Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 292357 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 757 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL THEN AFFECT THE NORTHEAST DURING MID WEEK... FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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WITH A SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING WAS TRIGGERING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY INTO SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. OTHER VORT MAXES WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE SHORTWAVE LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES ACROSS MUCH OF CONNECTICUT AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT NOW STRETCHING FROM SRN NH INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN MA CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD AND PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE E-NE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ALOFT WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH ON TUE...AND AHEAD OF A MORE POTENT UPPER LOW APCHG FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE DAY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...SHOULD MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS THROUGH THE PD. E-NE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL ALSO PERSIST...WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO BUT STILL A COUPLE OF DEG ABOVE AVG. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHRTWV DROPPING INTO NRN MN WILL PASS THRU THE CWA AS A CLOSED H5 LOW ON WED. 12Z MODEL TIMING IS CONSISTENT AMONG THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF. H85-H5 LAPSE RATES IN THE 5-6C/KM RANGE. DPVA SHOULD BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE WEAK CAP AROUND H7. AS A RESULT...WILL FCST SCT SHWRS WED...ENDING FROM W TO E WED NGT AS THE UPR LOW SLOWLY EXITS. DEPTH OF CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLD LIGHTNING FLASH...ESPECIALLY OVER OR INVOF THE WATER WHERE THE WARM AND MOIST BL WILL YIELD A SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE COLUMN. SFC RIDGING EXTENDS SWD FROM ERN CANADA THU AND FRI. THIS WILL KEEP A COOL NE-LY FLOW IN PLACE PRODUCING SEASONAL TEMPS. A MOIST MARINE LAYER BLW THE DRY MID AND UPR LVLS WITH SUBSIDENCE...SO THE SETUP WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO ANY CONVECTION OR SIGNIFICANT PCPN. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN AREAS OF DZ. HAVE INCLUDED CHC SPRINKLES WHERE THE GREATEST POOLING OF LLVL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ATTM. MAIN PCPN EVEN IN THE LONG RANGE IS TAKING SHAPE FOR SAT. THE PRIMARY DRIVER IS A STRONG UPR LOW OVER AK WHICH WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE PERIOD. STRONG RETURN FLOW FRI NGT PRODUCES GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA FOR SAT. THE ASSOCIATED CDFNT AND UPR DYNAMICS THEN PRODUCE A ROUND OF RAIN ON SAT. HAVE INCLUDED LIKELY POPS IN THE FCST. DRY ON SUN. A BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATES TEMPS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S. AS THE BROAD UPR LOW/TROF REACHES THE AREA AROUND MON...THERE IS THE CHC THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP IN RESPONSE. ECMWF HAD A SFC LOW SPINNING UP...AND THE GFS HAS COLD POOL TYPE SHWRS. HAVE INCLUDED SCHC POPS AND CLOUDY SKIES AS A RESULT. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A WEAK COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES SOUTHWEST THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. VFR. A FEW SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. MVFR STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EXPECTED TO DRIFT SW INTO KGON AND LIKELY INTO KISP/KBDR/KHPN OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE LOW ON WHETHER MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPS INTO NYC METRO TERMINALS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. STRATUS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT POTENTIAL FOR IT TO LINGER ACROSS CT TERMINALS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING...BECOMING E/NE IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT. E/NE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .TUE NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS POSSIBLE. CHC -SHRA E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT. .WED...CHC MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT. .THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT. .FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT. .SAT...RAIN LIKELY. CHC MVFR OR LOWER. SW WINDS AM BECMG WNW PM. GUSTS 20-25KT POSSIBLE.
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&& .MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TUE. PERSISTENT/INCREASING E-NE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SCA CONDS TUE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATE. TOO EARLY TO ISSUE SCA FOR THIS TIME FRAME. THESE CONDS COULD CONTINUE INTO THU...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN AND THE ERN SOUND/BAYS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL DECREASE ON FRI...ONLY TO RAPIDLY BUILD AGAIN ON SAT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A CDFNT. WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS ON SUNDAY ATTM. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WED-WED NGT. UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON SAT. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/MET SHORT TERM...GOODMAN LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...NV MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/MET HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN

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