Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KOKX 301645 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1245 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK INLAND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN INTO FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE HIGH OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON CU FIELD...AIDED BY A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE...CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. CONDS TOO DRY FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE LOCAL CWA. HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...CLOSE TO A GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE BLEND AND CONSISTENT WITH MIXING UP TO 825 MB. DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SLOWLY EDGE INTO AREAS FROM NYC NORTH/WEST TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THERE AND PTCLDY SKIES TO THE EAST. FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LACKING AS SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO/QUEBEC WILL BE WEAK AND PASSING JUST TO THE NW. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/... A BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME ON THU AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE CLOSED LOW...AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TSTM PER NAM FCST SOUNDINGS. HAVE SCT COVERAGE ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA DESPITE ONSHORE FLOW...AS MARINE LAYER LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT CONVECTION ONLY ACROSS FAR ERN SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. HIGHS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE 00Z MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS THE PREVIOUS FCST WAS ON TRACK...SO ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE. INSTABILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR FRI WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PERHAPS A FEW SHRA AND TSTMS. LEFT THE LOW CHC POPS AT 30. MARITIME LAYER OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE CWA...SO TSTM CHCS APPEAR TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BY EVE...EVEN FAR INLAND. SUBTROPICAL TAP APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE GFS INDICATES THE BEST FORCING AND RESULTANT RAIN CHCS ON SUNDAY... WITH THE ECMWF ON SAT. MAINTAINED AROUND 40 POP FOR THE WEEKEND... ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT APPEAR IT WILL RAIN ALL WEEKEND ATTM. WITH PW INCREASING TO AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL...DID INCREASE RAINFALL INTENSITY TO MDT. COLD FROPA EXPECTED ON TUE PER THE 00Z DATA...BUT THE ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL TROF SHOULD USHER THE BEST MOISTURE OFFSHORE BEFORE... POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MON. FOR THIS REASON THE SCHC POPS ON MON ARE APPROPRIATE...WITH A FEW ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE DRIER AIR MASS TUE AFTN. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD ARE CLOSE TO THE GRAPHICAL MOS...WITH THE PREV 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SPREAD THRU THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE UNTIL SEA BREEZES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PASS THROUGH SOME TERMINALS. WINDS GENERALLY SW TO S 10KT OR LESS. SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY 18Z THURSDAY BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. ..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN EITHER DIRECTION. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY IF NE WIND OCCURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE TOO EARLY BY AN HOUR OR TWO. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO SEA BREEZE FORECAST BUT AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR IN EITHER DIRECTION. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS. .SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS. && .MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS FRI THRU THE WEEKEND. && .HYDROLOGY... A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF UPR LVL FEATURES. SOME AREAS OF MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THESE OCCUR. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN NEAR TERM...MPS SHORT TERM...GOODMAN LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...LN MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/MET/DW HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.