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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 190237
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1037 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT HAS PASSED SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SATURDAY...STALLING OVER OR NEAR THE
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA HAS ALLOWED THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH
JUST SOUTH OF THE LI. THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN IS PUSHING ACROSS
EASTERN LI AND SRN CT...WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT FROM WEST
TO EAST...AS WINDS STRENGTHEN AND BECOME NORTHERLY.

A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE BASED ON CURRENT TEMPS. THIS
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. GUIDANCE WAS
VERY CLOSE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AND SEE NO REASON TO GO AGAINST
IT AT THIS TIME. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR
TO LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES FILTERS
INTO THE REGION. EXPECTING DEW POINTS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 70S. MAY SEE SEA BREEZES DEVELOP AT THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE
OBSERVED SO FORECASTING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND MIDDLE 50S ACROSS LONG ISLAND. FOR NEW YORK
CITY...LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN
DURING THE LONG TERM SIGNIFYING A MEAN TROUGH GRADUALLY GIVING
WAY TO RISING HEIGHTS.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC ON THU
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC INTO SAT WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. MODELS ARE
HINTING AT ISOLD CONVECTION FRI AFTN/EARLY EVE...BUT AM HAVING A
HARD TIME FINDING A TRIGGER AND SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A MID
LEVEL CAP SO HAVE REMOVED SCHC POPS. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE N ON SAT...ALTHOUGH EC HAS A MORE DEFINED
SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND IS THEREFORE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE
GFS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL NEAR OR OVER THE LOCAL AREA
SAT NIGHT INTO TUE. THE POTENTIAL FOR MCS/MCC`S EXIST IF THE THE
OPERATIONAL EC SOLN IS REALIZED AS WE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN JET.

AS FOR TEMPS...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING
RESULTING IN MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
RAIN CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS COLD FRONT WORKS
ITS WAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW IN ITS
WAKE...MVFR TO IFR CONDS IN STRATUS/BR CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. CIGS
WILL DROP AS LOW AS 600 FT AWAY FROM KNYC TERMINALS...WHILE 800 FT
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR COASTAL LOCATIONS. MOST AREAS WILL DROP TO
1500 FT OR SO. VFR RETURNS BETWEEN 10-12Z...THEN VFR ON TAP FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

N/NE WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT BY 10Z...AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
TO AROUND 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT FROM AROUND 10Z
TO 15Z. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 03Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
AS LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE DELMARVA COAST MOVES OFFSHORE LATE
TONIGHT...NLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...SO MAY SEE
WINDS ON THE OCEAN GUST UP TO 20 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SEAS
WILL REMAIN UNDER SCA CRITERIA. WINDS AND SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE REMAINDER OF NIGHT AND
CONFINED MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN LI AND SE CT,

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/DS
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...24/DS/NV
HYDROLOGY...24/DS