Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 041124 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 724 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA DRIFTS TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT...AND THEN REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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UPDATE INCLUDES SPEEDING UP TIMING OF ISO SHOWERS TO INCLUDE THIS MORNING AS A FEW CELLS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE. ISO SHRA/TSRA STILL EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTN WITH THE SHORTWAVE. HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE SOUTH TODAY. AS IT DOES...A TIGHT E-NE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THAT AND LOW PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH...MAINLY FOR COASTAL AREAS...THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES CLOUDY...AND HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS GOING INTO THIS AFTERNOON FOR ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES AS SEAS BUILD AND LONG SHORE CURRENT INCREASES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... SKIES CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTH...AND WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN/AROUND NYC TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE STRETCH OF TIME...THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY EVENING...WITH RH VALUES BELOW 50% FROM APPROX 900-250MB. THIS COMES COURTESY OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT THAT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. SUNNY SKIES AND MAINLY CLEAR NIGHTS OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG MON AND TUESDAY NIGHTS. BOTH MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION FIRING UP ALONG A TROUGH NEAR THE WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST...WHICH WOULD SEEM A PRETTY GOOD BET CONSIDERING THE SUSTAINED DRY WEATHER PATTERN GOING ON. TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO ABOVE NORMALS IN SPITE OF HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE AND SEA BREEZES LIMITING THE MIXING DEPTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE CURRENT RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE SAFE...BUT EXPECTED HIGHS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY CAN COME CLOSE TO RECORDS IN SOME CASES. PREFERRED THE WARMER NAM MOS FOR HIGHS SUNDAY...AND WITH 900MB TEMPS RISING....MONDAY SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER. DEEPER MIXING ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH WEAKER SUBSIDENCE AND LESSER SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE. AND WITH TEMPS ALOFT RISING BOTH DAYS...EXPECTING TO SEE TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 IN THE CITY...NE NJ...AND SOME OTHER INLAND SPOTS AWAY FROM SEA BREEZES. WEDNESDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TUESDAY. SO FAR IT APPEARS THAT DEWPOINTS...WHILE NOT NECESSARILY AT COMFORTABLE LEVELS...WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE HEAT ADVISORY CONCERNS. LOOKS LIKE OUR BEST SHOT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ARRIVES SOMETIME THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND PASSING THROUGH. HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY STILL ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH TONIGHT. OUTSIDE OF VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR POSSIBLE AT KISP TO GET STARTED...MOST LIKELY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FOR NOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS IS TOO LOW TO PUT IN TAFS BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS...HOWEVER CANNOT 100 PERCENT RULE OUT. SHOULD THOUGH SEE A PERIOD OF CEILINGS 3500-7000FT INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASING OUT THE NE THIS MORNING...AND WILL VEER TO ENE-E BY LATER THIS MORNING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10-15KT AND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT COASTAL TERMINALS. WIND GUSTS SHOULD ABATE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING TO 10KT OR LESS THROUGHOUT BY AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT (SOONEST AWAY FROM CITY TERMINALS...COULD GO BELOW 10 KT THERE AROUND 0Z). KSWF SHOULD GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY LATE EVENING. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED...AS WELL AS CEILING COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. VERY LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS TODAY. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED...AS WELL AS CEILING COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. VERY LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS TODAY. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED...AS WELL AS CEILING COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. VERY LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS TODAY. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED...AS WELL AS CEILING COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. VERY LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS TODAY. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED...AS WELL AS CEILING COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. VERY LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS TODAY. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED...AS WELL AS CEILING COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS TODAY. TIMING OF END OF MVFR FOG THIS MORNING COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .SATURDAY-TUESDAY...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... HIGH PRES OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC SLOWLY DRIFTS TO THE SOUTH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL FORM A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WITH WIT LOW PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. E-NE WINDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FT...AND WILL LIKELY NOT SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 5 FT UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OCEAN WATERS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS. THEREAFTER...SUB SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SE OF THE REGION. && .FIRE WEATHER... MIN RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 50-60 PERCENT TODAY...AND EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH FOR COASTAL AREAS. WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 10-15 MPH ACROSS INTERIOR NW ZONES. && .HYDROLOGY... NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353- 355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS NEAR TERM...JC/MPS SHORT TERM...MPS LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...MALOIT MARINE...JC/MPS FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS

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