Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 231919 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 318 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE TRACKS NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND REACHES THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE LOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION TO START THE NEW WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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STACKED LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK THIS EVENING BEFORE PICKING UP FORWARD MOTION TO NE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE TRI STATE AREA...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING A LITTLE LATE AT NIGHT. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AREAS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TONIGHT WILL NOT EXTEND AS FAR WEST FROM THE CENTER OF THE STORM AS IT HAS OVER THE PAST DAY OR TWO. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS...HIGHEST OVER LONG ISLAND AND CT...WITH THE RAINFALL THREAT ENDING WEST OF THESE AREAS BY SUNRISE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE A SHOWER IN SPOTS OVER CT AND EASTERN LI FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE....DRY ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. HIGHER CLOUD COVER WILL BE GENERALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN HALF. CLOUDS AND WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT. MAV/NAM MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS WEEKEND. CLOSER TO OUR REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH DRY...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. STRONG NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND THE MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NANTUCKET WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST...PASSING EAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST FRIDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THE LOW SLOWLY TRACKS AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON CEILINGS HAVE BECOME VARIABLE FROM MVFR TO VFR...WITH CEILINGS RANGING FROM AROUND 1500 TO 3500 FT. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRONG AND GUSTY N TO NW WIND 15 TO 20 KT...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE GUSTS ENDING AFTER 05Z. VFR FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVEMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVEMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS LIKELY INTO THIS EVENING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS EVENING. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. NW WIND G20-25KT. .FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. A TIGHT NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS LIKELY...AND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 35 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS FOR A BRIEF TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SEAS TO ALSO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW WEEK. NEXT CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE ON AVERAGE THIS EVENING WILL BE A QUARTER TO HALF FOOT LOWER THAN THIS MORNING. IN SPITE OF SOME LONG PERIOD SE SWELLS DEVELOPING...THE LOWER ASTRONOMICAL TIDE COMBINED WITH A PROLONGED MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BACKS OF LONG ISLAND AND QUEENS. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338- 340-345. GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/JC NEAR TERM...JC SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...MET MARINE...BC/JC HYDROLOGY...BC/JC TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JC

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