Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KOKX 262219
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
619 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016
Bermuda High pressure will remain across the region through the
weekend. A cold front will pass through the area Monday into
Tuesday. High pressure returns for the middle of the week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Increased winds in the city due to the weak barrier jet. Otherwise
the forecast was on track. Deep ridging remains over the region
tonight with the western periphery of the Bermuda high across the
region. There was a very weak surface trough across the Lower
Hudson Valley, however, surface based and mixed CAPE remains
limited across the region. Also limiting convection was lack
shortwave energy. A shortwave does move into the ridge late
tonight, however, at that time Cape and instability are very
limited. Will still carry slight chance pops across the lower
Hudson Valley into this evening with areal wording of the
possibility of isolated thunderstorms.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Bermuda high pressure and upper ridging remains across the region
Friday and Friday night. Heights will be rising through the
period. Again a weak surface trough develops across the lower
Hudson Valley Friday afternoon. Instability and CAPE will be
higher than Thursday and afternoon thunderstorms will be possible
inland. Will keep pops at chance, and only a little higher than
Thursday. Friday and Friday night will be more humid than Thursday
as low level moisture is transported into the region on return
flow. Dew points will be rising into the mid 60s, resulting in
higher relative humidity levels with afternoon highs similar to
There is a moderate risk of rip current development at the
Atlantic beaches Friday.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mainly dry conditions expected through the weekend. High
temperatures will be in the 80s with dewpoints in the lower 60s.
There is a change of some showers/thunderstorms Saturday and
Sunday afternoon and evening...mostly across areas north and west
of New York City. A cold front approaches the area on Sunday
afternoon, then moves across the area on Monday and Tuesday. As a
result expect a chance of showers and thunderstorms during this
period. Dry weather returns on Wednesday and Thursday.
High temperatures Monday through Thursday will be in the 70s to
near 80 degrees. Dewpoints will start out in the lower 60s making
it feel a bit muggy but, will drop down into the 50s by mid week.
.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Persistence forecast the next 24 hours with high pressure over
the Western Atlantic and a thermal trough inland each afternoon.
This will result in mainly VFR conditions and a southerly flow
with local seabreeze enhancements.
An isolated thunderstorm is possible each afternoon/evening, but
primarily north and west of the NYC terminals. Chances remain too
low to mention in TAFs.
NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.
KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.
KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.
KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.
KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.
KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z Friday through Tuesday...
.Friday afternoon-Sunday...Mainly VFR, but sub-VFR possible in
mainly isolated showers and evening thunderstorms.
.Monday and Tuesday...Sub-VFR possible in showers and
The western periphery of Bermuda high pressure remains across the
waters tonight through Friday night. Winds and seas are expected
to remain below small craft levels into Friday night. Southerly
winds do increase somewhat Friday afternoon into the evening as
the pressure gradient force increases, and ocean seas may approach
small craft levels at that time.
Expect small craft advisory level conditions across the area
waters Saturday through the middle of the week.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible inland this evening and again
Friday afternoon and evening. No significant widespread
precipitation is expected through the weekend.
Although widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected with
the passage of a cold front Monday and Tuesday, widespread
flooding is not expected at this time. Localized urban or poor
drainage flooding is possible from heavier downpours.