Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 250851 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 451 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will remain to the south today. A weakening front will approach tonight, then move across on Friday, followed by high pressure this weekend. A cold front will approach early next week, and may then linger nearby through Wednesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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High pressure will remain anchored offshore while an upper level disturbance approaches from the west. Expect high and mid level clouds to increase mainly NW of NYC into early this afternoon, then enough deeper moisture and lift associated with the disturbance to arrive NW of NYC for scattered showers. Instability will be marginal, so mentioned only slight chance of thunder north and west. Expect temperatures to be slightly warmer than those of yesterday, with mid/upper 80s in most place, perhaps touching 90 in NYC and urban NE NJ. Sea breezes along the coast will be stronger than those of yesterday as well, reaching 15-20 mph along most of the south shore of Long Island, and 20-25 mph along the south shores of NYC and Nassau County. This will promote a high rip current risk at the ocean beaches this afternoon and early this evening.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
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Will have 20-30 PoP tonight for isolated-scattered showers and perhaps some isolated tstms as this first upper level disturbance moves across during the first half of tonight, then as a slow moving frontal boundary approaches NW sections late tonight. With cloud cover and increasing dewpoints expect low temps to be closer to the high end of guidance, with lower and mid 70s. The front will drop into the area through the day on Friday, with once again isolated-scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Chances for thunder look best across SE CT, and with enough deep layer shear expect any storms that develop there could produce gusty winds. High temps ahead of the front will reach 90-95 across a good deal of the area, which in combination with dewpoints rising to the lower 70s should yield heat index values at least in the mid 90s. NYC, urban NE NJ, and the Hudson/CT river valleys could see heat index values close to 100, and a heat advisory could be needed for Fri afternoon.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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NWP guidance is in good agreement across North America at H5 into Sunday...then differences begin to develop with the progression and amplitude of a northern stream trough tracking through the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes in response to downstream ridging. Meanwhile, a strong mid level anticyclone over the Mid Atlantic Fri night will remain nearly stationary through the weekend before weakening and drifting back into the Tennessee Valley early to mid next week. At the surface, a weak cool front should push south of Long Island Fri night with a northerly flow and high pressure in its wake. H85 temps drop to 14-16C by Sat aftn (as opposed to 17-18C on Fri). Mixing to around this level should yield max temps in the mid to upper 80s across the area. Flow should also be light enough during the aftn for seabreeze development at the coast. The high tracks east of New England on Sunday. Another sunny day with onshore flow will limit mixing, especially at the coast with slightly lower max temps. Highs should range from lower to mid 80s...with the exception of urbanized NY/NJ where mid to upper 80s will be common. Weak low pressure will track from the Great Lakes Sun morning to northern New England by Mon morning. The associated warm front lifts north late Sun/Sun night with a waa pattern ensuing. The heat and humidity returns on Mon as a cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. Not much pcpn expected as the majority of the upper level dynamics passes well to the north and the front runs into strong subsidence. The front then stalls nearby with perhaps a few showers Tue and Wed in response to ripples of vort energy and a few passing jet streaks aloft.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pressure off the Northeast coast slowly moves east through tonight, giving way to a weak frontal system approaching from the Ohio Valley. A pre-frontal trough will approach from the west this afternoon. VFR through the TAF period. There is a low chance of showers northwest of the New York City during the afternoon and early evening hours. Winds generally SSW less then 10 KT, to light and variable at outlying early this morning. Winds increase during the late morning hours and become southerly. Gusts up to 20KT possible near the coast. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Possible gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. KLGA TAF Comments: Onset of gusts may be as early as 15Z. KEWR TAF Comments: Onset of gusts may be as early as 15Z. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: Onset of gusts may be as early as 15Z. KHPN TAF Comments: Possible gusts of 15-18 kt late this morning into this afternoon. KISP TAF Comments: Onset of gusts may be as early as 15Z. .Outlook for 06Z Friday through Monday... .Thursday night-Friday...Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers with MVFR conditions. Isolated thunder possible on Friday. .Friday night-Monday...VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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Winds on the waters have been running higher than model forecasts. Expect this trend to continue through tonight, with SW-S flow on the ocean increasing to 15-20 kt and some gusts 25-30 kt by late afternoon into tonight, pushing seas up to 5 ft. These winds should be highest in the NY bight late this afternoon and early this evening as a coastal jet develops. Have issued SCA for the ocean waters, for west of Fire Island Inlet beginning late this afternoon, and then farther east early this evening. Both run through tonight. Sub-advy conds generally prevail otherwise. However, potential remains for long period SE tropical swell on the ocean late this weekend and early next week. Seas could build to 5-6 ft Sunday through Tue.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... No significant widespread precipitation is expected into next week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ355. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Goodman/24 NEAR TERM...Goodman SHORT TERM...Goodman LONG TERM...24 AVIATION...DW MARINE...Goodman/24 HYDROLOGY...Goodman/24

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