Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 191342 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 942 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION`S WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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FCST ON TRACK. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH WINDS VEERING SSE THIS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH OCEAN WAVES MEASURED BELOW 2 FT...HAVE LOWERED RIP CURRENT RISK. .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... THE HIGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER NEW ENGLAND THRU WED...WITH DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUING TO KEEP PASSING LOW PRES SE OF THE CWA AND CONVECTIVE PCPN W OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT HAVE KEPT THE FCST DRY. RADIATION FOG POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN THE PINE BARRENS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS WED MRNG. TEMPS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...WHICH ARE CLOSE TO CLIMO DURING THE DAY BUT A FEW DEGREES BLW NORMAL AT NGT.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THIS TIME FRAME WILL FEATURE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY...PASSING JUST SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS TO THE NORTH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. AT THE SFC...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE WEST AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS RIDE ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST RIDGES SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS FOR WESTERN LOCATIONS LATE AT NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY. POSSIBLE SHOWERS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...SETTLING SOUTHEAST. THEREAFTER...BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD BE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE LOW AND FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME DUE TO AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. MAX TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK NEAR NYC METRO...WITH WIDESPREAD 70S ELSEWHERE. LOWS AT NIGHT IN THE 50S AND 60S...AGAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. A NE-E FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SE AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS E OF THE AREA...THEN SHIFTS BACK TOWARD THE E TONIGHT AND THEN BACK TO THE SE LATE TONIGHT. WINDS SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS. GENERALLY VFR...THOUGH KHPN/KSWF MAY SEE MVFR VSBY LATE TONIGHT. WIND DIRECTIONS COULD BE 20-30 DEGREES RIGHT OF FORECAST AT KJFK AND KLGA AFT 17Z TUE. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS BKN015-020 W-NW BEFORE 15Z. SEA BREEZE AFTER 15Z COULD BE A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY THAN FCST. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS BKN015-020 SE BEFORE 15Z. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS BKN015-020 SE BEFORE 15Z. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE AFTER 16Z COULD BE A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY THAN FCST. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WED THROUGH SAT... .TUE NIGHT...VFR. .WED-THU...AN ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS. .THU NIGHT-FRI...CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS. .SAT...VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS THRU WED. A PERSISTENT EASTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO REACH SCA CRITERIA...OR 25 KT. SEAS MAY BUILD IN RESPONSE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS PER WAVE WATCH III.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN THRU THE WEEKEND. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JST NEAR TERM...JST SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...GOODMAN/JP MARINE...JMC/PW HYDROLOGY...JMC/PW

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