Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 251350 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 950 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front approaches today and moves through the region tonight. High pressure builds to the west Tuesday and moves off the southeast coast Wednesday into Thursday. A weak cold front approaches the region Friday and may linger into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Back edge of clouds moving across the NYC metro, coastal CT, and Long Island the next couple of hours. Mostly sunny skies will develop from west to east with rapidly warming temps. Upstream convection over the western NY state will be closely watched as outflow boundaries and mid level short wave arrive this afternoon. Decaying convective complex passes about 40 miles south of LI this morning. Shearing northern stream shortwave then approaches late today with pre-frontal trough approaching the region late this afternoon crossing the region this evening. Trailing cold front crosses tonight. Temps rapidly heat up late this morning into early afternoon. Temperatures away from the south coasts should be able to climb into the lower to mid 90s...with dewpoints rising into the lower 70s. Heat indices of 100 to 104 expected across nyc/NJ metro...with potential for 105+ if dewpoints advecting NE from southern NJ/se PA don`t mix out. For most of the remainder of the region...heat indices peaking around 100 degrees. The exception will be southern and eastern coastal areas limited to the mid to upper 80s due to morning cloud cover and onshore flow. Despite this...heat indices could still peak in the mid to upper 90s as dewpoints should surge into the lower to mid 70s. In terms of convection...would expect subsidence in wake of lead shortwave to limit convective potential late morning into early afternoon. Can`t rule out an isolated storm developing along the developing pre-frontal/lee trough and tracking eastward into NE NJ /Lower Hud during this time. Better chance for organized shra/tsra development will be late afternoon into this evening as shra/tsra likely develop/maintain across central NY/PA along early morning convective outflow/pre-frontal trough and approach the region...supported by lift from approaching shortwave energy and right rear quad of jet streak. This forcing in combination with marginal to locally moderate instability...thanks to a subtle elevated mixed a very moist environment should support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing/maintaining W/NW of NYC metro late this afternoon and then translating eastward through Lower Hud/NE NJ/SW CT and NYC metro and towards the western coastal areas late today into this evening. Strengthening uni-directional deep layer shear and tstm coverage should support storm organization into strong to severe storms line segments affecting NYC/NJ/LI metro and points N/NW/W. Damaging winds from wet micro/macro bursts looks like the main threat based on uni-directional wind fields...deep moisture...and inverted V soundings. Relatively quick storm motions should localize flash flood threat to areas with training tstms. Convection should become elevated and weaken this evening as it translates farther east across LI/Southern CT as it runs into a deeper marine stable layer. Convection should push offshore by around midnight as shortwave axis moves across. Drier air slowly advects in late tonight with weak cold frontal passage. Areas of fog possible across outlying areas in warm and muggy airmass. There is a low risk of rip current development this morning...becoming moderate late this afternoon into evening as southerly wind waves increase to around 3 ft. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/... Shortwave axis slides offshore Tuesday...with deep WNW flow on Tuesday. With 850 hpa temps still running in the high teens...deep mixing...downslope flow and full sunshine...expect temps to quickly rise into the mid 90s for much of the coastal plain. Lower 90s for nw hills...and potential for a few upper 90s for NYC/NJ metro. Noticeably lower dewpoints should keep heat indices close to air temps...but close to heat advisory criteria for NYC metro. Sea breezes should be limited to late day and immediate south coasts...if at all. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure builds across the area on Tuesday night then moves offshore on Thursday. A stalled frontal boundary south of the area will remain through the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evenings Thursday and through the weekend, as waves of low pressure begin to ride along this frontal boundary. Temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will be above normal with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and returning to normal levels on Friday and through the weekend with highs in the low to mid 80s. && .AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A warm front moves across the terminals this morning followed by a cold front passage tonight. VFR forecast through this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to move across late this afternoon and evening with brief MVFR or lower visibilities. Gusty winds and heavy rain possible in any storms. Some uncertainty in timing and how far east these storms will be able to move. SSW-SW flow 5-10 KT will give way to afternoon sea breezes at coastal terminals 10-15 KT. VFR conditions expected tonight, but it is possible that outlying terminals, such as KHPN and KGON could have MVFR or lower VSBYs in fog late tonight. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/ KJFK TAF Comments: Brief MVFR CIG through 15z. Some variability in wind direction between 200-220 true this morning with winds backing to around 180 true this afternoon. Amendments for TSRA timing this afternoon/evening likely. KLGA TAF Comments: Winds should veer to the SW late this morning with sea breeze passage possible this afternoon. Amendments for TSRA timing this afternoon/evening likely. KEWR TAF Comments: Winds should veer to the SW late this morning with sea breeze passage possible this afternoon. Amendments for TSRA timing this afternoon/evening likely. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: Winds should veer to the SW late this morning with sea breeze passage possible this afternoon. Amendments for TSRA timing this afternoon/evening likely. KHPN TAF Comments: Winds should veer to the SW late this morning with sea breeze passage unlikely this afternoon. Amendments for TSRA timing this afternoon/evening likely. KISP TAF Comments: Southerly winds continue through the day. Amendments for TSRA timing this afternoon/evening likely. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .Tuesday-Wednesday Night...VFR. .Thursday-Thursday Night...Mainly VFR, except MVFR or lower possible in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly late in the day and at night. .Friday...Chance of MVFR or lower in scattered showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Sub sca conditions expected through Tuesday. S/SW winds gusts to 20 kt possible for most waters this afternoon...with nearshore NW winds gusts to 20 kt possible Tuesday afternoon. Occasional nearshore gusts to 25 kt possible. Ocean seas should remain in the 2 to 4 ft range. Slight tstm threat on the water this morning with greater chance late today through this evening. Below small advisory conditions expected across the area waters from Tuesday through Friday. && .HYDROLOGY... There is the potential for 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rainfall, with locally higher amounts, possibly 2+ inches, as numerous showers and thunderstorms track across the region late this afternoon into this evening. This presents a localized flash flood threat...mainly across nyc/nj metro and interior with any training cells. There is the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms, across the area during the afternoons and evenings Thursday through next weekend. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>007-009- 010. NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ067>075-078- 080-176>179. NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-006- 103>108. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FIG/NV NEAR TERM...NV/DW SHORT TERM...NV LONG TERM...FIG AVIATION...MPS/DS MARINE...FIG/NV HYDROLOGY...FIG/NV is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.