Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 051549 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1049 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAINS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO PASSING OFFSHORE LOW MONDAY...AND ANOTHER LOW THAT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE AREA TUESDAY. LINGERING TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... DEEPENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST SOUTHEAST OF 40/70 LAT/LON TROUGH MIDDAY...THEN CONTINUING TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL END VERY SHORTLY OVER THE FAR NW ZONES...AND SHOULD END NEAR NOON FOR THE NE NJ/NYC/LOWER HUD WITH UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH POSSIBLE THERE. ACROSS LI/CT...HEAVY WET SNOW BANDING ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW...JUST EAST OF THE NYC METRO...WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE NE OF LI/CT THROUGH THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR ARE OCCURRING UNDER THIS BAND AS IT PUSHES EAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS LI AND CT...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS EAST. BASED ON 4 TO 7 INCHES THAT HAVE ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS LI/CT...A GENERAL 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WARNED AREA...WITH LOCALLY 1 FT AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SE CT AND HILLS OF SUFFOLK COUNTY. IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY WET SNOW COMBINED WITH MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30S...WILL LIKELY CAUSE DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES. WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON FOR LI AND CT. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 30S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER FLOW NEARLY ZONAL AS A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES. DURING SATURDAY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND IS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AFTER A COOL DOWN TODAY TEMPERATURES MODERATE AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION SETS UP TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. FAST ON IT/S HEELS IS NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT WILL TRACK TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND...AMPLIFYING AS IT DOES SO. THIS ELONGATED TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST...WITH REINFORCING ENERGY DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND EVENTUALLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY MID WEEK. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA GIVES WAY TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS LOW TRACKS WELL TO THE SE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK BY MONDAY. UPSTREAM LOW MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER MID WEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY STRENGTHENING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST/DELMARVA VCNTY BY TUESDAY. NORLUN TROUGH EXTENDS NW...WITH WEAK TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE NE INTO WED. AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY INITIALLY WITH A POSSIBLE GLANCING BLOW OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY WITH PASSING OFFSHORE LOW. THEN LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP NEARBY AHEAD OF TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE HIGHEST COVERAGE TUESDAY AS THE SFC LOW PASSES CLOSEST TO THE AREA. LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH SFC TROUGH/UPPER TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW IN VICINITY. TOO EARLY FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMS...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW MON NIGHT AND TUE. MODEL DETAILS DO DIFFER ON QPF AMOUNTS. COULD BE SOME PTYPE ISSUES DURING THE DAYTIME AS WELL. OVERALL MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSELY...WHICH WAS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM PREV FCST ANYWAY. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT. SNOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING...ENDING NEAR 17-18Z FOR THE CITY TERMINALS...AND ENDING BY AROUND 21Z OVER KGON. IFR TO MVFR CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER SNOW ENDS. N WINDS BACK NW THIS AFTN. GUSTS 25-30KT THRU AT LEAST MID- AFTN...DIMINISHING LATE. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS STARTING 1430Z: KSWF/TEB...TRACE KEWR...TRACE KHPN...1 INCH KLGA...1-2 INCHES KJFK...2 INCHES KBDR...2-3 INCHES KISP...3 INCHES KGON...4 INCHES NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 17-18Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 17-18Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIGS 18-19Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MIGHT OCCUR AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. TEMPO MVFR CIGS 20-21Z MIGHT NOT OCCUR. GUSTS MAY END A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST THIS EVE. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR. .MONDAY...MAINLY VFR EARLY...WITH MVFR OR LOWER AS SNOW BECOMES LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT. .TUESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER WITH SNOW LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED PTYPE DURING THE AFTN AT THE COAST...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY. && .MARINE... FORECAST WINDS AND WAVES ON TRACK. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS TODAY WITH A STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY WITH SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WIND SUBSIDE. THERE MAY BE SOME SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS INTO THIS EVENING...AND MAYBE THE FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND BAYS...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN INTO TONIGHT. SW WINDS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE N...THEN NE AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SE OF THE WATERS MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PASSES CLOSER TO THE WATERS TUESDAY. AS SUCH...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS BY THAT TIME. && .HYDROLOGY... SNOWFALL WILL WIND DOWN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS LI AND CT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY THRU TUESDAY. MOST OF THAT COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ006>008-010>012. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ005- 009. NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ078>081. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ068>075- 176-178. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ177- 179. NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ004-006- 103>108. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330- 335-338-340-345. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NV NEAR TERM...NV SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...JC MARINE... HYDROLOGY...NV

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