Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KOKX 040233 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1033 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OVERNIGHT THEN STALL ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... THE COLD FRONT WAS VERY SLOW TO MOVE...AND REMAINS NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL AND SIMILAR HUMIDITY AS MONDAY. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH BUILDS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...FORCING THE ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH LOWER DEW POINTS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. A SUBSEQUENT DECREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL BE FELT AS THIS OCCURS. BY MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID- WEST TREKKING EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AFFECTING THE AREA MAINLY FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE IT TRACKS AND THEREFORE HOW MUCH RAIN WE DO RECEIVE. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR MORE CERTAIN THAT A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS IN STORE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. ISENTROPIC LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW NOTED IN BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SO THINKING THIS WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM RAIN. SURFACE LOW CONTINUES ITS APPROACH FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS DIFFER IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW. THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS AGREE WITH THE LOW BEING OVER THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY 06Z SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. 12Z ECMWF TREKS THE LOW NORTHEAST IN SIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WHILE IT SLOWLY STRENGTHENS WHILE THE GFS WEAKENS THE LOW OVER THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE AND WEAKER WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT...WHILE THE 12Z CANADIAN IS AN OUTLIER BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THEREFORE...SIDED MORE ALONG THE LINES OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AND KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY LOW PRESSURE PUSHES AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS. OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN ON FRIDAY...NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE 70S REGION-WIDE. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES MAY PROVE TO BE A BIT LOWER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST. WINDS HAVE COME DOWN...AND CAN EXPECT S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 KT AT KNYC TERMINALS AND 5 KT OR LESS INLAND FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING ALONG WITH MAINLY VFR CONDS. WILL TEMPO TSRA FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT...FROM 06-09Z OVER FAR WESTERN TERMINALS TO 08-11Z OVER MOST EASTERN TERMINALS. WILL LEAVE OUT OF KGON FOR NOW...AS IT IS HARD TO TELL IF TSRA WILL MAKE IT THERE. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS SHIFT TO THE W-SW AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT. GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOCAL SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS. SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK FOR 03Z WED THROUGH SAT... .TUE NIGHT...SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS MAINLY CSTL TERMINALS IN THE EVENING. BECOMING VFR OVERNIGHT. SW FLOW BECOMING NW OVERNIGHT. .WED-THU...VFR. GENERALLY W FLOW. .FRI...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. WINDS BECOMING NE. .SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN. NE WINDS. && .MARINE... FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME. WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STRONG INTO LATE TONIGHT BEFORE LIGHTENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER THE WATERS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER OR NEAR THE WATERS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN. && .HYDROLOGY... A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS. A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN WHERE AND WHEN THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL. ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD LIMIT FLOODING POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MD/JP NEAR TERM...MET SHORT TERM...MD LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...MPS MARINE...MET HYDROLOGY...MD/JP

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.