Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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283 FXUS61 KOKX 050538 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 138 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK...AND THEN LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. OTHERWISE...AREA UNDER BROAD SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH A DEEPENING FULL LATITUDE TROF ACROSS THE TN AND OH VALLEYS...AND MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING SE OF THE AREA. THIS COUPLED WITH A COLD SFC HIGH ACROSS THE NE WILL ALLOW FOR OVERRUNNING RAIN/DRIZZLE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES OVERNIGHT...CONTINUED WEAK LIFT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A GRADUALLY BACKING NE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DRYING NEAR THE SFC. THUS...THERE IS NO MENTION OF FOG. SMALL DIURNAL RANGES IN THIS REGIME WILL RESULT IN LOWS NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS...IN THE 40S. STAYED CLOSE TO A MODEL CONSENSUS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... CONTINUED INCLEMENT WITH A SLOWLY PROGRESSING UPPER TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. CLOSED UPPER LOW DIGS SE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THU MORNING...AND THEN TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EVENING. MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SE OF THE AREA WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENING ACROSS THE NE. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...SFC-85H...WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK LIFT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. THERE IS REALLY NO DISCERNIBLE UPPER SUPPORT TO HONE IN ON AS FAR AS TIMING OF PCPN. GENERAL THEME IS WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT AND SHALLOW MOISTURE. HIGHS WILL BE A BIT WARMER ON THU WITH THE LOW-LEVEL COLD POOL GRADUALLY ERODING...WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. LOWS FRI NIGHT WILL AROUND 50. STAYED CLOSE TO A MOS CONSENSUS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THEN A BRIEF RESPITE EXPECTED FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. CLOSED H5 LOW WILL MEANDER FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE DELMARVA AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF SFC LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP AND LIFT THROUGH THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN FALLING FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. CLOSED LOW DEPARTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER H5 TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS WILL TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS THIS SYSTEM WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION. BASED ON CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE...CAN EXPECT RAIN TO END AND CLEARING TO BUILD INTO WESTERN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONDS DRY OUT THROUGHOUT SUNDAY EVENING. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. TEMPS RISE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON MONDAY...AND THEN SW FLOW SHOULD YIELD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRES LOOKS IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY LOOKING AT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT SOME ISOLATED LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. ALSO...SOME OF THE 00Z FORECAST GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT IN THE TAF QUITE YET...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR...HOWEVER SOME LOWER POCKETS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EARLY THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD..WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KT. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WIND GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL THROUGH 12Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH WIND FORECAST. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH CATEGORY FORECAST MAINLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS...WHICH COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OFF...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRI THROUGH MON... .THU NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...PERIODS OF RAIN/FOG/LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. NE WINDS G15-20 KT FRI. .SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD FINALLY BRING AN END TO DISMAL CONDITIONS...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AND NW WINDS G20KT. .MON...VFR. W WINDS G25KT POSSIBLE.
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&& .MARINE... THERE WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS DUE TO MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. SWELLS ON THE OCEAN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...KEEPING SEAS ON THE OCEAN AT OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW PRES PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS. CONDS FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA LEVELS EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH OF THE OCEAN WATERS. && .HYDROLOGY... POTENTIAL FOR A QUARTER TO HALF INCH THIS EVENING ACROSS LI/SRN CT. OTHERWISE...VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS FORECAST TO RECEIVE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. 1/4 TO 1/2" QPF POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... THE HIGHEST SPRING TIDE OF THE YEAR IS APPROACHING WITH THE NEW MOON ON FRIDAY. THE THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HIGH TIDES THROUGH FRIDAY...AND LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND. PERIODIC NE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEEK AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE WAVES WILL PREDICATE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING...BUT THE THREAT IS THERE PARTICULARLY FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND/QUEENS. TIDES WILL PEAK AT MINOR LEVELS ACROSS COASTAL FAIRFIELD AND COASTAL WESTCHESTER BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WATER LEVELS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH MINOR COASTAL FLOOD LEVELS IN A FEW WESTERN LI SOUTH SHORE BAY LOCALES WITH THU MORNING AND FRI MORNING HIGH TIDES. FOR THURSDAY EVENINGS HIGH TIDE...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE AROUND 1/4-1/2 FT HIGHER THAN THIS EVENING...WHILE TIDAL DEPARTURES SHOULD REMAIN AROUND THE SAME LEVELS AS THIS EVENING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS THE VULNERABLE LOCALES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF WESTERN LI/NYC AND WESTERN LI SOUND AND NY/NJ HARBOR. AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE MOST VULNERABLE SOUTH SHORE BAY LOCALES OF WESTERN GREAT SOUTH BAY TO HIT MODERATE FLOOD THRESHOLDS THU EVE...BUT THIS IS A LOW PROB AT THIS TIME. MINOR FLOOD LEVELS WILL BE APPROACHED AND POSSIBLY LOCALLY TOUCHED ACROSS THE REMAINING EASTERN COASTAL AREAS. FOR FRIDAY EVE HIGH TIDES...WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AS ASTRO TIDES PEAK AND SURGE LIKELY REMAINS STEADY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IN VULNERABLE SOUTH SHORE BAYS LOCALES OF WESTERN LI AND QUEENS AT THAT TIME WITH ONLY 1 TO 1 1/4 FT SURGE NEEDED IN SPOTS. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR CTZ009-010. NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ071-078-177. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ074-075-178-179. NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ006-106-108. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MPS/DW NEAR TERM...FEB/NV/DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...MPS AVIATION...BC MARINE...FEB/MPS/NV/DW HYDROLOGY...MPS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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