE RATES ARE SLIGHTLY STEEPER IN THE NAM...WITH AROUND 8C BETWEEN H85-H7. THE GFS IS AROUND 7C IN THE SAME LAYER. WITH THE APPROACHING COLD POOL ALOFT...JET AND WARM SST/S...DID NOT DISCOUNT THE NAM AND HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED 20 POPS FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY. ISOLD LIGHTNING STRIKES TODAY INVOF LAKES HURON AND ONTARIO LEND SOME SUPPORT TO TSTMS CHCS. TEMPS A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WHICH WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY/ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THIS ENERGY WILL BE KEY TO THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE LATEST 00Z MODELS OFFER SLIGHTLY MORE CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE LOW PRESSURE IMPACTING THE AREA SOMETIME ON FRIDAY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE DETAILS ARE STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...BUT A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE 00Z GFS IS THE FLATEST AND SLOWEST AS IT DOES NOT REALLY DEVELOP THE LOW UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY AMPLIFIES BEHIND THE MAIN ONE. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE STRONGEST WITH THIS ENERGY AND DEVELOPS THE LOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY AND MOVES IT JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE 00Z GEFS ARE A BIT FASTER...WITH THE MEAN LOW TRACK AND TIMING SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ON FRIDAY...AND HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT. POPS THEN DECREASE TO CHANCE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. AS TIMING BECOMES CLEARER...EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF POPS. THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING ON SUNDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 70S. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. VFR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CHANCE OF ISOLATED TSTMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS...MAINLY EAST OF NYC THROUGH SUNSET. SEA BREEZES WILL INCREASE SW WINDS TO ARND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT UNTIL SUNSET ACROSS ATLANTIC COASTAL TERMINALS INCLUDING KJFK. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFT SUNSET THEN SHIFT FROM THE W ARND 10 KT ON WED. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ISOLATED TSTMS UNTIL SUNSET. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ISOLATED TSTMS UNTIL SUNSET. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ISOLATED TSTMS UNTIL SUNSET. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ISOLATED TSTMS UNTIL SUNSET. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ISOLATED TSTMS UNTIL SUNSET. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ISOLATED TSTMS UNTIL SUNSET. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WED THROUGH SUN... .WED AFTN-THU...VFR. GENERALLY W FLOW. .FRI...CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. WINDS BECOMING NE. .SAT...CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN. NE WINDS. .SUN...VFR. && .MARINE... SEAS STILL IN THE 5-6FT RANGE THIS AFTN ON THE OCEAN. HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA ON THE OCEAN THRU TNGT BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND 12Z WAVEWATCH. ELSEWHERE...GUSTS INTO THE LWR 20S EXPECTED THRU THIS EVE. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO BLW SCA LVLS ALL WATERS WED AND WED NGT. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER THE WATERS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS ON THURSDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT ON SATURDAY ON THE OCEAN. && .HYDROLOGY... ORGANIZED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN WHERE AND WHEN THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL. ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD LIMIT FLOODING POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL THAT DO DEVELOPS WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. && .EQUIPMENT... TEWR TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR REMAINS UNAVAILABLE. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075- 080-081-178-179. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353- 355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/DS NEAR TERM...JMC SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...GC MARINE...JMC/DS HYDROLOGY...JMC/DS EQUIPMENT...

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