Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 201856 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 256 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON MONDAY...AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... STILL SEEING BKN STRATOCU OVER MOST OF THE AREA...BUT THERE ARE SOME SIGNS IT COULD THIN OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL CLOUDS OUT OVER THE OCEAN SHOULD START STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH TOWARD EVENING...AND AS A SHOT OF LOW-MID LEVEL WAA AND A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASS ACROSS...THERE SHOULD BE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY PATCHY DRIZZLE LATE AS MID LEVELS DRY OUT BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS. NOT EXACTLY SURE WHERE FOCUS OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE...AS NAM/GFS WERE WERE TOO FAR WEST WITH EXTENT OF ONGOING PRECIP OFF THE DELMARVA...WHILE THE EARLIER SREF/ECMWF HANDLED THINGS A LITTLE BETTER THERE INITIALLY BUT STILL FCST SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MAINLY IN/NEAR NYC METRO TONIGHT INSTEAD OF A LITTLE FARTHER EAST. INSTABILITY INCREASES ALOFT LATE BUT MOSTLY AFTER DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT HAVE MOVED EAST.. SO NO MENTION OF THUNDER ATTM. LOWS TONIGHT ARE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN WAA TAKING PLACE...WITH NEAR 70 AT LGA...MID AND UPPER 60S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND AROUND 60 WELL INLAND. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BECOME HIGH WITH STRENGTHENING SE WINDS. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... SCT SHOWERS SHOULD BE AROUND MAINLY IN THE AM...WITH ISOLD THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE OVER ERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT...AS A WEAK NON- TROPICAL LOW PASSES JUST TO THE SE OF LONG ISLAND. HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH THIS LOW SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH WAA ON ITS EASTERN FLANK AND WELL OFFSHORE...SO DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL ATTM. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING BY AFTERNOON VIA SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...WHICH ALONG WITH WAA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER 80S IN MANY PLACES EXCEPT ERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT WHERE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART...AND IN THE HIGHER INTERIOR ELEVATIONS. PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THE COLD FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW CHANCE POP NW OF NYC AND SLIGHT CHANCE POP ELSEWHERE. AFTER FROPA EXPECT SOME CLEARING LATE AT NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY 55-60 INLAND...AND 60-65 IN NYC METRO AND ALONG THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING AT LEAST 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NO RAIN IS FORECAST DURING THIS TIME AS DRYING CONTINUES. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A WEAK COASTAL LOW MOVES TO EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MAINLY VFR UNTIL EARLY EVENING. BEST CHANCE MVFR TO GET STARTED IS KISP...AND COULD SEE CEILINGS DOWN AROUND 3000-3500 THROUGH 19-20Z AT KLGA/KEWR/KTEB/KHPN/KSWF. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP THIS EVENING. FOR NOW HAVE RESTRICTED IFR TO EASTERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHERE APPEARS BEST CHANCE OF -SHRA AND/OR DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL BUT KSWF BY AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY. SSE FLOW AROUND 10-15 KT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AT ALL BUT KSWF...WHERE WINDS MORE SW-SSW. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL BUT KSWF/KJFK/KHPN...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE AT THESE LOCATIONS. WINDS BACK TO THE SE-ESE AT UNDER 10 KT TONIGHT...WITH INLAND TERMINALS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS CONTINUE AS SUCH SUNDAY MORNING. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR...WITH ISOLD -SHRA WITH POSSIBLE MVFR FAR EASTERN TERMINALS. .SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. SCT -SHRA POSSIBLE. .MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE...BECOMING N MONDAY NIGHT. .TUESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... MAY BE A CLOSE CALL FOR SCA CONDS TONIGHT ON THE OCEAN AS SE FLOW PERSISTS AND GETS A LITTLE STRONGER. RIGHT NOW THINK WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY JUST BELOW CRITERIA...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDS SUNDAY NIGHT AS SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSING TO THE SE ARRIVE. SCA CONDS MAY CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN INTO MON NIGHT. THEN WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS ON TUE. THEN INCREASING E WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY WED AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. && .HYDROLOGY... LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A LOW MOVES OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$

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