Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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579 FXUS61 KOKX 250605 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 205 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A series of weak low pressure troughs forming over land each day will move offshore each night through Tuesday night, while strong high pressure remains well to the southwest. The high will eventually build in on Wednesday. A warm front will approach on Thursday and move through at night. A cold front approaching from the north on Friday will stall nearby into the holiday weekend, with unsettled weather. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Showers across the interior have fallen apart. Dry overnight. Otherwise, temps have dropped quickly outside of the city with mainly clr skies. The grids have been updated as a result. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Sunday should be another mostly sunny and pleasantly warm day, with highs 75-80. Another weak inland trough/pseudo-cold front should set up over land, and move offshore at night. As this takes place, an afternoon sea breeze should give way to stronger W winds for a while from late day into the evening. Low temps will be just a touch cooler than those fcst for tonight, ranging from the lower 50s inland, to lower 60s in/just outside NYC. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Looks fairly dry with comfortable humidity and slightly below normal temperatures through mid week. A warm front approaches on Thursday as low pressure passes across southern Canada. In its wake, a cold front sags south into NY State on Friday. The front becomes stationary near the region into the weekend - which appears will be "unsettled." Region is in the right rear entrance to a strong 120+ KT polar jet streak along with SFC trof over the Hudson valley on Monday afternoon. Fortunately, instability is limited to below 500 HPA - at least based on SREF and GFS. NWP QPF is near zero and have thus confined any PoP to extreme NW area. Similar situation on Tuesday with perhaps a tad more instability and pseudo cold FROPA. Have a 20 POP for the AFTN. Wednesday is dry and then warm advection starts in on Thursday. Frontal boundary in the region, or just north, on Friday and have POPs in for TSRA. Looks to remain unsettled through the holiday weekend at this time. Temps come back to near seasonable on Thursday and then go above Friday into the weekend. No heat issues foreseen though. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure well to our south and west will be in control for the most part through the TAF period. A weak disturbance well to the NW will approach the region late today, more so for far NW terminals (KSWF and KHPN). Slight chance of a late day, evening shower or thunderstorm for these far NW terminals, but confidence is too low to put in TAF at this time. VFR thru the TAF period. Timing and northern extent of wind changes only at moderate confidence level. Sea breezes are expected to develop Sunday late morning/afternoon, but exact timing of onset may be delayed by an hour or two from what is in TAFS. Locations like KBDR, and KLGA confidence is lower here regarding seabreeze onset and duration this afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .Sunday Night...VFR. .Monday...VFR. Coastal sea breezes expected, Slight chance of late day shra/tstm for NW terminals. .Tuesday...VFR. Chance to slight chance of late day shra/tstm. .Wednesday...VFR. .Thursday...VFR. && .MARINE... Ocean seas running 5-7 ft at the offshore buoys, but with winds below 15 kt, SCA for hazardous seas now in place. There could be a brief lull in seas Sunday afternoon before a tighter pressure gradient ahead of an approaching trough possibly brings them back to 5 ft. have held off on extending SCA that far out in time to see if the 1-2 ft anomaly between observed and model forecast seas continues into Sunday. For the longer term...tranquil on Monday and continuing through Thursday morning. Ocean seas will likely build to SCA criteria late Thursday and continue as such on Friday. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts expected through at least the end of next week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Astronomical tides are running very high, especially during the nighttime high tide cycles. Will need to monitor tides again tonight across the Nassau south shore bays, where water levels should briefly touch or barely exceed minor thresholds. && .EQUIPMENT... * The KOKX Doppler Weather Radar (WSR-88D) remains unavailable due to required maintenance. The radar could return to service as early as Sunday. * Surface Observations from KFRG (Farmingdale, NY) are not available. Observations from KHPN (White Plains, NY and KHVN (New Haven,CT) are being disseminated through backup methods. All is due to an FAA communication line outage. Return to service time is unknown. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ355. Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350. Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Goodman/Tongue NEAR TERM...JMC/Goodman/Tongue/PW SHORT TERM...Goodman/PW LONG TERM...Tongue AVIATION...JE MARINE...Goodman/Tongue/PW HYDROLOGY...JMC/Goodman/Tongue/PW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... EQUIPMENT...

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