Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 222048 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 448 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE PARENT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LINGER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY EXIT FARTHER EAST WHILE DEEPENING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE DEPARTING LOW AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE FAIR WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... CONVECTION STARTING TO BUILD IN WESTERN PA ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT. ITS PARENT LOW IS ALSO IN THE PROCESS OF DEEPENING IN NORTHERN NY STATE. THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THIS EVENING WITH DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING IN BEHIND IT. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY AS DIAGNOSED FROM LIFTED INDICES A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO...MOSTLY FOR THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...AND NYC. THERE IS ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS WELL AS SHOWN BY MUCAPE PLOTS FROM THE HRRR. THEREFORE THERE IS GOING TO BE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ALONG WITH THAT...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE SHOWERS END FOR MUCH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT INTERIOR AND EASTERN ZONES COULD SEE A LINGERING SHOWER OR TWO INTO DAYBREAK BUT CHANCES WILL BE LOWERING QUITE A BIT. MIN TEMPS WERE A BLEND OF NAM12/GFS40 AND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... BEHIND THE COLD FRONT A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD IN THOUGH WITH THE PARENT LOW STILL PRETTY STRONG FOR SPRING WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 995MB ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS DEEPENS APPROXIMATELY 5 MB THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NW FLOW DEVELOPS. THE GUSTY NW FLOW INCREASES TOWARDS EVENING WITH THE STRONGER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS SLOWLY PUSHES FARTHER EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH DESPITE THE ENTRANCE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET/NAM12 FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL BY SEVERAL DEGREES...MORE SO AT NIGHT. ALSO...STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ANOTHER VORT MAX MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH ITS UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND CLOSER PROXIMITY OF LEFT FRONT QUAD WILL CREATE VERTICAL FORCING. HENCE...SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MORE THE FAR NORTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE COMPETING A CONTINUING DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH NW FLOW. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE OCCLUDED LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO ACT AS A WIND MACHINE OVER THE REGION THU...WITH DEEP MIXING AND BORDERLINE WIND ADVY CONDITIONS THE RESULT. 50 KT WINDS RELEGATED TO AOA H85 PER THE 12Z MODEL DATA...AS A RESULT CAPPED GUSTS AT 45 MPH. DEEP SUBSIDENCE SHOULD RESULT IN A COMPLETELY SUNNY DAY. THE WINDS WILL CALM DOWN ON FRI AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CWA. TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH A WARMER AIRMASS IN PLACE. THE ONSET OF SEA BREEZE FLOW AND RETURN SLY FLOW SHOULD ACTUALLY KEEP THE S COASTS COOLER THAN THU. WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTN...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHRA. THE GFS IS THE FASTED AND MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS...AND IF THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE CORRECT A COMPLETELY DRY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED. ONLY 20 POPS IN THE FCST ATTM. MODEL TIMING IS BETTER WITH AN UPR WAVE AND PERIOD OF LGT RAIN FRI NGT INTO SAT. HIGH CHC POPS FOR THIS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME HINT OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AS THE WAVE TRACKS OFFSHORE...SPINNING SOME LGT PCPN IN FROM THE N SAT NGT AND SUN. LOW CHC POPS MAINTAINED IN THE FCST DUE TO THE GFS CONSISTENCY. FOR MON AND TUE...THE GFS IS COMPLETELY DRY WITH HIGH PRES RIDGING SWD FROM CANADA. THE ECMWF HOWEVER HAS BROUGHT THE WARM/STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FURTHER NWD INTO THE REGION...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE OVC WX WITH CHCS FOR RAIN. THE FCST SIDES WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT DRY SOLNS OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. && .AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING. VFR. HOWEVER...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN THE 23Z TO 1Z TIME FRAME IN MODERATE SHOWERS. LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER. ANY THUNDER WILL BE ISOLATED...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST AFTER COLD FRONT 1-3Z. NW WINDS OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...NW WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY 20 TO 30 KTS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AFTER 12Z. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE UNLIKELY. WIND AT THE AIRPORT PREDOMINATELY 270-300 DEGREES MAG. WIND MAY BECOME MORE 250 AND BECOME LIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: STRONG SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLOWLY AFTER 6 PM. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO AROUND 20 KT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHERLY WIND CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO AROUND 20 KT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTH WIND CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .WED AFTERNOON...VFR. NW G30-35KT. .THU...VFR. NW G30KT. .FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/EVE -SHRA AND MVFR. .SAT-SUN...MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER IT WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHC -SHRA AND POSSIBLE MVFR AT TIMES.
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&& .MARINE... SUB SCA TONIGHT...THOUGH SOME OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON OCEAN. GALES WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SLOW PROGRESSION OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT CREATING TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE COULD BE SOME PERIODS WHERE WINDS ARE BELOW GALES EARLY WEDNESDAY. GALES LIKELY TO CONTINUE THRU THU WITH LOW PRES S OF THE MARITIMES. THE LOW DEPARTS WITH WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS FRI. WIND AND SEAS COME UP SAT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON SUN WITH NLY FLOW...THEN HIPRES ON MON. && .FIRE WEATHER... WEDNESDAY...MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME SPOTS REACHING DOWN TO 30 PERCENT. THIS COMBINED WITH WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH WILL CREATE SOME ENHANCED FIRE SPREAD CONDITIONS BUT NOT QUITE AS PROMINENT AND PRONOUNCED AS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. PLUS...THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY WHICH FURTHER LIMITS FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY. STRONG NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH AND MIN RH FALLING INTO THE TEENS IN SPOTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON THU. CONSULTATION WITH LAND MANAGERS INDICATES THAT VENTILATION ON WED SHOULD PRIME THE FUELS FOR THU...EVEN IF 1/4 INCH OF RAIN OR MORE OCCURS THRU TNGT. AS A RESULT...A FIRE WX WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THU. && .HYDROLOGY... AREAL QPF FOR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH TONIGHT IS UP TO 1/4 INCH. A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FRI NGT AND SAT. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CTZ005>012. NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179. NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-103>108. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM NEAR TERM...JM SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...MET/PW MARINE...JMC/JM FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM

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