Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 292246 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 646 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC DRIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS ACCORDING TO LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS OVERALL ON TRACK. 1032 MB HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY...CAN EXPECT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS THIS EVENING AND TEMPS AWAY FROM NYC WILL DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...SW FLOW INCREASES A BIT...AND WEAK WAA STRENGTHENS. CLOUDS INCREASE AND THICKEN AS A WEAK WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AND THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE TOWARDS DAYBREAK MONDAY. AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN ZONES PRIOR TO DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR NYC AND INTO THE LOW 30S FOR NEARBY SUBURBS. FOR THE REST OF NORTHEAST NJ...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN CT...AND LONG ISLAND WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S WITH SOME OUTLYING AREAS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 20S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND AND UPPER TROUGH WITH SEVERAL H5 SHORTWAVES IN THE AFTERNOON. A QUICK SHOT OF A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING FOR NYC WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE...AND THEN AS THERMAL PROFILES WARM UP DURING THE MORNING...PRECIP CHANGES TO RAIN. COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ANY RAIN WILL TAPER OFF LATE. NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN 1/10 INCH QPF...AND NOT EXPECTING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN THE MORNING. SKIES CLEAR OUT MONDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS... TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN NYC AND NEARBY SUBURBS... AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ELSEWHERE. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S AND 30S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... TUESDAY WILL START OUT DRY AS THE AREA IS SQUEEZED BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. CLOUDS AND POPS INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA. MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF PRECIPITATION...BRINGING PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND TAPERING PRECIP BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY INLAND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THEN MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW AND WARM MOIST AIR QUICKLY SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...WHILE A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. VFR. MID LEVEL DECK INCREASES LATE TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS IN SCT SHOWERS MON MORNING. PREFER TO KEEP TAFS VFR AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS. W/NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHIFT QUICKLY TO THE W/SW...THEN BECOME SLY THIS EVENING. LOCAL SEABREEZES AT KGON AND KJFK WILL TURN WINDS TO THE S/SW SOONER. A GUSTY W/SW FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD 18Z MON. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .MONDAY AFT...VFR. WEST WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. .MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. .TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -RA. .WEDNESDAY...VFR. .THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN -RA LATE IN IN THE DAY. POSSIBLE LLWS. .FRIDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC DROPS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS FALLING BELOW 5 FT...SO WILL CANCEL THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE 2 OCEAN WATERS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. SW GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS BY MONDAY MORNING...AND THEN A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS IN THE EVENING. WINDS/OCEAN SEAS BUILD TO SCA LEVELS MONDAY MORNING ON ALL WATERS...AND THEN CONDS SLOWLY SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS BY MONDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS EARLY TUESDAY...OTHERWISE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS WINDS AND WAVES DIMINISH AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. WAVES INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE OCEAN WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... LESS THAN 1/10 INCH QPF WILL FALL ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...HAVING NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS. NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB SITE. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ330- 335-338-340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$

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