Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 262057 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 357 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN ON TUESDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HANG ON TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. A BLEND OF MAV/NAM MOS LOOKED GOOD FOR LOWS...WHICH WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE ALOFT WORKING WITH SUFFICIENT LOW- MID MOISTURE COULD CAUSE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES DURING THE DAY WITH BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER DON`T CHANGE ALL THAT MUCH...SO HIGHS PROBABLY SIMILAR TO TODAY`S...GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. MOISTURE IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS THEN DIMINISHES FRIDAY NIGHT...SO TURNING CLEAR AND REMAINING COLD AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. LOWS 10-15 IN THE CITY WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST SUBURBS. SOME NORTHERN SUBURBS COULD SEE BELOW ZERO LOWS ONCE AGAIN. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPPER AIR PATTERN FINALLY SHOWING A CHANGE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA BREAKING DOWN WITH A SPLIT CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY AT THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES SAT INTO SUN. A NORTHERN BRANCH AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROF THEN SENDS A FAST MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON...FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY HIGH PRESSURE TUE...AND THEN ANOTHER SLOWER MID WEEK FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE LATTER OF WHICH DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH TIMING WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GGEM MUCH SLOWER THAN THE GFS. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A WARMUP...ALBEIT STILL BELOW NORMAL MOST OF THE PERIOD. SAT WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS STILL ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MODELS POINT TOWARD THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REESTABLISHING A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND A DEEPENING TROF ACROSS THE EAST LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD MEAN ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR. AS FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEMS...THE FIRST SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY SNOW AT THIS TIME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES. PREFERENCE WAS TOWARD THE COLDER GFS AND GGEM. THE MID WEEK SYSTEM LOOKS TO START AS SNOW TUE AFT/EVE... THEN TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST WED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FRONTAL WAVES TO IMPACT THE AREA. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GGEM ARE CONSIDERABLY SLOWER WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. THIS LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY A RAIN EVENT. && .AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. OUTSIDE OF MVFR CEILINGS AT KLGA THROUGH AROUND 22Z...IT SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. N-NE WINDS AROUND 10KT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT. WINDS DIMINISH TO 5KT OR LESS AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS THEN INCREASE TO 6-10KT OUT OF THE N-NW BY MID-LATE MORNING. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VARYING FROM 360-040 TRUE (010-050 MAGNETIC) THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 22Z. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VARYING FROM 340-050 TRUE (350-060 MAGNETIC) THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 22Z. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 22Z. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 22Z. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 22Z. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT THROUGH AROUND 22Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .FRIDAY AFTERNOON-SUNDAY MORNING...VFR. NW WIND GUSTS 15-20KT POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. .SUNDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY...CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER IN -SN. .MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR. NW-N WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE. .TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN -SN. SE-S WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE .TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN...A WINTRY MIX TO RAIN S AND -SN TO A WINTRY MIX N. LLWS POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL HELP CREATE SOME LONG PERIOD SWELLS AND KEEP SEAS AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE 5 FT FOR MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN WATERS...COULD STILL GUSTS OVER 25 KT. HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME FOR THE EASTERN WATERS. BECAUSE OF THE GUSTS EARLY THIS EVENING...FOR NOW HAVE LEFT IT AS A GENERAL SCA VS A SCA FOR HAZ SEAS. THE REST OF THE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE SUB-SCA CONDS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. INCREASING SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD SEAS TO SCA LEVELS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE LIQUID EQUIVALENT TO FALL FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/DW NEAR TERM...JC SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...DW AVIATION...MALOIT MARINE...JC/DW HYDROLOGY...JC/DW

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