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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 110850
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
450 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
WEAK COLD FRONT WAS JUST WEST OF THE AREA AS OF 08Z. THE FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BY DAYBREAK...FOLLOWED BY DOWNSLOPE WNW FLOW
THAT ALONG WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS TO 55-60
ACROSS NYC METRO AND MOST OF LONG ISLAND...AND 50-55 TO THE
NORTH...SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN A 00Z GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE
BLEND. THE 06Z RAP SUGGESTS THAT TEMPS COULD EVEN REACH THE LOWER
60S INVOF NYC WITH ENOUGH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...BUT HAVE DOUBTS AS
TO WHETHER IT WILL GET THIS WARM AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
CLOUDS WILL LOWER/THICKEN TONIGHT ESPECIALLY NORTH/WEST OF NYC...
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE OH VALLEY. OVERRUNNING
LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD ALSO MOVE INTO AREAS MAINLY NORTH/WEST OF NYC
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE TRENDED WARMER TONIGHT...WITH LOWS 40-45
INVOF NYC AND 35-40 ELSEWHERE...AND WITH ELEVATED WARM NOSE
MOVING IN PRECIP SHOULD START OFF AS RAIN THROUGHOUT.

GFS/ECMWF RELATIVELY CLOSE ON DETAILS WED INTO WED NIGHT AS THE
INTENSIFYING LOW MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND PASSES NW OF NYC
BY WED EVENING. THE BULK OF THE RAIN ON WED SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE
LOW TRACK DURING THE DAYTIME IN THE COOL SECTOR. AS THE SUB-980 MB
SFC LOW TRACKS OVER THE AREA JUST NW OF NYC AND THE COAST LATE WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING...MOST IF NOT ALL THE CWA COULD GET INTO THE
WARM SECTOR...WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE 50S MAINLY ACROSS NYC
METRO...NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WHERE MARINE INFLUENCE
WILL BE MINIMAL. A LINE OF FORCED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION IS LIKELY
ALONG A TRAILING COLD FRONT...WHICH COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND
GUSTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE NJ AND NYC METRO WHERE SFC INSTABILITY
LIKELY TO BE SFC-BASED AS BOTH TEMPS/DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 50S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE INTENSE LOW WED NIGHT AS
IT DEPARTS TO THE GULF OF MAINE...WITH LOWS 20-25 AND POSSIBLY
FALLING TO THE UPPER TEENS WELL INLAND. GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERLY
LOW TRACK...HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD ALSO REMAIN TO THE NORTH...SO
LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED LATE WED NIGHT AS PRECIP
CHANGES OVER TO LIGHT SNOW OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS.

THU AND THU NIGHT WILL BE BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD...WITH TEMPS NOT
RISING MUCH IF AT ALL...REACHING THE MID AND UPPER 20S AT
BEST. NW WINDS COULD REACH ADVY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY ACROSS NYC
METRO AND LONG ISLAND. LOWS THEN EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS INLAND...TEENS MOST ELSEWHERE...AND LOWER 20S IN NYC.
SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS ON RECORD COLD.

THIS VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS DEEP LAYER
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS WITH SW RETURN FLOW AND WAA ON FRI.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA LATE FRI INTO SAT WILL
DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH BY MIDDAY SAT. SOME QUESTION
ON THE EXTENT OF PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS VERY DRY AIR INITIALLY IN
PLACE WILL BE HARD TO OVERCOME. BETTER FORCING ALSO LOOKS TO BE TO
THE NORTH...SO HAVE ONLY MENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE POP.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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WEAK TROF/COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...CLEARING THE EASTERNMOST TERMINAL KGON BY 09Z. S-SW WINDS
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE W-NW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. FLOW WILL BE
RIGHT AROUND 310 FROM MID MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON AT 7 TO 10
KT...BEFORE BACKING A BIT BY LATE AFT TO THE W. AN OCCASIONAL GUST
UP TO 15 KT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFT
HOURS. RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUE EVE WITH A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FLOW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS SOME CONCERN
FOR MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING DURING THE 06Z TO 12Z TUE TIME FRAME FOR
THE 30H TAFS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.WED-WED NIGHT...SUB-VFR LIKELY IN RA. ESE-SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT
GUSTING UP TO AROUND 20 KT LATE WED AFTN-EVE THEN W-NW WINDS
AROUND 20 KT GUSTING UP TO 35 KT LATER WED NIGHT.
.THU...IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY. NW G30-40KT.
.FRI...VFR.
.SAT...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
WINDS STARTING TO BACK SW AND GUST OVER 20 KT AT 44017. SHOULD SEE
MINIMAL SCA CONDS FROM THERE ON EAST THIS MORNING...SO SCA
REMAINS IN EFFECT ONLY ON THE OCEAN E OF MORICHES INLET.

WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE ON WED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. SCA CRITERIA
ARE LIKELY TO BE REACHED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY.

WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
GALES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THEREFORE...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WATCH
CONSIDERING THE HIGH AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE STRENGTHENING WINDS
WITH THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. GALES THEN
LOOK TO END THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT WINDS AND SEAS STILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...WITH 5 FT SEAS NOT DIMINISHING ACROSS THE EASTERN
OCEAN WATERS UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.

SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLY RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH
ANOTHER APPROACHING SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOW TRACK AND THEREFORE ASSOCIATED QPF WITH THE MID WEEK STORM
HAVE TRENDED NORTHWARD...SO ONLY EXPECT BASIN AVG QPF OF 1/2 TO 1
INCH FOR SOUTHERN CT...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR NE
NJ. LOWER QPF OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH EXPECTED FOR NYC METRO AND LONG
ISLAND. LOCAL AMTS OF ABOUT 1/2 INCH HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE
IN TSTMS. THE BULK OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD BE RAIN.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLIMATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
RECORD LOW TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BE TIED OR BROKEN AT MOST LOCAL
CLIMATE SITES THU AND THU NIGHT...

TEMPS FOR THU MAR 13...

               RECORD LOW
                MAXIMUM     FCST
NEWARK.........32 IN 1980   32
BRIDGEPORT.....33 IN 1980   28
CENTRAL PARK...27 IN 1896   30
LAGUARDIA......33 IN 1980   31
KENNEDY........33 IN 1980   30
ISLIP..........34 IN 1989   28


TEMPS FOR FRI MAR 14...

               RECORD LOW
                MINIMUM     FCST
NEWARK.........17 IN 1980   17
BRIDGEPORT.....16 IN 1980   13
CENTRAL PARK... 8 IN 1896   19
LAGUARDIA......18 IN 1980   22
KENNEDY........19 IN 1980   18
ISLIP..........17 IN 1989   13
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER THAT SERVES THE NEW YORK CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO RADIO FREQUENCY
INTERFERENCE WITH THE U.S COAST GUARD TRANSMITTER.

FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FOLLOWING PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT (ALL LOWER CASE):
WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/OKX/PRODUCTS/STATIC.TXT

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/SEARS
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/PICCA
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN/PICCA
LONG TERM...GOODMAN/PICCA/SEARS
AVIATION...JMC/DW
MARINE...GOODMAN/PICCA/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN
CLIMATE...PICCA
EQUIPMENT...