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127
FXUS61 KOKX 110528
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
128 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure remains nearby through Friday. High
pressure then builds off the New England coast this weekend,
before a frontal system approaches from the west early next
week. The associated cold front moves through on Monday, and
high pressure returns into midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Earlier showers just to our north of dissipated. Light to calm
winds with low level moisture will lead to patchy fog overnight.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Increasing CAPE and decreasing CIN on Fri, but subsidence across the
region is expected to limit/inhibit convective initiation attm.
Still cannot rule out a few isold or widely sct aftn/eve tstms,
particularly across the interior where there is some terrain to work
with. The GFS does bring isold activity across the entire CWA, but
without support from the NAM, have left the NBM pops unaltered.

Some patchy fog again modeled for Fri ngt. A very subtle lljet may
try to produce a few shwrs or tstms overnight, again mainly nwrn
areas, but the NBM has not latched on to this yet so something to
look for. The NAM and GFS have a weak signal.

Hotter on Fri with all areas in the 80s, and the usual hot spots
across the SW approaching 90. The MAV and NBS has 90 at EWR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure builds off the coast of Nova Scotia and maintains an
offshore flow much of the weekend. This should help keep much of
southern CT and LI dry, though inland western areas will see showers
and thunderstorms possible each afternoon with a moist BL in SE flow
and diurnal heating helping to build instability.

Thereafter, a broad mid level trough centered over the Upper Great
Lakes translates east into early next week, helping advance a
frontal system toward and through the region, bringing increased
chances for a more widespread rainfall, especially on Monday ahead
of the cold front. Parameters appear at least marginally supportive
of thunderstorm development, but steering flow appears progressive
enough to mitigate significant flood concerns.

Conditions dry behind the fropa into midweek as weak high pressure
drifts in and NW flow aloft looks to lower the humidity.
Temperatures through the period look to largely stay in the 80s most
afternoons thru early week, with a gradual warm up then into mid
next week.

National blended guidance was followed for this update.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A surface trough remains in the vicinity of the terminals
through tonight.

Varying flight categories to start the TAF period, but should
begin to lower to MVFR through 09z with IFR east of the NYC
terminals. There is also a chance for brief LIFR at KISP and
KGON. Conditions will improve back to VFR 12-15z. There is also
a chance of a thunderstorm at KSWF late afternoon and early this
evening.

Conditions should start falling back to MVFR or IFR tonight,
but timing and extend are still a bit uncertain.

Light and variable winds early this morning will gradually
become SE after through the late morning/early afternoon. Wind
speeds will remain under 10 kt. Winds weaken again tonight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Conditions may remain VFR through day break, especially at KEWR
and KTEB. TEMPO IFR may not occur at JFK.

Timing of VFR after day break may be off by 1-2 hours where
categories do lower overnight.

Low confidence with flight categories tonight.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday night: MVFR or lower possible.

Saturday-Sunday: Mainly VFR. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening near and
northwest of the NYC terminals.

Monday: VFR. Showers and thunderstorms possible, mainly in the
afternoon and evening.

Tuesday: VFR. Showers or thunderstorm possible in the afternoon
and evening, mainly NYC metro on N and W.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas are expected to remain blw sca lvls thru Fri
ngt.

Light flow and low seas should then maintain sub Small Craft
Advisory conditions on all coastal waters through early next
week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Any tstms that develop thru Fri ngt could produce highly localized
minor flooding.

No significant hydro concerns in the long term.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Rip current risk is moderate through Saturday along Atlantic
facing beaches with onshore flow up to 10 kt and a 3 to 4 ft
swell from the southeast at a 7 sec period.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/DR
NEAR TERM...JMC/JC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JMC/DR
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...