Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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769 FXUS61 KOKX 250710 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 310 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain over the region through Monday. A slow moving cold front will begin to approach Monday night, and will impact the area into Wednesday. High pressure will follow from the west on Thursday. A frontal system may begin to approach on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Upper level ridge builds in from the west today. Meanwhile, one area of surface high pressure over the Gulf of Maine will continue to push offshore as another area of high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes moves into western NY/PA. Some stratus has lifted along the coast and into western Long Island, and that stratus should dissipate after sunrise. Mostly sunny skies with temperatures right around normal for this time of year. Highs will top off in the mid to upper 80s in/around NYC and areas west of the Hudson River, and in the low to mid 80s elsewhere. With an increasing E-SE flow along the coasts, there is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at Atlantic Ocean beaches. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Upper ridge and surface high pressure continues to build east and will be overhead on Sunday before moving offshore Sunday night. With light onshore flow tonight, can expect patchy fog to develop across mainly eastern CT and Long Island. Sunday will feature continued sunshine with slightly warmer temperatures. Afternoon sea breezes are likely at coastal areas. Mainly clear skies will continue Sunday night. Lows will drop into the mid and upper 60s in/around NYC, and in the low 60s most elsewhere. Some outlying areas will drop into the mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure continues to move offshore on Monday as a cold front approaches from the west. A pre-frontal trough will develop ahead of that front, and some showers/thunderstorms may nose into far western areas Monday afternoon. Based on latest model guidance, the bulk of the activity will hold off until Monday night. Showers and thunderstorms will then increase over the area Tuesday through Wednesday as that front works its way through the Northeast. Meanwhile, low pressure looks to develop just south of the area Tuesday, and will lift NE through the region Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. For now, will carry chance pops Monday night through Wednesday. Precip should taper off Wednesday evening, and then dry conditions return Wednesday night. Dry on Thursday with high pressure building in, then slowly increasing chances for showers/tstms on Friday with the approach of another upper trough and associated frontal system from the west. Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal for the first half of the week, then will be closer to normal for the second half of the week. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure builds across the region with generally VFR through the TAF period. Only exception is patchy stratus early this morning. Satellite indicates patchy stratus extending into portions of Long Island. Brief IFR through 12Z possible as a result. Otherwise, few clouds and VFR expected. Light NE winds early this morning will veer to a SE flow late this morning into afternoon, likely increasing to 10 to 15 kt with occasional higher gusts in the late afternoon for coastal terminals. These winds lighten during the evening hours. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .Late tonight-Sunday Night...VFR. Late night/early morning coastal stratus/fog possible. .Monday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms late. .Monday Night-Tuesday Night...MVFR or lower possible in showers and thunderstorms. .Wednesday...Possible MVFR or lower with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... High pressure remains over the forecast waters today through Sunday. Winds and seas will remain below small craft advisory levels during this period. Patchy fog may develop on the eastern waters late tonight through Sunday morning. Sub-SCA conditions are expected on the area waters for the new week. Thunderstorms may pose local hazards Tuesday through Wednesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Dry conditions through at least Monday. A slow moving cold front will pass through the region Monday night through Wednesday. In general, up to 1/2 inch basin average QPF possible, but locally higher amounts are possible in thunderstorms, especially where there is training of thunderstorms. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPS NEAR TERM...MPS SHORT TERM...MPS LONG TERM...MPS AVIATION...PW MARINE...MPS HYDROLOGY...MPS

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