Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 032339 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 739 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT THEN STALL ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... THE COLD FRONT IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST AND REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENTS REMAINS SCATTERED TO ISOLATED WITH A CAP IN PLACE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT...THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION SPLITS AROUND NYC AND LONG ISLAND WITH GREATER CHANCES TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. LOWERED THE POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL AND SIMILAR HUMIDITY AS MONDAY. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH BUILDS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...FORCING THE ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH LOWER DEW POINTS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. A SUBSEQUENT DECREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL BE FELT AS THIS OCCURS. BY MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID- WEST TREKKING EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AFFECTING THE AREA MAINLY FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE IT TRACKS AND THEREFORE HOW MUCH RAIN WE DO RECEIVE. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR MORE CERTAIN THAT A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS IN STORE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. ISENTROPIC LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW NOTED IN BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SO THINKING THIS WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM RAIN. SURFACE LOW CONTINUES ITS APPROACH FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS DIFFER IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW. THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS AGREE WITH THE LOW BEING OVER THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY 06Z SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. 12Z ECMWF TREKS THE LOW NORTHEAST IN SIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WHILE IT SLOWLY STRENGTHENS WHILE THE GFS WEAKENS THE LOW OVER THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE AND WEAKER WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT...WHILE THE 12Z CANADIAN IS AN OUTLIER BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THEREFORE...SIDED MORE ALONG THE LINES OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AND KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY LOW PRESSURE PUSHES AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS. OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN ON FRIDAY...NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE 70S REGION-WIDE. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES MAY PROVE TO BE A BIT LOWER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MOST OF THE SHRA/TSRA THAT WERE APPROACHING THE LOCAL AIRSPACE HAVE TAPERED OFF AND BECOME ISOLATED. WILL GO AHEAD AND REMOVE MENTION OF TSRA THIS EVENING FROM THE TAFS. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND WILL PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WILL TEMPO TSRA FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...FROM 06-09Z OVER FAR WESTERN TERMINALS TO 08-11Z OVER MOST EASTERN TERMINALS. WILL LEAVE OUT OF KGON FOR NOW...AS IT IS HARD TO TELL IF TSRA WILL MAKE IT THERE. SOUTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT THIS EVENING. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT. GRADIENT TIGHTENS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOCAL SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA WILL BE AFT 07Z. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA WILL BE AFT 07Z. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA WILL BE AFT 06Z. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA WILL BE AFT 06Z. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA WILL BE AFT 07Z. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA WILL BE AFT 08Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WED THROUGH SAT... .TUE NIGHT...SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS MAINLY CSTL TERMINALS IN THE EVENING. BECOMING VFR OVERNIGHT. SW FLOW BECOMING NW OVERNIGHT. .WED-THU...VFR. GENERALLY W FLOW. .FRI...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. WINDS BECOMING NE. .SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN. NE WINDS. && .MARINE... WIND AND SEAS FORECAST ON TRACK. UPDATED THE WEATHER FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FOR LOWER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT WELL WEST OF THE WATERS...THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...APPROACHING THE WATERS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STRONG INTO LATE TONIGHT BEFORE LIGHTENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER THE WATERS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER OR NEAR THE WATERS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN. && .HYDROLOGY... A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS. A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN WHERE AND WHEN THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL. ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD LIMIT FLOODING POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075- 080-081-178-179. HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MD/JP NEAR TERM...MET SHORT TERM...MD LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...MPS MARINE...MET HYDROLOGY...MD/JP

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