Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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882 FXUS61 KOKX 221750 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1250 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front crosses the area from west to east through this afternoon. High pressure builds in Wednesday night through the end of the week. A cold front crosses Saturday night, with high pressure building in from the west for the beginning of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Rain will continue to come to an end from west to east through this afternoon as the cold front sweeps across the area. Behind the front skies will begin to clear, resulting in a period of partly to mostly sunny conditions this afternoon, especially from NYC north and west. Temperatures will remain nearly steady or slowly fall through the afternoon as gusty northwest winds usher in colder air behind the front.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Clear, with diminishing winds overnight allows for radiational thermal decoupling in the rural areas. A blend of MOS was used with near freezing in the NY Metro for lows forecast. Sunny and chilly, but with a light wind for Thanksgiving. Cooler NAM/ECMWF blend seems best for temps (about 8 degrees below normal). && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure at the surface, pushes off the East Coast late Friday into Friday night as a warm front over the Eastern Great Lakes lifts well north of the area. Warm air advection doesn`t seem to kick in until Friday evening, so dry and continued cool for Friday, but slightly warmer than Thursday with highs in the middle to upper 40s. Another cold front approaches the area late Saturday and passes through Saturday night. Southwesterly flow ahead of the front will bring temperatures to normal levels to above normal levels, in the upper 40s to upper 50s. 00Z GEFS keeps it dry. A secondary cold front moves through on Sunday with a reinforcing shot of cold air. Some instability with the colder air aloft associated with the upper level trough may produce some light rain showers. High pressure then keeps the area dry through the beginning of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A coastal low passes well to the east of Long Island as high pressure builds in from the west tonight. VFR returns most terminals, except sub VFR initially eastern terminals. After 20-22Z, VFR as skies clear. These VFR conditions continue through tonight and Thursday morning. Gusty NW winds of 10-20 kt with gusts 20-30 kt are forecast for the remainder of the afternoon. Winds taper off during the evening, with gusts abated by around midnight. Winds diminish to less than 10 kt throughout overnight. NW winds slowly back toward the W/NW Thursday morning. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Moderate to high confidence in gusty winds to the right of 300 True/310 Magnetic. Gusts expected to be less frequent after 1-3Z. KLGA TAF Comments: Moderate to high confidence in gusty winds to the right of 300 True/310 Magnetic. Gusts expected to be less frequent after 1-3Z. KEWR TAF Comments: Moderate to high confidence in gusty winds to the right of 300 True/310 Magnetic. Gusts expected to be less frequent after 1-3Z. KTEB TAF Comments: Moderate to high confidence in gusty NW winds into the early evening. Gusts expected to be less frequent after 0-2Z. KHPN TAF Comments: Moderate to high confidence in gusty NW winds into the early evening. Gusts expected to be less frequent after 0-2Z. KISP TAF Comments: Winds become gusty from the NW before 20Z. Gusts expected to be less frequent after 2-4Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .Thursday afternoon-Friday night...VFR. NW winds back to the W/SW. SW winds G15-20KT possible Friday night, mainly at eastern terminals. .Saturday-Saturday night...MVFR possible in rain. W-NW winds G15-20KT possible Saturday night. .Sunday...Becoming VFR. NW winds G20-30KT possible. .Monday...VFR. Winds back and lighten.
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&& .MARINE...
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The cold front will continue to move east across the waters this afternoon. In its wake, SCA gusts are expected this afternoon and evening in northwest flow. Gusts will subside overnight. 5 to 6 ft waves on the ocean waters on Thursday as a northwest flow shifts to the west-southwest. Waves will diminish Friday, generally coming down below 5 ft for most areas on the ocean by Friday afternoon. Waves increase again on the ocean late Friday night as a southwesterly flow sets up ahead of an approaching cold front, diminishing Saturday night. Winds should generally remain below 25 kt until Sunday afternoon as a northwest flow strengthens behind the passage of a cold front. Winds should remain above 25 kt from Sunday evening throughout the rest of the long term.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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Showers will continue to move east of the area through late this afternoon with up to a tenth of an inch of additional precipitation expected. No hydrologic problems are anticipated the next 7 days.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ330-335- 338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353- 355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Tongue NEAR TERM...FEB/Tongue SHORT TERM...Tongue LONG TERM...Tongue AVIATION...PW MARINE...FEB/Tongue HYDROLOGY...FEB/Tongue

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