Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 280559 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 159 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR THE MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT MAY IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HEIGHTS RISE SLOWLY TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUILDS EAST. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY EAST TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN REMAINS WITH ONE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ANOTHER MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIME. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL SLOWLY BUILD WITH A SURFACE HIGH ALSO BUILDING IN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HOT TEMPS THE FOCUS FOR WED AND THU. UPR LOW TRACKING SEWD FROM QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES DURING THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SUPPRESSING HEIGHTS A BIT. THE GFS HAS LATCHED ON WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER FCST. THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE. AS A RESULT...MADE NO CHANGES ATTM TO TEMPS WED AND THU. HX AT LEAST 95 IN THE CITY BOTH DAYS AND COULD APPROACH 100 NJ ZONES AND SWRN NY ZONES. THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE CDFNT GETS HERE THU NGT AND ENDS FRI PER THE GFS AND ECMWF. SAW NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THIS SOLN. FAIR WX RETURNS LATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD AREA OF HIPRES SETTLES IN AGAIN. MOST OF THE SHRTWV ENERGY REMAINS ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR TEMPS WHICH WAS CLOSE TO THE ONGOING FCST. THE NEXT WEAK FRONTAL SYS AND UPR TROF PROGGED FOR SUN NGT AND MON. ONLY SCHC POPS FOR THIS AS AGAIN MOST OF THE FORCING COULD BE N OF THE CWA. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR PREVAILING FOR MOST TERMINALS MUCH OF THE TIME. A FEW OUTLYING TERMINALS WILL HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR OR LOWER FOG/CEILINGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK TUESDAY. VFR CONTINUES TUESDAY BUT WITH SOME POSSIBLE MVFR HAZE ALONG THE COAST. THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW AT THE MOMENT TO INCLUDE MVFR HAZE IN TAF. LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CITY TERMINALS WILL REACH 10-13 KT WITH SEA BREEZE. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .LATE TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. 5-6SM HAZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. SW WINDS WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT COASTAL TERMINALS. TSRA POSSIBLE THU AFTN/EVE. .FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. A WEAK TROUGH CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY BLW SCA LVLS WED-SAT. EXCEPTION COULD BE THE WRN OCEAN INVOF THE HARBOR ENTRANCE WITH AN ENHANCED SLY FLOW LATE WED AND WED NGT. && .HYDROLOGY... WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT-MON. && .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY JULY 29 2015... LOCATION..........RECORD HIGH/YEAR.........FORECAST HIGH NEWARK....................100/1949.................97 BRIDGEPORT.................96/2002.................91 CENTRAL PARK...............99/1949.................95 LA GUARDIA.................97/1949.................97 J F KENNEDY................99/2002.................92 ISLIP......................96/2002.................93 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET NEAR TERM...MPS/DW SHORT TERM...MET LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...JM/PW MARINE...JMC/MET HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET CLIMATE...

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