Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 021219 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 819 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT. THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN APPROACHES FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO ADJUST POPS AND CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. LOOKING UPSTREAM...ACTIVITY IS MINIMAL WITH A FEW AREAS OF RAIN ON THE REGIONAL RADAR THIS MORNING. EVEN THE BAND THAT EXTENDS FROM THE MID HUDSON VALLEY OF NEW YORK STATE BACK THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA HAS EVEN BEEN WEAKENING THIS MORNING. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE THETA-E AXIS SHIFTING SE. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHC ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AND ALSO ADDED DRIZZLE. THE AFTERNOON REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS SOME OF THE MODELS BREAK OFF A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE CUTOFF LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE SE AND TRACK IT UP THE COAST. THERE IS SOME HINT OF THIS ON WATER VAPOR AND EVEN SOME RAIN OCCURRING AS A RESULT IN THE CAROLINAS...BUT THINK THE QPF FIELDS ARE OVERDOING THE AMOUNTS UP HERE AS WE WILL REMAIN ON THE MORE STABLE SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH NE FLOW. EVEN THOUGH PWATS REMAIN HIGH...AND THERE COULD BE SOME MODERATE SHOWERS WITH ANY ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...FEEL THAT THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS ENDED SO HAVE CANCELLED THE WATCH. HAVE ALSO LOWERED QPF AMOUNTS SIGNIFICANTLY. SHOWERS...CLOUDS...AND A NORTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. 60 MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST NJ.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DECREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH AWAY FROM THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A NORTHEAST FLOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. CONDITIONS WILL BE WARMER ON WEDNESDAY...MIDDLE 60S TO NEAR 70. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NOAM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE BEGIN TO BECOME APPARENT IN THE NORTHERN STREAM ON SAT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED NIGHT AND SLOWLY TRACK EWD. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC/SE STATES WILL SLOWLY TRACK TOWARDS THE COAST. THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING PCPN FROM A WEAK SFC LOW/INVERTED TROUGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE AREA THU/THU NIGHT...BUT THINK THIS IS TOO QUICK WITH RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE STILL NOSING IN FROM THE E/NE. HAVE LOWERED POPS AS A RESULT. BY FRI...THE HIGH SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO ALLOW SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE AREA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING UP THE COAST FROM THE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY WIDESPREAD WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. FRI NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH SERN CANADA WILL TRACK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL APPROACH FRI NIGHT. HAVE THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA INTO SAT...BUT THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT IS WASHES OUT BEFORE MAKING IT THROUGH. HIGH PRES WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THEN BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE N FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL WED NIGHT AND THU WITH ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ARE THEN FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE DELMARVA TO SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND CAPE COD WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BUILDS SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING...WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES VARYING FROM IFR TO MARGINAL VFR WITH LIGHT RAIN AND FOG. BY LATE MORNING CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINAL VFR WITH VFR VISIBILITIES. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN INTO MID AFTERNOON. WIND WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST...030 TO 060 TRUE...10 TO 15 KT. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF CHANGING CONDITIONS. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING...COULD BE SLOWER THAN FORECAST. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING...COULD BE SLOWER THAN FORECAST. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING...COULD BE SLOWER THAN FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME IFR THROUGH 15Z...OTHERWISE CEILINGS REMAIN MARGINAL VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MARGINAL VFR THIS MORNING...AND COULD BE SLOWER THAN FORECAST. HOWEVER...VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE TO AT LEAST MARGINAL VFR TO VFR FIRST...AROUND 12Z. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF IMPROVEMENTS. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING...COULD BE SLOWER THAN FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR. .FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS. .SATURDAY...SHOWERS ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.
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&& .MARINE... SCA E/NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT AND WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT ON THE OCEAN. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE EAST. WINDS AND SEAS MAY CONTINUE TO REACH SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. THE GRADIENT RELAXES THEREAFTER WITH SUB-ADVSY CONDS ON ALL WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. && .HYDROLOGY...
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ADDITIONAL BASIN AVG QPF OF UP TO 1/4 INCH IS EXPECTED TODAY. THE STILL RIVER AT BROOKVILLE IN NORTHERN FAIRFIELD COUNTY REMAINS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE WITH MINOR FLOODING FORECAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO FALL BACK WITHIN ITS BANKS THIS MORNING. NO ADDITIONAL HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL (GREATER THAN 1/2 INCH) IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353- 355.
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&& $$

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