Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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676 FXUS61 KOKX 231814 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 114 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will give way to a warm front this evening and then a cold front late tonight. Low pressure moving into the upper Great Lakes will send another warm front toward the area Saturday night into Sunday, then a trailing weak cold front will pass through Sunday night. High pressure will build in from Monday through Wednesday. Another low forming over the Plains states during mid week will then likely approach from Wednesday night into Thursday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Forecast overall remains on track with slight adjustments made to temperatures, dewpoints, and POPs to better match observed trends. Forecast temperatures and dewpoints are within a few degrees of observed values. SPS still in effect for spotty light freezing rain or freezing drizzle across some interior zones with some locations still below freezing. Otherwise, light rain moving in from the west this afternoon but radar trends show some breaks so made for occasional wording in forecast. Temps should warm to just above freezing across the interior late this afternoon, with the rest of the area already well above freezing. This is due to a departing high off the New England coast, and shifting winds to the east/southeast which will allow for at least some warming. A tenth of an inch to a quarter inch of rain accum is expected. Temperatures warm through the 40s, and should rise just above 40 near the coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
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A warm front followed quickly by a cold front late as low pressure tracks well to the north. Any lingering light rain ends this evening, and some breaks in the clouds are possible as high pressure builds across the Great Lakes Region. As winds shift to the SW, then west, and plenty of clouds remain, expect temperatures to hold steady for most of the night, mid 30s to around 40. On Saturday, high pressure to the north once again yields to an approaching low pressure center and warm front. Rain chances will increase late in the day ahead of this more robust system. Temperatures warm through the 40s, likely exceeding 50 degrees across the area.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The last in a series of upper level impulses riding atop the upper ridge to our south will approach Sat night into Sunday, bringing a shot of moderate rain and gusty E winds ahead of a warm front lifting toward the area from the south. As the associated primary low lifts across the upper Great Lakes into Ontario, a weak triple- point low should form close to the area late day Sunday, with the chance that parts of Long Island could briefly get in the warm sector before a weak cold front passes through at night. Forecast for Mon calls for dry conditions as sfc high pressure builds in, but may have to keep an eye on a weak low passing to the south Mon night for any northward trend as its associated upper trough passes across. Broad upper ridging should build in its wake for Tue-Wed. High Temps Mon-Wed will be on the mild side, with highs close to 10 degrees above avg. A broad area of WAA ahead of low pressure forming over the Plains states should bring precip chances beginning Wed night, and then more so Thu into Thu night. Weak in-situ cold air damming as sfc high pressure pulls away could result in a period of light wintry wx well inland late Wed night into Thu morning, otherwise rain expected into Thu evening. Per current operational 00Z GFS/ECMWF forecast, a secondary low fcst to develop off the Mid Atlantic coast could pull enough cold air down from the N-NE to change precip back to snow or a wintry mix especially inland late Thu night. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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High pressure over the Canadian maritime and extending along the northeast coast moves east this afternoon as a wave of low pressure approaches. The low passes to the south through 05Z Saturday. High pressure builds to the north through Saturday. MVFR to IFR ceilings early becomes IFR by late this afternoon as light rain develops. IFR with light rain and fog continues into this evening. The rain ends late tonight with conditions improving to MVFR, then back up to VFR after 10Z Saturday, and remaining VFR through Saturday. E winds become SE this afternoon 10 kt or less. Winds diminish this evening, possibly becoming light and variable before becoming NW Saturday morning. A brief period of LLWS is possible 02Z to 07Z. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Varying ceilings from MVFR to IFR until later this afternoon, then becoming IFR. Low confidence in IFR ceiling heights. Marginal confidence in LLWS. KLGA TAF Comments: Varying ceilings from MVFR to IFR until later this afternoon, then becoming IFR. Low confidence in IFR ceiling heights. Marginal confidence in LLWS. KEWR TAF Comments: Varying ceilings from MVFR to IFR until later this afternoon, then becoming IFR. Low confidence in IFR ceiling heights. Marginal confidence in LLWS. KTEB TAF Comments: Varying ceilings from MVFR to IFR until later this afternoon, then becoming IFR. Low confidence in IFR ceiling heights. Marginal confidence in LLWS. KHPN TAF Comments: Varying ceilings from MVFR to IFR until later this afternoon, then becoming IFR. Low confidence in IFR ceiling heights. Marginal confidence in LLWS. KISP TAF Comments: Varying ceilings from MVFR to IFR until later this afternoon, then becoming IFR. Low confidence in IFR ceiling heights. Marginal confidence in LLWS. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .Saturday afternoon...VFR. Becoming MVFR late in the afternoon with a chance of rain. .Saturday Night-Sunday...MVFR/IFR in rain. E wind 10-15kt, G20-25kt. .Sunday night-Wednesday...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... With gusty easterly winds this morning, and seas running around 5 ft, SCA remains in effect over the ocean waters. Conditions improve as a warm front, then cold front pass late in the day and this evening. SE winds shift to the west tonight, then lighten as they turn to the NW Saturday. E winds between departing high pressure and an approaching warm front should reach SCA levels on all waters late Sat night into Sunday morning. These winds could reach minimal gale force on the ocean Sunday morning. Too early for any headlines, but a gale watch might eventually be required if confidence in this scenario increases. Hazardous ocean seas could linger thereafter into Mon morning. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are expected late today and tonight with rainfall amounts less than a quarter inch. Expecting up to an inch of rain on Sunday with the last in a series of passing disturbances. Another 1/2 to 1 inch liquid equivalent possible Wed night into Thu night, mostly in the form of rain. Rainfall intensity/duration do not suggest more than local nuisance ponding for Sunday. && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) is off the air for an extended period of time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ350- 353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Goodman/PW NEAR TERM...Goodman/JM/PW SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...Goodman AVIATION...19 MARINE...Goodman/PW HYDROLOGY...Goodman/PW EQUIPMENT...

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