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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 151836
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
236 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TOWARDS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
WEAKENING DURING THE PROCESS. LOW PRESSURE ALONG A STALLED FRONT
TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION APPROACHES FRIDAY AND PASSES EAST OF
THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
COLD FRONT LOCATED JUST NW OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IS BEING
PRECEDED BY MULTIPLE BANDS OF SHOWERS WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. A STRONGER LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING RIGHT
ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS EASTERN PA WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA BETWEEN 4 AND 5 PM. WHILE THERE IS NO SURFACE
INSTABILITY...STRONG VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WITH A 60 TO 70 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET NEAR THE COAST MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER. RIGHT NOW...THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE
ACROSS COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH 25 TO 30 MPH SUSTAINED AND GUSTS UP
TO 45 MPH...WITH 30 TO 35 MPH ELSEWHERE.

INGREDIENTS ARE STILL THERE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT COMBINES WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE....PW
VALUES ABOUT 1.5 INCHES...AND BOTH LOW- AND UPPER- LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOWS A NICE PLUME OF
MOISTURE INTERSECTING THE FRONT...ORIGINATING OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEX. RAINFALL TOTALS STILL LOOK TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 1 1/2
TO 2 INCHES BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND DONE.

IN ADDITION...ISOLATED THUNDER STILL POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO LATE TONIGHT WITH
THE PRECIPITATION ENDING. FORCING DIMINISHES QUICKLY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POST FRONTAL
POSSIBLE. MUCH COLDER AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT THAT MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS ENDED BY THAT TIME. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS JUST TO THE VICINITY OF THE NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA
LATE TONIGHT. AND NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LOWS 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FREEZING OR NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. AND WITH THE GROWING SEASON
BEGINNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING WARNING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IN
THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S...WHILE NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET SOUTH OF THE REGION MID TO LATE THIS WEEK WITH
AS BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. A SHORTWAVE IN
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL WITH ACCOMPANYING JET STREAK WILL MOVE IN
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND EXIT EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE REGION WILL THEN BE ON A NORTHEAST SIDE OF A LARGE
WEAK...RATHER FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. +SHRA BETWEEN 18 AND
23Z. ISO TSTM IS PSBL DURING THIS TIME AS WELL...THOUGH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE/TIMING AND THUS HAVE NOT INCLUDED. RAIN
TAPERS OFF WEST TO EAST 00-06Z...WITH ONLY KSWF EXPECTED TO SEE
LIGHT SNOW MIX IN.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATING NORTHEAST INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL ALLOW FOR A COOLER MARITIME TYPE OF AIR MASS
TO BE WITHIN THE REGION AS WE GET INTO A NORTHEAST FLOW REGIME. THIS
CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WITH WEAKENING WINDS...THE AIR MASS WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE WITH A RESULTING SLOW INCREASE IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...DRY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...A
TREND TOWARDS A MORE WET PATTERN EVIDENT STARTING FRIDAY WITH LOW
PRESSURE IN SOUTHEAST DEVELOPING AND APPROACHING ALONG A STALLED
FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING. CMC ONLY
MODEL SHOWING VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS
FRIDAY WITH GREATER MODEL AGREEMENT ON RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

THIS COMES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH AND GREATER MOISTURE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. RESIDUAL LIGHT NORTHEAST
FLOW AT THE SURFACE FURTHER INCREASES THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.

THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
FOR A DRIER TREND TO WEATHER AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF AS MORE OF A
NORTHERLY FLOW WITH LESS EASTERLY COMPONENT SETTLES IN.

EARLY NEXT WEEK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS AREA
AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE. AIR MASS WILL FURTHER MODERATE WITH WARMER
AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS MOVING IN.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON. WIDE VARIATIONS
IN CONDITIONS. BREAKS IN SHOWERS WILL SEE SOME VSBY AND/OR CIG
IMPROVEMENT...TO VFR IN SOME CASES. OTHERWISE...IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED...WITH LIFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT MOVE
THROUGH.

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS WITH STRONG SLY FLOW DURING THE DAY...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20-30KTS WITH OCNL GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS FOR THE DAY.
SOME ISOLATED GUSTS CLOSE TO 40KT POSSIBLE. WINDS SHIFTING S -SW-
NW DURING THIS TIME AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH 22Z-03Z. WINDS WILL
TAPER OFF SLIGHTLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN INCREASE AGAIN
AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW. GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 KTS LIKELY
TONIGHT WITH AN ISOLATED GUST TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE.

LLWS ISSUES PERSISTING THROUGH LATE AFTN...WITH GENERALLY 50-60
KTS BETWEEN 1-2KFT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER LLWS OF UP TO 65 KT FOR
EASTERN SECTIONS SUCH AS KISP AND KGON AS LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS OVER THESE AREAS THIS MORNING. AS THE JET PUSHES EAST
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT...LLWS WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDITIONS PSBL THIS AFTN WITH HEAVIER
RAIN...VFR PSBL IN BREAKS IN SHOWERS. LLWS SHOULD END AFTER
FROPA...AFTER 22Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDITIONS PSBL THIS AFTN WITH HEAVIER
RAIN...VFR PSBL IN BREAKS IN SHOWERS. LLWS SHOULD END AFTER
FROPA...AFTER 22Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDITIONS PSBL THIS AFTN WITH HEAVIER
RAIN...VFR PSBL IN BREAKS IN SHOWERS. LLWS SHOULD END AFTER
FROPA...AFTER 22Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDITIONS PSBL THIS AFTN WITH HEAVIER
RAIN...VFR PSBL IN BREAKS IN SHOWERS. LLWS SHOULD END AFTER
FROPA...AFTER 22Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDITIONS PSBL THIS AFTN WITH HEAVIER
RAIN...VFR PSBL IN BREAKS IN SHOWERS. LLWS SHOULD END AFTER
FROPA...AFTER 22Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LIFR CONDITIONS PSBL THIS AFTN WITH HEAVIER
RAIN...VFR PSBL IN BREAKS IN SHOWERS. LLWS SHOULD END AFTER
FROPA...AFTER 23Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED...VFR. N WIND G20-25KT PSBL.
.WED NIGHT...VFR.
.THURS...VFR. E WIND G 20-25KT PSBL.
.THURS NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SAT...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA.
.SUN...VFR
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

.MARINE...
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG ON THE WATERS CONTINUES. DENSE FOG
ADVISORY REMAINS WITH EXPECTATION OF VSBY TO DROP BELOW 1 NM
WITH CONTINUED MOIST FLOW.

SMALL CRAFT SEAS ON THE OCEAN CONTINUES TODAY WITH A STRONG
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. WITH AN INCREASE IN THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WINDS
AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THIS
MORNING. A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP HIGHER WINDS FROM MIXING TO
THE WATER SURFACE. SO HAVE POSTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL THE
FORECAST WATERS TODAY. WITH CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE WATERS LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY THE WESTERN
WATERS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF GALE FORCE GUSTS.

BETTER MIXING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AS
STRONG COLD ADVECTION SETS UP BEHIND THE FRONT. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
LIKELY AND UPGRADED THE WATCH TO A WARNING. GALE FORCE GUSTS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY HOURS OF WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES...HOWEVER...DO NOT HAVE HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
EXTEND THE WARNING.

IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BE SLOWLY SUBSIDING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FALLING BELOW 5 FT ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF
MORICHES INLET BY LATE AFTERNOON. SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SEAS WEDNESDAY IF THE GALE WARNING IS NOT
EXTENDED.

AFTER BRIEF LULL IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS OCEAN WED NIGHT...TOWARDS
DAYBREAK THU...RETURN OF SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST WITH EASTERLY FLOW
INCREASING. WINDS WILL TREND TO MOSTLY BELOW SCA BY LATE THU NIGHT
THROUGH REST OF MARINE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL LIKELY
RETURN TO SCA LATE WED NIGHT ON THE OCEAN THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
DROPPING BELOW SCA FOR WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...HIGHER SEAS COULD COME BACK IN ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL OF 1 1/2 TO 2 INCHES...MAINLY ALL LIQUID...EXPECTED FROM
EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES.

MODERATE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. ALSO LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR FLASHY SMALL STREAMS
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TO REACH
MINOR FLOOD LEVELS WITH 1 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AROUND 1 INCH.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

AFTER TONIGHT NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ069-070.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/MET
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JM/MET