Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 251950 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 350 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT AREA LATE NEXT WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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DRY CONDS ON TAP FOR TONIGHT WITH THE TOP OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST SOUTH OF NYC/LONG ISLAND. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DECREASE TO 5-10 MPH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPILL OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE LATE TONIGHT...GENERALLY RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT AS WELL. USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS MOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 60S IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ELSEWHERE. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN FACING BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH INCREASING S-SW WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO USHER A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S IN/AROUND NYC...AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AND ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT. MOST OTHER AREAS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW 80S...WHILE LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM ABOVE THE LOWER 70S DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW AND WATER TEMPS STILL IN THE 50S. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH FORECASTED CAPE VALUES OVER 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND A STEEPENING LAPSE RATE...CAN EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS IN AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS ALSO INDICATING SOME PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. WILL CAP POPS AT CHANCE...AS ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD. WILL NOT MENTION SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR COASTAL AREAS AS SEA BREEZES SHOULD HAVE A STABILIZING EFFECT ON THE AREA...AND ANY STORMS THAT POP UP WILL NOT BE ABLE TO LAST IN THAT ENVIRONMENT. SOME FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL AREAS. WILL INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALSO SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HARD TO TELL EXACTLY WHERE THE CONVECTION WOULD SET UP...BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL EXPAND WESTWARD BACK TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE GREAT LAKES DAMPENS AND LIFTS TO THE NE WED INTO THU. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SUBTROP RIDGE...BERMUDA HIGH...TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...PUMPING IN WARM...HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY FORECAST DILEMMA IS WITH THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT LATE NEXT WEEKEND MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS THE FASTEST...AND MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HOWEVER...DEFERRED TO THE SLOWER ECMWF WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS. AS FOR CONVECTION...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE THE AIRMASS CAN DESTABILIZE THE MOST. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE OUTSIDE OF ANY WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY ABLE TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THIS WILL BE A MODERATE CAPE ENVIRONMENT...BUT WEAKLY SHEARED. STEERING FLOW BECOMES LIGHT ALOFT AT THE END OF THE WEEK. THUS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS WELL. POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE NEXT WEEKEND AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM BY ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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HIGH PRES REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. S-SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20-28KT. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: A GUST OR TWO UP TO 30KT POSSIBLE FROM 21-23Z. WINDS AT 750-1000 FT AGL COULD BE NEAR 40KT FROM APPROX 22Z-04Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT GUSTS THIS EVENING COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: A GUST OR TWO UP TO 30KT POSSIBLE FROM 21-23Z...BUT NOT PROBABLE. END TIME OF FREQUENT GUSTS THIS EVENING COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY PROBABLY REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE TERMINAL FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. CHANCE THAT WINDS SHIFT 180-200 TRUE NEAR 01-02Z WITH THE SEA BREEZE. END TIME OF FREQUENT GUSTS THIS EVENING COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE MAY SHIFT WINDS BACK TO 160-180 TRUE AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. END TIME OF FREQUENT GUSTS LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: END TIME OF FREQUENT GUSTS COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MIGHT BE ONLY OCCASIONAL INTO THIS EVENING. A GUST OR TWO UP 27-30KT POSSIBLE FROM APPROX 22-00Z. WINDS AT 750-1000 FT AGL COULD BE NEAR 40KT FROM APPROX 22Z-04Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .TUE PM...LOW CHC SHRA/TSTM NW OF CITY TERMINALS. G20-25KT. .WED...CHC AM MVFR OR LOWER IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG. LOW CHC PM SHRA/TSTM. G.25KT. .THU-SAT...CHC AM MVFR OR LOWER IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG. CHC SHRA/TSTM. G.20-25KT.
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&& .MARINE...
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SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH WINDS APPROACHING SCA LEVELS ON THE OCEAN WATERS...AND WITH SCA LEVEL WINDS NEAR THE HARBOR AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS. SCA WILL RUN ON NY HARBOR/SOUTH SHORE BAYS UNTIL 00Z. FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 FT AND SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS MAY DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WITH THE INCREASED SEAS...WILL GO AHEAD AND CARRY THE SCA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY CONDS TONIGHT...AND THEN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL...POSSIBLY REDUCING VSBY TO LESS THAN 1 NM. ROUGH SEAS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE DUE TO A PERSISTENT SLY AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB TROP RIDGE. FOG WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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MIN RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 30-40 PERCENT THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE COASTS. KBDI IS BLW CRITERIA HOWEVER SO NO RED FLAG PRODUCTS.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND ANY TRAINING OF CELLS COULD RESULT IN MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE NEXT WEEKEND AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353- 355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ338- 345.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS NEAR TERM...MPS SHORT TERM...MPS LONG TERM...DW AVIATION...JC MARINE...MPS/DW FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...MPS/DW

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