Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 261551 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1151 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains in control through Monday. A slow moving cold Front approaches Monday night and slowly moves through Tuesday and Wednesday. Weak high pressure then builds Thursday and Friday before giving way to another cold front sometime next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Under mostly full sun, with high thin cirrus over the region, temperatures have risen faster than forecast. Updated hourly temperatures for the trends. Also, onshore flow has developed more quickly with the high centered east of Long Island, south of Cape Cod, and a weak pressure gradient force. Raised dew points a couple of degrees along the coastal areas. Upper level ridge builds across the northeast ahead of a trough that will traverse across the northern midwest states/southern Canada. Surface high pressure builds offshore, resulting in southerly flow. Under plenty of sunshine, expect temps to rise into the 80s, with the usual disparity from coastal south facing shorelines, and interior locations. There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at Atlantic ocean beaches due to 2 to 3 ft ESE swells. Southerly winds will also be increasing through the afternoon, especially across the ocean beaches in NYC and Nassau county. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Upper ridge will give way to approaching SW-NE oriented trough that moves across the Great Lakes region tonight and Monday. A cold front/trough approaches late Monday. Very weak lift along with limited moisture will result in very low coverage for showers and thunderstorms, mainly for western zones. Otherwise, mostly clear tonight and partly to mostly sunny skies expected monday. Patchy fog is possible tonight with yet another day of onshore flow. Temps will remain around normal. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Slow progression to upstream shortwave energy that moves across the Great Lakes region toward the northeast. Perhaps best lift occurs Tuesday night into Wednesday, with GFS a quicker outlier. Analysis of various models/model blends show highest probabilities for measurable Tuesday night into Wednesday, with high chance or likely coverage. Weak high pressure follows for Thursday and Friday. Looks like only A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm for far western portions Friday afternoon with the approach of a pre-frontal trough. Instability diminishes Friday night, so it will likely be dry. A cold front then moves closer on Saturday with showers and storms possible. Temperatures through the long term period will be fairly close to Normal. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR as high pressure over the area moves east. Medium to high confidence forecast with respect to winds today, though may have to make minor unscheduled amendments to sea breeze onset and wind speeds as observations dictate. KEWR/KTEB could see some variability between SW to WNW late this morning at lighter speeds until a SSE sea breeze close to 10 kt comes in toward 17Z- 18Z. Cannot rule out an occasional gust closer to 20 kt at the NYC metros and KISP mid to late afternoon as the sea breeze peaks, also a brief higher of sustained winds than forecast at KLGA as stronger southerly sea breeze arrives around 21Z-22Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .Monday...VFR. S winds 10-15 kt. .Monday Night-Wednesday...MVFR or lower conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms, especially Tuesday into Tuesday night. .Wednesday night-Thursday...VFR. && .MARINE... Winds and seas forecast on track, no changes at this time. High pressure remains over the forecast waters today and tonight. Winds and seas will remain below small craft advisory levels during this period. There may be some patchy fog early this morning over the ocean waters east of Fire Island inlet. Visibilities are expected to remain above 3 NM. Sub-sca conditions are expected on the area waters for the new Week. Thunderstorms may pose local hazards tuesday through Wednesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Dry conditions through at least Monday. A slow moving cold front will pass through the region Monday Night through Wednesday. In general, up to 1/2 inch basin average QPF is possible, but locally higher amounts are possible in thunderstorms, especially where there is training of thunderstorms. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PW NEAR TERM...MET SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...JC/PW AVIATION...Goodman MARINE...MET/PW HYDROLOGY...PW is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.