Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 011728 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 128 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT. THE FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...THEN SLIDES BACK TO THE SOUTH AND STALLS MONDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE THEN RIDE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM THEN IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SOME UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AS THERE ARE 2000-3000 J/KG OF MUCAPE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHERN CT. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT EXPECTING MANY TO DEVELOP. HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASS BY THE AREA IN WSW-SW FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL MAINLY LAY S OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY ON MONDAY...WHEN THERE IS NOW ENOUGH SUPPORT IN THE VARIOUS NWP SOLUTIONS TO BELIEVE IT SHOULD PUSH INTO THE REGION. THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES...EVEN THIS CLOSE TO THE EVENT IS NOT CERTAIN...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THEY WILL PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL GENERALLY DURING THE DAY THAN AT NIGHT...SO HAVE INTRODUCED FOG/DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WHEN THERE ARE EXPECTED LULLS IN PRECIPITATION. ALSO...SHOWALTER INDICES FOR THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON MONDAY ARE PROGGED TO GENERALLY -2 TO 2. ON THE WHOLE GENERALLY EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...WITH LULLS OF MAINLY PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING...AND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. FOR LOWS TONIGHT...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED. LOWS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NOTE...IF THE WARM FRONT DOES NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA...THEN HIGHS COULD END UP 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY AREAS FROM CENTRAL LONG ISLAND ON W-NW INTO NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH VALUES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE...NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-925 HPA WAS USED PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE AND NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OFF A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY...WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED...WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY THAN NORMAL DUE TO A CUTOFF LOW BEING FORECAST...AS THE HANDLING OF THIS TYPE OF FEATURE IS NOT THE GREATEST STRENGTH OF CURRENT NWP MODELS. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND REMAINS JUST SOUTH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSES NEARBY TONIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS FORECAST. AT TIMES IT WILL BE DRY. LOW CLOUDS...IFR OR LOW END MVFR...CONTINUE MONDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE AS WELL. IN FACT...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF THUNDER IN THE MORNING. TOO LOW THOUGH FOR INCLUSION IN THE FORECASTS. WINDS FROM THE E/SE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BACK TO THE NE/E TONIGHT. THE WIND FORECAST ON MONDAY REMAIN UNCERTAIN...DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN GENERAL...EXPECT WINDS TO TURN TOWARD THE E/SE IN THE MORNING. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH FRI... .MON AFTERNOON...IMPROVEMENT TO HIGH END MVFR OR POSSIBLY EVEN VFR IS POSSIBLE WITH A PASSING SHOWER. .MON NIGHT...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN MORE RAIN LATE. .TUE...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS. .TUE NIGHT-FRI...SUB-VFR AT TIMES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FOG/LOW CLOUDS.
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&& .MARINE... MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND SEAS UP TO RIGHT AROUND 5 FT. WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS PROBABLY HOVER AROUND 5 FT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT DUE TO SWELL. WILL THEREFORE LEAVE SCA ON THE OCEAN UNCHANGED...LASTING FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR THE OTHER WATERS...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A GUST OR TWO UP TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN SOUND OR BAYS...BUT NOT WORTH CONSIDERATION OF A SCA. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT SEAS COULD CLIMB TO 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AT TIMES DUE TO A SWELL. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO EXTEND THE SCA AT THIS TIME. THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. WHILE WINDS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THIS TIME...SWELL MAY PUSH SEAS OVER 5 FT...PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER 1/4-1/2 AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT- TUESDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT WOULD BE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IN THOSE AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE ANY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION/TIMING/AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MALOIT NEAR TERM...MPS SHORT TERM...MALOIT LONG TERM...MALOIT AVIATION...PW MARINE...JC/MALOIT HYDROLOGY...MALOIT

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