Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 231104 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 704 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN EAST ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL DRIFT UP TOWARDS THE REGION FOR THE MID WEEK AND THEN OUT TO SEA FOR LATE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SHORTWAVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH SE CANADA TODAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. N/NW FLOW THIS MORNING WILL SUBSIDE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LATE DAY SEABREEZE ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST. DEEP NW FLOW SHOULD LIMIT CLOUD COVER TO JUST FEW-SCT INSTABILITY CU ACROSS INTERIOR. TEMPS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE WITH MIXING LIMITED UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND RECENT SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR. TEMPS GENERALLY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES THIS MORNING DUE TO RESIDUAL SE SWELLS. THE THREAT LIKELY TRANSITIONS TO LOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SWELLS SUBSIDE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A CUTOFF SOUTHERN UPPER LOW SHEARING NE AROUND WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGING ON WED. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE NE TONIGHT. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS FOR FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...WITH LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS INTERIOR AND PINE BARRENS...AND LOWER TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE. IF NE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK...A FEW UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR/PINE BARRENS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE JUST EAST OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON WED...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SOUTHERN COASTAL TROUGH/WEAK LOW DRIFTING UP THE COAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY FOR THE REGION UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ON WED...BUT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE. BASED ON MODEL TRENDS THERE IS A LOW PROB THAT LIGHT RAIN COULD WORK INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE BY LATE DAY WED. A STRENGTHENING NE GRADIENT IS LIKELY BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST. TEMP GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...WITH TEMPS POTENTIALLY RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS. HAVE UNDERCUT MAV/MET BLEND SLIGHTLY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM WITH THE CENTER SHIFTING JUST OFF THE MAINE COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SURFACE LOW FROM THE SOUTH SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY NORTH. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AROUND THIS LOW IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND INTENSITY...AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP. LATEST GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE WETTER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS LOW. GFS/CMC ARE FASTEST/WETTEST WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA ON THURSDAY. ECMWF/NAM KEEP THE LOW SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH WITH RAIN NOT BEGINNING TILL LATE THURSDAY. THE REAL QUESTION WILL BE IF THE HIGH PRESSURE CAN HOLD OFF THE RAIN AND UNTIL WHEN. FOR NOW...DID PUT SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING WHICH IS A CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO ANY HIGHER THAN THAT AT THIS TIME. AS THE LOW APPROACHES...THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND NE WINDS INCREASE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE ON LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. LARGE DIFFERENCE IN TEMP GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY AS WELL DEPENDING ON HOW THE LOW PRESSURE PLAYS OUT. WILL TAKE A MIDDLE RANGE OF VALUES FOR THURS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM...A GENERAL GMOS/WPC BLEND WAS USED WITH TEMPS A FEW DEG ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THEN TAKES CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRES WILL BUILDS OVER THE AREA THRU TNGT. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NW FLOW BECOMES VRB BY 16-18Z...WITH A CHC OF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTN. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .TONIGHT...VFR. LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NE. .WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. E WINDS 10-15 KT. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. E WINDS 10-15 KT. .THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN TERMINALS...WITH MVFR CONDS ALSO POSSIBLE. E-SE FLOW THURSDAY...TURNING TO THE NE FRIDAY. .SATURDAY...VFR. LIGHT WINDS. && .MARINE... SE SWELLS AND NW WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS MORNING WITH SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WATERS. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK FARTHER NORTHWARD FOR THE THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING E/NE GRADIENT ON WED WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDS BY LATE IN THE DAY ON THE OCEAN WATERS. SCA OCEAN SEAS LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES NORTH. GUSTS ABOVE 25KT WILL ALSO LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY UNTIL THE GRADIENT SLACKENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT GUSTS OF 30-34KT AS WELL WED-THU BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT. POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO BUILD IN EXCESS OF 10 FT WED NIGHT/THU IF STRONGER WINDS MATERIALIZE. SUB SCA WINDS AND SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. && .HYDROLOGY... MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTH AND POSSIBLY IMPACT THE AREA WED NIGHT-FRI. A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW FAR NORTH AND QUICKLY THE PRECIP SHIELD GETS. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WED NIGHT/THU...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... PERSISTENT NE FLOW AND NEW MOON WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WITH THU MORN/AFT HIGH TIDE CYCLE...MAINLY ALONG VULNERABLE NY HARBOR...NYC/WESTERN LI BACK BAY AND WESTERN SOUND LOCATIONS. WITH THE HIGHER WATER LEVELS...MINOR BEACH EROSION LIKELY WITH 2 DAY DURATION OF ROUGH SURF SWEEPING DOWNSHORE FROM E TO W. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LN/NV NEAR TERM...NV SHORT TERM...NV LONG TERM...LN AVIATION...JMC MARINE...LN/NV HYDROLOGY...LN/NV TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV

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