Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 190506 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 106 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT HAS PASSED SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SATURDAY...STALLING OVER OR NEAR THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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COLD FRONT IS JUST OFFSHORE AND WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. LOW CHANCE POPS WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES FILTERS INTO THE REGION. EXPECTING DEW POINTS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S. MAY SEE SEA BREEZES DEVELOP AT THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED SO FORECASTING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND MIDDLE 50S ACROSS LONG ISLAND. FOR NEW YORK CITY...LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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GLOBAL MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM SIGNIFYING A MEAN TROUGH GRADUALLY GIVING WAY TO RISING HEIGHTS. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC ON THU WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO SAT WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. MODELS ARE HINTING AT ISOLD CONVECTION FRI AFTN/EARLY EVE...BUT AM HAVING A HARD TIME FINDING A TRIGGER AND SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A MID LEVEL CAP SO HAVE REMOVED SCHC POPS. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE N ON SAT...ALTHOUGH EC HAS A MORE DEFINED SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND IS THEREFORE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL NEAR OR OVER THE LOCAL AREA SAT NIGHT INTO TUE. THE POTENTIAL FOR MCS/MCCS EXIST IF THE THE OPERATIONAL EC SOLN IS REALIZED AS WE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN JET. AS FOR TEMPS...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING RESULTING IN MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... RAIN CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW IN ITS WAKE...MVFR TO IFR CONDS IN STRATUS/BR CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. CIGS WILL DROP AS LOW AS 600 FT AWAY FROM KNYC TERMINALS...WHILE 800 FT CIGS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR COASTAL LOCATIONS. MOST AREAS WILL DROP TO 1500 FT OR SO. VFR RETURNS BETWEEN 10-12Z...THEN VFR ON TAP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. N/NE WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT BY 10Z...AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO TO AROUND 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT FROM AROUND 10Z TO 15Z. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY. .OUTLOOK FOR 03Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR. .SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAKER GUSTS ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL REMAIN UNDER SCA CRITERIA. WINDS AND SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE REMAINDER OF NIGHT. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...24/DS NEAR TERM...JC/DS/DW SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...24 AVIATION...MPS MARINE...24/DS/NV/JC HYDROLOGY...24/DS

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