Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KOKX 260259
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1059 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016
A cold front moves through the region overnight. High pressure
builds to the west Tuesday and moves off the southeast coast
Wednesday into Thursday. A weak cold front approaches the region
Friday and will linger into the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
The area of showers continues to move quickly east and south and
updated grids to end precipitation sooner. Rain cooled, and
humid, airmass remains across the region ahead of a cold front.
The front at 02z was still across upstate New York. The front is
forecast to move through after 06Z. Drier air moves in behind the
cold front with dew points lowering into the lower and mid 60s.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Quasizonal flow prevails as cold front settles just east and high
pressure builds. With 850 hpa temps still running in the high
teens...deep mixing...downslope flow and full sunshine...expect
temps to quickly rise into the lower to mid 90s. Noticeably lower
dewpoints should keep heat indices close to air temps...but close
enough for heat advisory for NYC metro. Sea breezes should be
limited to late day and immediate south coasts...if at all.
High pressure builds Tuesday night. Lows range from the lower 60s
well inland to the lower 70s in and around NYC metro.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Dry Wednesday and Wednesday night as high pressure builds, and
zonal flow aloft remains.
Sfc front approaches Thursday ahead of mid/upper level weak
trough, and it appears that the upper trough amplifies just a
bit. The front may settle nearby through the weekend. This sets
the stage for unsettled weather with chances for showers and
thunderstorms through Sunday.
Temperatures will average above normal Wednesday and Thursday,
then temperatures settle back closer to normal thereafter.
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Showers have ended with mainly VFR conditions in place. The
exception is some isolated IFR/MVFR late tonight into early
Tuesday with perhaps some patchy fog overnight into early Tuesday
morning outside of the city terminals. VFR returns for all
terminals Tuesday by mid morning and continues through the rest of
Regarding winds overall, SW-W flow less than 10 kt for the city
terminals with light and variable winds under 6 kt elsewhere. Winds
switch to more of a westerly flow 5-10 kt Tuesday with gusts
between 15-20 kt in the afternoon.
.OUTLOOK FOR 03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.Tuesday Night-Early Thursday Afternoon...VFR.
.Mid-Late Thursday Afternoon-Saturday...MVFR or lower possible
with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
-- End Changed Discussion --
A cold front approaches the waters, then slowly moves through the
waters after 06z. High pressure builds behind the front Tuesday
and Wednesday. A Frontal boundary then approaches and remains
nearby through the remainder of the week.
Sub SCA conditions are expected through the remainder of the
Precipitation will be exiting the eastern zones by 06Z with a few
hundredths of an inch of rainfall.
There is the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms,
across the area Thursday through the weekend.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for NYZ072>075-176-