Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 040536 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 136 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CLOUDY AND DAMP WEATHER WILL PERSIST THRU FRI...THEN BEGIN TO EASE ON SAT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE AROUND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION DIGS SOUTHWARD. WEAK EMBEDDED VORTS WILL PASS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...WITH NOT MUCH NOTED IN 12Z MODEL SUITE TO PROVIDE LIFT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH. GENERALLY EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING LOW CLOUDS AROUND. LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW BREAKS IN CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN CT...CLOSER TO RIDGING. AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. DO NOT SEE SUFFICIENT LIFT TO WARRANT MORE THAN LOWER COVERAGE TO PRECIP AT THIS TIME. TEMPS REMAIN CHILLY TONIGHT...IN THE 40S. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH DISPARITY IN LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT. MODEL/MOS BLEND USED. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... ANALYSIS OF 12Z MODEL SUITE INDICATES SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTHWARD...EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF THIS TIME FRAME. THIS TROUGH ANOMALOUSLY STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND HEADS OUT WAY BY AFTERNOON/EVENING PER MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS MOVE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. WARM/COLD FRONT REMAINS SOUTH. ANY MORNING SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE COULD GIVE WAY TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER COVERAGE OF LIGHT TO PERHAPS MODERATE RAIN AHEAD OF MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE...DEEPER LIFT. ANY RAIN LIKELY TAPERS OFF ONCE AGAIN TO SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WED NIGHT. CONTINUED COOL WEATHER/TEMPS EXPECTED WITH HIGH/S IN THE 50S...AND LOWS IN THE 40S. HIGH TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... H5 LOW DROPS INTO THE MID ATLC FROM THE MIDWEST THU AND FRI. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE LOCKED IN...THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE OFFSHORE AS THE ADVECTION WILL BE DISPLACED EWD FROM THE CLOSE LOW. AS A RESULT...PCPN LOOKS TO BE MAINLY LIGHT THU- FRI. KEPT POPS AT CHC...BUT INCLUDED DZ THU AND THU NGT. BETTER CHC FOR A ROUND OF MDT RAIN ON FRI WITH THE STRONGEST OF THE SHRTWV ENERGY...SO PERHAPS MORE OF A RAINY DAY AS OPPOSED TO A DRIZZLY DAY. THE H5 LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE NERN CONUS SAT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DWINDLE THOUGH WITH NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. AS A RESULT...POPS AROUND 30. THE SUN MAY MAKE AN APPEARANCE...BUT THIS COULD LEAD TO QUICK DESTABILIZATION AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHWRS. BY LATE SAT NGT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE RACING SEWD FROM CNTRL CANADA AND COULD SPARK SHWRS BY SUN MRNG. THE GFS TIMING IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF...SO WENT WITH CHC POPS ALL DAY SUN BEFORE QUICKLY DROPPING THEM SUN EVE. THE COLD AIR WILL BE SO SHORTLIVED THAT HIGHS ON MON ARE LIKELY TO BE WARMER THAN SUN. HEIGHTS INCREASE ON TUE SO SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND W OF THE HUDSON PER THE SUPERBLEND. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL MOVE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM VLIFR AT HPN TO VFR AT GON. MOST OF THE OTHER TERMINALS WILL REMAIN IFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT GOING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE VERY WELL COULD BE FLUCTUATION BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. JUST SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG TONIGHT WITH THE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN HOLDING OFF TIL MID TO LATE MORNING. WINDS UNDER 10 KT TONIGHT AND MORE FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY BY MORNING AND INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KT WITH SOME GUSTS 15-20 KT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON CATEGORY FORECAST. THE MVFR AND IFR TIMING COULD EACH BE SEVERAL HOURS OFF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THU THROUGH SUNDAY... .WED NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...PDS OF RAIN/FOG/LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS. NE WINDS G20 KT POSSIBLE WED EVENING AND ALSO AT TIMES THU AND FRI. .SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...COLD FROPA SHOULD FINALLY BRING AN END TO DISMAL CONDITIONS...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AND NW WINDS G35 KT POSSIBLE.
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&& .MARINE... A PERSISTENT EASTERLY WIND CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS PASS TO THE SOUTH. WINDS DECREASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN WED AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE. ON THE OCEAN...DO EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH WED NIGHT PER WAVE GUIDANCE. AGAIN...WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST EARLY TONIGHT...THEN AGAIN LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT. FOR THE NON OCEAN WATERS...DO NOT EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO BE MET. WINDS MAY APPROACH FOR A SHORT TIME ACROSS THE LONG ISLAND SOUND LATER WEDNESDAY. SCA COND WILL CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN THRU THE WEEKEND. ON THE PROTECTED WATERS...LGT TO MDT NE FLOW THU-FRI...THEN VRB FLOW ON SAT BECOMING WLY ON SUN...WHERE THERE WILL BE A CHC FOR 25KT GUSTS. && .HYDROLOGY... ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT TONIGHT. MORE RAIN IS POSSIBLE WED AND WED NIGHT...BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AS AMOUNTS REMAIN LIGHT...UNDER A HALF AN INCH. AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THU AND FRI. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... THE HIGHEST SPRING TIDE OF THE YEAR IS APPROACHING WITH THE NEW MOON ON FRIDAY. THE THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HIGH TIDES WED INTO FRI...AND LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND. PERIODIC NE FLOW IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE WAVES WILL PREDICATE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING...BUT THE THREAT IS THERE PARTICULARLY FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND/QUEENS. 15 TO 20 KT E/ENE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG VULNERABLE LOCALES OF THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF WESTERN LI/NYC, WESTERN LI SOUND, AND POSSIBLY NY/NJ HARBOR DURING WED EVE HIGH TIDE. TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 1/2 TO 1 FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS TO BE REACHED IN MOST OF THESE SPOTS. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353- 355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/PW NEAR TERM...FEB/NV/PW SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...BC MARINE...FEB/JMC/NV/PW HYDROLOGY...JMC/PW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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