Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 271456 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 956 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... THE STRONG NOR`EASTER WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... HAVE REPLACED WARNINGS WITH ADVYS IN NYC...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NE NJ WITH SNOW MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE THERE. ALSO CUT SHORT THE END TIMES FOR WARNINGS FARTHER EAST TO 6 PM. RADAR STILL SHOWS A MESOSCALE SNOW BAND WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH PER HOUR EXTENDING FROM WEST OF BDL TO BDR AND ISP...AND COULD SEE SIMILAR BANDS RE-FORM AND DISSIPATE MOSTLY OVER CT AND LONG ISLAND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE COME DOWN AT MOST SITES PER 14Z OBS...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...BLIZZARD WARNINGS OUT EAST MAY BE REPLACED WITH WINTER STORM WARNINGS OR WINTER WX ADVYS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 20S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... THE LOW SLOWLY FILLS AS IT TRACKS OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ESSENTIALLY OVER WITH JUST SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS INTERIOR SN CT...TO THE TEENS ELSEWHERE. SUN RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HERE ON THE EXTENDED. THIS INCLUDES TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AS WELL AS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM SUNDAY NIGHT. VERY COLD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. DO NOT EXPECT THE INFLUX OF WAA ALOFT CIRRUS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS THICKEN ON THURSDAY WITH WAA ALOFT CONTINUING AS HEIGHTS BUILD AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE. EXPECT THE LIGHT SN THURSDAY NGT AS THE CLIPPER PASS APPROACHES. THE CLIPPER`S COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY FRIDAY AS SEEN IN THE SREF AND THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. THE CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BEFORE INTENSIFYING OVER THE GULF OF MAINE ON FRIDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR SO - THOUGH TEMPS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING MAY RISE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ALONG THE COAST. STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON FRIDAY SUPPORTS FALLING TEMPS THOUGH THE 20S AND INTO THE TEENS WITH A FEW FLURRIES. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY BY LATE SUNDAY...BUT HAVE WARMED TEMPS UP SIGNIFICANTLY AS 00Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION AND NOT OFF THE COAST. THUS MIXED P-TYPE FOR THE COAST. WOULD EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOT OF CHANGES AT THE FORECAST EVOLVES WITH THIS...BUT BELIEVE THIS COULD END UP BEING A "WARM" STORM. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MVFR TO IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS THIS MORNING IN AREAS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. NORTH WINDS BACK TO NORTH-NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING. GUSTS 30-40KT...DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EXPECTED AT KISP AND KGON...WITH RATES OF 1-3 INCH PER HOUR. THESE HIGH RATES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z. LIGHTER SNOW EXPECTED FOR THE NYC TERMINALS. SNOW BEGINS TO TAPER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MDT BAND OF SNOW WILL LINGER INVOF THE ARPT THRU AT LEAST 16Z. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MDT BAND OF SNOW WILL LINGER INVOF THE ARPT THRU AT LEAST 16Z. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL MDT SNOW POSSIBLE THRU 18Z. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB OF ANY MDT SNOW THRU 18Z. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: BAND OF MDT SNOW MAY IMPACT THE AREA AFT 1530Z. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MDT SNOW MAY TAPER OFF FASTER THAN THE TAFS. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .WED...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT. .WED NGT-THU...VFR. .THU NGT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN LGT SN. .FRI...CHC MVFR IN LGT SN IN THE AM. VFR WITH NW WINDS G30KT IN THE AFTN. .SAT...VFR. && .MARINE... 970S LOW WILL PRODUCE GALE TO STORM FORCE CONDS TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO SCA LVLS TONIGHT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 4 TO 8 FT ON THE SOUND. CONDS WILL BECOME SUB-ADVY BY WED EVENING AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY AND HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W. THE HIGH WILL KEEP TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OHD AND THEN OFFSHORE. GALES ARE LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GULF OF MAINE LATE FRIDAY AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SATURDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE FROM 1/2 TO 1 INCH WEST OF THE HUDSON...TO 1-2 INCHES FOR NYC AND WRN LONG ISLAND/CT...TO 2-3 INCHES ERN LONG ISLAND/CT. LOW PRESSURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAY BE BRING UPWARDS OF AN INCH OR MORE OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY RAIN FOR THE COAST. ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ006>008- 010>012. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005- 009. NY...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ078>081. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-176>179. NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002- 004-006-103>108. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-338-345- 355. STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ330-340-353. STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN NEAR TERM...GOODMAN SHORT TERM...GOODMAN LONG TERM... AVIATION...BC/JMC MARINE...GOODMAN HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN

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