Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 281131 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 731 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure along the New England coast today gradually works offshore, while a cold front approaches from the Great Lakes. The front will work slowly across the area on Monday. High pressure follows for Tuesday. Another cold front moves through late Wednesday into Wednesday night with high pressure for the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A high amplitude ridge across the East Coast, centered over the Mid Atlantic states, will gradually flatten as a shortwave trough tracks across the upper Great Lakes. The latter of which will send a cold front toward the area. Before then though, another dry, warm day across the region. It will be a bit cooler than Saturday due to a subsidence inversion producing a shallower mixed layer, but still several degrees above normal. Highs will generally range from the lower 80s along the coast, to the upper 80s north and west of NYC. There is a moderate risk for rip current development today as 3 ft at 8 sec period swells build into the waters with minimal SE/S wind waves. There is a low potential for the risk to become high late in the day if 2 ft 15+ second SE swells begin to work into the water from distant tropical cyclone Gaston.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Upper ridge over the mid Atlantic region continues to get suppressed south as shortwave tracks across eastern Canada, just north of the Great Lakes. Associated cold front approaches the Lower Hudson Valley by daybreak Monday, then slowly drops SE across the area. The front is likely to clear the area by early evening. Marginal instability and weak shear along and ahead of the front point to isolated coverage of any showers or thunderstorms that develop. Highs Monday will be a bit warmer due to steeper lapse rates and warm advection ahead of the front. Many locations will top out in the upper 80s with areas in and around NYC getting into the lower 90s. High pressure builds in from the NW Monday night and settles across the area Tuesday with temperatures close to seasonable levels. It will be somewhat humid with dew points in the lower 60s, but not oppressively so. Winds become onshore by afternoon as the high moves offshore. There is the potential for a high risk for rip current development Monday as long period SE swells from distant tropical cyclone Gaston build to 3 to 4 ft. If this occurs, breaking surf in the 3 to 5 ft range could be expected as well. These conditions will likely continue into Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A cold front approaches on Wednesday and passes during the late day/nighttime period. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast during the period with the best overall chance appearing to be during Wednesday night. There is a chance that the cold front is still close enough, coupled with synoptic lift from a jet streak aloft, for a chance of morning showers on Thursday. For now, will go with slight chc pops east of the city Thursday morning. Drying conditions otherwise through Saturday as high pressure builds in behind the front. High temperatures Thursday through Saturday will be fairly close to normal, and dewpoints all 3 days will allow for relatively comfortable conditions. The threat for rough surf and high risk for rip current development could continue mid to late week if SE swells from Gaston continue to affect the waters. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR with high pressure in control through tonight. Light winds early this morning will become SE late morning into early afternoon with sea breezes. Speeds will increase to around 10 kt in the afternoon, strongest at the coast. Winds diminish and veer to the SW tonight. .Outlook for 12Z Monday through Thursday... .Monday...Mainly VFR. An isolated afternoon shower or tstm possible. .Tuesday...VFR. .Wednesday-Wednesday Night...Mainly VFR. A few showers or thunderstorms possible. .Thursday...VFR. An isolated morning shower or tstm possible.
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&& .MARINE... Seas will slowly build into early next week in response to long period swells being generated by distant Tropical Cyclone Gaston. Refer to advisories from the NHC for latest forecast information. Whether seas build to marginal sca levels late Monday into Monday night will be based on strengthening of Gaston. For the rest of the forecast period, winds appear to remain below advisory criteria, although they will increase during Wednesday ahead of an approaching weak cold front. Seas will continue to slowly build in response to long period swells being generated by distant Tropical Cyclone Gaston. 5+ FT seas could move into to the ocean waters as early as Monday night, and potentially linger through the rest of the forecast period. && .HYDROLOGY... No significant widespread precipitation is expected through the forecast period. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DW NEAR TERM...DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...JC/DW AVIATION...DS MARINE...DW HYDROLOGY...DW

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