Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 140611 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 111 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Strong low pressure continues moving into the Canadian Maritimes tonight as a Clipper low approaches from the west. This low quickly moves south of Long Island Thursday morning and offshore Thursday afternoon. High pressure builds from the west Thursday night. A series of weak low pressure and frontal systems will pass through Friday through early next week, with high pressure building between each. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Minor updates were made to reflect the latest conditions. Light snow will continue to overspread the area through the overnight hours. Forecast appears on track. A winter weather advisory remains in effect for Long Island through 10am this morning. A special weather statement has been issued elsewhere, which highlights lower snow accumulation. Some impacts to the morning commute are anticipated, especially in the advisory area as temperatures during the early morning hours will be in the upper teens inland and lower to middle 20s closer to the coast. Main vort max associated with the clipper will swing around the base of the mean upper trough and enhance lift, especially 09z- 12z. The surface low translates south of the area during this time, which could help to enhance snowfall on Long Island. These features quickly translate east as the upper trough, vort max, and surface low move offshore 13-15z. Lift all also be maximized in the dendritic growth zone between 750 and 900 mb from around 09z to 13z across eastern Long Island. Models have continued to come into better agreement with the above scenario with the biggest uncertainty lies within the mesoscale details, mainly across Long Island. Latest thinking is for around a tenth of an inch of liquid across the interior, increasing to around two tenths across Long Island. There may be a shadow effect over NYC and NE NJ as the surface low moves downslope of the higher terrain to the west. For snowfall accumulation, 2 to 3 inches are forecast in the advisory area across Long Island with 1 to 2 inches elsewhere. There could be locally higher amounts with any enhancement or banding on Long Island, so it would not be surprising if a few spots reach closer to 4 inches. SREF plumes, NAM, NAM-3km, and HRRR all support this forecast thinking. The snow should be a higher ratio, powdery snow, potentially around 15:1 near the coast and 17-18:1 across the interior. The snow ends on the east end around 15z with skies quickly clearing from west to east. It will become breezy as high pressure builds in from the west Thursday afternoon. Highs well below normal in the upper 20s and lower 30s are forecast. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... High pressure settles over the Tri-State Thursday night. With light winds, mostly clear skies, cold airmass, and some snowpack on the ground, temperatures should bottom out in the lower teens inland and middle and upper teens elsewhere. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... First upper shortwave in a progressive pattern dives across the Great Lakes region Friday. Sfc low passes across the Great Lakes region as offshore low develops well southeast of the area late Friday and Friday night out ahead of the shortwave energy. Some light snow is possible, with the bulk of the associated QPF remaining offshore, and to our NW, closer to the inland parent low. This shortwave passes Saturday as ridge builds, and remains in control through much of the weekend. Thereafter, the forecast is much more uncertain. Downstream shortwave begins to make eastward progresses as ridge flattens. Weak PVA noted in fast zonal flow approaching area Sunday night, which could trigger some light precip. Then, operational ECMWF remains a fast and stronger outlier as this mid west shortwave moves east. This would result in higher precip chances Monday when compared to GFS and Canadian NH. For Tuesday, northern stream shortwave approaches, with GFS picking up the mid west shortwave as well, about 24 hours after ECMWF. All in all, minimal chance for precip is forecast Monday through Tuesday, and possibly into Wednesday, but still plenty of time to iron out the details. Chilly temperatures Friday and Saturday gradually warm closer to normal as zonal flow or weak ridging develops. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MVFR/IFR in snow overnight into mid morning Thursday with low passing just south of Long Island. KISP could see some LIFR or VLIFR conditions briefly Thursday morning. VFR then returns for Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. Snow accumulation is expected to be 1-3 inches. W winds diminishing with a few isolated gusts to 15 kt, but most gusts have ended. Winds will shift to SW ahead of low overnight and then shift to the W Thursday behind the low with gusts redeveloping in the late morning and afternoon to 20-25 kt. Wind gusts diminish Thursday evening. Wind direction could vary early Thursday with low center in close proximity. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .Thursday night-Friday...VFR. .Friday night...VFR. W winds G15-20KT develop towards early Saturday morning. .Saturday-Saturday night...VFR. WNW winds G20-25KT daytime and G15- 20KT evening. .Sunday...Mainly VFR. .Sunday night and Monday...MVFR or lower flight cat possible in snow/rain. && .MARINE... Seas at the Central LI Sound buoy were around 3 ft lower than forecast, and have been modified to better reflect current conds. They will subside over the next 3-4 hours as the pressure gradient weakens and winds diminish. Have pushed the end time on Eastern LI Sound and Peconic and Gardiners Bays an hour to give a little bit of padding, but expecting sub-SCA conds by 4am. Seas though will stay up on the ocean through at least the day. Gusts should increase again later today behind departing Clipper low. SCA gusts are possible on the ocean. On Friday, high pressure builds and passes east. Light winds and tranquil seas are expected as a result. Low pressure develops Friday night just east of the waters and deepens as it departs Saturday, with increasing westerly winds, and building seas expected behind it. Winds abate and seas subside as high pressure builds Saturday night through Sunday. Some uncertainty in the forecast exists for Monday as a frontal system could impact the waters. However, will forecast sub SCA winds this time frame as this scenario remains in question. Seas remain under 5 ft. && .HYDROLOGY... No significant hydrologic impacts expected. && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) is off the air for an extended period of time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ078>081-177-179. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for ANZ330-340. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350- 353-355. && $$

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