Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 260009 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 709 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and scattered thunderstorms with a cold frontal passage this evening. Cool high pressure then builds south of the area through Monday. A slow moving warm front will approach from Monday night into Tuesday night, the lift north on Wednesday. Low pressure passing to the north will drag a trailing cold front through late Wednesday night or early Thursday. Another cold front will pass through on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/... Dense Advection Fog has reformed over Long Island and the CT Coast. Thus, had to put up an advisory until 02Z. The rain ends quickly this evening and northwest winds usher in a more seasonal airmass. && .SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Seasonable weather returns for Sunday. NW winds gust up to 30 mph through the day and then diminish at night. With clear skies and light winds, expect decent radiational cooling Sunday night. Temperature guidance remains consistent and was accepted. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NWP guidance fairly close through the period, though did side with slower NAM at first with approaching weak mid level shortwave moving through a flat upper longwave ridge. After that, went with a 00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS blend, with increasing chances of rain in large scale WAA, and likelihood of rain Tue night through Wed night ahead low pressure passing to the north and an approaching trailing cold front. As mild/humid air streams northward with dewpoints in the 50s, fog likely Wed night that could be dense along the coast. Cold fropa late Wed night could be accompanied by brief heavier showers. After cold fropa on Thu, drier/colder air will arrive on a gusty W then NW flow, with wind gusts 30-40 mph possible especially NYC metro and coastal sections. Another cold frontal passage expected late Friday, and kept fcst dry but did increase clouds with its approach/passage. Temps should remain on the mild side through Thu, with at least 50s each day and lower 60s for NYC metro/NE NJ on Wed. Much colder for Thu night and beyond, with lows in the lower 30s NYC metro and 20s elsewhere Thu night and Sat night, and even colder Fri night, with teens and 20s. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A cold front moves across this evening with high pressure building in from the west thereafter. Fog and IFR/LIFR conditions eastern terminals will return to VFR before 3Z as front moves through. Otherwise, any linger showers or thunderstorms end quickly, with VFR conditions through the TAF period. Winds W-WNW near 15 kt gusting 25-30 kt are expected. Winds could occasionally peak a few kts higher than forecast. These gusty conditions continue through the day Sunday. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .Sunday night-Monday evening...VFR. W-SW winds G15-20KT Monday. .Late Monday night-Wednesday...Chance of MVFR or lower at times with rain. S-SW winds G15-20 KT along coast Wednesday. .Wednesday night...Areas of fog and rain. IFR or below. SW winds G15- 25KT along coast. .Thursday...MVFR possible with a chance of showers. SW-W winds G20- 30KT Thursday. && .MARINE... Small craft advisory (SCA) on the coastal waters for through the day on Sunday in the wake of a cold frontal passage this evening. SCA conditions will linger through Sunday night on the Ocean waters as winds slowly subside, but seas will remain at or above the 5 FT criteria. Mon into Mon Eve: SCA for the eastern ocean waters via favorable WSW fetch of 15-20 kt wind on northern periphery of offshore high pressure. Wed afternoon/night: SCA conds on the ocean waters via increasing S- SW flow ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Dense fog likely to develop as very moist air moves over the colder waters. Thu into Thu night: Cold fropa followed by W-NW gales on the ocean and SCA conds elsewhere. && .HYDROLOGY... Around a half inch of rain with locally higher amounts can be expected through tonight. Rainfall of 1/2 to 3/4 inch possible from Tue night into Thu morning. No hydrologic issues expected. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for CTZ010>012. NY...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for NYZ078>081- 179. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ330-335-338- 340-345-350-353-355. Dense Fog Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for ANZ330-340- 345-350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Goodman/Tongue NEAR TERM...Tongue SHORT TERM...Tongue LONG TERM...Goodman AVIATION...PW MARINE...Goodman/Tongue HYDROLOGY...Goodman/Tongue

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