Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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248 FXUS61 KOKX 250746 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 346 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds over the area today and into Wednesday before moving offshore Wednesday night. A warm front lifts through the area late Thursday, followed by low pressure and a cold front Friday. High pressure builds across the area this weekend before a surface low passes to the south early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Clouds will linger across the area today as a low pressure passes to the south and east of Long Island. Otherwise, expect comfortable conditions with high temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s as high pressure builds over the area. There remains a high risk of rip currents at ocean beaches through today.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
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High pressure will provide another unseasonably cool night with clearing skies. Low temperatures overnight will be in the mid to upper 50s inland and low 60s along the coast. High pressure will remain in control on Wednesday before pushing offshore Wednesday night. High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 70s.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Upper level shortwave that is expected to dive out of central Canada, the Great Lakes region, then across the area Friday into Saturday, will need to be watched as global models differ on strength of this feature. Across eastern Canada, cutoff low develops this weekend, with lingering trough extending across the northeast states. As the weekend progresses, this low moves northeast. At the surface, high pressure to the east gives way to a weak warm front late Thursday. Sfc low pressure tracks across the Ohio Valley Thursday, then toward the mid Atlantic coast early Friday. Due to differences aloft in the models, placement of sfc low, and strength of the low differs somewhat. At this time, it appears that consensus would place the low just to our south, along a cold frontal boundary Friday. This low moves east by Saturday, as high pressure builds from the west/northwest. This high should remain in control Saturday through Monday. As for sensible weather, shower chances increase late Thursday, with the best chance for showers, possible thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday. Still uncertainty with this system, but there is the potential for significant rainfall. Thereafter, dry conditions prevail. Do not foresee large temperatures differences/swings, with near normal readings anticipated.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Weak low pressure will pass to the south today along a stationary front. High pressure will begin to build in from the north tonight into Tuesday. Expect mainly MVFR cigs through 18Z. There is a chance that KEWR/KTEB could see a brief period where cigs just barely dip into the IFR range some time after 09Z, but more likely 11Z- 13Z. Improvement should start to work in from the east thereafter, with all terminals VFR by 22Z. Winds should be ENE to NE 10 kt or less. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .Late tonight and Wednesday...VFR. .Thursday through Friday night...MVFR or lower conds possible, with a chance of showers and tstms, as low pressure passes by. Medium confidence on timing mainly from late Thu night into Fri morning, but low confidence on exact placement, which could be more south of the terminals. Worst case would be a high impact event for the AM push. .Saturday...VFR. && .MARINE...
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Small craft conditions expected across ocean water through this evening, primarily for seas. High pressure builds across the area waters on Wednesday. High pressure departs Wednesday night, giving way to a warm front Thursday, then low pressure and associated cold front Thursday night through Friday. The low and cold front pass east Friday night as high pressure builds. Through the late week period, sub SCA conditions are generally expected. The only exception could be late Thursday night into Friday. Much depends on eventual strength of the low as it moves across the waters. Seas should remain 5 ft or less Wednesday night through Saturday, but the late Thursday night through Friday time frame needs to be monitored as the storm impacts the local waters.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic impacts expected across the area through Wednesday. Additional rainfall is possible Thursday night through Friday. There is a low chance for urban and poor drainage flooding.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Tides continue to run astronomically high, especially the high tide cycle at night. Across the south shore bays of Nassau and Queens, less than a foot departure is needed to reach minor coastal flooding thresholds. Departures should run around 1 foot above. As such, a coastal flood advisory has been issued for the south shore back bays of Nassau and Queens for tonight`s high tide cycle.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NYZ075-080-081- 178-179. Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to midnight EDT tonight for NYZ178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350- 353-355.
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