Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KOKX 220805 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 405 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Dry and mild today as high pressure pulls away from the region. The weather then becomes rather unsettled for Tuesday and Wednesday with potentially heavy rain. Relatively strong gust winds are likely on Tuesday. Dry weather returns for late week into the weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Some patchy/localized radiation fog is likely in the valleys and Pine Barrens, but believe is will not be extensive enough to included in the forecast grids - at least at this time. Other than some gradual increase in cirrus - looks like a fine day with temps still about 15 degrees above normal in the mid to upper 70s. Forecasting 1 degree short of the Record at KBDR - elsewhere we`ll fall 5 to 10 degrees short. GFS/ECMWF MOS Blend used which seems to work very well on Saturday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low level moisture increases tonight with a light SE flow. Models suggest stratus moving in with better chances of at least a broken deck occurring west of eastern LI and CT. This leads to a partly to mostly cloudy Monday. There appears to be enough isentropic and low level lift for a chance of a sprinkle in the afternoon as there`s significant subsidence above 800 hPa causing stratocu to spread. Highs will still range mostly 70-75.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
NWP remains on track with a deep upper level trough with strong meridional flow approaching the region Monday night as the jet dives into the Southeast. The question that remains is the timing of the very slow moving frontal passage. The GEFS has about 10 members that support the slower deterministic ECMWF timing. Thus, a good chance for rain to continue through Wednesday especially on Long Island and CT. Then, mainly dry weather is expected by Thursday night through next weekend. Winds are a potential issue Tuesday through Tuesday evening. There is a low level jet ahead of the cold front and the models have pretty good agreement with the 50-60 KT magnitude. Thinking of gusts of 35 to perhaps 45 KT. Have kept the TSTMs for Tue AFTN and Evening with potential for long narrow CAPE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR expected through at least 03z Mon with high pres OHD gradually moving east through tonight. There is a low chance of MVFR-IFR fog through 12z at KSWF/KHPN/KGON/KISP. Light and variable winds through the remainder of the night. S/SE winds 8-12 kt develop later this morning and afternoon with seabreeze enhancement at coastal terminals. Aft 03z tonight, the second night of onshore flow, may start seeing indications of fog and/or stratus development, however timing and extent of MVFR/IFR conds is uncertain attm. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .Late Sun night-Mon...MVFR/IFR possible in stratus and fog into Mon morning, then VFR. S/SE G20 kt Mon aftn. .Mon night-Tue...Potential a period of S/SE G30-40 KT with LLWS SSW 45-55kt@2kft for coastal terminals. Could occur during morning push. MVFR/IFR developing in -RADZ Monday night, continuing with SHRA and low prob/sparse TSRA Tuesday. .Tue night-Wed...IFR possibly continues in showers Tue night...improving to MVFR Wed. .Wed night-Thu...VFR, with iso-sct MVFR in SHRA. W/NW wind. && .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Quiet conds on all waters through Mon as high pressure over the area slowly shifts east. The pressure gradient will begin to tighten on Mon as low pressure strengthens over the Great Lakes. SCA conds are expected to develop Mon night with the potential for gale force gusts Tue into Tue night, all waters. The gale potential will depend on mixing over the waters, but should be able to mix down 35-40kt forecast at 1000mb, especially over the ocean. Winds just off the deck may be slightly weaker on the non- ocean waters and gales may only occur with any heavier showers/tstms. Winds will slowly diminish from W to E Tue night, and the progression of the front/LLJ will determine the end time for the SCA/gale hazards. May need to keep headlines up into Wed for the eastern waters. Seas on the ocean are forecast to remain above 5 ft through Thu, due to a SE swell from a good fetch around the departing high. This could be overdone however.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
Expect nuisance urban ponding late Tuesday into Wednesday, especially across the NY Metro, Long Island and Southern CT. Storm total of 1.5 to 3" now expected, but flash and river flooding are not anticipated.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Tongue NEAR TERM...Tongue SHORT TERM...Tongue LONG TERM...Tongue AVIATION...24 MARINE...24 HYDROLOGY...Tongue

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.