Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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293 FXUS61 KOKX 261438 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1038 AM EDT Fri May 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure tracks off the New England coast today. Weak high pressure builds in tonight and Saturday, then retreats to the northeast as a weak wave of low pressure passes near the region Sunday into Monday. A cold front approaches from the west on Tuesday, then crosses the area Tuesday night. A series a weak waves of low pressure will result in unsettled weather for the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... NW flow on backside of departing low has advected drier air into the region with much of the rain dissipating. Have even noticed some partial clearing this morning, but heating as we head into the afternoon helps redevelop stratocu with sky conditions averaging mostly cloudy. There will be enough solar heating to kick off scattered showers today with deep-layered cyclonic flow. Some instability exists between 5 and 10 kft, but do not expect any lightning as the CAPE does not extend much above -5C. Any showers will be brief. High temperatures will be near seasonable levels, ranging from the 60s across far eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut, to the lower and middle 70s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Heights build aloft as the upper low moves out into the northern Atlantic. Weak high pressure builds in at the surface tonight into the first half of Saturday, then offshore with a weak return flow developing Saturday afternoon. There is a chance of showers late Saturday afternoon, mainly to the north and west of NYC as a mid level short approaches from the west. Temperatures will be near seasonable levels with clouds increasing in the afternoon due to warm advection ahead of the aforementioned mid level short wave trough. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... An unsettled weather pattern will continue through the long term period. A weak wave of low pressure will pass south of the region Saturday night into Sunday, followed by another shortwave late Sunday night into Monday. With model differences with respect to timing and placement of these weak waves, will only go chance or slight chance POPs. The better of the two days for precipitation will be Monday. An easterly flow will result in mostly cloudy skies for much of Sunday and Monday. A broad closed low then slowly tracks from Ontario into western Quebec from Monday night through Thursday, with shortwaves rotating around the base of the low from time to time. The timing of these shortwaves is somewhat difficult this far out, but for now it appears that most energy will be focused north of the region. As a result, there is a chance of isolated to scattered showers - mainly over northern portions of the Tri-state. Also, cannot rule out a rumble of thunder Tuesday/Tuesday night with the passage of a surface cold front. The easterly flow across the region Sunday and Monday will keep temperatures below normal. Temperatures return to more seasonable levels Tuesday through Thursday. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Low pres will slowly track NE through the Gulf of ME today...southeast of Nova Scotia tonight...and then out to sea Saturday. MVFR improving to VFR late this morning into this afternoon. Isolated showers developing late morning into this afternoon. VFR tonight...with few-sct cigs. Gusty W/WNW flow developing this afternoon. Peak gusts 20 to 25 kt. Gusts diminishing this evening. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/ KJFK TAF Comments: Winds generally left of 310 magnetic. 20 to 25 kt gusts this afternoon. KLGA TAF Comments: Winds generally left of 310 magnetic...but may waver around 310 magnetic this afternoon/early eve. 20 to 25 kt gusts this afternoon. KEWR TAF Comments: Winds generally left of 310 magnetic. 20 to 25 kt gusts this afternoon. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: Winds generally left of 310 magnetic...with around 20 kt gusts this afternoon. KHPN TAF Comments: W/WNW gusts to 20 kt this afternoon. KISP TAF Comments: W/WNW gusts to 20 kt this afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .Saturday...MVFR cigs possibly developing in the afternoon. Afternoon sea breeze .Saturday Night-Monday...MVFR/IFR possible in showers. E/SE winds. .Tuesday...Improving to VFR. S/SE winds. && .MARINE... West winds behind departing low pressure and a southerly swell will keep seas above 5 ft on the ocean waters through tonight. High pressure then builds across the area saturday with sub-SCA conditions. A light pressure gradient over the region Saturday night-Wednesday will result in conditions remaining below small craft advisory levels. Unsettled weather however can still be expected as a series of weak disturbances move across or near the area waters. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts through Sunday afternoon. Another round of rain is possible from Sunday night into late Monday. At this time, it appears that average precipitation amounts will remain below a quarter of an inch. No hydrologic impact will be experienced from this system. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... The combination of high astronomical tides and a southerly swell will keep water levels within striking distance of minor coastal flood benchmarks for potentially several high tide cycles through this weekend into early next week for the more vulnerable locations. The new moon was yesterday and tide levels will gradually begin to lower this weekend. However, the swell will likely inhibit water levels from receding much in the south shore back bays of western Long Island today with a minor coastal food episode likely during the higher of the two tide cycles this evening. Thus, a coastal flood advisory has been issued for Southern Queens and Southern Nassau counties. A statement is also in effect for isolated minor coastal flooding across lower New York Harbor. Elsewhere, the coastlines adjacent to western Long Island Sound could also come close tonight, but confidence is low at this time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM to 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/DW NEAR TERM...BC/DS/DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...JMC/NV MARINE...BC/DW HYDROLOGY...BC/DW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.