Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 200239 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1039 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... COULD COVER WITH PASSING 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE...IS A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE THEN EXPECTED...SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. ALSO...WITH IR SATELLITE SHOWING HIGH CLOUDS WORKING UP FROM THE S...LIKELY TO ARRIVE AS MID DECK WITH SHORTWAVE EXITS...SHOULD HAVE LIMITED...IF ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT HAVE RAISED LOWS AND ELIMINATED FOG FROM THE FORECAST. TEMP SENSOR AT KLDJ (LINDEN) HAS BEEN REPORTED FOR FAA MAINTENANCE (TOO WARM). && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTHEAST - AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE APPROACH (THE SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT). BASED ON 09Z SREF AND 12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS...KEEPING IT DRY EXCEPT FOR ORANGE COUNTY AFT MIDNIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WE`LL HAVE TOMORROW...BUT AM THINKING CIRRUS WOULD BE THIN - THUS MOSTLY SUNNY. BLENDED MOS USED FOR TEMPS WITH LITTLE SPREAD SEEN. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... DEEP UPPER TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE NORTHEAST AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...POSSIBLY TOUCHING OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN ZONES. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES THEN MOVES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND MEANDERS THERE THIS WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS ON TAP FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. VSBYS BELOW 6SM STILL POSSIBLE AT SOME TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF THE CITY LATE...BUT CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT IS DIMINISHING AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS PUSH THROUGH AT LEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHT WINDS BCMG VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...AND THEN BRIEFLY EASTERLY WED MORNING. SE-S SEA BREEZES AT MOST TERMINALS LATE MORNING/AFTN. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THU THROUGH SUN... .THU NIGHT...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NYC METRO AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS. .FRI-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. && .MARINE... MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST CHANGES IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FT THIS WEEKEND. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS ON TAP THIS WEEKEND. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/TONGUE NEAR TERM...MALOIT SHORT TERM...TONGUE LONG TERM...MPS AVIATION...JC MARINE...MALOIT/MPS/TONGUE HYDROLOGY...TONGUE

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