Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 310449 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1249 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure moves offshore tonight. A cold front approaches on Wednesday, then crosses the area from Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A large high pressure system then builds into the region through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Forecast is on track, only minor changes made to reflect current conditions. With zonal flow aloft, dry conditions will continue through the overnight period. Light winds will allow temperatures to fall into the lower 60s across outlying areas, and to near 70 in the New York City metro area. A high risk of rip currents will continue tonight at the Atlantic beaches.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... As the surface high continues to move offshore, a shortwave trough will approach the area from the west during the day on Wednesday. This will result in increasing clouds and a chance for showers and thunderstorms north and west of New York City by Wednesday evening. The front then slowly moves across the area Wednesday night and into the day on Thursday. A chance of showers and thunderstorms continues through much of the day on Thursday as the upper level trough crosses the region. There is a high risk of rip currents at Atlantic Ocean beaches on Thursday due to continued long period se swells from Gaston. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Have just a slight chance PoP Thu evening as the upper trough passes east. Then a large high pressure system should build in at least through Saturday, with slightly above average temps continuing. While the forecast continues in this vein through Monday, certainty decreases beginning this weekend, and ultimately depends upon the future track and intensity of Tropical Depression 9 (now located over the Gulf of Mexico) and its interaction with an upper trough to its west as it continues on the NHC forecast track and intensity, across Florida on Thursday and then off the Southeast coast on Saturday as a tropical storm. There are indications that the system could track closer to the western edge of the NHC 5-day forecast cone. At any rate, rip currents and eventually high surf could be problems through the Labor Day weekend, first from distant Hurricane Gaston, then from TD9 (or its named equivalent) during the Labor Day holiday weekend. Beachgoers should be aware of these potential risks. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure will drift eastward over the Atlantic through Wednesday. A weak cold front approaches Wednesday night. A combination of sea breeze and return flow around the exiting high pressure system can be expected on Wednesday. Patchy IFR stratus development likely overnight/early Wed morning...with low potential for widespread IFR cigs. Any IFR cigs should improve to VFR through the morning and continue through the afternoon. Low prob of isolated tsra at KSWF Wed Eve. .Outlook for 00Z Thursday through Sunday... .Wednesday Night...Chance of rain showers...low prob of isolated tsra. Low chance of MVFR or lower conds. .Thursday...Showers possible with a cold frontal passage. Light winds with variable direction due to localized effects, becoming northwest late. .Friday...VFR with northwest winds. .Saturday and Sunday...Low probability for deep low pressure over the Atlantic to impact the area. Otherwise, VFR. && .MARINE... A relaxed pressure gradient over the waters around Long Island will keep winds to 10 kt or less through Thursday. A persistent SE swell from distant Hurricane Gaston will keep seas around 4 ft over the coastal ocean waters through Wednesday night and 3 to 4 ft on Thursday, with rough conditions likely at area inlets. These seas are below SCA thresholds, so the small craft advisory for hazardous seas has been cancelled. Lingering long period swells of 2-3 ft from Gaston should continue into Friday night, which along with offshore flow up to 15 kt should result in combined seas 3-4 ft Thu night into Friday. Forecast certainty decreases thereafter, and will depend on the future track and intensity of TD9 as it moves from the Gulf of Mexico into the Atlantic from Friday into the weekend. Forecast does not include any direct wind impacts, but does include ocean swell building to over SCA criteria this weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... No significant widespread precipitation is expected, and moderate to severe drought conditions continue. Around a quarter of an inch of rainfall is possible Wednesday night into Thursday. Dry weather expected Thursday night into the beginning of next week. Moderate to severe drought conditions continue. The next local drought statement updated is scheduled for September 1st. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NYZ075-080-081- 178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...FEB/Goodman/Maloit NEAR TERM...FEB/Maloit/JP SHORT TERM...FEB/Maloit LONG TERM...Goodman AVIATION...NV MARINE...FEB/Goodman/Maloit HYDROLOGY...FEB/Goodman/Maloit

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