Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 060007 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 707 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST THROUGH FRIDAY THEN PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES PASS TO THE NORTH. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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FORECAST UPDATE TO KEEP POPS GOING FOR JUST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO FOR ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOWFALL. LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. AS A RESULT...WE WILL ALLOW THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AND WILL REPLACE WITH AN SPS. EXPECT DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND 20. FOR THE LATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT UNDER THE NWS WEB PAGE TOP NEWS OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...AS AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE AREA...NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS OF 0 TO 15 DEGREES TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF AROUND 0 DEGREES AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY...IN THE MID 20S AND 15-20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL ON FRI NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO LOCATIONS NORTH OF NYC. ANOTHER WAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A THIRD WAVE LATE MONDAY...HOWEVER THINKING THE BEST CHANCE OF POPS WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. THE REGION IS THEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S SATURDAY. A MODERATION WILL THEN COMMENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS ALOFT GRADUALLY RISE...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SNOW IS WINDING DOWN...AND CONDS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 00-02Z FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW UNTIL THEN WILL RESULT IN IFR CONDS. RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES A BAND EXTENDING FROM LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...THROUGH NORTHERN NJ...AND INTO SE PA...BUT OBS ARE NOT INDICATING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND. ONCE SNOW ENDS...VFR. N/NW WINDS 10-15 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KT LATE TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME LGT/VRB LATE FRIDAY. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR BY 01Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR BY 01Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR BY 01Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR BY 01Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR BY 02Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
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&& .MARINE... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS FOR FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS AROUND 5 FEET ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 11 AM ON FRIDAY. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO FORECAST UNTIL 11 AM FRIDAY AS WELL. SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS SAT IN THE WAKE OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRES. OTHERWISE...SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S MAY RESULT IN THE START OF ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. && .EQUIPMENT... NOAA WEATHER RADIO WEEKLY TEST WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY BETWEEN 11 AM AND NOON DUE TO ON GOING HAZARDOUS WEATHER. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/GC NEAR TERM...BC/GC SHORT TERM...GC LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...IRD MARINE...BC/GC HYDROLOGY...BC/GC EQUIPMENT...GC

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