Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 251124 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 724 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE HIGH THEN MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS LATE WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY AS THE UPR RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. DRY WX WITH A LACK OF LLVL MOISTURE AND THE RESULTANT INSTABILITY...BUT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD PRODUCE BKN-OVC SKIES AT TIMES. DEEP SLY FLOW PER TIME HEIGHTS AND SOUNDINGS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MIXING TO AROUND H85. WENT WITH THIS THEN BLENDED IN THE NAMDNG TO BRING DOWN THE TEMPS AT THE COAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. THERE IS A MDT RISK FOR RIPS ON THE OCEANFRONT TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... DRY TNGT WITH SW FLOW CONTINUING. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE AT THE COASTS...THE WIND SHOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE SREF HAS LOW PROBS FOR EVEN VSBY BLW 3SM...SO AS A RESULT HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY FOG IN THE FCST ATTM. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION THRU THE PERIOD. THE GFS SUGGESTS SOME CONVECTIVE INITIATION TUE AFTN ACROSS THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA. HIGHER INSTABILITY WITH SOME INCREASED LLVL MOISTURE...HOWEVER THE SEA BREEZE FLOW SHOULD ARC NWD THRU MOST OF THE AREA STABILIZING THE AREA BY LATE AFTN. THE NAM APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD DEPICTION OF THIS SHARP CAPE GRADIENT. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE A LACK OF A TRIGGER WITH GENERAL WEAK SUBSIDENCE. MAINTAINED THE LOW TSTM CHCS IN THE FCST FOR THE WRN AND INTERIOR AREAS...BUT IF FUTURE MESOSCALE MODEL DATA FOLLOWS THE NAM...POPS ACROSS ALL AREAS E OF THE HUDSON COULD BE TRIMMED OFF. EXPECTING THE INCREASED MOISTURE AFTER THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW TO LIMIT TEMPS A BIT MORE AT THE CT AND LI COASTS...SO USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMED TO DEPICT THIS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... SUMMERTIME PATTERN IN PLACE THIS TIME FRAME. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK TROUGH/SHORTWAVE AS IT TRAVERSES EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. IN TIME...RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF LATE IN THE WEEK AS JET RETREATS NORTHWARD. THE JET EVENTUALLY SAGS SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS CANADA...RESULTING IN LOWERING HEIGHTS AND MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE WITH PERSISTENT SW FLOW ACROSS THE EAST COAST. A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO APPROACH LATE SATURDAY OR NEXT SUNDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED...WITH OPERATIONAL GFS MUCH QUICKER TRACKING THE FRONT EAST WHEN COMPARED TO OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE ECMWF AND GGEM. OPERATIONAL GFS QUICKER THAN MANY OF IT/S ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL. LATEST WPC FORECASTS PROG THE FRONT CLOSER TO ECMWF SOLUTION. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PER WPC NUMBERS AND LATEST MEX NUMBERS. TEMPS SETTLE BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL SUNDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/TSTMS WED WITH HIGHEST POPS NW OF NYC. POSSIBLE HIGHER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH/WEAKENING UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MAINLY DRY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...EXCEPT POSSIBLE SHOWER/TSTM NW OF NYC. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY. WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RISING DEW POINTS DUE TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW...THERE WILL BE THE INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING AT NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. MAY BE MORE OF A STRATUS DECK ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND POSSIBLY COASTAL CONNECTICUT WITH THE FLOW MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THAN SOUTH. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. S-SW WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS RETURNING BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTS 20-30KT EXPECTED BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH A MONDAY NIGHT. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY START EARLIER THAN FORECAST. A PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST IN THE TAF. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY START EARLIER THAN FORECAST. A PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST IN THE TAF. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY START EARLIER THAN FORECAST. A PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST IN THE TAF. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY START EARLIER THAN FORECAST. A PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST IN THE TAF. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY START EARLIER THAN FORECAST. A PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST IN THE TAF. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY START EARLIER THAN FORECAST. A PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST IN THE TAF. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .TUESDAY-FRIDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG LATE AT NIGHT/MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR. LOW CHANCE SHRA/TSTM EACH AFTERNOON...BUT MOSTLY NW OF CITY TERMINALS TUE AND WED. COASTAL SEA BREEZES LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON...WITH S-SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... SLY FLOW INCREASES THRU THE DAY...SO MAINTAINED THE SCA FOR THE S SHORE BAYS AND OCEAN STARTING AT 18Z LASTING THRU TNGT. WINDS MAY FALL BLW 25KT SOONER PARTICULARLY THE BAYS AND WRN OCEAN. SEAS REMAIN CLOSE TO 5 FT ON TUE...SO THE SCA WAS EXTENDED THRU THE DAY ON THE OCEAN. THERE IS A CHC THAT A SCA MAY BE NEEDED ON THE S SHORE BAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR SHINNECOCK...AS THE SLY FLOW RAMPS UP AGAIN LATE IN THE AFTN. A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BE CLOSE TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. NEARSHORE WIND GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS WELL. ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO PERSISTENTLY GUSTY SW FLOW. AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE WATERS AND A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FT THURSDAY. SUB SMALL CRAFT SEAS REMAIN INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE WATERS. FOG WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK AND INTO LATE WEEK...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING. && .FIRE WEATHER... MIXED DOWN DEWPOINTS FROM H85 THEN BLENDED IN SOME NAMDNG TO ACCOUNT FOR CSTL INFLUENCE FOR TODAY. THIS YIELDS MIN RH GENERALLY IN THE 30S. SOME UPR 20S POSSIBLE NERN NJ AND UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. KBDI IS BLW CRITERIA HOWEVER SO NO RED FLAG PRODUCTS. && .HYDROLOGY... WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED THRU SUNDAY. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ345. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/PW NEAR TERM...JMC/PW SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...BC MARINE...JMC/PW FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...JMC/PW

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