Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KOKX 250710
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
310 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016
High pressure will remain over the region through Monday. A slow
moving cold front will begin to approach Monday night, and will
impact the area into Wednesday. High pressure will follow from the
west on Thursday. A frontal system may begin to approach on
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Upper level ridge builds in from the west today. Meanwhile, one
area of surface high pressure over the Gulf of Maine will continue
to push offshore as another area of high pressure over the eastern
Great Lakes moves into western NY/PA.
Some stratus has lifted along the coast and into western Long
Island, and that stratus should dissipate after sunrise.
Mostly sunny skies with temperatures right around normal for this
time of year. Highs will top off in the mid to upper 80s in/around
NYC and areas west of the Hudson River, and in the low to mid 80s
With an increasing E-SE flow along the coasts, there is a
moderate risk for the development of rip currents at Atlantic
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Upper ridge and surface high pressure continues to build east and
will be overhead on Sunday before moving offshore Sunday night.
With light onshore flow tonight, can expect patchy fog to develop
across mainly eastern CT and Long Island.
Sunday will feature continued sunshine with slightly warmer
temperatures. Afternoon sea breezes are likely at coastal areas.
Mainly clear skies will continue Sunday night. Lows will drop
into the mid and upper 60s in/around NYC, and in the low 60s most
elsewhere. Some outlying areas will drop into the mid 50s.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure continues to move offshore on Monday as a cold
front approaches from the west. A pre-frontal trough will develop
ahead of that front, and some showers/thunderstorms may nose into
far western areas Monday afternoon. Based on latest model
guidance, the bulk of the activity will hold off until Monday
Showers and thunderstorms will then increase over the area
Tuesday through Wednesday as that front works its way through the
Northeast. Meanwhile, low pressure looks to develop just south of
the area Tuesday, and will lift NE through the region Tuesday
night through Wednesday morning.
For now, will carry chance pops Monday night through Wednesday.
Precip should taper off Wednesday evening, and then dry conditions
return Wednesday night.
Dry on Thursday with high pressure building in, then slowly
increasing chances for showers/tstms on Friday with the approach
of another upper trough and associated frontal system from the
Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal for the first
half of the week, then will be closer to normal for the second
half of the week.
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure builds across the region with generally VFR through
the TAF period. Only exception is patchy stratus early this
Satellite indicates patchy stratus extending into portions of
Long Island. Brief IFR through 12Z possible as a result.
Otherwise, few clouds and VFR expected.
Light NE winds early this morning will veer to a SE flow late this
morning into afternoon, likely increasing to 10 to 15 kt with
occasional higher gusts in the late afternoon for coastal
terminals. These winds lighten during the evening hours.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Late tonight-Sunday Night...VFR. Late night/early morning
coastal stratus/fog possible.
.Monday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for showers and
.Monday Night-Tuesday Night...MVFR or lower possible in showers
.Wednesday...Possible MVFR or lower with a chance of showers and
High pressure remains over the forecast waters today through
Sunday. Winds and seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels during this period. Patchy fog may develop on the eastern
waters late tonight through Sunday morning.
Sub-SCA conditions are expected on the area waters for the new
week. Thunderstorms may pose local hazards Tuesday through
Dry conditions through at least Monday.
A slow moving cold front will pass through the region Monday
night through Wednesday. In general, up to 1/2 inch basin average
QPF possible, but locally higher amounts are possible in
thunderstorms, especially where there is training of