Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KOKX 261551
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1151 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016
High pressure remains in control through Monday. A slow moving
cold Front approaches Monday night and slowly moves through
Tuesday and Wednesday. Weak high pressure then builds Thursday
and Friday before giving way to another cold front sometime next
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Under mostly full sun, with high thin cirrus over the region,
temperatures have risen faster than forecast. Updated hourly
temperatures for the trends. Also, onshore flow has developed more
quickly with the high centered east of Long Island, south of Cape
Cod, and a weak pressure gradient force. Raised dew points a
couple of degrees along the coastal areas.
Upper level ridge builds across the northeast ahead of a trough
that will traverse across the northern midwest states/southern
Surface high pressure builds offshore, resulting in southerly flow.
Under plenty of sunshine, expect temps to rise into the 80s, with
the usual disparity from coastal south facing shorelines, and
There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
Atlantic ocean beaches due to 2 to 3 ft ESE swells. Southerly
winds will also be increasing through the afternoon, especially
across the ocean beaches in NYC and Nassau county.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Upper ridge will give way to approaching SW-NE oriented trough
that moves across the Great Lakes region tonight and Monday.
A cold front/trough approaches late Monday. Very weak lift along
with limited moisture will result in very low coverage for
showers and thunderstorms, mainly for western zones. Otherwise,
mostly clear tonight and partly to mostly sunny skies expected
Patchy fog is possible tonight with yet another day of onshore
Temps will remain around normal.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Slow progression to upstream shortwave energy that moves across the
Great Lakes region toward the northeast. Perhaps best lift occurs
Tuesday night into Wednesday, with GFS a quicker outlier.
Analysis of various models/model blends show highest
probabilities for measurable Tuesday night into Wednesday, with
high chance or likely coverage.
Weak high pressure follows for Thursday and Friday. Looks like
only A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm for far western
portions Friday afternoon with the approach of a pre-frontal
trough. Instability diminishes Friday night, so it will likely be
dry. A cold front then moves closer on Saturday with showers and
Temperatures through the long term period will be fairly close to
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR as high pressure over the area moves east.
Medium to high confidence forecast with respect to winds today,
though may have to make minor unscheduled amendments to sea
breeze onset and wind speeds as observations dictate. KEWR/KTEB
could see some variability between SW to WNW late this morning at
lighter speeds until a SSE sea breeze close to 10 kt comes in
toward 17Z- 18Z. Cannot rule out an occasional gust closer to 20
kt at the NYC metros and KISP mid to late afternoon as the sea
breeze peaks, also a brief higher of sustained winds than forecast
at KLGA as stronger southerly sea breeze arrives around 21Z-22Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Monday...VFR. S winds 10-15 kt.
.Monday Night-Wednesday...MVFR or lower conditions possible in
showers and thunderstorms, especially Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Winds and seas forecast on track, no changes at this time.
High pressure remains over the forecast waters today and tonight.
Winds and seas will remain below small craft advisory levels
during this period. There may be some patchy fog early this
morning over the ocean waters east of Fire Island inlet.
Visibilities are expected to remain above 3 NM.
Sub-sca conditions are expected on the area waters for the new
Week. Thunderstorms may pose local hazards tuesday through
Dry conditions through at least Monday.
A slow moving cold front will pass through the region Monday
Night through Wednesday. In general, up to 1/2 inch basin average
QPF is possible, but locally higher amounts are possible in
thunderstorms, especially where there is training of