Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 011501 CCA AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1100 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE TO END THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A WELL DEFINED COUNTERCLOCKWISE CIRCULATION SHOWS UP ON RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CT...WHICH APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH MESOVORT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. IN FACT...DUAL POL PRECIP ACCUM SHOWS OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF MIDDLESEX COUNTY IN CT. THIS AREA OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE SLOW TO MOVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...PRIMARILY IMPACTING NEW HAVEN AND NW MIDDLESEX COUNTIES. THE RAIN SHIELD MAY ACTUALLY DROP SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN LI THIS AFT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED HIGHS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE RAIN...CLOUD COVER...AND NE FLOW. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SHOWERS IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH THE MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WILL OCCUR OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT...CORRESPONDING TO THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST FORCING/VORT MAX BY THIS AFTN/EVENING. SO FOR POPS...AM KEEPING LIKELY/DEFINITE WORDING IN FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF NYC METRO...WITH CHC TO THE WEST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... PCPN CONTINUES THIS EVENING...WITH THE MAIN QUESTION ON THE ENDING TIME. UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS EAST...WITH THE MAIN FORCING GENERALLY RESIDING OVER EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA FOR THE NIGHT. AS SUCH...BEGAN TO TAPER POPS BACK FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EVEN POSSIBLE BY 06Z WEST OF NYC. CONFIDENCE RESTS WITH THE PCPN CONTINUING THOUGH OVER EASTERN LI/SE CT. HOWEVER...WITH THE BULLS EYE OF MAIN FORCING MAINLY OFFSHORE...SIDING MORE WITH PCPN BEING ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. 00Z NAM AND ECMWF DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS OVER THE FAR EASTERN REACHES OF THE CWA...BUT WILL WANT TO SEE THE TREND FOR THE DAY BEFORE SIDING WITH THE HEAVIER AMTS. LIGHT PCPN LINGERS JUST OFFSHORE THEN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY EXITS THE REGION...BEING REPLACED WITH RIDGING ALOFT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH FRI EVENING. THE CFP AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL ARE STILL LINED UP FOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS TIMING. POP HAS BEEN INCREASED TO CAT FOR SAT...AND LIKELY POP ALSO CONTINUES INTO EARLY SAT EVENING ACROSS SRN CT AND LONG ISLAND. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS ALL OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST. THEN RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RETURN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING...MAINLY MON INTO MON NIGHT. FOR HIGHS...BOTH FRI/SAT SHOULD SEE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...THEN A COOLER DAY ON SUNDAY WITH ONLY LOWER/MID 60S. SLIGHT MODERATION EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH...MAINLY 65-70. LOWS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT DO NOT LOOK TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST CONCERNS. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION TODAY AS A VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL NE FLOW PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. THIS RESULTS IN IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS FOR LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PERSISTENT NNE SFC FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN OCCASIONAL GUST INTO THE UPPER TEENS FOR THE NY METRO EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS DUE TO THE INFREQUENT NATURE EXPECTED. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST THOUGH DIRECTION MAY SWING 20 DEGREES RIGHT OF 040 MAGNETIC AT TIMES. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCE OF BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCE OF BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UN-FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG CATEGORY EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .THU...MVFR CIGS IN THE AM...THEN VFR. NE WINDS 10-15 KT. .FRI...VFR. LGT SE WND. .SAT...RAIN - MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES. SE WIND 10-15G20 KT. .SUN...VFR. && .MARINE... SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH INCREASING NE FLOW. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTN...WHILE SEAS GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FT ARE EXPECTED. ON THE NON OCEAN WATERS...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TODAY. COULD SEE OCNL GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS IN THE BAYS AROUND LONG ISLAND AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME MORE PERSISTENT TONIGHT. AS SUCH...A SCA MIGHT NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR THESE WATERS TONIGHT/THURSDAY. THE REMAINING WATERS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE OCEAN WATERS UNTIL THURS EVENING...WHILE THE SCA CONTINUES FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS JUST THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR THU NIGHT AND BEYOND...HAZARDOUS OCEAN SEAS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE FROM THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...THEY SHOULD FALL BLW 5 FT LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...AND ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP THRU THE WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE...THE ERN SOUND/BAYS COULD SEE SCA CONDS IN POST-FRONTAL W FLOW ON SUNDAY. SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE ALL WATERS AGAIN ON MON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYS. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH. AREAS TO THE WEST WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. QPF OF 3/4 TO 1 INCH LIKELY NW OF NYC ON SAT WITH COLD FRONT...AND 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH FARTHER EAST. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/SEARS NEAR TERM...SEARS/DW SHORT TERM...SEARS LONG TERM...GOODMAN AVIATION...BC/TONGUE MARINE...GOODMAN/SEARS HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/SEARS/DW

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