Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 172358 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 658 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EMERGES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS 500 HPA TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING BACK TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKE. THIS PIVOTS THROUGH THE TRI-STATE BY LATE TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS...EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SHOULD HAVE JUST ENOUGH FORCING FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED SPRINKLES...AND POSSIBLY MIXED WITH FLURRIES ACROSS SOME OF THE NORTHERN ZONES AS MOISTURE COULD EXTEND JUST DEEP ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTALS TO FORM. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL... CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY FOR THURSDAY. WENT WITH THE WARMER MAV MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS BASED ON MIXING TO 900MB AND A MODERATE DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURS NIGHT IS AN EVEN BLEND OF NAM AND MAV MOS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS. THE WARMER MAV MOS ONCE AGAIN WAS USED FOR HIGH TEMPS BASED ON TEMPS ALOFT.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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GLOBAL MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF...ARE IN AMAZINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG MID WEEK STORM SYSTEM THAT TAKES A TRACK WEST OF THE AREA. PRIOR TO THAT TIME...THERE ARE MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF ONE OF THESE WAVES MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THE LATTER OF WHICH THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH IN TAKING THE LOW THE FARTHEST NORTH...WHILE THE GGEM AND GFS ARE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. PREFERENCE THOUGH IS TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN THE LAST 24H...SO LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF. THIS ALL SPELLS OUT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER FROM LATE SAT NIGHT INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THERMAL PROFILES ARE GENERALLY WARM WITH PERHAPS A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...PRIMARILY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. A LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW INTERACTS WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH POSSIBLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. LOW PRESSURE THEN EMERGES OFF THE SE COAST ON SUN AND TAKES A TRACK SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH TUE. A MUCH MORE ROBUST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THEN RAPIDLY DEEPENS ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS TUE NIGHT INTO WED...EVENTUALLY WRAPPING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH PRESSURES APPROACHING 960 MB. THIS TRACK WOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND EVEN STRONG WINDS. THE CAVEAT HERE IS THAT THE STORM IS ABOUT A WEEK AWAY WITH A LOT OF TIME FOR CHANGE IN TRACK AND TIMING. IN ADDITION...THE FAST PAC FLOW WOULD LEAD ONE TO BELIEVE THAT THERE ARE GOING TO BE TIMING ISSUES WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE ENERGY. TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND START OFF AT NEARLY NORMAL LEVELS AND THEM MODERATE BY MID WEEK. HIGHS NEAR 50 ON WED COULD BE UNDERDONE IF THE PATTERN AND STORM TRACK PANS OUT.
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&& .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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&& .MARINE...
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MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SCA REMAINS POSTED FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE OCEAN WATERS EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS GUSTS TO 25 KT CONTINUE. THERE MAY BE A GUST OR TWO UP TO 35 KT OVER THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A GALE WARNING. WINDS THEN SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SAT-MON AS HIGH PRES PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH ON MON WITH A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING NE FLOW.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... MAINLY DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO TUE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT LATE TUE INTO WED. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335- 338-340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/DW NEAR TERM...JC/MALOIT SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...DW AVIATION...GOODMAN/NV MARINE...JC/MALOIT/DW HYDROLOGY...JC/DW

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