Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 312305 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 705 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN/AROUND NYC...AND GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. FAR NW PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY COULD DROP INTO THE MID 50S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY...AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE DAY. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE...SFC DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 60S...AND HIGHER INSTABILITY LEVELS...CAN EXPECT MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSTMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. BEST CHANCES FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS NYC/NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/SW CT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL AVERAGE 20-30 KT...SO NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO BE TOO LONG LIVED...BUT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...SO STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. SHOWERS/STORMS TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL LIFT NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...TOPPING OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS NYC/NE NJ. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FRIDAY FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND BEACHES.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WHILE A COASTAL FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE EAST COAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OR OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND SHOWERS SHOULD TAPPER OFF BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL... HOWEVER TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK... WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOW IN THE UPPER 60S...WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS LOW ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SO WHILE A SHRA/TSTM AT CITY AND WESTERN TERMINALS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...THE PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL IS 10 PERCENT OR LESS. S WINDS AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT MAINLY AT CITY TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE S-SE MID-LATE FRIDAY MORNING. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF END OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE END OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND START/END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE END OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND START/END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE END OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND START/END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20KT THROUGH 23Z. TIMING IN ONSET OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20KT THROUGH 23Z. TIMING IN ONSET OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. .SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. .MONDAY-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
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&& .MARINE...
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HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACKS TOWARD THE AREA AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL DAYS. SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON FRIDAY WILL PRESENT MAINLY A URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT... WITH A LOW AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY TRAINING OF CELLS. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS NEAR TERM...MPS/PW SHORT TERM...MPS LONG TERM...FIG AVIATION...MALOIT/MET MARINE...FIG/MPS/PW HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS

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