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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 190506
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
106 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT HAS PASSED SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SATURDAY...STALLING OVER OR NEAR THE
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
COLD FRONT IS JUST OFFSHORE AND WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD SOUTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. LOW CHANCE POPS WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR TO LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES FILTERS
INTO THE REGION. EXPECTING DEW POINTS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 70S. MAY SEE SEA BREEZES DEVELOP AT THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE
OBSERVED SO FORECASTING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND MIDDLE 50S ACROSS LONG ISLAND. FOR NEW YORK
CITY...LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
GLOBAL MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN
DURING THE LONG TERM SIGNIFYING A MEAN TROUGH GRADUALLY GIVING
WAY TO RISING HEIGHTS.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC ON THU
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC INTO SAT WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. MODELS ARE
HINTING AT ISOLD CONVECTION FRI AFTN/EARLY EVE...BUT AM HAVING A
HARD TIME FINDING A TRIGGER AND SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A MID
LEVEL CAP SO HAVE REMOVED SCHC POPS. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE N ON SAT...ALTHOUGH EC HAS A MORE DEFINED
SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND IS THEREFORE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE
GFS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL NEAR OR OVER THE LOCAL AREA
SAT NIGHT INTO TUE. THE POTENTIAL FOR MCS/MCCS EXIST IF THE THE
OPERATIONAL EC SOLN IS REALIZED AS WE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN JET.

AS FOR TEMPS...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING
RESULTING IN MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS COLD FRONT WORKS
ITS WAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW IN ITS
WAKE...MVFR TO IFR CONDS IN STRATUS/BR CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. CIGS
WILL DROP AS LOW AS 600 FT AWAY FROM KNYC TERMINALS...WHILE 800 FT
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR COASTAL LOCATIONS. MOST AREAS WILL DROP TO
1500 FT OR SO. VFR RETURNS BETWEEN 10-12Z...THEN VFR ON TAP FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

N/NE WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT BY 10Z...AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
TO AROUND 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT FROM AROUND 10Z
TO 15Z. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 03Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAKER GUSTS ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.

WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
SEAS WILL REMAIN UNDER SCA CRITERIA. WINDS AND SEAS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/DS
NEAR TERM...JC/DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...24/DS/NV/JC
HYDROLOGY...24/DS