Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 220857 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 357 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SLOWLY DEPARTS TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THAT LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DRY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SOME LIGHT PRECIP INDICATED ON RADAR ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND...SOUTHERN CT...AND INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...BUT ONLY KHPN IS REPORTING SOME LIGHT SLEET...AND KBDR INDICATED A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES. WILL KEEP SCATTERED SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH WARMER AIR FILTERING IN ALOFT...AND SFC TEMPS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE FREEZING...NOT GOING TO EXPECT MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF SLEET. ALSO THINK PRECIP WILL NOT BE MEASURABLE THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA TODAY AND WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH LATE AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO DEPART. WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL PUSH INTO SW ZONES LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SOME RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO NYC AND PARTS OF NE NJ BY THE EVENING COMMUTE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS COASTAL ZONES TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE LOW. WITH COLD AIR ACROSS THE INTERIOR SLOW TO DEPART...CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...MAINLY FOR ORANGE COUNTY...TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND TO LAST THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR ORANGE COUNTY FROM 6 PM MONDAY THROUGH 4 AM TUESDAY. BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD SURGE NORTHWARD TO CHANGE PRECIP TO PLAIN RAIN...BUT NOT BEFORE A LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION DEVELOPS. THE EVENING COMMUTE MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS DUE TO THE ICE. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. LOW PRES THEN WEAKENS AS IT TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE COAST...AND THAT LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY BEFORE DEPARTING TUESDAY NIGHT. THINK THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIP TUESDAY MORNING IN BETWEEN THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT AND THE SECOND WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WILL SLOWLY RISE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...CAN EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. WITH WAA BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S FOR MOST AREAS...AND INTO THE LOW 50S FOR COASTAL AREAS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... SOME LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENED LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH BRINGS THE LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA LATE NIGHT WEDS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES WEDS AFTN AND EVENING. BY DAYBREAK ON CHRISTMAS...RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ONLY FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS EASTERN LI AND SE CT. FARTHER WEST...ONLY A CHANCE OF A SHOWER EARLY ON...SO MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY. AS FOR WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING WEDS/WEDS NIGHT IN SPITE OF THE STRONG LLJ THAT WILL PASSING OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MIXING DOWN THROUGH A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION. THERE IS HOWEVER A CHANCE OF A FEW GUSTS GETTING UP TO NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA ON THURSDAY IF GFS VERIFIES. ECMWF IS WEAKER WITH WINDS HOWEVER. BEST GUESS RIGHT NOW IS THAT WE FALL JUST BELOW CRITERIA...BUT GUSTS TO CRITERIA ARE STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE 50S BOTH DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE NORMALS. FOR SATURDAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND EITHER WASHES OUT OR PASSES THROUGH AS TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE...SO KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR BOTH PERIODS. MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ABOUT WHAT HAPPENS ON SUNDAY. FOR A COUPLE OF RUNS NOW...ECMWF HAS LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH OR NEARBY...WITH THE GFS FAVORING A NORTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH HERE. WILL GO WITH CHC POPS FOR NOW. WILL KEEP PCPN TYPE SIMPLE FOR NOW WITH JUST RAIN...SNOW...OR A MIX OF THE TWO. && .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA... AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS NEAR THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. MVFR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...WITH LOCALIZED VARYING TO IFR OR VFR AT TIMES. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/ EXACT LOCATION OF ANY IFR OR VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE/SNOW...WITH SOME SLEET POSSIBLE AS WELL AT NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL REMAIN THROUGH AROUND 12Z...MOSTLY EAST OF THE NYC TERMINALS. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. A WEAK N-NNE FLOW AT LESS THAN 10 KT GRADUALLY VEERS AROUND TO NE-E BY THIS AFTERNOON. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: VARYING CEILINGS POSSIBLE. TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: VARYING CEILINGS POSSIBLE. TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: VARYING CEILINGS POSSIBLE. TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: VARYING CEILINGS POSSIBLE. TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: ANY SPOTTY -SN/PL SHOULD BE DONE BY 12Z. VARYING CEILINGS POSSIBLE. TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: VARYING CEILINGS POSSIBLE. TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .LATE TONIGHT...IFR LIKELY. .TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR LIKELY. E WINDS G15-20 KT PROBABLE... BECOMING SE. .WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH IMPACT EVENT BECOMING LIKELY. IFR WITH +RA. S/SE WINDS 15-20G20-25KT POSSIBLE. LLWS PROBABLE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW LATE AT NIGHT. .THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE MORNING FROM W TO E. WSW-NW WINDS G30-35+KT LIKELY. .FRIDAY...VFR. WNW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... NE WINDS 10-15 KT ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AS HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE WATERS SLOWLY DEPARTS AND A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC LIFTS TO THE NORTH. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER EASTERN OCEAN WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND WILL HOIST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ350 DUE TO WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT. SCA MAY HAVE TO BE EXPANDED TO ALL OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT. ALL OTHER WATERS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE WIND GUSTS ON THE OCEAN INCREASE TO GALE FORCE. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND BECOMES VERY GUSTY IN THE COLDER AIR. GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL PROBABLY FOR ALL WATERS DURING THURSDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW GALE FORCE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT BY THE END OF FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL HOWEVER REMAIN AT CRITERIA LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... RAINFALL FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING COULD TOTAL 1 1/2 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. DRY WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ067. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS NEAR TERM...MPS SHORT TERM...MPS LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...MALOIT MARINE...JC/MPS HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS

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