Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KOKX 230805 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 405 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND WILL START TO MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED OFFSHORE AS A BERMUDA HIGH CLOSING OUT THE WEEKEND INTO THE NEW WEEK. THERE WILL BE AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MONDAY THAT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BERMUDA PERSISTING THEREAFTER.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A VERY DRY DAY IN STORE WITH NW FLOW TO START. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE QUICK DIURNAL WARMING AFTER DAYBREAK. 850MB TEMPS AS WELL AS SFC TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH FULL SUN AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES TO MOVE IN. THE HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER...WELL INTO THE 60S FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
TONIGHT MARKS THE COMMENCEMENT OF THE TRANSITION OF AIRMASS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OFFSHORE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING WITH SW FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. THIS IS DIAGNOSED FROM 850MB TEMPS INCREASING A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL CONVEY A VAST RANGE...UPPER 30S FOR RURAL COUNTRYSIDE TO UPPER 50S FOR NYC. FOR SUNDAY...WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A WARMER DAY WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME TIGHTER AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE NEW WEEK...THE JET STREAM WILL BE PUSHING NORTH OF THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTING OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY BECOME A BERMUDA HIGH. THE WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE. MAX TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON A STEADY RISING TREND GOING THROUGH THE WEEK. A WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION BEHIND IT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST OF NYC MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN VICINITY. MORE OF DIURNAL CONVECTIVE SCENARIO PROCEEDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS RIDGE AMPLITUDE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AND CAPPING ALOFT IS NOT AS PROMINENT. THESE WILL BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO WESTERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXPECTING PATCHY FOG FOR LATE NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. VFR WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NW FLOW SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. WINDS THEN BACK TO THE W...THEN SW AROUND 10 KT DURING THE DAY TODAY. GUSTS IN THE TEENS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER S/SW FLOW AT KJFK DUE TO POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...GENERALLY FROM THE S/SW. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .TONIGHT...VFR. .SUN...VFR. SW WINDS 10-20KT. .MON...VFR. SW WINDS 10-20KT. .TUE...MORNING MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN FOG/STRATUS. SW WINDS. .WED...POCKETS OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN FOG/STRATUS. SW WINDS. && .MARINE... WILL CANCEL THE SCA AS GUSTY NW WINDS DIMINISH THIS MORNING. THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST...THEN SW AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST. THIS HIGH DRIFTS EAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. IN FACT...THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL DAYS. AS SUCH...A PERSISTENT SW/S FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID WEEK PERIOD. IN GENERAL...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WARMER AIR MOVING OVER THE COOLER WATERS. SOME NEAR SHORE GUSTS EACH AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH SCA LEVELS...ESPECIALLY AROUND STRONGER AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES THAT MAY DEVELOP. HOWEVER...WITH A PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS THEN REMAINING AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO WEDNESDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... WITH DAYTIME MIXING AND NORTHWEST FLOW...DEWPOINTS WILL LOWER INTO THE 20S AND UPPER TEENS AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 60S. THE RESULTING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 15 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10 TO 15 MPH ON AVERAGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH AND OCCASIONALLY UP TO 25 MPH. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE SPREAD AND GROWTH OF ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JM NEAR TERM...JM SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...PW MARINE...PW FIRE WEATHER...JM HYDROLOGY...JM

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.