Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KOKX 171934 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 334 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY THEN EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MAIN CONCERN/QUESTION FOR TONIGHT IS HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY OVER THE OCEAN OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THINKING IS THAT CLOUD COVER WILL OVERSPREAD AT LEAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA. UNSURE JUST HOW MUCH FURTHER INLAND THE CLOUDS WILL TRAVEL. AS A RESULT...THINKING THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...AT LEAST WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS STARTED. SO WILL CONVERT THE FREEZE WATCHES TO FROST ADVISORIES...AND KEEP THE FROST ADVISORIES THAT ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT UP. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT FROST MAY NOT EVEN DEVELOP WITH THE CLOUD COVER...HOWEVER IF CLOUDS DO NOT MOVE IN...OR WE GET BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DRY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S. OF COURSE TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE TO BE NUDGED DOWN A BIT OF CLOUDS TAKE LONGER TO MOVE IN. WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECT TO SEE INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING NEARBY. MAV/MET GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND USED. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...WHILE FRIDAY NIGHT FALLS INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION. FOR SATURDAY...WITH THE APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ADVECTION OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE...THERE WILL BE AN ENHANCED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD UNDER FULL SUN AS HUMIDITIES DECREASE TO LESS THAN 30 PCT AND NW WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST NEAR NORMAL VALUES IN THE 60S. FOR SUNDAY...A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST CAUSING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT...WITH LOW 60S NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. FORECAST MODELS SHOW A DIGGING AMPLIFYING UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING WEDNESDAY CAUSING CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE LOCAL AREA WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN...TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...THIS APPEARS TO MAINLY BE A LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE RAINFALL OF 1/4-1/2 INCH.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MOVES TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE DAY TODAY. A SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED AND MOVED INLAND OVER NYC TERMINALS. AFTER 02Z WINDS SHOULD BECOME E AGAIN AND THEN DIMINISH TO 8-12 KT AFT 02Z FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR. CLOUD REMNANTS FROM SEA BREEZE PRODUCING OVC CONDITIONS ACROSS CITY TERMINALS AOB 4THSD FT. ALSO WATCHING AREAS OF STRATUS OFF LONG ISLAND AND EAST OF NANTUCKET FOR ANY SIGNS OF MOVING INLAND. WILL INTRODUCE MVFR CIGS IN THE TAFS BECAUSE OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFT 02Z-05Z FRIDAY BUT MAY BE EARLIER DEPENDING ON TRENDS. CIGS SHOULD SCOUR OUT LATE FRIDAY MORNING. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON GUSTS..POTENTIAL UP TO 20KT. DIRECTION BACKING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 02Z. WATCHING STRATUS OFFSHORE AND MAY AMEND FOR MVFR CIGS DEPENDING ON TRENDS. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION. WINDS 15-20 KT. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION. WIND DIRECTION BACKING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 02Z. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION. WIND DIRECTION BACKING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 02Z. WATCHING STRATUS OFFSHORE AND MAY AMEND FOR MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS SCOUR OUT LATE FRIDAY MORNING. .SATURDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA. .SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR. .MONDAY...VFR. && .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS WHERE GUSTS ARE REACHING 25 KT AND SEAS ARE AROUND 6-7 FT. THIS SMALL CRAFT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER SOME LINGERING 5 FT SEAS MAY REMAIN FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATER. SOUTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER A BRIEF LULL TUESDAY NIGHT..NORTHWEST WINDS MAY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR 1/4 - 1/2 INCH RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ009>012. NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ069>071- 078>081-177-179. NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ004-103>108. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/GC NEAR TERM...BC SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...GC AVIATION...IRD MARINE...BC/GC HYDROLOGY...BC/GC

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.