Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 191828 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 128 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure strengthens over the western Atlantic today as a warm front slowly approaches from the south. The front is expected to lift into the region late tonight, possibly lifting through the Tri State area on Tuesday. A cold front approaches Wednesday and moves south of the area Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure builds across New England on Friday. Unsettled conditions follow for the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Leading edge of some light rain ahead of an approaching warm front working into far western portions of Orange County in the Lower Hudson Valley. Expect widespread light rain across the area working in from west to east this afternoon into early this evening. Clouds have overspread all but the twin forks of eastern Long Island and SE CT, but will do in the next hour. Temps are expected to be 5-10 degrees above normal today ranging from the lower 40s well NW to lower 50s in the NYC metro. There been some slight adjustments.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Strong SE ridging continues through Tue with a Bermuda high parked over the western Atlantic. Challenging forecast for Tue wrt warm fropa. Rain continues into the evening as the shortwave tracks through New England and isentropic lift becomes more widespread. The organized rain is expected to exit around midnight or so, although light rain or drizzle is then expected overnight with saturated low levels and mid level drying. Additionally, areas of fog are expected to develop and it could become dense in coastal locations tonight. All available guidance is indicating the front pushes through late tonight or Tue morning, however pattern recognition suggests it may only partially move through at the sfc. The low associated with the front will be well west of the Appalachians and typically warm fronts have a very hard time completely moving through the local area in this type of scenario due to the colder coastal waters. There is a 25-35kt LLJ between 1000-975mb late tonight/Tue morning which may be enough to push it through at the sfc. Have higher confidence that the front lifts through western portions of the Tri-State area, but lower confidence that it lifts through CT. Thus, there is high bust potential on high temps Tue. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Anomalously strong ridge across the southeast US/western Atlantic will be in place on Wednesday. The ridge will largely stay in place through the end of the week, but the core gets suppressed a bit with a more westerly flow aloft over the northeast. Several pieces of energy/shortwaves are progged to flow out of the western US trough and around the periphery of the ridge late this week and into the upcoming weekend. The timing of these waves in the flow is difficult to resolve at present time, but there will likely be periods of unsettled conditions late this week into the upcoming weekend. Tuesday night into Wednesday...Moist and unseasonably warm air mass will likely lead to the develop of stratus and fog Tuesday night. It is a big early to determine if the fog will be dense, but enough confidence based on BUFKIT profiles and the anomalous nature of this environment to include of areas of fog. The fog should mix out Wednesday morning except for coastal areas such as Long Island and southeast CT. This is due to the cooler water temperatures and a stronger inversion above the surface. Surface temperatures will be held down a bit here due to the ocean influence and potential for fog/stratus to linger. Highs range from the middle 50s to near 60s degrees. Elsewhere, the warmest day of 2018 is likely for Wednesday as temperatures warm into the upper 60s inland and near 70 or even lower 70s for NYC metro and NE NJ. See climate section below for record highs. Wednesday night into Thursday night...There is overall excellent agreement among the 00z models and the last few runs of the deterministic and ensemble guidance for a cold front to sink south of the area Wednesday night into Thursday. The ridge breaks down just enough to allow the front to move through the area. The models do differ on the amount of shower activity with the front and then again with any overrunning on Thursday as high pressure builds across New England. Will continue with chance PoPs until Thursday night when there is enough surface ridging to suppress the front and moisture well to our south. Temperatures on Thursday will be about 10-15 degrees cooler than Wednesday, but still well above normal for this time of year. Friday into the upcoming weekend...Active and unsettled weather pattern will continue as several shortwaves move around the periphery of the southeast ridge. The best chance of rain based on a blend of the latest guidance appears to be Friday into Friday night and then again on Sunday. However, there are significant differences among the GFS/GEFS/ECMWF/EPS which indicate potential for rain on Saturday as well. Temperatures will continue unseasonably mild Saturday and Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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High pressure continues to slide east as a warm front approaches the area later this evening and tonight. VFR conditions with southerly winds 5 to 10 kt. Stratus has overspread much of the region and rain will move in from the west late. MVFR ceilings are possible by mid to late afternoon, after 20-22Z. S winds around 10 kt are forecast, and these winds lighten by evening. MVFR to IFR conditions are likely tonight as ceilings lower and fog develops. Cannot rule out LIFR ceilings and visibilities at times as the night progresses. LLWS in the forecast most terminals for SW winds around 2 kft at 35-40 kt. Low conditions continue Tuesday morning, however some improvement is expected by mid to late morning. Uncertain to if we actually reach VFR before 18Z. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Amendments are possible this afternoon and evening for stratus/MVFR ceilings. Timing remains uncertain. KLGA TAF Comments: Amendments are possible this afternoon and evening for stratus/MVFR ceilings. Timing remains uncertain. KEWR TAF Comments: Amendments are possible this afternoon and evening for stratus/MVFR ceilings. Timing remains uncertain. KTEB TAF Comments: Amendments are possible this afternoon and evening for stratus/MVFR ceilings. Timing remains uncertain. KHPN TAF Comments: Amendments are possible this afternoon and evening for stratus/MVFR ceilings. Timing remains uncertain. KISP TAF Comments: Amendments are possible this afternoon and evening for stratus/MVFR ceilings. Timing remains uncertain. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .Tue...MVFR or IFR possible at night, otherwise VFR with SW wind G15-20KT possible. .Wed...Mostly VFR, patchy fog possible. Chance of showers with MVFR late in the day. SW wind G15-20KT possible. Winds shift to the N at night. .Thu...MVFR in rain. NE wind G15 KT possible. .Fri...CHC MVFR in rain. .Sat...CHC MVFR in rain.
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&& .MARINE... Tranquil conditions will prevail across the waters into this evening as high pressure settles over the western Atlantic. An increasing SW flow will develop tonight and continue on Tue as the offshore high strengthens and low pressure moves through the Midwest and into the Great Lakes region. A strong inversion will develop over the waters due to a WAA pattern keeping winds below SCA levels, although seas on the ocean east of Fire Island Inlet are expected to build to marginal levels tonight and Tue. Have issued an SCA for ANZ353 & 350 starting at midnight tonight and continuing through the day Tue. A moderate SW flow on the ocean waters may continue seas above 5 ft Tuesday night into Wednesday. There may also be marginal SCA gusts on the ocean. A cold front moves across the waters Wednesday night with winds and seas subsiding. Sub-SCA conditions are then expected through the end of the week. && .HYDROLOGY... Less than 1/4 inch of rainfall is expected from this afternoon through tonight. Several rounds of rain are possible late this week into the upcoming weekend, but no significant hydrologic impacts are anticipated at this time. && .CLIMATE... Temperatures may approach or break record highs in a few spots Tuesday and Wednesday. Record Highs for Tuesday February 20, 2018 Location........Record/Year Newark..............70/1939 Bridgeport..........54/1991 Central Park........69/1939 LaGuardia...........63/1943 JFK.................61/1949 Islip...............62/2016 Record Highs for Wednesday February 21, 2018 Location........Record/Year Newark..............69/1953 Bridgeport..........59/2002 Central Park........68/1930 LaGuardia...........68/1953 JFK.................63/2002 Islip...............63/2002 && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) is off the air for an extended period of time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...24 NEAR TERM...24/DW SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...BC MARINE...24 HYDROLOGY...DS CLIMATE... EQUIPMENT...

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