Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 011152 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 752 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AS ONE SURFACE TROUGH DEPARTS THIS MORNING...ANOTHER WILL DEVELOP WEST OF NEW YORK CITY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH ANTICIPATED BREAKS OF SUN THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO INTO THE 80S WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND 17C. THE PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL ALSO ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MARGINALLY MODERATE CAPE FORECAST IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RESULT IN SCT PULSE STORMS THIS AFTN. COULD BE A FEW STRONGER STORMS...ALTHOUGH DUE TO THE WEAK SHEAR NOT EXPECTING SEVERE. MORE IMPORTANTLY...PWATS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES AND STORMS WILL BE MOVING SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY SO AN ISOLD FLASH FLOOD THREAT REMAINS...MAINLY IN URBANIZED AREAS. NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A WATCH HOWEVER. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...DUE TO COMBINED 3 TO 5 FT SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES AND A BACKGROUND SE SWELL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... SHRA/TSTMS DIMINISH AND SHIFT EWD DURING THE EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT MOVE EAST. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE WITH H85 TEMPS REMAINING AROUND 17-18C AND MIXING TO THIS HEIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W...BUT WE SHOULD STILL MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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PCPN CHANCES DISSIPATE QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTH...DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH. GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH BETWEEN 00-06Z. ALOFT...THE BETTER FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...WITH ONLY A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH DURING THE 00-06Z TIMEFRAME. AS SUCH...WILL CAP POPS AT HIGHER END CHC THROUGH 03Z OVER AREAS NORTH/WEST NYC METRO...THEN TAPER OFF WITH ALL AREAS BCMG DRY BY 06Z. LINGERING INSTABILITY UP TO 1000 J/KG COULD SEE AN ISO TSTM STILL PSBL TUES EVENING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE WHILE A SEMI-ZONAL FLOW TAKES HOLD BRIEFLY ALOFT. BY WEDNESDAY SEEING DRYING CONDITIONS AS THE HIGH DEEPENS AND RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US. NO PCPN EXPECTED WED-FRI UNDER SUCH A PATTERN. A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR WED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK A FEW DEGREES...THOUGH STILL REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. RISING HEIGHTS WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL INCREASE TEMPS ONCE AGAIN BY WEEKS END...ESP WITH A STRONGER SURGE OF WARMER AIR WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. 00Z GFS/CMC BEGIN APPROACHING THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING IT THROUGH BY SAT MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS THE SLOWER SOLUTION...MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH LATE SAT. QUESTION REMAINS TO WHAT EXTENT THE RIDGE BUILDS...WITH THE GFS/CMC ACTUALLY SIDING CLOSER TO MORE ZONAL FLOW WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED RIDGE WHICH IN TURN TAKE LONGER TO WEAKEN. FOR NOW...SIDED MORE WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR TIMING...THOUGH EVEN THAT COULD BE A BIT SLOW AND RIDGING OVERDONE...WITH A GOOD COMPROMISE BEING SWINGING THE FRONT THROUGH SOMETIME SATURDAY. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY TOPPED POPS AT CHC DURING THE DAY SAT...AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT THE FRONT LINGERING JUST OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND THE ECMWF EVEN ON INTO MONDAY. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SUNDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FRONTAL PLACEMENT. TEMPS QUICKLY REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW BY SUNDAY AS WELL WITH THE TROUGH USHERING IN MUCH COOLER TEMPS ALOFT.
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&& .AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST AIRMASS MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE. ANY STRATUS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT NYC/NJ TERMINALS BY 16Z. STRATUS COULD HOLD ON ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. ANY COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PARTICULARLY THE NYC METRO AND INTERIOR TERMINALS. THE LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL...INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KT DURING THE DAY. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI... .TUE...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA. .WED-FRI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
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&& .MARINE...
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EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET...SEAS BETWEEN 4 AND 5 FT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING SO MAINTAINING THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH 11 AM. GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE. AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25 KTS MIGHT BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUES EVENING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS REACHING 25 KTS DURING THIS TIME. WAVES/SEAS WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING WINDS...THOUGH AT THE MOMENT EXPECTING SEA CONDITIONS TO REMAIN SUB-SCA. WAVEWATCH WAS QUICK TO BUILD THE SEAS...SIDING WITH THE QUICKER GFS SOLUTION...SO DROPPED GUIDANCE AROUND 1 FT FOR FRI NIGHT/SAT TO REFLECT A SLOWER SOLUTION.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1/4 INCH TODAY. DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...THERE WILL BE AREAS THAT RECEIVE LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL...AND SOME AREAS THAT COULD SEE OVER AN INCH. MAINLY A MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT TODAY...ALTHOUGH ISOLD FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH A WATER LOADED ATMOSPHERE. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED WED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-353.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/JM NEAR TERM...JC/NV SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...BC MARINE...JC/JM/PW HYDROLOGY...JC/JM/NV

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